Small Cells Industry Update

Gordon Mansfield

Chairman Small Cell Forum &

AVP Small Cell Solutions AT&T

December 3, 2013

gordon@smallcellforum.org www.smallcellforum.org

© Small Cell Forum Ltd 2013

The Small Cell Forum

AimsTo accelerate small cell adoption to change the shape of mobile networks and maximise the potential of the mobile internet

Not-for-profit, founded in 2007

Independent, Inclusive, International

Ecosystem Development

Market Education

Driving open standards

67 operators covering 3 billion global mobile subscribers – 44% of total

83 providers of small cell technology representing all parts of the

ecosystem

*As of September 2013

FY 2013 Summary

• 56+ operators incorporate small cells in their network today.

• 44+ operators offer a residential femtocell to end users

• 26+ operators use an enterprise femtocell

• 17+ operators are working with urban small cells for capacity

Market Status Report (1/4)

Source: Mobile Experts, December 2013

As of October 2013:

• 7.2 million residential femtocells deployed

• 168,000 indoor small cells deployed

• 2,700 outdoor small cells deployed

Market Status Report (2/4)

Source: Mobile Experts, December 2013

3,919,478

26,025

861,810

433,965

1,072,120

687,525 N America

L America

Europe

China

APAC

MEA

13,47817,663

30,245

229,178

350

Installed base indicated for October 1, 2013

Total Small Cells Non-Residential Small Cells

Market Status Report (3/4)

Source: Mobile Experts, December 2013

Market Status Report (4/4)

Market Forecast

Source: Mobile Experts, December 2013

Dense OutdoorHot Spots

IndoorHot Spots

Rural Areas

Residential

2

4

-5 +5 +15

Peak d

ata

effi

ciency

(b

ps/

Hz)

Signal-to-noise ratio (dB)

Limits of 2G, 3G, 4G

Shannon Bound

Infeasible region

EV-DO

LTE

HSDPA

Coverage Holes due to Regulatory Constraints

GOAL: COST EFFECTIVELY ADD CAPACITY TO IMPROVE END-USER QoE AND OPERATOR PROFITABILITY

SPECTRUM EXHAUST

SITES: COVERAGE / CAPACITY

THREE KEY CHALLENGES FACING OPERATORS

AT&T 30,000% increase in mobile data traffic over past 6 years

LTE user experience improvements with small cells (co-channel)

% in

crea

se in

med

ian

thro

ughp

ut

over

mac

roce

lls a

lone

Small Cells per Macrocell1 2 4 10

193%300%

467%

960%

Assumptions:• TR36.814 at 700MHz• 2x1 watt cell Tx Power

• SCF work given structure & direction by Release Programme

• Goal: to accelerate small cell adoption across all major use cases.

• Publish new releases when significant body of work completed.

• This serves as the theme for the Release.

Our Release Program: How it works

Timetable

• 25 new documents covering technical & business

• Unlock the commercial potential of small cells within enterprises

• 11.5M non-residential indoor small cells To be deployed by 2018

Announced Today – SCF Release 2

Release 2 Documents

Small Cells, what's the big idea?

SCF Release Structure and Roadmap

Enterprise overview E-SCN Use Cases and

Requirements Enterprise Market Drivers Enterprise Business Case Wi-Fi/Cellular simulations Wi-Fi/Cellular radio co-

existence in enterprise products

Enterprise Reference Scenarios

Enterprise SON use cases E-SCN Network

Architectures E-SCN IT Considerations for

Enterprise Small Cells E-SCN and Shared Network

Requirements Security WP (internal

document) Synchronization for

Enterprise Deployments Multi-technology (3G+LTE)

Whitepaper Non-traditional enterprise

coverage extension solutions

Regulatory White Paper Backhaul for Enterprise

topic brief Small Cell Enterprise

Deployment Issues Enterprise Services

Leveraging Small Cells Unified Communication

Services and Small Cells

www.scf.io

Release Two: Enterprise A Peek Inside

• 39%-61% of offices have noticeably poor in-building coverage1

• Over 80% of total mobile data traffic is indoors2

• Serving in-building traffic from outdoors places a heavy load on operator spectrum, reducing potential efficiency3

• 87% of businesses would switch provider to guarantee coverage4

1YouGov Research, Feb 2013, figures for UK and US respectively2 Paolini, M. “Mobile data moves indoors”, September 2011 3 Signals Research Group: “Valuable Licensed Spectrum is a Largely Under-Utilized Asset Indoors”, Feb 20134 Alcatel-Lucent study Feb 2013

Release Two: Key findings summary

• Release Two business case finds compelling commercial argument for small cells in almost every enterprise context.

• In fact in almost all the enterprise deployments modeled, the payback period for both the operator and the enterprise was found to be less than a year.

Release Two: Key Findings Summary

For Enterprises:

•Essential to provide coverage that addresses their business needs

High Quality Voice is Essential

•Opportunity for value-added services

For Operators:

• Can deploy small cells quickly and easily at relatively low cost

• Establish strategic relationship by providing services in demand

• Huge opportunity for those who move quickly to gain market share

For Small Cell Vendors:

• Products must provide high quality voice

• Opportunity to develop for value-added data services

How to get involved: Release Three in progress

Upcoming Events•Mobile World Congress, Barcelona, February, 2014•Small Cell Forum PlugFest, TBD, April 2014•Small Cells Asia – Bangkok, Thailand April, 2014•Small Cell World Summit – London UK, June 2014

We welcome your membership & participation!!!

Thank you!

www.smallcellforum.org