Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends,...
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Transcript of Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends,...
![Page 1: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Some analyses of updated SSU data
– merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14– derived trends, solar cycle– comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data
![Page 2: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
SSU: ~10-15 km thick layer temperatures
![Page 3: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
data from NOAA operational satellites
![Page 4: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
NOAA-11
NOAA-14
note flattening of trends since
~1995
small long-term cooling in
middle strat.
![Page 5: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
MSU4 trends 1979-2004
![Page 6: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
SSU15x trends 1979-2004
NOAA-14 NOAA-11
![Page 7: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
NOAA-11 NOAA-14
Annual average trends 1979-2004
![Page 8: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Model vs. observed trends (1979-1997)
Shine et al., 2003
x
1979-2003trends
![Page 9: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
How do we interpret stratopause variability?
?
~45-60 km
![Page 10: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
How do we interpret stratopause variability?
?
~45-60 km
![Page 11: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Model vs. observed trends (1979-1997)
Shine et al., 2003
x
1979-2003trends
x why are middlestratospheretrends so small ?
![Page 12: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Seasonal trends (N11)
![Page 13: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
SSU vs. HALOE
SSU 27~35-50 km
HALOEintegrated toapproximate
SSU 27
![Page 14: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
SSU vs. HALOE
SSU 47x~43-57 km
HALOEintegrated toapproximate
SSU 47x
![Page 15: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Problems in operational analyses / reanalyses due to changes in satellite instruments
verticallyintegrated toapproximateSSU 36x(~35-50 km)
![Page 16: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Global mean 100 hPa temps from analyses / reanalyses
Note spurious changes due to evolution
of data / analysis systems
TOVS – ATOVS change
each data setnormed to
zero for1992-1999
![Page 17: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Temperature solar cycle 1979-2003
NOAA-11 NOAA-14
![Page 18: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Observations vs. model
FUB model, Matthes et al., 2004
![Page 19: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Observed ozone andtemp changes
40 km ozone
35-50 kmtemperature
note coherentvariability
(temperaturesrespond to
ozone)
![Page 20: Some analyses of updated SSU data –merging Nash data with NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 –derived trends, solar cycle –comparisons with NCEP/ERA40/HALOE data.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515fa24550346a2308b48e0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Some key points:
• Significant differences between updated record using NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 data
• Strong upper stratosphere cooling ends after ~1995(reasonable agreement with HALOE data)
• No significant trends in tropical lower stratosphere in MSU4 and SSU15x data (very different from radiosondes)
• Small global trends in middle stratosphere (different from models)
• Reanalysis data sets problematic for trends
• Solar cycle ~1 K, maximizes in tropical middle-upper stratosphere