Dr. Emmanuel F. EsguerraDeputy Director GeneralDeputy Director GeneralNational Economic and Development Authority

Dr. Emmanuel Esguerra is Deputy Director-General of the National Economic and Development Authority He heads the National Development Office (NDO) for Policy and Planning His officeAuthority. He heads the National Development Office (NDO) for Policy and Planning. His office provides technical staff support in coordinating the formulation of national and sectoral policies, plans and programs to the NEDA Board, which is headed by the President of the Republic. NDO also monitors macroeconomic and sectoral performance, and conducts economic and development studies on macro level plans and policieson macro level plans and policies.

Dr. Esguerra is an Associate Professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics, where he was Chair of the Economics Department prior to his appointment to NEDA in July 2012. Labour, Development and Public Economics are his areas of research interest He was also editor of theDevelopment, and Public Economics are his areas of research interest. He was also editor of the Philippine Review of Economics from 2001 to 2010.

Mr. Esguerra has done consulting work with multilateral agencies, such as the Asian Development Bank United Nations Development Program International Labour Organization and the World BankBank, United Nations Development Program, International Labour Organization, and the World Bank.

THE PHILIPPINE DEVELOPMENT PLANTHE PHILIPPINE DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011-2016 MIDTERM UPDATE

Emmanuel F. EsguerraDeputy Director-General for Planning and Policy

DBP Developmental ForumDBP Head Office, Makati City

15 July 201315 July 2013

Plan Targets

Halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

Achieve universal primary education

R d b 2/3 d 5 t lit

Eliminate gender disparity

Reduce by 2/3 under-5 mortality rate

Reduce by 3 quarters the maternal mortality ratio

6 8 7 2 Halt spread of HIV & AIDS

Halve the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water & basic sanitation

6.8‐7.2% Unemployment Rate

sanitation

Where are we now

7.3% (S1 2013)Unemployment rate

20.0 % (S1 2013)

6.8% (2012)7.8%  (Q1 2013)GDP Growth

27.9% (S1 2012)            28.6% (S1 2009)Poverty Rate

19.6%  (2012)21.2% (Q1 2013)Fixed Capital as ratio  ( )

Underemployment rateGDP Growth yp

to GDP

Recent Growth Performance (%)

2011 2012Q1 2012

Q1 2013

2011 20122012 2013

Gross Domestic3 9 6 6 6 5 7 8

Product3.9 6.6 6.5 7.8

Net Primary Income 1 0 3 3 1 9 3 2Net Primary Income  1.0 3.3 1.9 3.2Gross National 

3 2 5 8 5 7 7 1Income 

3.2 5.8 5.7 7.1

Source: NSCB

Latest Employment StatisticsIndicator Ave 2010 Ave 2012 Ave 2012 

(Jan&Apr) Ave 2013 (Jan&Apr)

Labor Force Level (‘000)   38,893  40,432  40,435  40,870 

Employment Level (‘000)   36,035  37,607  37,587  37,880 

Wage and salary workers (%share to total employment) 

54.5  56.8  55.5 58.8

U l L l (‘000) 2 859 2 825 2 848 2 990Unemployment Level (‘000) 2,859  2,825  2,848  2,990 

Unemployment Rate (%)   7.3  7.0  7.0  7.3 

Underemployment Level (‘000) 6 762 7 509 7 165 7 593Underemployment Level ( 000) 6,762  7,509  7,165  7,593 

Underemployment Rate (%) 18.8  20.0  19.1  20.0 

Source: Labor Force Survey, National Statistics Office6

Toward Inclusive Growth

First Semester Poverty Incidence Magnitude of Poor among Population

35

40

First Semester Poverty Incidence Among Population (%)

35 0

40.0 

Magnitude of Poor among Population (Millions)

28.8 28.6 27.9

16 620

25

30

35

25.0  26.1  26.5 

20 0

25.0 

30.0 

35.0 

16.6

5

10

15

20

10.0 

15.0 

20.0 

0

5

S1 2006 S1 2009 S1 2012 FY 2015‐

5.0 

S1 2006 S1 2009 S1 2012

Lessons Learned: Midterm Assessment of PDP 2011 2016PDP 2011-2016

• Good governance has proven to be an effective platform hi h t t i h ld b i l t dupon which strategies should be implemented.

• Macroeconomic (fiscal, financial, external) and political stability fuels positive expectations that lead to growthstability fuels positive expectations that lead to growth.

• Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient for poverty reductionpoverty reduction.

• Growth strategies need to have spatial and sectoral dimensions to ensure inclusivitydimensions to ensure inclusivity.

• Disasters can negate the gains and even push back development.p

8

Strategic Thrust 2013-2016 (with sectoral and spatial focus)

• Accelerate infrastructure development• Ensure policy consistency and reduce regulatory burdenEnsure policy consistency and reduce regulatory burden• Continue investing in human capital to arrest the inter-

generational transmission of povertyg p y• Promote new growth drivers (agri/agribusiness, tourism,

IT/BPM in next wave cities, manufacturing, infra/logistics)• Complete the implementation of asset reform, particularly

individual titling of lands under CARP/CARPer• Enhance social protection against income and

employment shocks especially for the most vulnerable• Improve resilience to natural disasters

MASSIVE EMPLOYMENT GENERATION AND SUBSTANTIAL POVERTY REDUCTION

MASSIVE EMPLOYMENT GENERATION AND SUBSTANTIAL POVERTY REDUCTION

Good Governance

jobs of HQ in 2nd tier areas

jobs of HQ in satellite areas

Social Services and Protection (health basic educationGovernance 

(Property Rights, 

Regulatory  POSITIVE ACTION (Spatial and Sectoral Dimensions)POSITIVE ACTION (Spatial and Sectoral Dimensions)

2 tier areas)

(health, basic education, social insurance)

g yEfficiency, Alignment of policies)

POSITIVE ACTION (Spatial and Sectoral Dimensions)POSITIVE ACTION (Spatial and Sectoral Dimensions)

Rapid and sustained growthRapid and sustained growth Market demand

National Security,  Investmentsjobs of HQ in 

1 t i

demand

and

E l i l Boost Improve access

Science, technology ,innovation

1st tier areas

Ecological Integrity

Boost competitiveness

Improve access to financing

Education and skill set of the workforce

Macroeconomic Stability (fiscal, monetary, external, financial)

Infrastructure10

PH performance in comparison to selected economiesselected economies45

Share of  Total Investment in GDP 

3735 35

32 3335

2730

39

2930

35

40

23 2425

21 2219

26 27

23

20

25

30

5

10

15

02010 2011 2012

India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnamy pp

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2013

Infrastructure spending (% of GDP)p g ( )12

8

10

6

8Thailand

Philippines

Malaysia

2

4Malaysia

India

02009 2010

Source: WB;  no data available for Vietnam and Indonesia

New growth driversInfrastructure

PPP Infrastructure Projects*: •Daang Hari – SLEX Link Road •Cavite Laguna (expressway•Cavite-Laguna (expressway, LRT)

•Angat, Bulacan (hydro power plant)

•PPP for School Infra Projects (Phases1&2)

•Cebu (Airport)•Cagayan de Oro (airport)

*awarded projects and projects with live bidding

PDP Midterm Updateo Agriculture/ Agribusinesso Manufacturingo Tourismo Tourismo Infrastructure/Logisticso Housingo IT/BPM

New growth driversTourism

Tourism Development Areas: • Ilocos Norte•Central Luzon•Metro Manila & CALABARZON•Biocl Region•Wester Visayas•Palawan

l•Central Visayas•Northern Mindanao•Zamboanga•Davao 

PDP Midterm Updateo Agriculture/ Agribusinesso Manufacturingo Tourismo Tourismo Infrastructure/Logisticso Housingo IT/BPM

New growth driversE i fExpansion of

BPMExpansion of

BPMBPO Next Wave Cities: •Cordillera-Ilocos (San F d L U iFernando, La Union, Dagupan, Baguio City)

•Central Luzon (Angeles/Clark, Cabanatuan, Olongapo/SubicOlongapo/Subic, Tarlac)

•Western Visayas(Bacolod City, Ilo-ilo)

•Central Visayas (Cebu, Lapu-lapu, Mandaue, Dumaguete, Tagbilaran)

•Davao-GenSan75% of IT75% of IT‐‐BPO jobs are in NCRBPO jobs are in NCR

PDP Midterm Updateo Agriculture/ Agribusinesso Manufacturingo Tourismo Tourismo Infrastructure/Logisticso Housingo IT/BPM

New growth drivers

Logistics

PDP Midterm Updateo Agriculture/ Agribusinesso Manufacturingo Tourismo Tourismo Infrastructure/Logisticso Housingo IT/BPO