Solar PV Market Potential Globally - Business Finland · · 2014-06-18Solar PV Market Potential...
Transcript of Solar PV Market Potential Globally - Business Finland · · 2014-06-18Solar PV Market Potential...
Solar PV Market Potential Globally
and in Finland
Christian Breyer
Solar Energy in the North – Aurinkoenergia Pohjoisissa Oloissa
Helsinki, June 17, 2014
4 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Agenda
Status and Dynamics of solar PV Diffusion
Grid-Parity
Vision behind
High shares of Renewables in the System
Solar PV in the Nordic
Summary
5 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Business model of conv. utilities is collapsing
6 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Power plant investments in EU (2000 – 2013)
PV and wind power will become the core pillars of a sustainable power supply
gas fired power plants are the bridging technology towards a 100% RE power supply
investments in gas infrastructure are NO stranded investments (unlike coal and nuclear)
source: EPIA, 2014
Power plant investments in EU in 2000 – 2013 in GW
source: EPIA, 2014
7 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Global installed PV cap.: cumulated and added
source: EPIA, 2014
8 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Global Installed PV Capacity: Relative
enormous market growth ahead,
since ~50%+ of conventional power capacity base could be supplemented
by PV at least (there is NO competition to wind power)
source: Werner C., Gerlach A., Breyer Ch., 2013. Analysis and Forecast of
Global Installed Photovoltaic Capacity and Identification of Hidden
Growth Markets, 28th EU PVSEC, Paris
Gerlach A.-K., Breyer Ch., et al., 2011. PV and Wind Power –
Complementary Technologies, ISES Solar World Congress, Kassel
9 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Global Installed PV Capacity: Growth Rates
enormous market growth ahead,
since ~50%+ of conventional power capacity base could be supplemented
by PV (there is NO competition to wind power)
source: Werner C., Gerlach A., Breyer Ch., 2013. Analysis and Forecast of
Global Installed Photovoltaic Capacity and Identification of Hidden
Growth Markets, 28th EU PVSEC, Paris
Gerlach A.-K., Breyer Ch., et al., 2011. PV and Wind Power –
Complementary Technologies, ISES Solar World Congress, Kassel
10 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Experience Curve: driven by growth and learning
0.001
0.010
0.100
1.000
10.000
100.000
1,000.000
10,000.000
100,000.000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
year
an
nu
al p
rod
uc
tio
n [
MW
p]
space terrestrial roof-top power plant
Si solar cell terrestrial module roof-top programm
major markets
major inventions
off-grid on-grid
0.001
0.010
0.100
1.000
10.000
100.000
1,000.000
10,000.000
100,000.000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
year
an
nu
al p
rod
uc
tio
n [
MW
p]
space terrestrial roof-top power plant
Si solar cell terrestrial module roof-top programm
major markets
major inventions
off-grid on-grid
source: Breyer Ch., et al., 2011. Research and Development Investments in PV – A limiting Factor for a fast PV Diffusion?, 25th
EU PVSEC/ WCPEC-5, Valencia 2010, September 6–10 ; Breyer Ch., et al., 2013. Global current and historic photovoltaic
research and development investments from the public and private sector, Energy Policy, 62, 1570-1580
cost reduction by x% per each doubling of cumulated
historic capacity (PV modules: ~20%, PV systems: ~16%)
currentwholesale pricerange
11 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Solar PV: long-term Capex projection
source: ISE, 2014
12 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Solar Resource and current and projected cost
data source: NASA SSE 6.0, calculation by HDKR model 1h interval at mean day of monthfor all months of the year
source: Breyer Ch. and Schmid J., 2010. Population Density and Area weighted Solar Irradiation: global Overview on Solar Resource Conditions for fixed tilted, 1-axis and 2-axes PV Systems, 25th PVSEC/ WCPEC-5, Valencia, September 6–10
Moderate region
LCOE2014: 90 – 140 €/MWh
LCOE2020: 80 – 110 €/MWh
LCOE2030: 65 – 85 €/MWh
LCOE2050: 50 – 60 €/MWh
Sunny regions
LCOE2014: 50 – 80 €/MWh
LCOE2020: 40 – 60 €/MWh
LCOE2030: 30 – 50 €/MWh
LCOE2050: 25 – 40 €/MWh
13 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Agenda
Status and Dynamics of solar PV Diffusion
Grid-Parity
Vision behind
High shares of Renewables in the System
Solar PV in the Nordic
Summary
14 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Solar PV and End-user Economics
source: Deutsche Bank Securities, 2014. 2014 Outlook: Let
the Second Gold Rush Begin, New York
15 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Impact of Solar Irradiation and Electricity Prices
solar irradiation differs by a factor of up to 2.5 (1,000 – 2,500 kWh/m²a)
for electricity this factor is as high as 30 (0.01 - >0.30 EUR/kWh) and therefore making electricity prices
far more important for reaching grid-parity than solar irradiation
source: Gerlach A. and Breyer Ch., 2012. Global Grid-Parity Dynamics on a
National and Regional Level, 27th EU PVSEC, Frankfurt
16 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Impression for (Commercial) End-User Profitability
source: REC Solar, 2014. Study on the Profitability of Commercial
Self-Consumption Solar Installations in Germany; Italy and
Turkey (only in German available)
Lappeenranta University of Technology
• both systems on the right are part of a 220 kWp
commercial solar PV system
• it is financially beneficial for the university
• more details in August: Kosonen A., Ahola J., Breyer Ch., Albó A.,
2014. Large Scale Solar Power Plant in Nordic Conditions, 16th EU
Conference on Power Electronics and Applications, August 26-28, accepted
17 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Agenda
Status and Dynamics of solar PV Diffusion
Grid-Parity
Vision behind
High shares of Renewables in the System
Solar PV in the Nordic
Summary
18 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Solar Economy (as defined by Fortum)
source: Brunila A., 2012. Fortum – Power and heat company in
the Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and the Baltics
19 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Resources and Energy Demand
source: Perez R. and Perez M., 2009. A fundamental look on energy reserves for the
planet. The IEA SHC Solar Update, Volume 50
Key insights:• no lack of energy
resouces
• limited conventional
resources
• solar and wind resources
need to be the major
pillars of a sustainable
energy supply
Remark:
• conventional resources
might be lower than
depicted by Perez
source:
Kauppinen H., 2013. Kaasuvisio
energia- ja ilmastotiekarttaan 2050,
Suomen Kaasuyhdistyksen
syyskokous , November 21
27 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Agenda
Status and Dynamics of solar PV Diffusion
Grid-Parity
Vision behind
High shares of Renewables in the System
Solar PV in the Nordic
Summary
28 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
50% RE in Germany – Agora Energiewende, DE
source: Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon
Technologies: What is the Cheapest option, Berlin
Key insights:
• PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option
• nuclear and coal-CCS are too expensive
• nuclear and coal-CCS are high risk
technologies
• high value added for PV-Wind due to higher
capacities needed
29 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
100% RE in Germany – Fraunhofer ISE, DE
source: Henning H.-M. and Palzer A., 2012. 100 % Renewables for Electricity and Heat – a
Holistic Model for a Future German Energy System , 7th IRES, Berlin
30 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
100% RE in Ireland – Aalborg University, DK
source:
Connolly D. and Mathiesen V., 2014. A technical and economic
analysis of one potential pathway to a 100% renewable energy
system, Int. J. Sustain Energy Planning and Mgm
Key characteristics:
• 100% RE system for all sector
• hourly resolved simulation
• solar PV ‚forgotten‘
• well balanced RE-heat and RE-mobility
• focus on energy flows and system costs
• no grid, no import/ export, not fully optimised
31 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
100% RE in Ireland – Aalborg University, DK
Key insights:
• 7 step approach feasible
• significant increase in power demand (~ +350%)
• BUT, no change in total primary energy demand (TPED)
• highly efficient power-based RE system enables power-
to-gas/liquid pathways
32 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
100% RE in Ireland – Aalborg University, DK
Key insights:
• 2020 system cost only 30% higher than reference (neglecting: cost
of climate change, cancer deaths, negative trade balance effects,
lower level of employment in energy sector, less tax income)
• 2050 system cost identical to reference
• simplified standard economic consideration, neglecting the full
view on total societal cost
• otherwise, maybe 30% less in cost (personal estimate)
• significant increase in employment (> 100 000 jobs)
33 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Storage options in General and RPM
source: Breyer Ch., Rieke S., et al., 2011. Hybrid PV-Wind-Renewable
Methane Power Plants – A Potential Cornerstone of Global
Energy Supply, 26th EU PVSEC, Hamburg, September 5-9
daily seasonal
storage for PV + Wind
TES
Key insights:
• gas is the only long term energy storage
• RPM might be favoured due to an
evolutionary transition process
34 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Energy system
Major components
• CCGT/ OCGT
• wind energy
• PV
• CSP
• TES
• battery
• renewable power
methane (RPM)
• heating rod
Key characteristic
• 100% RE
• hourly consideration
• Power supply security
• Worst case assumption (no hydro,
heat, mobility, regional power
exchange, no H2 direct use)
source: Pleßmann G., Erdmann M., Breyer Ch., et al., 2013. Global Energy Storage Demand for a
100% Renewable Electricity Supply, 8th IRES, Berlin, November 18-20
35 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Financial and technical assumptions for 2020
Technology Capex Opexfix Opexvar Lifetime [a] Efficiency [%]
Photovoltaics 900 €/kWp 15 €/kWp 0 €/kWhel 25 -
Wind power 1000 €/kWel 30 €/kWel 0 €/kWhel 25 -
Battery 250 €/kWhel 20 €/kWhel 0 €/kWhel 10 80
Gas storage 0.05 €/kWhth 0.001 €/kWhth 0 €/kWhth 50 -
Power-to-Gas 936 €/kWel 24 €/kWel 0.03 €/kWel 20...30 50
CCGT 750 €/kWel 15 €/kWel 0 €/kWhel 30 58
OCGT 380 €/kWel 7.6 €/kWel 0 €/kWhel 30 38
CSP (solar field) 500 €/kWth 10 €/kWth 0 €/kWhth 25 50
Thermal storage 28 €/kWhth 0.3 €/kWhth 0 €/kWhth 20 93
Steam turbine 700 €/kWel 14 €/kWel 0 €/kWhel 30 42
Heating rod 20 €/kWth 0.4 €/kWth 0 €/kWhth 30 100
Hot heat burner 100 €/kWth 2 €/kWth 0 €/kWhth 20 95
Natural gas fuel - - 0.03 €/kWhth - -
WACC: 7%; Capex CSP+8hTES: ~ 3200 €/kWel
36 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
What does a 100% RES supply cost?
• LCOE: global average 142 €/MWh (min 80 – max 203 €/MWh)
• strong dependence on local resource conditions
• more components need to be included (hydro, heat, mobility, desalination, etc.)
• still worst case assumptions
source: Pleßmann G., Erdmann M., Breyer Ch., et al., 2013. Global Energy Storage Demand for a
100% Renewable Electricity Supply, 8th IRES, Berlin, November 18-20
37 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Global average:
Resulting cost optimal system configuration
Global capacities of resources
7300 GW PV
6700 GW Wind
3900 GW CSPel
Global capacities of storages (elec.)
1500 GWh Batteries (375 bn €)
1691000 GWhth Gas storage (85 bn €)
2360 GWel RPM capacity (2207 bn €)
73560 GWhth TES (2060 bn €)
6 %
67 %
27 % Battery
TES
RPM
Shares of energy supply from storages
33 %
46 %
21 %PV
Wind
CSP
Shares of energy supply
9400 TWh
13200 TWh
6000 TWh
source: Pleßmann G., Erdmann M., Breyer Ch., et al., 2013. Global Energy Storage Demand for a
100% Renewable Electricity Supply, 8th IRES, Berlin, November 18-20
38 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Maximum (visionary) solar PV Market long-term
Key question:• What is the long-term maximum solar PV demand globally?
Assumptions:• global population: 10 billion people
• energy consumption level: today’s EU28 average should guarantee a good standard of living
• energy generation: primary energy demand supplied by power technologies, mainly wind energy and solar
energy, due to major constraints, like resources, costs, emissions and efficiency
• energy demand: sectors power, heat and mobility use different forms of energy, based on electricity
• efficiency of solar PV: doubling of system efficiency from ave 15% today to 30% (impact on area demand)
• senarios: breakthrough progress of batteries: Yes (PV share 40% of total) / No (PV share 25%)
Results:
• such an energy system is technically, economically and ecologically feasible (see Ireland, Germany, etc.)
• demand for solar PV capacity might be about 65 TWp up to 100 TWp depending on battery breakthrough
• solar PV energy generation might be up to 160 000 TWh/a
• roof-top capacity might be about 10 – 20 TWp, rest need to be ground mounted
• area demand for ground mounted systems would be 0.3 % - 0.6% of global land area
39 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Agenda
Status and Dynamics of solar PV Diffusion
Grid-Parity
Vision behind
High shares of Renewables in the System
Solar PV in the Nordic
Summary
40 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Solar in the Nordic
Grid-Parity events in the Nordic *,**
• 2011: Denmark
• 2014: Sweden
• 2015: Norway
• 2016: Finland
• 2020s: Iceland
* for standard assumptions; deviations
possible
** Gerlach A. and Breyer Ch., 2012.
Global Grid-Parity Dynamics on a
National and Regional Level, 27th EU
PVSEC
41 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Solar PV in the Nordic – A recent IEA view
source: IEA, 2013. Nordic Energy
Technology Perspectives –
Pathways to a Carbon
Neutral Energy Future
Key insight:
• solar PV is expected to play no role in the Nordic until 2050
To be discussed:
• However, solar power generation cost are already today comparable in some
regions to some of the mentioned solutions in the scenarios
• Are solar power generation costs of 50 – 60 €/MWh (in the mid- to long-term)
really too high?
• Additionally, we need sustainable solutions for the power, heat and mobility
42 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Solar in the Nordic – Status and Dynamic
source: Kosonen A., Ahola J., Breyer Ch., Albó A., 2014. Large Scale Solar Power Plant in Nordic
Conditions, 16th EU Conference on Power Electronics and Applications, August 26-28, accepted
Based on:
• IEA-PVPS, 2013
• EPIA, 2014
• Werner C., et al.,
2013
• Kosonen A., et
al., 2014
Based on:
• Pleßmann G., et
al., 2013
• Kosonen A., et
al., 2014
43 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Agenda
Status and Dynamics of solar PV Diffusion
Grid-Parity
Vision behind
High shares of Renewables in the System
Solar PV in the Nordic
Summary
44 Solar PV Market Potential Globally and in Finland
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Summary
Solar PV diffusion trend is stable for decades (leaning rate,
growth rate, cost reduction)
More and more market segments become profitable
Solar PV is a major part of the complex energy system
PV and Wind emerge to the backbone of global energy supply
100% RE system is feasible: technical, economical, ecological
RPM is needed to achieve 100% RES based energy supply
Long-term market potential is huge: some TWp up to 100 TWp
Nordic PV markets: Grid-Parity will accelerate the growth
Thanks for your attention!