SIPR Dundee

Scottish Flood Forecasting Service

Pete Buchanan – Met Office

Richard Maxey – SEPA

SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011

SFFS

The ‘Weather Machine’

OBSERVATI0NS

DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS

Observations – Monitoring and Validation

Lightning DetectionWeather Radar

Weather Station Satellite Data

River Gauges

Deterministic Forecasts - First ‘Guess’ machine data

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Gives us an initial look at the ‘what’ (type of precipitation, intensity and amount), the ‘where’, the ‘when’ and ‘how much’?

Various models, diagnostics and post processing including wave, currents and surge for coastal forecasting

Hydrological Models

Objective look at the impacts of the weather on river flows and flood risk

Probabilistic Forecasts – What is the likelihood of it happening?

We can objectively measure the probability of critical events occurring by analysing the uncertainty in a particular forecast.

When matched with impact, the overall risk can be assessed.

As with the deterministic weather data, probabilistic weather data can be fed into the hydrological models to look a range of outcomes for the hydrological forecasts and hence build probabilities of critical river thresholds being exceeded.

REAL WORLD

MACHINE WORLD

EXPERT GUIDANCE

HYDROLOGIST

METEOROLOGIST

FLOOD GUIDANCE STATEMENT (FGS)

INPUTS ANALYSIS OUTPUT

CONSULTATION IMPROVEMENTS DEVELOPMENTS

SEPA FLOOD ADVISORS

MET OFFICE PWS ADVISORS

SFFS OPERATIONAL TEAMS

USERS

CASE STUDIES

WORKSHOPS

STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS

TRAINING

LIAISON

REFINING

PRODUCING

FEEDBACK TO SCIENTISTS

FEEDBACK TO MODELERS

REVIEW PRODUCTS AND METHODS

INTRODUCE NEW TECHNOLOGY

SFFS Operational Support

-24 HR watch and technical support

-Strong and effective partnership between Met Office, SEPA and Stakeholders

What is likely to happen in the future?Supercomputer Upgrade

IBM Power 7 upgrade in 2011 will triple Met Office supercomputer capacity. This will pave the way for significant science and capability developments during 2012 and beyond.

Exploiting Uncertainty

New, sophisticated high resolution ensemble forecasting systems will improve the forecasting of the probability of a significant event occurring - giving us even more confidence in the Flood Guidance Statement status.

‘Strategic Intervention’ will enable the Chief Forecaster to choose the best data for downstream product generation

+

Flood vigilance and early alerting

• Raise early awareness of potential flooding through a 5 day flood forecast

• Flood Alert stage to warn people of the possibility of flooding

SEPA Flood Forecasting Hydrologist

Normally based in Perth

On call

Met Office Public Weather Desk

Based in Aberdeen

24 hour shift working

Flood Guidance Statement

Flood Guidance Statement

• Flood risk for next 5 days

• Colour coded

• Rivers, Coastal, Surface Water

• Issued daily (or more frequently)

• Spatial detail depends on lead time

• Issued to Cat 1 & 2 responders and SEPA

• Days 1 and 2

• Flood Alert areas

• Days 3, 4, 5

• Strategic Coordination Group areas

Flood Risk Matrix

Daily production

• SEPA and Met Office telephone discussions

• Final issue by 1030

• 365 days a year

• Afternoon and evening updates when appropriate

Distribution

Flood Alerts

• Early awareness of possible flooding

• Be vigilant, prepare for flooding

• Cover the whole of Scotland

• Medium risk (amber) corresponds to Flood Alert

• Issued by SFFS via Floodline Warnings Direct

Future challenges• Scotland-wide gridded

model

• Forecasts “everywhere”

• Probabilistic forecasting

• Snow melt

• Short duration intense rainfall events

SCOTTISH FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICE