SSHP with VAR CapabilitiesTracy Howieson

WGRFCAugust 8, 2007

Project ScopeFunded by the 2006 Hurricane SupplementalIncorporates VAR capabilities to update SAC-SMA

states for SSHPAvailable SAC-SMA state adjustments

RFC Transferred States Unadjusted States VAR Adjusted States

VAR capabilities allow WFO to maintain SAC-SMA states without overhead from RFC

WGRFC to test VAR results and new SSHP functionalitySelect WFO’s to test functionality before national

deployment

VAR Variational Assimilation ProgramAdjusts soil moisture states for SAC-SMA by

assimilating to the following data sets:Initial SAC-SMA StatesMean Areal Precipitation (MAPX)Mean Areal Potential Evaporation (MAPE)Stream flow

VAR adjusts the SAC-SMA state variables and the MAPX and MAPE estimates such that the resulting model simulation matches the observed.

RFC Transfer StatesRFC tasks for producing SAC-SMA States for

SSHPDevelop 1-hr models in OFS for all SAC-SMA

SSHP locationsRFC run 1-hr models daily to ensure accurate

states Not currently done at most RFCs

RFC transfer SAC-SMA states once a day to WFO Transfer capability in existing SSHP

This requires considerable overhead on RFC staff

VAR Updating of SAC-SMA StatesWFO would be able to select to update SAC-

SMA states locally using the VAR capabilityProduces two different time series

VAR Adjusted Unadjusted VAR

VAR runs hourly from cronRFC states update once daily

VAR process creates time series and stores results in the fcst_discharge data base table.

User can select desired time series to base forecast on

UVAT2 July 21, 2007 12ZUnadjusted VAR Time

Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

UVAT2 July 21, 2007 13ZUnadjusted VAR Time

Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

UVAT2 July 21, 2007 14ZUnadjusted VAR Time

Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

UVAT2 July 21, 2007 15ZUnadjusted VAR Time

Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

UVAT2 July 21, 2007 16ZUnadjusted VAR Time

Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

UVAT2 July 21, 2007 17ZUnadjusted VAR Time

Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

UVAT2 July 21, 2007 18ZUnadjusted VAR Time

Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

UVAT2 July 21, 2007 19ZUnadjusted VAR Time

Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

Current Testing ResultsDatabase Issues

Processes not finishing before next process initiated Crashed database during flood event

Developer has made changes to account for this issue

VAR Fortran ProgramVAR does not run successfully but a time series

is created and stored in databaseDeveloper is working with VAR scientist to

rectify

WGRFC providing feedback on GUI functionality

Future WorkIncorporate routing operation to allow for

non-headwater locationsLag/K method

Incorporate current work in VAR project Handling timing errors due to unit hydrograph

Target Date for deploymentOB 9

Live Demonstration