Spruce Budworm Early Intervention Strategy · 2018-11-21 · Intervention Strategy (EIS)? A...
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Spruce Budworm Early Intervention StrategyDerek MacFarlane & Kevin Porter
NRCan – CFS, Fredericton
CIF E-Lecture, Nov 21, 2018
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Context• Easternsprucebudworm(SBW)isthemostdestructivepestforspruce-fir
forestsinCanada.– AnoutbreakinQuebecisexpandingintoAtlanticCanada.
• NRCanresearchersdiscoveredkeyprocessestriggeringoutbreaks:– Thisknowledgebecamethebasisfortheconceptofanearlyinterventionstrategy(EIS)
targetinglowinsectpopulationsbeforetreedamageoccurs;– Budget2014provided$10Mover4yearstoAtlanticCanadaOpportunityAgency(ACOA)
forthePhaseIoftheEIS.
• EISincludesapplyinginsecticidesoversmallareastopreventoutbreaks:– EISislesscostlythantraditionalapproacheswhichfocusonprotectingtreesfromdying
beforetheycanbeharvested.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
The SituationSprucebudwormhasreachedNewBrunswickandposesasignificantthreattoAtlanticCanada’sforests
Thelastoutbreakdestroyedhundredsofmillionsofcubicmetresofspruce-
firforest
Theimpactsofanoutbreakarefarreachingandcouldbedevastating
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
TrendsofQuebecSBWOutbreak
2017
LightModerateSevere
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
The Consequences of an Outbreak5
- Recreationaluses- Communityimpacts
- Water- Wildlife
- Woodsupply- Jobs- Tourism- Costofresponse
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Impact in Atlantic Canada -by the Numbers
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
What has been the traditional response?
• Where defoliation is identified, extensive spraying over large areas in
attempt to keep trees alive
• Public concerns about large spray programs
• Annual control cost of $50 to $100 million or more, as infestation builds.
• Downstream job and economic losses due to loss of wood supply.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
8Natural Resources Canada InnovationEIS is the product of novel research led by Canadian Forest Service scientists over
30yrs – led by Dr. Jacques Regniere
1. an initial drop in population occurs before natural factors take over and keep it
endemic
2. mortality from natural enemies remains very high for long periods in endemic
phase
3. observed lack of mating success at low populations
Hypothesis: Early detection and treatment of low populations will be an effective
means of avoiding an outbreak
A first ever attempt at area-wide management of a native forest insect
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
What is the Early
Intervention Strategy (EIS)?
Astrategytocombatalarge-scalesprucebudwormoutbreakinAtlanticCanada
R&DledbyNRCan-CanadianForestServiceand5universities
Includes:• Monitoringpopulationstodetecthot
spots• Targetedinsecticidetreatmenttoprevent
spread• Proactivepubliccommunicationsand
engagementonprojectactivitiesandresults
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
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About the HealthyForestPartnership
A unique regional collaboration of
scientists, academia, industry, citizens,
and all levels of government to apply and
test EIS to avoid a spruce budworm
outbreak in Atlantic Canada
Our goal is to keep our forests healthy
and productive for future generations
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Healthy Forest Partnership
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
EIStreatments2014-2018:
2014
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
2015
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
2016
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
2017
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
2018
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Keyresult#1:
Ingeneral,areasarenot
beingtreatedin
successiveyears.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
2017
1973 plotsinN.B.57% positive109 plots≥7/branch14 high&2 extreme
Keyresult#2:
L2populationsaremuch
higherinadjacentQC
thaninNB.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
2014
Theprogressionof
defoliationinQC
2014-2017:
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
2015
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
2016
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
2017
Keyresult#3:
Following4yearsofEIS
treatments,theQC-NBborder
isevidentfromtheairby
defoliationontheQCside
versusnonevisibleinNB.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Snow? …….in July??
Or,isit……sprucebudworm???
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
The Importance of
Ongoing Research
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Monitoring & Early
Detection
Communication & Outreach
Relationship to Climate Change
Efficacy & Environmental
Safety
Impacts on Ecosystems
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Federal Budget 2018• Budget2018providedupto$74millionoverfouryears,startingin2018-19,and
$750,000ongoingforEISPhaseII• 60:40cost-sharingbetweentheGoC,andprovincesandforestindustry• NRCanistheleadDepartment• PhaseIIisacontinuationandexpansionofPhaseI.Therearetwomainobjectives:
– ReduceSBWpopulationstopreventexpansionofoutbreakinAtlanticCanada;– ImproveknowledgeandtoolstoaddresscurrentandfutureSBWoutbreaks.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Program Description• TheEISPhaseIIinitiativeconsistsofthefollowingfouractivitystreams:
– Monitoring(Provincial/Industryfunding)
– InsecticideApplicationResearch/Operations(GoC andProvincial/Industryfunding)
– ScientificResearch(GoC funding)• NRCaninternalresearch• Contributionstoexternalresearchorganizations
– Communications(Provincial/Industryfunding)
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Funding• CFS-ledResearch(internal)
– 6-8FTEs/yr;2FTEsongoing– Research:$1.1M/yr;$560Kongoing
• Externally-ledResearch(Gs&Cs)
– $1.5M/yr
• InsecticideApplicationOperations(Gs&Cs)
– $60.2Mover4years
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
What is the efficacy of our EIS treatments?R. Johns (AFC) & D. Pureswaran (LFC)
- assessedtreatmentefficacyat123sites
- datafromprespray(~L4)toadultcollected
- preliminaryresults
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
- mortalitywasextremelyhighcomparedto2017,butwasfurtherenhancedintreatedsites
- notyetidentifiedwhymortalitywashigh,butsuspectnaturalenemies(&perhapslatefrost)
- Perhapsthetreatmentsarepushingthepopulationslowenoughthatthenaturalenemiesandweather(latefreezeeventinJune)arekeepingthemlow
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Are there any effects on non-target species?V. Martel (LFC)
- intensivesurveysfornon-targetcaterpillars
- repeatedassessmentovertheseasonforabundance,diversity¶sitismofthebroaderLepidopteracommunity
- assesstheirresponsetoinsecticidesandpotentialimpactonanynaturalenemiestheymightharbour
- allindividualsidentified(Lep +potentialparasitoids)usingDNA
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Modeling SBW population dynamicsB. Cooke (GLFC) & J. Régnière (LFC)
Developingapredictivemodelto:
• Describethespatialandtemporalpatternsofoutbreaks,bothlocalpopulationdynamicsandmothmigration
• Testmanagementstrategiesthroughspatiallyexplicitsimulation.AversionofthismodelwillbeincorporatedintheSBWDecisionSupportSystem(DSS)
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Other CFS research projects under this initiative
• SBWpheromonestudies - P.Silk&L.Roscoe(AFC)
• SBWmanagementtoconserveecologicalintegrityofforestwatersheds- E.Emilson (GLFC)&M.Stastny (AFC)
• ForecastingforEISinthecontextofclimatechange- M.Stastny (AFC),J-N.Candau (GLFC),E.Moise (AFC)
• ImpactsofSBWonforestcarbondynamics- J-N.Candau (GLFC)
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Citizen Science: Budworm Tracker
2016
• ~400+Trackersperyear• >80%returnrate• Outreachandpublic
engagement
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Communications: A key to success
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Communications: A key to success- both proactive and reactive
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
2018
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
2018
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Our interpretation of the 2018 results?
• Populations are down in NB for the first time in the last 5 years.
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• Defoliation surveys and moth counts from pheromone trapping reinforce this.
• Accordingly, treatment area expected to be smaller in 2019.
• Positive sign for the EIS which aims to suppress growing populations to levels that
can be kept in check by natural mortality factors.
• Expect populations to go up and down over time but we are cautiously optimistic that
EIS will continue to hinder an outbreak.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Key Successes
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Reducing populations
Innovative science with broad
practical applications
Successful public engagement &
citizen science
Avoiding serious defoliation and wood supply losses
Unique and powerful partnership between industry, universities,
governments and communities
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
To check in on our progress or ask questions42
Checkoutourwebsite:
www.HealthyForestPartnership.ca
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Questions?43