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Housing, jobs and transit in a local and regional context Egon Terplan | June 2014
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Transcript of Spur housing and jobs in mountain view_june 2014_2.0
Housing, jobs and transit in a local and regional context!Egon Terplan | June 2014!
Outline!
• Who is SPUR?!• The regional context!• The housing problem: Growth in the price of housing not
matched by growth in incomes for most.!• Why this is happening:!
– High demand.!– Chronic underproduction.!– Difficult process.!
• Some solutions!
The SPUR Urban Center in San Francisco SPUR San Jose launched in 2009!
SPUR promotes good planning and good governmentthrough research, education and advocacy
SPUR: what we do!
• original policy research !• policy advocacy!• monthly magazine: The Urbanist!• exhibitions!• forums, panels, and speakers!
SPUR 3-city strategy !!San Francisco(founded in 1910)!pop. 825,000 – 49 sq. mi.!!San Jose (launched in 2009) ! !!pop. 985,000 – 180 sq. mi.!
projected growth by 2040:!470,000 jobs!120,000 housing units!!
Oakland (launching in…)!pop. 400,000 – 78 sq. mi.!
The regional context!
How do we accommodate expected growth…!
Source: MTC and ABAG, Jobs Housing Connec9on Strategy, 2012
…In such a way that reduces per capita GHG emissions !
Percent Reduction in Per Capita Emissions from 2005 to Target Year
2020 2035
Bay Area 7% 15%
Sacramento 7% 16%
San Diego 7% 13%
Los Angeles 8% 13%
Central Valley 5% 10%
9
Source: ARB Adopted GHG Targets, September 2010
…and accommodates housing for workers at all income levels.!
And encourages growth in places ideally with transit -- 38% of jobs projected to go to the three central cities!
Source: MTC and ABAG, Plan Bay Area, 2013
41% of the 660,000 projected housing units planned to go to the three central cities!
Source: MTC and ABAG, Plan Bay Area, 2013
The housing problem!
Rising housing costs !
With properties being bought quicker here than anywhere else nationally!
Source: Jed Kolko, Trulia, 2014!
Paired with declining incomes!
Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental Housing – Evolving Markets and Needs, 2013 !
And a decline in jobs in the middle. Nearly 40% of jobs paying less than $18/hour!
508
309
505
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
$30 and above $18 to $30 an hour Under $18 an hour
Bay Area Total Job Openings 2010-‐20 (Thousands)
Source: Employment Development Department
In an environment with increasing renters!
Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental Housing – Evolving Markets and Needs, 2013 !
And many communities with lower incomes!
Source: ABAG, Fair Housing and Equity Assessment, 2014 !
Some spend over half their income on rent!
Source: ABAG, Fair Housing and Equity Assessment, 2014 !
Workers across the income spectrum - even higher earners - are feeling the crunch!
Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental Housing – Evolving Markets and Needs, 2013 !
Some answers Why is housing so expensive in the Bay Area? Part I: We don’t build enough.!
Since 1980 –the time of Prop 13, we’ve added few homes (and have had slower job growth too)!
Source: SPUR Analysis, ABAG Bay Area Census!
Since 1969, new construction in San Francisco has averaged only about 2,000 units per year!
2,045
1,215
2,380
1,578
1,516 790
1,978
1,002
2,581
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Units Authorized for Construction
Units Completed from New Construction
Housing units authorized vs. housing units completed, San Francisco 1969-2012!
Supply matters – the most expensive markets do not build much housing.!
Source: Jed Kolko, Trulia, “Where Buying a Home is Within Reach of the Middle Class.” 2014, Available at: http://www.trulia.com/trends/2014/05/middle-class-may-2014/!
Most recent housing is produced in San Jose, followed by SF and Dublin!
Total housing produc1on in 2013
Mountain View produced 37 units in 2013 (Palo Alto – 89)
Source: CA Department of Finance!
3,578
2,377
1,124
Very little low-income housing has been built!
Source: ABAG, Fair Housing and Equity Assessment, 2014 !
And some affordable housing is at risk of being converted to market rate!
Source: ABAG, Fair Housing and Equity Assessment, 2014 !
Housing and jobs are not evenly distributed!
This mismatch leads to in-commuting and congestion.!
Why is housing so expensive in the Bay Area? Part II: There is high demand to be here.!
The fastest-growing portion of the economy is the highly specialized knowledge services sector!
Knowledge services = professional services, so[ware, IT, finance, informa9on.
Source: SPUR Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics!
Knowledge jobs want to be in the Bay Area. The rise of technology reinforces the need for more face-to-face work Even though we can work anywhere, the office isn’t going away…and is now the place for collaborative work!
Gensler Consulting
Johnson Wax, Racine WIFrank Lloyd Wright 1936
Why is housing so expensive in the Bay Area? Part III: We make it difficult to add new housing.!
And every community has its own reasons why it doesn’t want to approve housing.!
Protect “neighborhood character”.!Prevent increase in traffic.!Stop negative impact on city services.!Reduce threat of gentrification and displacement.!Revise definition from urban to suburban. !
The planning process and requirements mean it is expensive to build new housing!
Source: SPUR analysis, http://www.spur.org/publications/article/2014-02-11/how-make-san-francisco-affordable-again!
Caveat 1: What about shuttles?Employee shuttles are not the problem – they are the symptom.!
Employee shuttles are about land use.Most of the region’s office jobs are just a few miles from rail transit. That is a “last mile” gap or barrier and is a key reason why most people drive.!
Apple
San Jose HSR
Mtn View
Palo Alto
Redwood City Cisco
= Rail sta1on
Many des1na1ons are not on transit
And opposition to shuttles in SF isn’t always about “gentrification”!
Caveat 2: What about jobs?Jobs are still very important to plan for.And they are actually more important than housing to put in the right place (i.e. near transit).!
Jobs near transit are more important than homes in geang people to use transit.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Residence and Workplace within ½ mile
Workplace Alone within ½ mile
Residence Alone within ½ mile
Residence and Workplace beyond ½ mile
Transit commute mode share, depending on proximity to regional rail (including ferry)
Source: San Francisco Bay Area MTC 2006
The percent who drive to work varies widely by job center –places not on transit with low driving have shuttles!
This is a place where we should be planning for significant employment growth.!
Transbay Development Program
Transbay area in the (near) future!
Solutions!Mountain View cannot on its own solve regional housing affordability; but neither can the region become affordable without Mountain View in the solu9on.
Conduct neighborhood planning that allows for increased growth!
How much growth is San Francisco planningin housing?! 51
How much growth is San Francisco planningin jobs?!
Upzone on or near transit!
Some places in the region have had almost no development since transit went in 40 years ago.!
North Berkeley BART – transit without development
But we need to think beyond the immediate station area. Example: Diridon / downtown San Jose can only accommodate another 50,000 jobs max!
Downtown San Jose is nearby many other job centers!
SAN JOSE’S CURRENT RAIL SYSTEM VTA LIGHT RAIL, CALTRAIN, ACE, CAPITOL CORRIDOR With current rail system concentrated at Diridon!
DOWNTOWN SAN JOSE WILL FURTHER BECOME THE SOUTH BAY’S TRANSIT HUB – BUT TRANSIT REMAINS LESS COMPETITIVE WITH DRIVING FOR MANY TRIPS And future rail that will have to connect seamlessly to these other nearby destinations – so subregions matter!
Work at a subregional level to promote housing!
Cities along a corridor could coordinate their planning for overall housing – reduce transportation spending to cities that do not collaborate?!
Increase production of affordable housing!
Subsidy per unit of affordable housing: $250,000!1,000 homes = $250,000,000!
!10,000 homes = $2,500,000,000!
!100,000 homes = $25,000,000,000!
Some affordable housing math: It’s expensive!
Local General Obligation bonds Some General Fund support for affordable housingBuy-down existing market rate units Convert underused hotels Use surplus local government land!
Process reforms!
Should housing be “as-of-right?”!
Rethink the corporate campus!
Retrofit suburbia to become more walkable!
It is hard to get support for housing with blank walls on the ground floor (for parking)Establish a policy defining active use requirements on ground floors along public streets.!
Encourage student housing!
Protect existing residents from being pushed out!
• Expand tenant protections such as longer notification periods.!
• Provide tenants with legal help during eviction process.!
• Help lower-income homeowners to secure more value from property (such as becoming Airbnb host).!
Encourage and legalize secondary units – this could increase total housing in SF by 1/3!
Hard questions!
Should we discourage pied-á-terres?!
Does Airbnb help or hurt?!
Is the clash between protecting community character and affordability inevitable?!
Is improving transit access to lower-cost locations an acceptable solution for affordability?!
The Bay Area is a part of a megaregion that includes Sacramento to Merced. !
Map shows the proposed boundaries based on SPUR’s analysis of the Northern California megaregion!
Source: GreenInfo Network mapping for SPUR
Summary!
• The region’s housing issues took many years to create.!
• They will not be solved immediately.!• While the challenges are regional – the
solutions start locally.!
Thank you
