Southwest Kansas Groundwater Management District #3 Model Kansas Water Office Contract
46
Southwest Kansas Groundwater Management District #3 Model Kansas Water Office Contract A Kansas Water Plan Project Progress Report March 29, 2010
description
Southwest Kansas Groundwater Management District #3 Model Kansas Water Office Contract A Kansas Water Plan Project. Progress Report March 29, 2010. Major Progress. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Southwest Kansas Groundwater Management District #3 Model Kansas Water Office Contract
Southwest Kansas Groundwater Management District #3 Model
Kansas Water Office ContractA Kansas Water Plan Project
Progress ReportMarch 29, 2010
Major Progress
• PEST Calibration – 16 runs1) Power functions for recharge-precipitation2) Five-year water level differences 3) Weighting factor change for streamflow
Power P-R Functions
00
0
,
,0
PP PPa
PP R
b
P0 is threshold precipitation after which groundwater recharge occurs. For each recharge zone, P0, a and b are calibrated.
PEST Runs D-J• D: Change linear P-R segments to power functions.
Other settings same as Run B in TAC020810. • E: Change water-level difference targets from 1 year
to 5-year intervals. Other settings same as D.
Different runs derived from E -• F: Fix P-R power functions, calibrate PST+ K and Sy.• G: Fix P-R power functions and Sy, calibrate K.• H: Fix P-R power functions and K, calibrate Sy.• I: Use optimal values from H and recalibrate all
parameters. • J: Use optimal values from I and calibrate all
parameters, but lower the maximum limit for Sy (the calibrated Sy for sands and gravels from I was 39%).
PEST Runs K-S• K: Double the weighting factor for streamflow targets. Other
setting same as J.• L: Use log for K. Other settings same as J. • M: Decrease the weighting factor for streamflow targets by
half. Use log for K.• N: Increase precipitation recharge for zone 3. Calibrated
recharge for zone 3 too small.• O: Change precipitation recharge parameter settings for zone
2. Calibrated recharge for zone 2 not physically reasonable. • P: Further modify recharge parameter settings. Calibrated
recharge for zone 2 from O still not physically reasonable.• Q: Further modify recharge parameter and specific yield
settings. Precipitation recharge curve for zone 2 not reasonable. The Sy values considered a little too high after KGS internal team discussion.
• R and S: Similar to Q, fix K and Sy and further improve recharge parameters.
PEST Run RMS SummaryOverall
Predevelopment Heads (ft)
Water Level Difference (ft)
Streamflows
log(cfs)
B
(TAC020810)26.76 21.10
4.80 (1-yr interval)
0.85
D 27.56 21.704.85 (1-yr interval)
1.01
E 36.98 26.299.40 (5-yr interval)
1.29
F 32.26 21.69 9.37 1.20
G 31.32 21.08 9.31 0.94
H 31.28 21.08 9.27 0.93
I 31.21 21.14 9.22 0.84
J 31.31 21.24 9.22 0.85
K 31.28 21.18 9.25 0.84
L 31.06 20.99 9.22 0.85
PEST Run RMS SummaryOverall
Predevelopment Heads (ft)
Water Level Difference (ft)
Streamflows
log(cfs)
E 36.98 26.29 9.40 1.29
F 32.26 21.69 9.37 1.20
G 31.32 21.08 9.31 0.94
H 31.28 21.08 9.27 0.93
I 31.21 21.14 9.22 0.84
J 31.31 21.24 9.22 0.85
K 31.28 21.18 9.25 0.84
L 31.06 20.99 9.22 0.85
M 31.09 21.03 9.22 0.84
N 30.80 20.78 9.18 0.85
O 30.99 20.94 9.20 0.85
P 30.81 20.81 9.16 0.84
Q 31.38 21.13 9.32 0.93
R 31.23 21.18 9.22 0.83
S 32.53 22.53 9.16 0.83
Comparison to Previous Models
Model Changes
Head StatisticsStreamflows
Log(cfs) RMSRMS (ft) MAR (ft) RMAE(%)
TAC 09172009 35.69 25.33 1.44 1.07
PEST Run
TAC 0208201033.99 23.81 1.36 0.85
PEST Run R
TAC 0328201033.38 23.52 1.34 0.83
Model Results from PEST Run R
Current Model Recharge ZonesR
ow
Column
Zone 1
Calibrated P-R CurvesPrecipitation - Recharge Relationship
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Precipitation, inches/year
Rec
har
ge,
in
ches
/yea
r Zone 1 - AlluviumZone 2 - Terrace and Sand DuneZone 3 - Main AquiferZone 4 - Tributaries
Calibrated Synonymy K (ft/day) and Sy
Parameter SensitivityParameter value R Sens Parameter value R Sens
a11 8.21 0.2240 hy5 15.50 0.116a12 7.50 0.1807 hy6 62.55 1.488a13 10.17 0.0286 hy7 299.03 0.523a14 17.50 0.0233 hy8 299.13 10.540a21 0.47 0.6889 sy1 0.05 0.107a22 0.50 0.7471 sy2 0.08 0.126a23 0.05 0.1001 sy3 0.16 0.159a24 0.50 0.0331 sy4 0.24 0.229a31 0.45 0.2332 sy5 0.29 0.153a32 0.38 0.4009a33 0.20 0.0439a34 0.20 0.0042hy1 0.00 0.0014hy2 0.00 0.0007hy3 4.44 0.3782hy4 14.50 0.5231
Predevelopment T
ft2/d
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
17500
20000
22500
25000
1996-2007 T
ft2/d
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
17500
20000
22500
25000
Predevelopment-1966 Sy
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
1997-2007 Sy
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Predevelopment Precipitation Rechargein/yr
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
2007 Precipitation Rechargein/yr
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
Simulated vs. Observed Water Levels
The RMS (root mean square), MAR (mean absolute residual) and RMAE (relative mean absolute error) are: 33.38 ft and 23.52 ft and 1.34%.
1900
2300
2700
3100
3500
3900
1900 2300 2700 3100 3500 3900
Observed
Sim
ula
ted
Simulated vs. Observed Water Level Changes
-20
0
20
40
60
-20 0 20 40 60
Observed
Sim
ula
ted
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-20
0
20
40
60
80
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Observed
Sim
ula
ted
5 Years 10 Years
0
200
400
600
800
1000
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Year
Str
eam
Flo
w (
cfs
)
Dodge City OBS
Dodge City SIM
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Str
eam
Flo
w (
cfs
)
Garden City OBS
Garden City SIM
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Str
eam
Flo
w (
cfs)
Deerfield OBS
Deerfield SIM
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200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Str
eam
Flo
w (
cfs
)
Syracuse OBS
Syracuse SIM
Simulated Vs. Observed Ark River Flows
Syracuse RMS = 0.08
Deerfield RMS = 0.63
Garden City RMS = 0.46
Dodge City RMS = 0.85
0
20
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80
100
120
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180
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Year
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Flo
w (
cfs
)
Cimarron Forgan OBS
Cimarron Forgan SIM
0
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80
120
160
200
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Year
Str
eam
Flo
w (
cfs
)
Crooked Cr Englewood OBS
Crooked Cr Englewood SIM
Cimarron River and Crooked Creek Flows
Crooked Creek RMS = 0.40 Cimarron
RMS = 0.10
Well Hydrographs
Paleo
KearnyFinneyArkN
GrayArkN
KearnyFinneyArkSHoFo
GrHsCimNGrayArkS-CCStanton
MT StSeCimS
ME
Well Hydrographs - Paleo Ark ValleyUSGS Well 380223102010301 (R22C9)
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USGS Well 380105101534401 (R24C15)
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USGS Well 375722101402101 (R28C28)
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USGS Well 375531101342601 (R30C33)
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USGS Well 375305101215502 (R33C44)
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Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 375328101305701 (R33C36)
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USGS Well 375841101453401 (R27C23)
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USGS Well 374917101242701 (R38C42)
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USGS Well 375149101341601 (R35C33)
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Well Hydrographs – Kearny & Finney North of Ark
USGS Well 381242100514201 (R11C72)
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USGS Well 380713101075501 (R17C57)
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ater
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feet
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USGS Well 380715100503701 (R17C73)
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USGS Well 380253101045501 (R22C60)
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Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 380155100543401 (R23C69)
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Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 380057101181401 (R24C48)
2900
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USGS Well 380109100570201 (R24C67)
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Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 375828101103101 (R27C55)
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Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 375702101145602 (R29C51) [max Rch > 4.0]
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USGS Well 375613100472702 (R30C76)
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Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 375558100430401 (R30C80)
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Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 380202100394701 (R23C83)
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Observation Simulation Recharge
Well Hydrographs – Gray North of ArkUSGS Well 380202100394701 (R23C83)
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Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 375811100145901 (R27C105)
2500
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Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 375736100331301 (R28C89)
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USGS Well 375451100254401 (R31C96)
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esObservation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 375339100331401 (R33C89)
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1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
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Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 375159100384101 (R34C84)
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USGS Well 375018100171901 (R36C103)
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Observation Simulation Recharge
Well Hydrographs – Kearny & Finney South of Ark
USGS Well 375644101092502 (R29C56) [max Rch > 4.0]
2770
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1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
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Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 375002101020401 (R37C62) [max Rch > 4.0]
2710
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1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
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es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 374931100453501 (R37C77)
2640
2660
2680
2700
2720
2740
2760
2780
2800
2820
2840
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 374840100391301 (R38C83)
2590
2610
2630
2650
2670
2690
2710
2730
2750
2770
2790
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
Well Hydrographs – Hodgeman & Ford
USGS Well 381207099325201 (R11C143)
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
2110
2130
2150
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 375206099451001 (R34C132)
2300
2320
2340
2360
2380
2400
2420
2440
2460
2480
2500
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 374442099573601 (R42C121)
2330
2350
2370
2390
2410
2430
2450
2470
2490
2510
2530
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 373309099384901 (R56C139)
2160
2180
2200
2220
2240
2260
2280
2300
2320
2340
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
Well Hydrographs - StantonUSGS Well 374826101541402 (R38C15)
3210
3230
3250
3270
3290
3310
3330
3350
3370
3390
3410
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 374708101562401 (R40C13)
3230
3250
3270
3290
3310
3330
3350
3370
3390
3410
3430
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 374039101343701 (R47C33)
2910
2930
2950
2970
2990
3010
3030
3050
3070
3090
3110
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 373901101464301 (R49C22)
3110
3130
3150
3170
3190
3210
3230
3250
3270
3290
3310
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
esObservation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 373808101422201 (R50C25) [dZ > 200 ft]
2900
2950
3000
3050
3100
3150
3200
3250
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 373703101334001 (R52C33)
2920
2940
2960
2980
3000
3020
3040
3060
3080
3100
3120
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372550101333801 (R64C33)
2940
2960
2980
3000
3020
3040
3060
3080
3100
3120
3140
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372402101584001 (R66C10)
3450
3470
3490
3510
3530
3550
3570
3590
3610
3630
3650
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372326101422301 (R67C25)
3080
3100
3120
3140
3160
3180
3200
3220
3240
3260
3280
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
Well Hydrographs – Grant & Haskell North of CimarronUSGS Well 374203101095101 (R46C55)
2740
2760
2780
2800
2820
2840
2860
2880
2900
2920
2940
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 374046100520101 (R48C72)
2610
2630
2650
2670
2690
2710
2730
2750
2770
2790
2810
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 374044100395001 (R48C83)
2580
2600
2620
2640
2660
2680
2700
2720
2740
2760
2780
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 373340100522701 (R56C71)
2450
2500
2550
2600
2650
2700
2750
2800
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 373018100521101 (R60C71)
2450
2500
2550
2600
2650
2700
2750
2800
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 373009101234301 (R60C43)
2650
2700
2750
2800
2850
2900
2950
3000
3050
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
esObservation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372759101210001 (R62C45)
2800
2820
2840
2860
2880
2900
2920
2940
2960
2980
3000
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372826101125501 (R62C52)
2730
2750
2770
2790
2810
2830
2850
2870
2890
2910
2930
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372825101041201 (R62C60)
2650
2670
2690
2710
2730
2750
2770
2790
2810
2830
2850
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
Well Hydrographs - Gray South of Ark to Crooked Creek
USGS Well 374251100182601 (R45C102)
2490
2510
2530
2550
2570
2590
2610
2630
2650
2670
2690
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 373651100294301 (R52C92)
2560
2580
2600
2620
2640
2660
2680
2700
2720
2740
2760
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 373054100354401 (R59C86)
2540
2560
2580
2600
2620
2640
2660
2680
2700
2720
2740
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372957100291101 (R60C92)
2520
2540
2560
2580
2600
2620
2640
2660
2680
2700
2720
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372942100192201 (R60C102)
2460
2480
2500
2520
2540
2560
2580
2600
2620
2640
2660
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372922100232701 (R61C98)
2480
2500
2520
2540
2560
2580
2600
2620
2640
2660
2680
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
Well Hydrographs - Morton
The first well is in bedrock although the water level is slightly above bedrock surface; the second well is also in thinly saturated area on the tri-state border.
USGS Well 371945101541201 (R71C14)
3350
3370
3390
3410
3430
3450
3470
3490
3510
3530
3550
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 365934102014401 (R94C7)
3410
3430
3450
3470
3490
3510
3530
3550
3570
3590
3610
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
Well Hydrographs - Stevens & Seward South of CimarronUSGS Well 372357101171501 (R67C48)
2800
2820
2840
2860
2880
2900
2920
2940
2960
2980
3000
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372240100572101 (R68C67)
2630
2650
2670
2690
2710
2730
2750
2770
2790
2810
2830
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372227101121501 (R69C53) [max Rch > 4.0]
2750
2770
2790
2810
2830
2850
2870
2890
2910
2930
2950
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372016101201201 (R71C46)
2800
2820
2840
2860
2880
2900
2920
2940
2960
2980
3000
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 371706100432201 (R75C79)
2520
2540
2560
2580
2600
2620
2640
2660
2680
2700
2720
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 371621101194001 (R76C46)
2840
2860
2880
2900
2920
2940
2960
2980
3000
3020
3040
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 371621101082601 (R76C57) [max Rch > 4.0]
2730
2750
2770
2790
2810
2830
2850
2870
2890
2910
2930
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 371339101025301 (R79C62) [max Rch > 4.0]
2660
2680
2700
2720
2740
2760
2780
2800
2820
2840
2860
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 371103101334301 (R81C33)
3020
3040
3060
3080
3100
3120
3140
3160
3180
3200
3220
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 371135101260901 (R81C40)
2900
2920
2940
2960
2980
3000
3020
3040
3060
3080
3100
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 370517101324601 (R88C34)
2990
3010
3030
3050
3070
3090
3110
3130
3150
3170
3190
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 370523101004901 (R88C64)
2690
2710
2730
2750
2770
2790
2810
2830
2850
2870
2890
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 370218101103301 (R92C54)
2780
2800
2820
2840
2860
2880
2900
2920
2940
2960
2980
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 370128101004001 (R93C64)
2690
2710
2730
2750
2770
2790
2810
2830
2850
2870
2890
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
Well Hydrographs - MeadeUSGS Well 372746100103701 (R62C109)
2410
2430
2450
2470
2490
2510
2530
2550
2570
2590
2610
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372539100142501 (R65C106)
2430
2450
2470
2490
2510
2530
2550
2570
2590
2610
2630
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 372454100361701 (R66C86)
2520
2540
2560
2580
2600
2620
2640
2660
2680
2700
2720
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 371938100302901 (R72C91)
2490
2510
2530
2550
2570
2590
2610
2630
2650
2670
2690
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
esObservation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 371938100250102 (R72C96)
2460
2480
2500
2520
2540
2560
2580
2600
2620
2640
2660
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 371732100214701 (R74C99)
2440
2460
2480
2500
2520
2540
2560
2580
2600
2620
2640
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 370857100234601 (R84C97)
2280
2300
2320
2340
2360
2380
2400
2420
2440
2460
2480
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
USGS Well 370048100342101 (R93C88)
2360
2380
2400
2420
2440
2460
2480
2500
2520
2540
2560
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Wat
er l
evel
, fe
et
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
An
nu
al r
ech
arg
e, i
nch
es
Observation Simulation Recharge
GMD3 Model Boundaries
Red – Specified Fluxes(Represented by a series of artificial wells)
Water Budgets Across Boundaries (Accumulative)
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006Year
Ac
cu
. vo
lum
e (
AF
)
West South North KS/OK East
Water Budgets Across Boundaries (Annual)
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006Year
An
nu
al r
ate
(A
F/y
r)
West South North KS/OK East
Bedrock Head Boundary Budgets (Accumulative)
-1,000,000
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006Year
Ac
cu
. vo
lum
e (
AF
)
HamiltonHodgemanClark
Bedrock Head Boundary Budgets (Annual)
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006Year
An
nu
al r
ate
(A
F/y
r)
Hamilton
Hodgeman
Clark
Arkansas River FlowPredevelopment 2007
-150
0
150
300
450
0 50 100 150 200 250
Accumulative Stream Length (mi)
Flo
w R
ate
(cfs
)
Stream Flow Stream-Aquifer Accum Diversion
-150
0
150
300
450
0 50 100 150 200 250
Accumulative Stream Length (mi)
Flo
w R
ate
(cfs
)
Stream Flow Stream-Aquifer Accum Diversion
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0 50 100 150 200 250
Accumulative Stream Length (mi)
Gro
un
dw
ater
Dis
char
ge
(cfs
)
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0 50 100 150 200 250
Accumulative Stream Length (mi)
Gro
un
dw
ater
Dis
char
ge
(cfs
)
Crooked Creek FlowPredevelopment 2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Accumulative Stream Length (mi)
Flo
w R
ate
(cfs
)
Stream Flow Stream-Aquifer Accum
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Accumulative Stream Length (mi)
Flo
w R
ate
(cfs
)
Stream Flow Stream-Aquifer Accum
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Accumulative Stream Length (mi)
Gro
un
dw
ater
Dis
char
ge
(cfs
)
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Accumulative Stream Length (mi)
Gro
un
dw
ater
Dis
char
ge
(cfs
)
Cimarron River FlowPredevelopment 2007
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 50 100 150 200 250
Accumulative Stream Length (mi)
Flo
w R
ate
(cfs
)
Stream Flow Stream-Aquifer Accum Crooked Creek
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0 50 100 150 200 250
Accumulative Stream Length (mi)
Gro
un
dw
ater
Dis
char
ge
(cfs
)
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 50 100 150 200 250
Accumulative Stream Length (mi)
Flo
w R
ate
(cfs
)
Stream Flow Stream-Aquifer Accum Crooked Creek
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
0 50 100 150 200 250
Accumulative Stream Length (mi)
Gro
un
dw
ater
Dis
char
ge
(cfs
)
Simulated Groundwater Budgets (Accumulative)
-120,000,000
-100,000,000
-80,000,000
-60,000,000
-40,000,000
-20,000,000
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006Year
Acc
u.
Vo
lum
e (A
F)
RechargeETConstant headsStream leakageStorage declineWells
Simulated Groundwater Budgets (Annual)
-3,000,000
-2,500,000
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006Year
An
nu
al r
ate
(A
F/y
r)
RechargeETConstant headsStream leakageStorageWells
Next Major Steps
• A few more PEST runs to check if the calibrated model can be further improved.
• Scenario simulation under different climatic and water use conditions.
