SOME IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL & OTHER ...

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SHIRLEY CONSULTING ENGINEERS PTY LTDINVESTIGATIVE, REMEDIAL & GROUND ENGINEERING

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Andrew Shirley

SOME IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL & OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE

ENGINEERING DISCUSSION GROUP21 May 2013

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INTRODUCTION : PRESENTATION OUTLINE

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCECO2, Temperature & StorminessCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS - PHYSICALCoastal Recession, Sea Level Rise & StormsEffect on Groundwater & Land StabilityCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS - PEOPLEPollution, economic, wars & refugeesADAPTATION & PLANNING IssuesUnderwriting & risk assessments, Hazards Engineering & Planning


CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE

Climate has always been changing, but now it is faster than ever.97% of Climate Scientists agree man is causing the rapid climate change.Mainly caused by increased CO2 – currently 400ppm was about 250ppm at the beginning of the 18th centuryTemperature rise causes drought & increasingly violent storms – StorminessMore severe storms – more damage



CO2 levels since 1700



Sea Levels are rising – about 2 to 3mm / yearNSW Government Benchmark in 2012 was 900mm by 2100

Temperature is rising – possibly another2 degrees in the next 100 yearsMore severe storms are the resultA current 1 in 100 year event may occur every 20 to 25 yearsWHAT ARE THE IMPACTS?


SOME IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES

COASTLINES WILL RETREAT FASTERAREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL FLOOD MORE OFTEN – and sooner than we think!GREATER BUSHFIRE RISKELECTRICITY GRID PROBLEMSTHESE CAN ALL LEAD TO:

1. MORE REFUGEES & POSSIBLE WARS2. COLLAPSE OF FINANCIAL & PROPERTY MARKETS


BLUFF & COASTAL RECESSION

COASTLINE, BEACHES & BLUFFS [cliffs & headland] ALREADY RETREATRockfalls and house / structure collapsesFASTER RECESSION WILL ENDANGER MORE QUICKLY PROPERTYPROPERTY LOSSES TRANSLATE TO FINANCIAL PROBLEMS


BLUFF RECESSION & PLANNINGWhale Beach Rockfall in 2003


BLUFF RECESSION & PLANNINGCoastal Recession in the UK

(In similar materials to CTH)


BLUFF RECESSION & PLANNINGAda Avenue, Noraville Headland


COASTAL RECESSION : MECHANISMEFFECT ON STRUCTURES


BLUFF RECESSION & PLANNINGCabbage Tree Bay / Harbour


COASTAL RECESSION MECHANISMCABBAGE TREE HARBOUR / BAY


CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSSEA LEVEL RISE & STORMS

LOW LYING AREAS FLOOD MORE OFTEN

NEED FOR EMERGENCY EVACUATIONS IN SEVERE STORMS – e.g. the Queensland floodsSEWER SYSTEMS FAIL e.g. Chittaway Point in 2007ELECTRICITY SYSTEM CAN FAIL DUE TO SUB-STATION FLOODING

1. As a result of tide & groundwater rise from changes in pressure

2. Some residential areas will become uninhabitable



STRUCTURES FAIL IN UNFORESEEN WAYS



1. About 1,000 homes flooded2. About 10,000 properties flooded3. 500 people rescued4. Four to five days of high flood water in Tuggerah

Lakes5. Failure of the Chittaway Point Sewer System

(vacuum system)

WYONG SHIRE, DAMAGE FROM THE 2007 FLOOD INCLUDED:



STRUCTURES FAIL IN UNFORESEEN WAYSElectrical Tower affected by landslide




Land before the floodElect Tower


CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS - PEOPLE

POLLUTION & HEALTH ISSUESAir Pollution from increased dust storms, increased fog / smog issuesHealth effects on the elderly and weak


CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS – PEOPLESydney Dust Storm 23 September 2009


CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS - PEOPLESydney Dust Storm 23 September 2009


CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS - PEOPLE

ECONOMIC ISSUESProperty devaluations & debt defaults can cause financial institutions to fail.

WARS & REFUGEESWhere will the people of Bangladesh or Tuvalu go?What will happen if we all stop using coal?


ADAPTATION & PLANNING ISSUES

NOT ALL GLOOM AND DOOMBut it is a BIG problem & we need to act NOW!ENGINEERS CAN CHANGE THINGSBut politicians need to get on board and resolve to changeINSURERS CAN HELP TO DRIVE CHANGEe.g. The insurance industry established the fire brigade



ENGINEERING, PLANNING & HAZARDSCoastal Structures must be designed to cope with change, but it costs $$Coastal Councils must be forced to have good hazard identification and risk assessmentsInsurers can help drive these issues


ADAPTATION & PLANNING ISSUESHurricane Ike : 2008 – Last House StandingStructures can be designed to cope with storms



INSURERS CAN DRIVE CHANGE : HOW?

BY LOBBYING STRONGLY

IN UNDERWRITING POLICY


ADAPTATION & PLANNING ISSUESINSURERS CAN DRIVE CHANGE : HOW?

Lobby government / local government for:EFFECTIVE HAZARD RECOGNITION & MAPS(but by studies by competent organisations & fund / co-fund them yourself if you need to).PUBLICLY CHALLENGE THE CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS – 97% of the world’s climate scientists agree our CC is caused by man.STRONGLY LOBBY FOR REDUCING C02EMISSIONS & ADOPT A CARBON NEUTRAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY


ADAPTATION & PLANNING ISSUESINSURERS CAN DRIVE CHANGE : HOW?UNDERWRITING ASSESSMENTS, get advice on:

1. Near the coast – find out about the impact of cliffs and areas behind beaches on structures

2. Recognise the impact of Sea Level Rise & Groundwater Rise on low lying areas

3. Refer to Council’s Hazard Maps & Risk Assessments. e.g. geotechnical, flood & fire


QUESTIONS / DISCUSSION

THANK YOUAny Questions?

SOME IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL & OTHER ...

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