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11 APRIL 2013
© GSMA 2014
Spectrum Management Trends & Challenges
Nepal, 31 July 2014
Joe Guan, Spectrum Policy & Regulatory Affairs Advisor,
Asia Pacific, GSMA
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
AGENDA
Mobile broadband trends
Spectrum policy
Spectrum roadmap
Refarming
Digital Dividend
Future mobile spectrum (WRC-15)
How to license new mobile spectrum
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
GSMA BY THE NUMBERS
MOBILE BROADBANDTHE TRENDS
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
EVOLUTION OF MOBILE TECHNOLOGY
…LEADING TO THE PROGRESSION OF MOBILE SERVICES
VOICETelephony
Messaging
DATAEmail
Browsing
VIDEOYouTube
Conferencing
SMART APPSmMoney
mHealth@
!
LTE
HSPA+HSPA
CDMA, EV-DO, WIMAX, TD-SCDMA
AND OTHER TECHNOLOGIES
EDGEGPRSGSM
LTELong-Term
Evolution
© GSMA 2014
CONTINUED GROWTH IN MOBILE
Source: The Mobile Economy Report 2014, GSMA, February 2014
Global SIM-enabled connections reached 6.9 billion in 2013 and are expected to reach
9.2 billion by 2020 (excluding M2M)
Global subscribers reached 3.4 billion in 2013 and are expected to reach 4.3 billion by 2020
© GSMA 2014
MOBILE DATA ROCKETING
Source: Ericsson mobility report - June 2014
2009 2010 2011 2012
EFFICIENT SPETRUM MANAGEMENT
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
SPECTRUM POLICY LANDSCAPE
SPECTRUM
PLANNINGSPECTRUM
MANAGEMENT
SPECTRUM
LICENSING
Band plan
harmonisation
Cross-border
interference
Spectrum
road map
Spectrum
efficiency
Spectrum
sharing
TV white space
Auctions and
cost of access
Licence
obligations
Technology
neutrality
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
SPECTRUM LICENSING
A STABLE LICENSING FRAMEWORK FACILITATES INVESTMENT
Establish the licence-renewal
approach two to four years in
advance
Avoid network investment being
postponed, as a result
Publish the renewal criteria, as well
as the terms and conditions to be
applied to the renewed licence
A RENEWAL PROCESS SHOULD BE DEFINED WELL BEFORE LICENCE EXPIRATION
Conduct a public
written consultation
before key
decisions
Facilitate
international
harmonisation
Remove service
and technology
restrictions
Develop a
road map for
spectrum release
Ensure rights to
use spectrum are
clearly specified
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
SPECTRUM HARMONISATION MATTERS
ROAMINGharmonised
bands
AFFORDABILITYeconomies
of scale
CHOICEcompetition
MOBILE
SPECTRUM
Brings down the cost of mobile
devices
Enables people to roam
Reduces interference issues
along borders
SCALEbillions of
subscribers
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
SPECTRUM ROADMAP: WHY IT MATTERS
A spectrum roadmap is essential to ensure there is enough spectrum
to meet surging demand for mobile services
Pace of mobile technology change is increasing, with decreasing cycle time for
new technology and a corresponding need for increased agility. This increases
the requirement for good planning and sound allocation frameworks
Balance the time to relocate by the incumbents against the costs of delaying
the introduction of new technologies – trade-offs;
Allocate spectrum for new uses in advance of the technology becoming
available so that companies have plenty of time for planning, capital
expenditure and implementation
A spectrum roadmap helps
Government’s forecast future trends and manage its work and risks
Industry with increased certainty about the government’s future allocation plans
and management of radio spectrum.
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
SPECTRUM ROADMAP: WHAT IS IN IT?
Key themes for a spectrum roadmap
Emerging challenges and opportunities to radio spectrum management
framework and approach, at least 3 – 5 years into the future
Identify future technological trends and drivers, and assess their impact
on spectrum policy and planning
Spectrum management work programme planned to address the
identified challenges and opportunities
A roadmap is an evolving document, to be updated at least once annually
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
SPECTRUM MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES
REFARMING
NEW MOBILE SPECTRUM
WRC-15
DIGITAL DIVIDEND
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
WHY REFARM?
Access to new spectrum takes time
Consumer demand is accelerating … fast!
Refarming maximises use of existing spectrum
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
TECHNOLOGY NEUTRALITY
Many of the original mobile licences were issued for a specific technology (e.g. GSM or
CDMA) which stops the band being ‘refarmed’ to a more efficient technology (e.g. LTE)
We support a licensing approach that allows any compatible, noninterfering technology
to be used in mobile frequency bands
Technology neutral licences encourage innovation and promote competition, allowing
markets to determine which technologies succeed, to the benefit of consumers
Spectrum allocations for IMT are technology-neutral. IMT technologies including GPRS,
EDGE, UMTS, HSPA, and LTE are standardised for technical coexistence
© GSMA 2014
MIGRATION TREND
One-third of global mobile connections will be 2G-only by 2020,
compared with 67% at the end of 2013.
Source: The Mobile Economy Report 2014, GSMA, February 2014
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
REFARMING FOR LTE
Global LTE frequency assignments for commercial launches, as of Sep 2013
MHz Global LTE commercial launches split by
frequency scenarios, as of Sep 2013
Global LTE connections supported
by up to 12 different frequency bands
Source: GSMA Intelligence
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
IDENTIFIED SPECTRUM BANDS
Asia Pacific Region
Coverage Bands (<1GHz) Capacity Bands (>1GHz)
20
MHz
824 894
The 850 band: 2x25 MHz
849 869 1920 2170
30
MHz
The 2100 band: 2x60 MHz
1980 2110
2300 2400
The 2300 band: 100 MHzThe 900 band: 2x35 MHz
880 915 925 960
10
MHz
703 803
The 700 band: 2x45 MHz
10
MHz
748 758
20
MHz
1710 1880
The1800 band: 2x75 MHz
1785 1805
2500 2690
The 2600 band: 2x70 MHz with 50 MHz unpaired TDD
2570 2620
TDD
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
DIGITAL DIVIDEND: APT700 IN ASIA PACIFIC
By allocating the
700MHz band to
mobile, countries have
the potential to
increase GDP impact
by tenfold
A total increase of US
$1trillion across Asia
Pacific by 2020
GSMA Mobile Economy Asia, 2013
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
REGIONAL COMMITMENTS
Adopted or leaning towards APT
Band plan
Afghanistan 30M
Australia 23M
Bangladesh 161M
Bhutan 0.7M
Brunei 0.4M
India 1,205M
Indonesia 249M
Japan 127M
Malaysia 29M
Maldives 0.4M
Nepal 30M
Pakistan 190M
Papua New Guinea 7M
Singapore 5M
Sri Lanka 21M
Tonga 0.1
Taiwan 23M
New Zealand 4M
TOTAL 1,890M
Adopted APT Band Plan
Slow Progress
Major issues lie in way of adoption
No information
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
APT700 IN LATIN AMERICA
Leaning towards APT Band Plan
Adopted APT Band Plan
Adopted US Band Plan
Colombia
May. 2012
Costa Rica
Mar. 2012
Chile
Feb. 2013
Uruguay
Dec. 2011
Mexico
Sep. 2012
Panama
Oct. 2012
Ecuador
Oct. 2012
Bolivia
Dec. 2012
Argentina
Dec. 2012
Brazil
Feb. 2013
Nicaragua
Venezuela
Apr. 2013
Dominican Rep
Apr. 2013
Adopted or leaning towards APT
Band plan
Brazil 195M
Mexico 117M
Colombia 47M
Argentina 41M
Peru 30M
Venezuela 30M
Chile 17M
Ecuador 16M
Dominican Rep. 10M
Costa Rica 5M
Panama 3M
Uruguay 3M
TOTAL 514M
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
CLEARING DIGITAL DIVIDEND SPECTRUM
1. Develop consumer proposition
2. Establish DTT branding and conformance regime
3. Develop communications plan
4. Plan and deploy DTT network
5. Establish receiver specifications and costs.
1. Decide on technology and standards
2. Implement licensing framework
3. Manage radio spectrum and coordination matters
1. Develop DSO policy and legal framework
2. Establish plan for ASO
3. Develop funding policy
4. Establish principles for Help Scheme
Source: Plum and Farncombe 2013
Government
Regulators
Industry
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
MORE DATA = MORE SPECTRUM
On average 600-800MHz additional
mobile spectrum needed by 2020
globally
Takes into account increasingly
spectrum efficient technology (e.g. LTE-
Advanced), network architectures (e.g.
cell splitting & small cells) and Wi-Fi
offload
This is in addition to the bands that are
already allocated to mobile an should be
licensed to meet data demand
More spectrum required to avoid a
network congestion and higher
consumer prices
New bands must be harmonised
globally, or at least regionally, to
create a wide range of low cost
equipment and enable roaming
Coverage and capacity bands
required for fast, low-cost, ubiquitous
services
Low frequency bands essential for
widespread mobile broadband access
including rural area
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
SPECTRUM ESTIMATES FROM WP5D
Source Australia China India Russia US GSMA
Doc. 5D/ 66 256 170 118 63 242
Estimated year Until 2020 2015, 2020 2017, 2020 2020 Until 2014 2020
Spectrum
requirements
Total requirement
of 1,081 MHz
(Additional
requirement of
300 MHz by 2020)
Total
requirement of
570-690 MHz
(by 2015)
Total
requirement of
1,490-1,810
MHz
(by 2020)
Additional
requirement of
300 MHz by
2017
Additional
requirement of
another 200 MHz
by 2020
Total
requirement of
1,065 MHz
(Additional
requirement of
385 MHz by
2020)
Additional
requirement of
275 MHz by
2014
Total
requirement of
1,600-1,800 MHz
Methodology Using an original
methodology
Using the
methodology in
Rec. ITU-R
M.1768-1
Using an original
methodology
Using an original
methodology
Using an original
methodology
Using a new
methodology to
complement the
methodology in
Rec. ITU-R
M.1768-1
AWG input documents:
Japan (AWG-14/INP-35): 1825 MHz by 2020
Korea (AWG-14/INP-63): 1340-1960 MHz by 2020
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
NEED TO MEET LONG-TERM DATA DEMAND
Allocations at WRC-15 mostly won’t be
licensed until 2020-2025 when data
demand will be much higher
– The ITU assumes a 44-80x increase in
mobile data between 2010 and 2020
Admins won’t need to license spectrum
allocated at WRC-15 until they are ready
– Existing services can continue & be
protected through coordination and
regulatory conditions
– BUT if new bands aren’t allocated then
admins will struggle to react to growing
data traffic
Admins not planning to use WRC-15 bands
in near-term will still benefit from lower
cost equipment for their later roll-outs
– Early movers generate economies of
scale so countries that deploy later
benefit from cheaper smartphones and
base stations etc..
– Economies of scale only generated
through the identification of harmonized
bands at WRC-15
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
NEW BANDS FOR MOBILE
RADIO SPECTRUM: IDENTIFIED MOBILE BANDS
1.8G
Hz
2.1G
Hz
2.6G
Hz
450–
470M
Hz
Dig
ital D
ivid
end
(700
/800
MH
z)
900M
Hz
2.3G
Hz
3.4–
3.6
GH
z
470–694/8
MHz
3.4–3.8
GHzCANDIDATE BANDS
FOR WRC-15
2.7–2.9 GHz1427
–
1518
MHz
3.8–4.2
GHz
1300
–
1400
MHz
GSMA had agreed widespread mobile
operator support for 4 new mobile
allocations
– Sub-700MHz UHF (470-694/8MHz)
– 2.7-2.9GHz
– L-Band (1300-1518MHz)
– C-Band (3.4-4.2GHz)
These bands can be harmonised
globally to drive lower cost
equipment/services
– Pursuing other bands risks creating a
fragmented market negatively impacting
equipment choice, price, roaming ability
and could create international interference
issues
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
HOW TO ASSIGN NEW SPECTRUM
… when there is competition for limited spectrum resources
… when demand is expected to exceed supply
AUCTIONS ARE
AN ECONOMICALLY EFFICIENT WAY
TO ALLOCATE SPECTRUM
AUCTIONS ARE NOT
THE ONLY OPTION AVAILABLE TO GOVERNMENT
FOR SPECTRUM ALLOCATION
Consultation with mobile operators and other
stakeholders is essential
AUCTIONS SHOULD
REFLECT THE LONG-TERM ECONOMIC VALUE OF THE
SPECTRUM, NOT MAXIMISE SHORT-TERM REVENUE FOR
GOVERNMENTS
Auctions should be fair, transparent and
designed for the specific market
circumstances
SPECTRUM FOR MOBILE
© GSMA 2014
SETTING AN AUCTION RESERVE
• Setting a realistic reserve price is complex but essential to ensure a minimum is paid
• BUT this minimum should reflect the socio-economic value of the spectrum NOT
just maximize tax revenues
• If too low it may encourage frivolous & speculative bidding
• If too high it creates several risks:
• Discourage participation by operators & serious potential new entrants
• Leads to non-optimal allocations or unsold spectrum depriving the public of new
services
• Minimise network investment leading to low quality, expensive services as operators
try to recoup their spectrum investment
• Reserve pricing should be set as low as possible to let the market determine the value
• Prices should be based on local market conditions (e.g. ARPU, GDP, competition etc.)
• International benchmarks are useful but local conditions more important
• Once agreed it should be subject to public consultation to ensure the auction design
is fair, transparent and appropriate for the specific market circumstances
© GSMA 2014
THANK [email protected]