Sources of Climate Information Sources of Climate Information and the WB Climate Data and the WB Climate Data

PortalPortal

Michael I. WestphalMichael I. Westphal

CC Team ENVCC Team ENV

SDN Week 26/2/08SDN Week 26/2/08

What’s out there?What’s out there? What data are easily accessible?What data are easily accessible? What data are useful and important in What data are useful and important in

the development context?the development context?

- timeframe, variables, spatial - timeframe, variables, spatial scale (Are GCMs too coarse?)scale (Are GCMs too coarse?)

Is it all too uncertain? (Or the Paralysis Is it all too uncertain? (Or the Paralysis of Uncertainty)of Uncertainty)

Oft-heard QuestionsOft-heard Questions

Sources of Climate InformationSources of Climate Information

I.) I.) Documents/ ReportsDocuments/ Reports IPCC Fourth Assessment Report IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

(www.ipcc.ch)(www.ipcc.ch) Limitations: Limitations:

- Informational only, no data- Informational only, no data- Generated by and for (?) climate - Generated by and for (?) climate scientistsscientists- Qualitative, difficult to bore down to - Qualitative, difficult to bore down to regionsregions- Most projections end of 21- Most projections end of 21stst Century Century

II) Data SitesII) Data Sites IPCC Data Portal (WCRP CMIP3 multi-IPCC Data Portal (WCRP CMIP3 multi-

model database) model database) (https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/)(https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/)

- abstruse (netCDF) format, unusable - abstruse (netCDF) format, unusable to development professionals to development professionals

II) Data SitesII) Data Sites Various CRU historical datasets Various CRU historical datasets

Tyndall: Tyndall: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timm/data/index-http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timm/data/index-table.htmltable.html

CGIAR: CGIAR: http://cru.csi.cgiar.org/CRU_data_structure.asphttp://cru.csi.cgiar.org/CRU_data_structure.asp

University of East Anglia University of East Anglia http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/

--requires programming/GIS requires programming/GIS sophisticationsophistication

II)II) Data SitesData Sites WorldClim WorldClim (www.worldclim.org)(www.worldclim.org)

- Historical bioclim variables ands - Historical bioclim variables ands downscaling from 3 GCMs (IPCC 3AR)downscaling from 3 GCMs (IPCC 3AR)

-no measures of extreme precipitation; -no measures of extreme precipitation; rainfall variabilityrainfall variability

-requires programming/GIS -requires programming/GIS sophisticationsophistication

III) Visualisation SitesIII) Visualisation Sites Hadley CentreHadley Centre

-One model, one point in time, limited -One model, one point in time, limited variablesvariables (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/(http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/modeldata.html) hadleycentre/models/modeldata.html)

National Center for Atmospheric National Center for Atmospheric ResearchResearch- More variables, more interactive but - More variables, more interactive but still one point in timestill one point in time- can download data- can download data- one model- one model- missing variables to development? - missing variables to development? (rainfall variability, variability, variability)(rainfall variability, variability, variability)(www.gisclimatechange.org)(www.gisclimatechange.org)

III) Visualisation Sites – III) Visualisation Sites – Current/historical climateCurrent/historical climate

International Research Institute for International Research Institute for Climate and Society – climatologies, Climate and Society – climatologies, drought, anomalies, etc.drought, anomalies, etc. (http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt)(http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt)

NOAA Africa Desk - climatologies, NOAA Africa Desk - climatologies, drought, anomalies, station data, etc.drought, anomalies, station data, etc. (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/africa

n_desk/)n_desk/)

IV) What about “desktop” models?IV) What about “desktop” models? MAGICC MAGICC

(http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/software/m(http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/software/magicc.htm)agicc.htm)-More for exploring emissions; only -More for exploring emissions; only basic temp and SLRbasic temp and SLR

PRECIS (Hadley Centre)PRECIS (Hadley Centre)- (http://precis.metoffice.com)- (http://precis.metoffice.com)- More for Met Bureaus- More for Met Bureaus-A typical experiment (100 x100 grid) -A typical experiment (100 x100 grid) run on a 2.8GHz machine: 4.5 months run on a 2.8GHz machine: 4.5 months to complete a 30-year simulation!to complete a 30-year simulation!

… … hence the need for a hence the need for a Climate Data PortalClimate Data Portal

Niche of our Climate Data PortalNiche of our Climate Data Portal

‘‘Light’ and quick, ease-of-useLight’ and quick, ease-of-useVisualization, querying, data Visualization, querying, data

summarizationsummarizationPixel-level and country aggregationPixel-level and country aggregationMore consonant with development More consonant with development

timeframe and variables (extreme timeframe and variables (extreme precipitation/ temperature)precipitation/ temperature)

http://essdcharts.worldbank.orghttp://essdcharts.worldbank.org

Niche of our Climate Data PortalNiche of our Climate Data Portal

Historical and ProjectedHistorical and ProjectedGCMs and downscalingGCMs and downscalingMultimodel, model Multimodel, model concordance/discordance (uncertainty)concordance/discordance (uncertainty)Not just 1Not just 1 Climate Data Climate Data

- Climate-related (natural disaster, - Climate-related (natural disaster, crop yield crop yield projections)projections)

- Non-climate (socioeconomic)- Non-climate (socioeconomic)

Some Global DatasetsSome Global Datasets

TypeType VariablesVariables InstituteInstitute ResolutionResolution

Climate Climate Change Change Projections Projections (High (High resolution resolution GCM)GCM)

Temp, Precip, Temp, Precip, extreme extreme rainfall rainfall metricsmetrics

MeteorologicaMeteorological Research l Research Institute, Institute, JapanJapan

20 km.20 km.

Climate Climate Change Change Projections Projections (IPCC GCMs)(IPCC GCMs)

Temp, Precip, Temp, Precip, extreme extreme rainfall/temp rainfall/temp metricsmetrics

VariousVarious 1- 41- 4°°

Climate Climate Change Change ProjectionsProjections

RunoffRunoff USGS (Milly et USGS (Milly et al. 2008)al. 2008)

22°°

Climate Climate Change Change ProjectionsProjections

Crop yield Crop yield changes/ changes/ suitability (14 suitability (14 crops)crops)

IIASA, AustriaIIASA, Austria 5’5’

TypeType VariablesVariables InstituteInstitute ResolutionResolution

Natural Natural Disaster Disaster HotspotsHotspots

Floods, Floods, droughts, droughts, landslides landslides (economic loss, (economic loss, economic loss: economic loss: GDP, mortality)GDP, mortality)

WB/ Columbia WB/ Columbia UniversityUniversity

2.5’ 2.5’

Historical Historical Climate (CRU Climate (CRU Dataset)Dataset)

Monthly Temp, Monthly Temp, PrecipPrecip

University of University of East Anglia/ East Anglia/ CGIARCGIAR

0.5°0.5°

Some Global DatasetsSome Global Datasets

Planned FunctionalityPlanned Functionality

• Linkages with other tools, wikiLinkages with other tools, wiki

• Interfacing with Bank databasesInterfacing with Bank databases

• Spatially-referenced KnowledgebaseSpatially-referenced Knowledgebase

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

• Data suppliers:Data suppliers:

- IPCC Data Portal (LLL)- IPCC Data Portal (LLL)

- MRI, Japan- MRI, Japan

• SDN IT GroupSDN IT Group

- Reza Firuzabadi- Reza Firuzabadi

- Arvind Gowda, Dany Jones, Michael Kane, - Arvind Gowda, Dany Jones, Michael Kane, Ritesh Sanan, Varuna SomaweeraRitesh Sanan, Varuna Somaweera

Climate Needs for Bank?Climate Needs for Bank?

• VariablesVariables

• Spatial ScaleSpatial Scale

• Time FrameTime Frame

• Display of uncertaintiesDisplay of uncertainties

• Format Format

• Will this portal be useful? When? Will this portal be useful? When? Modifications, extensions?Modifications, extensions?