Simulations for a Houston ozone Simulations for a Houston ozone episode & the NYC DHS MSG episode & the NYC DHS MSG

tracer study with an urbanized tracer study with an urbanized MM5 MM5

R. BornsteinR. Bornstein**, R. Balmori , R. Balmori

E. Weinroth, H. TahaE. Weinroth, H. Taha

San Jose State UniversitySan Jose State University

San Jose, CASan Jose, CA

**pblmodel@hotmail.com

Presented atPresented atAMS Urban-Coastal ConferenceAMS Urban-Coastal Conference

Sept 2007Sept 2007

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements Data Data

S. Burian, J. ChingS. Burian, J. Ching TCEQ, USFSTCEQ, USFS D. ByunD. Byun

Urbanization scheme ofUrbanization scheme of A. MartilliA. Martilli S. DupontS. Dupont

Funds:Funds: Past:Past: NSF, USAID, DHS NSF, USAID, DHS Pending:Pending: DTRA DTRA

OUTLINEOUTLINE

IntroductionIntroduction Current uMM5 ApplicationsCurrent uMM5 Applications

Houston ozoneHouston ozone NYC tracer studyNYC tracer study

Future: uWRFFuture: uWRF ConclusionConclusion

Recent Meso-met Model Urbanization

Need to urbanizeNeed to urbanize momentum, thermo , & TKE momentum, thermo , & TKE surface & SfcBL diagnostic-Eqs.surface & SfcBL diagnostic-Eqs. PBL prognostic-Eqs. PBL prognostic-Eqs.

Start: Start: veg-canopycanopy model (Yamada 1982) model (Yamada 1982) Veg-param Veg-param replacedreplaced with GIS/RS with GIS/RS

urban-param/data urban-param/data Brown and Williams (1998)Brown and Williams (1998) Masson (2000)Masson (2000) Martilli et al. (2001) in Martilli et al. (2001) in TVM/URBMETTVM/URBMET Dupont, Ching,Dupont, Ching, et al. (2003) in et al. (2003) in EPA/MM5EPA/MM5 Taha et al. (2005), Balmori et al. (2006) in Taha et al. (2005), Balmori et al. (2006) in

uMM5:uMM5:detailed input urban-parameters as f(x,y)

for our two applications

uMM5 for HoustonuMM5 for HoustonGoal:Goal: Accurate urban/rural temps & winds for Accurate urban/rural temps & winds for

Aug 2000 OAug 2000 O33 episode via episode via uMM5uMM5 Houston Houston LU/LC & urban morphology LU/LC & urban morphology

parameters from S. Burianparameters from S. Burian TexAQS2000TexAQS2000 field-study data field-study data USFS USFS urban-reforestation scenarios urban-reforestation scenarios

UHI & OUHI & O33 changes changes

uMM5 Simulation period: uMM5 Simulation period: 22-26 August22-26 August

20002000 Model configuration Model configuration

5 domains: 108, 36, 12, 4, 5 domains: 108, 36, 12, 4, 1 km1 km (x, y) grid points: (x, y) grid points:

(43x53, 55x55, 100x100, 136x151, 133x141(43x53, 55x55, 100x100, 136x151, 133x141 full-full- levels: 29 in D 1-4 & 49 in D-5; levels: 29 in D 1-4 & 49 in D-5; lowest ½ lowest ½

level=7 mlevel=7 m 2-way feedback in D 1-42-way feedback in D 1-4

Parameterizations/physics optionsParameterizations/physics options > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> Grell cumulus (D 1-2) > ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > > Gayno-Seaman PBLGayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > urbanization module> urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative

coolingcooling InputsInputs

> NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > Burian > Burian morphologymorphology from from LIDAR building-data in D-5LIDAR building-data in D-5

> LU/LC modifications (from Byun)> LU/LC modifications (from Byun)

GC GC influences: smallinfluences: small Air-mass movement: Air-mass movement:

First First along-shorealong-shore (to west) from: flow along(to west) from: flow along

N-edge of N-edge of cold-core atm-lowcold-core atm-low Then: Ship-Channel to Houston by Then: Ship-Channel to Houston by

Bay BreezeBay Breeze & & UHI-convergence UHI-convergence max Omax O33 Finally: to NW of Houston Finally: to NW of Houston by Gulf Breezeby Gulf Breeze

D-5: UTC episode-day obs of meso Omeso O33 transport-patterns: transport-patterns:

influences of sea breeze & UHI-convergence

Episode-day Episode-day Synoptics:Synoptics: 8/25, 12 UTC (08 8/25, 12 UTC (08 DST)DST)

HH HH

700 hPa 700 hPa Surface Surface

700 hPa & sfc GC H’s: at weakest (no gradient) over 700 hPa & sfc GC H’s: at weakest (no gradient) over Texas Texas meso-scale forcing (sea breeze & UHI convergence) meso-scale forcing (sea breeze & UHI convergence) dominates dominates

MM5: episode day, 3 MM5: episode day, 3 PMPM ( all graphs: flag = 5 ( all graphs: flag = 5 m/s)m/s)> D–1> D–1: reproduces : reproduces weak weak GC p-grad & flowGC p-grad & flow> D-2: > D-2: weak coastal-L weak coastal-L > D-3: > D-3: well-formed L well-formed L along-shore Valong-shore V

LL

D-1 D-2

D-3

Domain 4 (3 PM) :Domain 4 (3 PM) : cyclone off-Houston only on O cyclone off-Houston only on O33-day (25-day (25thth))

LL LL

EpisodeEpisode dayday

Urbanized Urbanized Domain 5:Domain 5: near-sfc 3-PM V, 4-days near-sfc 3-PM V, 4-days

EpisodeEpisode dayday

Cold-LCold-L

HotHot CoolCool

Along-shore flow, 8/25 (episode day): obs at 1500 Along-shore flow, 8/25 (episode day): obs at 1500 UTC vs uMM5 (D-5) at 2000 UTCUTC vs uMM5 (D-5) at 2000 UTC

Tx2000 obs

HGA obs

D-5 (red box) uMM5 captured HGA obs of along-shore flow (from SST- BC cold-low)

HGA Kriege

uMM5

C

1 km uMM5 Houston UHI: 8 PM, 21 1 km uMM5 Houston UHI: 8 PM, 21 AugAug

Upper L:Upper L: MM5MM5 UHI (2.0 UHI (2.0 K)K)

Upper R: Upper R: uMM5 uMM5 UHI (3.5 UHI (3.5 K)K)

Lower L: Lower L: ((uMM5-MM5)uMM5-MM5) UHIUHI

LU/LC LU/LC errorerror

8/23 Daytime 2-m UHI: 8/23 Daytime 2-m UHI: obs vs uMM5 (D-5)obs vs uMM5 (D-5)

H

OBS: 1 PMOBS: 1 PMuMM5: 3 PMuMM5: 3 PM

Cold

UHI

UHI

UHI-Induced UHI-Induced CConvergence: obs vs. uMM5onvergence: obs vs. uMM5

OBSERVEDOBSERVED uMM5uMM5

C

C

C

C

Base-case (current) veg-cover (0.1’s) urban min (red) rural max (green)

Modeled changes of veg-cover (0.01’s) > Urban-reforestation (green)> Rural-deforestation (purple)

min

maxincrease

Run 12 (urban reforestation) minus Run 10 (base case): Run 12 (urban reforestation) minus Run 10 (base case): 2-m ∆T at 4 PM2-m ∆T at 4 PM

reforested central urban-area reforested central urban-area coolscools & &surrounding deforested rural-areas surrounding deforested rural-areas warmwarm

UHI(t) for Base-case minus Runs 15-UHI(t) for Base-case minus Runs 15-1818

U1

sea

Ru

U2

• UHI =UHI = Average-T in urban-box minus that in Average-T in urban-box minus that in rural-box rural-box • Runs 15-18:Runs 15-18: different urban re-forestation different urban re-forestation scenariosscenarios• UHIUHI=Run-17 UHI minus Run-13 UHI (max =Run-17 UHI minus Run-13 UHI (max effect)effect) • Reduced UHIReduced UHI lower max-Olower max-O33 (not shown) (not shown)

EPA emission-reduction credits EPA emission-reduction credits $ $ savedsaved

Urban temp difference between runs at location 1 (3-pt smoothing)

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

20 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16

LST

Tdi

ff (K

)

run14-run13s

run15-run13s

run16-run13s

run17-run13s

run18-run13s

Max-impact of –0.9 K of a 3.5 K Noon-UHI, of which1.5 K was from uMM5

uMM5 for NYC DHS MSG uMM5 for NYC DHS MSG UDSUDS

Goal:Goal: Accurate urban/rural temps & Accurate urban/rural temps & winds winds

for for 9-15 March ‘05 tracer releases via uMM5uMM5 NYC NYC LU/LC & urban morphology LU/LC & urban morphology

parameters from S. Burianparameters from S. Burian DHS MSG UDS DHS MSG UDS field-study data field-study data

met met tracertracer

GC influences during tracer periodsGC influences during tracer periods Midtown: weak, slow synoptic speedMidtown: weak, slow synoptic speed MSG: strong, fast synoptic speedsMSG: strong, fast synoptic speeds

Sea breeze & UHI influencesSea breeze & UHI influences Midtown: strong, with UHI-convergence Midtown: strong, with UHI-convergence MSG: weak MSG: weak

Urban-barrier influencesUrban-barrier influences Midtown: weakMidtown: weak MSG: strong, with urban barrier divergenceMSG: strong, with urban barrier divergence

Modeling studies byModeling studies by Midtown: Pullen, Holt, Thompson at NRLMidtown: Pullen, Holt, Thompson at NRL MSG: This presentationMSG: This presentation

Obs of UDS Tracer Periods

NYC uMM5 DHS UDS MSG: NYC uMM5 DHS UDS MSG: 9-15 March9-15 March ‘05 ‘05 Model configuration Model configuration

4 domains: 36, 12, 4, 4 domains: 36, 12, 4, 1 km1 km (x, y) grid points: (x, y) grid points:

(110x85, 91x91, 91x91, 33x33)(110x85, 91x91, 91x91, 33x33) full-full- levels: 29 in D 1-3 & 48 in D-4; levels: 29 in D 1-3 & 48 in D-4; lowest ½ lowest ½

level=7 mlevel=7 m 2-way feedback in D 1-32-way feedback in D 1-3

Parameterizations/physics optionsParameterizations/physics options > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> Grell cumulus (D 1-2) > ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > > Gayno-Seaman PBLGayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > urbanization module> urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative

coolingcooling InputsInputs

> NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > Burian > Burian morphologymorphology from from LIDAR building-data in D-5LIDAR building-data in D-5

> LU/LC modifications (from Byun)> LU/LC modifications (from Byun)

D04

D034 MM5 domains

1900 UTC, 3/11/05, MM5 Domain 3: Sfc-T(K) 1900 UTC, 3/11/05, MM5 Domain 3: Sfc-T(K) & synoptic & synoptic wave-cyclonewave-cyclone V ( flag = 5 m/s) V ( flag = 5 m/s)

WWWW

CC

Concurrent Domain-4 uMM5 Streamlines Concurrent Domain-4 uMM5 Streamlines z = 60 m AGL & A-B is plane of following x-sectionz = 60 m AGL & A-B is plane of following x-section

A

BSlowing & divergence

Downwind convergence

Concurrent Domain-4 uMM5 Streamlines & Speed Concurrent Domain-4 uMM5 Streamlines & Speed (purple lines, m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m AGL (purple lines, m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m AGL

Note z-cells from urban-induced con- & divergence Note z-cells from urban-induced con- & divergence

A

60 m700 m

B

A

B

1000 m

Concurrent Domain 4 uMM5 Speed (m/s, where flag Concurrent Domain 4 uMM5 Speed (m/s, where flag = 5 m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m AGL= 5 m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m AGL

Note large urban zNote large urban z0 speed-min downwind of Manhattan & Brooklyn speed-min downwind of Manhattan & Brooklyn(this is high-speed, non-UHI period)(this is high-speed, non-UHI period)

slowslow slowslow

fastfastfastfast

Concurrent domain 4 uMM5 Div (1/s) & Wind Concurrent domain 4 uMM5 Div (1/s) & Wind (flag = 5 m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m (flag = 5 m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m

AGLAGL

Note convergence (C) over Manhattan, as roughness slows windNote convergence (C) over Manhattan, as roughness slows windAlso compensating divergence (D) around convergence areaAlso compensating divergence (D) around convergence area

CC

DD

CC

DD

DDDD

Concurrent Domain4- uMM5: w (m/s) & V (m/s) Concurrent Domain4- uMM5: w (m/s) & V (m/s) at 60 (left) and 700 (right) m AGLat 60 (left) and 700 (right) m AGL

Note up-motion (+) over Manhattan conv-area (of previous fig) Note up-motion (+) over Manhattan conv-area (of previous fig) & compensating down-motion (-) in div-area around Manhattan & compensating down-motion (-) in div-area around Manhattan

++-- ++-- ----

Pending: uWRFPending: uWRF uWRF with NCAR (F. Chen) for DTRAuWRF with NCAR (F. Chen) for DTRA

Martilli-Dupont urbanizationMartilli-Dupont urbanization Burian lidar urban-parameters as f(x,y)Burian lidar urban-parameters as f(x,y) Taha stat-generalization of Burian urban-Taha stat-generalization of Burian urban-

parameters for areas w/o lidar-obsparameters for areas w/o lidar-obs Freedman PBL-turbulence schemeFreedman PBL-turbulence scheme Zilitinkevich SfcBL stability-functions, zZilitinkevich SfcBL stability-functions, zoh, ,

etc.etc. Steyn diagnostic hSteyn diagnostic hi(x,y) scheme(x,y) scheme SST (x,y,t) from J. PullenSST (x,y,t) from J. Pullen

SJSU MM5 or uMM5 met output SJSU MM5 or uMM5 met output fields are availablefields are available

for ozone (design-day cases) and/or for ozone (design-day cases) and/or

4-D BCs for CFD &/or quick ER models 4-D BCs for CFD &/or quick ER models forfor

SFBA (MM5)SFBA (MM5) Houston (uMM5)Houston (uMM5) NYC (uMM5)NYC (uMM5) LA Basin (MM5)LA Basin (MM5) Israel (RAMS & MM5)Israel (RAMS & MM5)

ThanksThanksQuestions?Questions?