SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer December 2011 Survey Findings Prepared by...

SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer

December 2011 Survey Findings

Prepared by Ipsos-Synovate

Release Date: 19th January 2012

2Ipsos-Synovate 2012

Study Objectives

• To determine the knowledge of the general public on:- The IEBC and its Mandate - Electoral Requirements (voter and presidential candidate) and - Electable Seats.

• To assess the perceptions of the general public towards the ICC process in regards to:

- Level of support- Reasons for support or non-support

• Preferred presidential candidate.

Methodology


Survey Methodology

Dates of polling 12th – 19th December 2011

Sample Size 2,000 respondents

Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size)

Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas

Data collection methodology

Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level

Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level


Sampling Frame Statistics

Ipsos-Synovate Sample Frame

statistics(December 2011)

Population Census as at

2009 (18 years +)

IIEC Voter Register

(August 2010 Referendum)

Registered Voters as at ECK 2007 Voter

Register

Base 2,000

19,462,360 12,616,627 14,088,302

Central 13% 13% 16% 16%

Coast 9% 9% 9% 8%

Eastern 15% 15% 16% 17%

Nairobi 10% 10% 10% 8%

North Eastern 5% 5% 3% 2%

Nyanza 13% 13% 11% 15%

Rift Valley 25% 25% 24% 23%

Western 10% 10% 11% 11%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

The IEBC and its Mandate


Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)

“Are you aware of the following organisations or institutions?” (By Total)

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

Base: Those aware of the IEBC (n=1 ,007)

“Are you aware of the following organisations or institutions?”(By age, gender & setting)

8

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

“Other than organizing elections, what are the other functions of the IEBC?” (By Total)

Base: n=1 ,007 (Those aware of the IEBC)

9

Voter Registration Requirements


Constitutional Requirements for Registration as a Voter

Article 83 (1):

A person qualifies for registration as a voter at elections or referenda if the person

(a) is an adult citizen

(b) is not declared to be of unsound mind and;

(c) has not have been convicted of an election offence during the preceding five years

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

“What are the requirements for you to register as a voter?” (By Total)


12

Intention to Vote in the Next General Election


The History of Voter Turnout in Kenya

Source: http://www.idea.int/vt/country_view.cfm?CountryCode=KE

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

“Do you intend to vote in the next general election?”(By Total)


15

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

“Do you intend to vote in the next general election?”(By Province)

Base: All Respondents16

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

“Do you intend to vote in the next general election?”(By Gender, Age and Setting)

Base: All Respondents17

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

“Why will you not vote in the next general election?”

Base: Those indicating that they do NOT intend to vote the next general elections (n = 180)

18

Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner


Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner

Article 138/4:A presidential candidate will be declared a winner if :

1. The candidate garners “50%+1” of all votes cast in the election and;

2. The candidate garners at least 25% in more than half (i.e. 24) of the 47 counties.


Those aware of “Candidate garners 50% +1 of all votes cast”

Base All Respondents; November (n=2,000) December (n=2,000)

Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner (By Total)


Those aware of “Candidate garners 50% +1 of all votes cast”

Base: All Respondents

Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner (By Province)


Those aware of “Candidate garners at least 25% of votes cast in more than half (i.e 24) of the 47 counties”

Base: All Respondents

Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner

(By Province)


Those aware of both requirements

Base All Respondents; December (n=2,000)

Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner (By Total)

Electable Positions


Electable Positions

New Constitution

1. President

2. Member of Parliament

3. Councilor

4. Governor

5. Senator

6. County Women’s Representative

7. County Assembly Representative

8. Mayor (Cities )

Old Constitution

1. President

2. Member of Parliament

3. Councilor

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

“Apart from the President, what other political positions will Kenyans be required to vote for in the next general election?” (By Total)


27

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

“Apart from the President, what other political positions will Kenyans be required to vote for in the next general election?”(By Province ) Focus on Senator and Governor


28

Ipsos-Synovate 2012


“Apart from the President, what other political positions will Kenyans be required to vote for in the next general election?”

Focus on County Women’s Representative

% of those aware of Women’s Representative as an electable position

29


Implications of this Study

• Voter education programmes

- Targeted campaigns to youth and women

- Regional communication strategies

The ICC Process

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

Those who support the ICC Process – Time Series


Oct-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Dec-110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

68%

57%61%

56%59%

54%

Before Ocampo 6 list was unveiled

After Ocampo 6 list was unveiled

Summons issued to appear at The Hague

Pre-ICC confirmation of hearing trials

Post-ICC confirmation of hearing trials

4 weeks prior to the ICC Confirmation of the charges

ruling% who support ICC Trials

32

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

“Why are you happy that The ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence (PEV)?”

Base: Those who support the ICC process (n=1,081)

33

Those who support trials ICC process – By Province

(Base All Respondents; December (n=2,000)

54%

46%

62%

47%

66%

44%

76%

40%

66%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Eastern

Nyanza Rift Valley

Western

% who support the ICC Process

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

“Why are you happy that The ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence (PEV)?”

Base: Those who support the ICC process (n=1,081)

34

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

Base: Those against the ICC process (n=707)

35

“Why are you unhappy that The ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence (PEV)?”

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 36

“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?”By Total

Ipsos-Synovate 2012 37

“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” – Time Series

Trend analysis is for the top 6 aspirants


In Conclusion

• The ICC ruling on whether to confirm or drop all or some of the charges is likely to change the political landscape and may have an impact of the presidential aspirant ratings.

• As politicians position themselves for action post the ICC Ruling, the varying support levels for the ICC Trials by region does point to potential regional political re-alignments.


Additional materials available

This press release is supported by the following materials; - A PowerPoint presentation - MS-word press releases - An audio recording in Kiswahili of the key findings - An audio recording of the press briefing in English

These materials can be downloaded from www.synovate.co.ke

http://www.synovate.co.ke/

Ipsos-Synovate 2012

Thank You

Q&A .

40

Detailed Poll Methodology


The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A

sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error

attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95%

confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target

population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 12 th and 19th, December

2011.

To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to

size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately

higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical

districts in Kenya.

The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they

allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for

quality control.

POLL METHODOLOGY


These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as

respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews.

The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random

starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4

households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was

then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known

as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In

cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3

callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field

interviewer substituted that household for another.

The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended

questions. Poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided,

including room for other (specify), no response and don’t know. This ensures that there is no bias at all with

the way the questions are asked.

Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum

of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field

managers made 20% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing.

Poll Methodology (Cont..)


Total Central Coast Eastern NairobiNorth Eastern Nyanza

Rift Valley Western

2,000 262 176 299 210 95 262 493 203

Urban 37% 37% 51% 24% 100% 21% 27% 29% 21%

Rural 63% 63% 49% 76% 0% 79% 73% 71% 79%

Sampling Frame – Urban & Rural


MethodologySample distribution – District Level

Province District Rural Urban Total

Central

Kiambu 24 34 58

Kirinyaga 33 10 43

Murang’a 43 10 53

Nyeri 38 12 50

Thika 28 30 58

Coast

Kilifi 26 10 36

Kwale 25 10 35

Malindi 12 10 22

Mombasa 0 55 55

Taita Taveta 13 5 18

Tana River 10 0 10

Eastern

Embu 15 10 25

Kitui 27 10 37

Machakos 31 32 63

Makueni 44 10 54

Mbeere 13 0 13

Meru Central 35 10 45

Meru North 42 0 42

Mwingi 19 0 19


MethodologySample distribution (continued)


Nairobi

Embakasi 0 30 30

Makadara 0 20 20

Pumwani 0 20 20

Kasarani 0 40 40

Dagoretti 0 30 30

Kibera 0 40 40

Westlands 0 30 30

North Eastern Garissa76 20 96

Nyanza

Bondo15 0 15

Gucha31 0 31

Kisii Central30 15 45

Kisumu15 26 41

Migori22 15 37

Nyamira (North Kisii)27 10 37

Rachuonyo20 5 25

Siaya31 0 31

For further information contact:

[email protected]

or

[email protected]

or

[email protected]

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