Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry...

8/19/2019 Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry Directions 2016

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Transport Industry Directions 2016:Philippine Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook

Emmanuel ! Es"uerra#ecretary of #ocio$Economic Policy and Plannin"

%ational Economic and De&elopment 'uthority

08 March 2016


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I! Economic Performance and achie&ements


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-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

6-yr moving average 6.2% 2010-2015 ave

Average growth in 2010-2015 is the highest 6-yearaverage growth since the mid-1970s.

Source: NEDA Staff calculations

1971-1976;1972-1977;

1973-1978

2010-2015

3

in %Rea !"# growth $6-year moving average%


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1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-20150.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

griculture !n"ustryServices

Supply Side

1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015-2.0

-1.00.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

#et e$%orts !nvestment&overnment 'onsum%tion

Demand Side

&nvestment and ind'stry are increasing y(ecoming ma)or drivers o* !"# growth.

2.8%

4.5%

6.2%

2.8%

4.5%

6.2%ve.

gro(t)


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Industry De&elopment is (ettin" ' )i" Push

Industry *oadmaps: 35 total sectoralroadmaps, 29 of which are completed s!ch asma"!fact!ri"#, chemicals, copper prod!cts,r!$$er prod!cts, %&'()M, electro"ics,aerospace, amo"# others* while 6 are still$ei"# fi"ali+ed &hese sectoral roadmaps arethe $!ildi"# $loc-s of the Ma"!fact!ri"#%"d!str. /oadmap M%/* a"d the

omprehe"si e Natio"al %"d!strial Strate#.N%S

Manufacturin" *esur"ence Pro"ram ' willre$!ild the e isti"# capacit. of i"d!stries,stre"#the" "ew o"es, a"d mai"tai" thecompetiti e"ess of i"d!stries with comparati ead a"ta#e &he #oals close the #aps i" thes!ppl. chai", pro ide access to raw materials,a"d e pa"d domestic mar-ets a"d e ports

2000-2009 2010-20150

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Manufacturin" contri+ution to (ro,th

The economy is no, on a hi"her "ro,th tra-ectory ,ith increasin"contri+ution from the manufacturin" sector


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+o'rth ,'arter +

201 2015 201 2015

/' y sidegriculture 4.2 -0.3 1.6 0.2

!n"ustry 9.1 6.8 7.9 6.0o.(. *anu+acturing 7.7 6.6 8.3 5.7Services 5.6 7.4 5.9 6.7

"emand side,rivate consum tion 5.0 6.4 5.4 6.2&overnment consum tion 9.4 17.4 1.7 9.4

'a ital ormation 3.0 13.5 5.4 13.6 o.(. i$e" ca ital+ormation 8.0 22.5 6.8 14.0

$ orts 12.8 7.1 11.3 5.5!m orts 9.9 13.3 8.7 11.9

!R // " /4&

#R " 4 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.8Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)

!rowth o* !"# (y om onent $ %

Recent er*ormance indicates that the economy smoment'm remains intact


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Source: ,)ili ine Statistics ut)ority

/ur vi rant economy is ro"ucing more an" etter o s...Unemployment and Underemployment

rates $ %

Employment Generated 2010-2015(‘000)

ationa conomic and "eve o ment A'thority

6nem0 oyment $7%6nderem0 oyment $7%

6nem0 oyment Rate

3m oyment !enerated $:000%

#otes:a )e 2014 S estimate is t)e average o+ ril uly an" /ct roun"s e$clu"ing eyte "ata

)e 2015 S estimates is t)e average o+ t)e an to /ct 2015 roun"s e$clu"ing eyte "atac 2015 em loyment generation estimate is t)e average o+ ril uly an" /ct e$clu"ing eyte "ata

1997-2005: "o tion o+ o ulation ro ection enc)mar is ase" on t)e results o+ t)e 1995 'ensus2006-current: "o tion o+ o ulation ro ection enc)mar ase" on t)e results o+ t)e 2000 'ensus


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0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

0,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

E t er " al De $t to D) /a ti o ' 7 8S ! r re "t A cc o! "t to D) /a ti o ' /8S

Positi&e .urr ent 'cct! / Declinin" E0terna l De+t

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

0200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

'as):emittances

; ?S

.ontinuous remittances amidst slo,do,n indeployment

? @ ,? !A B# S& !# '? C *-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140125.1

85.0

47.5

8.6 7.5 6.5 3.4 2.0 1.4

;8.6>

'&era"e (ro,th of DI 2012$201

urce: Dang o Sentral ng ,ili inas

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 an-#ov 20150

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

&ncreasing et +"&

#e t A! ; gro(t) ;%>

*o+ust E ternal Position


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9

Our stron"er fiscal position has +een reco"ni3ed "arnerin" anin&estment$"rade so&erei"n credit ratin" for the first time in our history!

Modest fscal defcit; Declining Public debt & interest payments; Increasing reliance on domestic fnancingResult: resilient fscal position

iscal side :

iscal,osition

#ational &overnment Dorro(ing ,rogram ;%>

S)are o+ e$ en"itures allocate" to interest ayments

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.0080.00

#ational govEt outstan"ing "e t ;% o+ &A,>

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.020.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

14.5

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

65.0 65.6 65.283.6

93.972.1

60.774.9

84.5

35.0 34.4 34.816.4

6.127.9

39.325.1

15.5

oreign Aomestic

;10.00>

;5.00>

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

iscal ,osition evenue Fort a$ Fort


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!rowth-enhanced sca s ace has a owed ma)orinvestments in in*rastr'ct're with s ending onin*rastr'ct're more than tri ing...

Source: Ae artment o+ Du"get an" *anagement

#'( ic in*rastr'ct're s ending< =n #h#and o* !"#

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

306.9 346.2 595.8 766.5 876.6 1018.7

2.7 2.7

4.3

5.05.2

5.4

ctual ;2013-2014> ,rogram;2015> ,ro ose";2016> ,ro ections;2017-2018> atio to &A, ;r)s>


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>com emented (y rivate investments in'( ic in*rastr'ct'reStatus o! """ "ro#ects (as o! 1$ e%ruary201$)

Source: ,,, 'enterationa conomic and "eve o ment A'thority

#ro)ects (y /tat's o. o*#ro)ectsAmo'nt

$#?# (n%#ro)ects nder &m ementation

'ontract (ar"e" 12 196.53 /t)er ro ects un"er !m lementation 2 106.73### #i e ine

,ro ects un"er ,rocurement 14 556.6 ,ro ects +or oll-out 2 66.1 or roval o+ elevant &overnment

Do"ies

5101.94

,ro ects (it) /ngoing Stu"ies 2 539.41 or ,rocurement o+ 'onsultants to

'on"uct ,re-investment Stu"ies5 #

,ro ects


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4nderpinned +y stron"er links +et,een In&estmentPro"rammin" and )ud"etin"

< "ate o+ t)e'om re)ensive an"

!ntegrate"!n+rastructure

,rogram ;'!!,> atleast once a year.

!m lementation o+ )ree ear!n+rastructure olling

,rogram ; !,> y

uly 2016


13/25Source: omprehensi!e & Integrated In"rastructure Program ( IIP) : PhP# $%# n (as o"

4ota &n*rastr'ct're&nvestment (y /ector $2013-

2016 and (eyond%

=' @ o* which are s ated *or trans ortation< socia <and energy in*rastr'ct'res..

4o 10 Agencies with the argest&nvestment

ReB'irements in the &Ran@ ame o*Agency

C o*#ro)ects

&nvestmentost

$in 4ho'sand#h#%

1 A,@? 323 2 269.35

2 A/ ' 588 1 397.763 A/ 275 1 327.064 A/? 39 503.715 Ae " 7 310.776 /, S * 258 234.877 D'A 14 210.228 ?


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urce: Amended *inali+ed IIP (as o" May %' )

4hese ro)ects are *'nded most y (y the nationagovernment>


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Multimodal Transport&he )hilippi"e De elopme"t )la" 2011'2016ide"tified the "eed to de elop a"d impro elo#istics i"frastr!ct!re $.

)ro idi"# i"terco""ecti it. i" e"tral 7!+o",Metro Ma"ila a"d A7A(A/:;N

De elopi"# a seamless m!ltimodal lo#istics

s.stem alo"# S!$ic' lar-'Ma"ila'(ata"#ascorridor

E"ha"ci"# i"ter'isla"d lo#istics


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*ecent Efforts for Transport #ystems De&elopment#rogramE/t'dy +oc's Area

)e Survey on *in"anao ogistics!n+rastructure #et(or ;S* !#>

ogistics !n+rastructure System in*in"anao

)e rans ort !n+rastructureoa"ma +or *etro *anila an" !ts

Surroun"ing reas ; egions !!! an"!B- > ; oa"ma >

!n+rastructure System to a""resscongestion in *etro *anila an" itssurroun"ing areas

Ae artment o+ ourism ;A/ >-Ae artment o+ ,u lic @or s an"?ig)(ays ;A,@?> 'onvergence,rogram ;'onvergence ,rogram>

ogistics !n+rastructure rovi"ing roa"access to +rom tourist "estination areasan" ot)er trans ort in+rastructuressuc) as orts an" air orts

*aster ,lan on ?ig) Stan"ar"?ig)(ay ;?S?> #et(orAevelo ment

oa" net(or an" routes +or ?S?(it)in t)e s )ere o+ 200- m ra"ius+rom *etro *anila to meet +uture traHc"eman"

Aata 'ollection Survey onAisaster- esilient ee"er ,orts an"

ogistics #et(or

Aisaster-resilient net(or o+ +ee"erorts to ensure a secure an" smoot)

logistics even in time o+ "isaster


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*oadmap for Transport Infrastructure De&elopment for Metro Manila andIts #urroundin" 'reas

/tat's o* /hort- term &nvestment #rograms

ompleted )ro


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Multimodal Transport rame,ork'#E'% rame,ork '"reement onMultimodal Transport

&he a#reeme"t reco#"i+es the "eed tode elop a" eco"omic a"d efficie"tm!ltimodal tra"sport ser ices to e pa"dtrade $etwee" mem$er states a"d thirdco!"tries


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2012 201

International 8PI score 5!02 5!0

!stoms 2 63 3 0

%"frastr!ct!re 2 8 2 6

Ease of arra"#i"# shipme"ts 2 9 3 33

!alit. of lo#istic ser ices 3 14 2 93

&rac-i"# a"d traci"# 3 3 3 0

&imeli"ess 3 3 3 0

Philippines9 8o"istics Performance +y area

Source: @orl" Dan ogistics ,er+ormance !n"e$


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II! Prospects and .hallen"es


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@ra#ile #rowth i" Bapa"Slowdow" i" lar#e emer#i"# eco"omies, partic!larl. hi"a

As."chro"o!s mo"etar. policies i" ma


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%ear$term E pected Dri&ers of (ro,th

Supply side

7ower petrole!m prices(!si"ess )rocess Ma"a#eme"t ()M* f!eli"# #rowth i" the real estate, re"ti"#,a"d $!si"ess acti ities sector

o"str!ctio" a"d i"frastr!ct!re de elopme"t

%"ter"atio"al a"d domestic to!rism

Cholesale a"d retail trade

Ma"!fact!ri"# res!r#e"ce

Demand side

o!sehold co"s!mptio" remitta"ce i"flows, stro"# co"s!mer co"fide"ce, lowi"flatio" re#ime

o er"me"t spe"di"# e pa"sio" of social protectio" pro#rams i e &, '12,)hilhealth co era#e, etc*

%" estme"t p!$lic co"str!ctio", i"cl!di"# i"frastr!ct!re a"d reco"str!ctio" pri ateco"str!ctio"

E ports of ser ices #ood prospects for ()M a"d to!rism

22


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.lose the infrastructure "ap

Maintain hi"h le&els of pu+lic in&estments in human capitalparticularly in health and education

In&est in disaster resiliency

Promote more sustaina+le production and consumptionpatterns

#tren"then institutions

Promote healthy competition

oster inno&ation culture

Encoura"e entrepreneurship

;o, do ,e keep the momentum in 2016 and +eyond<


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Chat it is e" isio"ed to $e F %tGs a lo"#'term 25 .ears* isio" for the )hilippi"es F %tGs a $asis of !"it. amo"# @ilipi"os F A #!ide for de elopme"t pla""i"# across

admi"istratio"s F A #!ide for i"ter"atio"al de elopme"t assista"ce

24

+i i ino 20 0F ong-term Bision $ercise


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ransport Industry Directions 2016:hilippine Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook

Emmanuel ! Es"uerra#ecretary of #ocio$Economic Policy and Plannin"

%ational Economic and De&elopment 'uthority

08 March 2016

Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry...

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Transcript of Socio-economic Planning Secretary Dr Emmanuel Esguerra presentation on Philippine Transport Industry...