Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future
-
Upload
shea-rowland -
Category
Documents
-
view
19 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future
![Page 1: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Simulating and Forecasting Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the FutureRegional Climates of the Future
William J. Gutowski, Jr.William J. Gutowski, Jr.Dept. Geological & Atmospheric SciencesDept. Geological & Atmospheric Sciences
Dept. of AgronomyDept. of AgronomyIowa State UniversityIowa State University
Major contributions fromMajor contributions from::Z. Pan, R. W. Arritt, C. Anderson, F. Otieno, E. S. TakleZ. Pan, R. W. Arritt, C. Anderson, F. Otieno, E. S. Takle
Iowa State UniversityIowa State University
J. H. Christensen, O. B. ChristensenJ. H. Christensen, O. B. ChristensenDanish Meteorological Institute Danish Meteorological Institute
Copenhagen, DenmarkCopenhagen, Denmark
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
![Page 2: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• Regional Climate Models (RCMs)Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
– Why?Why?
– Physical BasisPhysical Basis
– Simulation Considerations
• A Norm to Evaluate Projected ChangeA Norm to Evaluate Projected Change
• Conclusions
OutlineOutline
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
![Page 3: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• Regional Climate Models (RCMs)Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
– Why?Why?
– Physical Basis
– Simulation Considerations
• A Norm to Evaluate Projected Change
• Conclusions
OutlineOutline
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
![Page 4: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Global Climate Models:
• nearly closed system
• complete representation
Why Regional Climate Models?Why Regional Climate Models?
![Page 5: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Global Climate Models:
• nearly closed system
• complete representation
Why Regional Climate Models?Why Regional Climate Models?
However:
• high computing demands
• limits resolution
• many surface features unresolved (esp. human-scale)
![Page 6: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Regional Climate Models:Regional Climate Models:
• sacrifice global coveragesacrifice global coverage
• higher resolutionhigher resolution
Why Regional Climate Models?Why Regional Climate Models?
![Page 7: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Global Global Model Model ResolutionResolution
X = 250 kmX = 250 km
contours every 250 m
TERRAIN HEIGHT
![Page 8: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
contours every 250 m
TERRAIN HEIGHT
Regional Regional Model Model ResolutionResolution
X = 50 kmX = 50 km
![Page 9: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
contours every 250 m
FutureFuture Model Model Resolution?Resolution?
X = 10 kmX = 10 km
TERRAIN HEIGHT
![Page 10: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
• Regional Climate Models (RCMs)Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
– Why?Why?
– Physical Basis
– Simulation Considerations
• A Norm to Evaluate Projected Change
• Conclusions
OutlineOutline
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
![Page 11: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
1. Conservation of Thermodynamic Energy (First Law of Thermodynamics)
2. Conservation of Momentum (Newton’s Second Law)
3. Conservation of Mass
RCM Foundation: Conservation Laws of Physics
![Page 12: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Conservation of “M”
ΔMΔt
=?
![Page 13: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Conservation of “M”
ΔMΔt
≠0
Source/sink≠0
![Page 14: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Conservation of “M”
ΔMΔt
≠0
![Page 15: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Conservation of “M”
ΔMΔt
≠0
![Page 16: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Conservation of “M”
Source/sink≠0
ΔMΔt
≠0
![Page 17: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
1. Conservation of Thermodynamic Energy (First Law of Thermodynamics):
Heat input = internal energy) + (work done)
RCM Foundation: Conservation Laws of Physics
Transport and accumulation by circulation
![Page 18: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
“Contact” heat exchange Radiation to/from surface
Heat Source/Sink
Condensation
Radiation to/from space
![Page 19: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
2. Conservation of Momentum (Newton’s Second Law):
wind)/ time) = forces)
RCM Foundation: Conservation Laws of Physics
![Page 20: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
3. Conservation of Mass:
Special constituent - water
RCM Foundation: Conservation Laws of Physics
![Page 21: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Evapotranspiration Precipitation
MoistureIn/Out
Δ Moisture( )Δt
≠0
![Page 22: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
EP P
Q Q
R
Water CycleWater Cycle
E
![Page 23: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
E
Water CycleWater Cycle
Heat absorbedHeat absorbed
Heat releasedHeat released
![Page 24: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Water is thus a primaryWater is thus a primary form of heat transportform of heat transport
heat absorbed when evaporates heat absorbed when evaporates
released when water condensesreleased when water condenses
largest individual source of energy largest individual source of energy
for the atmospherefor the atmosphere
![Page 25: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Water CycleWater Cycle
Radiation absorbed by water & re-emittedRadiation absorbed by water & re-emitted
![Page 26: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Water is thus a primaryWater is thus a primary form of heat transportform of heat transport
heat absorbed when evaporates heat absorbed when evaporates
released when water condensesreleased when water condenses
largest individual source of energy largest individual source of energy
for the atmospherefor the atmosphere
andand greenhouse gas greenhouse gas
~ transparent to solar~ transparent to solar
absorbs/emits infraredabsorbs/emits infrared
![Page 27: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
1. Conservation of Thermodynamic Energy (First Law of Thermodynamics)
2. Conservation of Momentum (Newton’s Second Law)
3. Conservation of Mass
Plus: Ideal Gas Law
RCM Foundation: Fundamental Laws of Physics
![Page 28: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
• Regional Climate Models (RCMs)Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
– Why?Why?
– Physical BasisPhysical Basis
– Simulation Considerations
• A Norm to Evaluate Projected Change
• Conclusions
OutlineOutline
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
![Page 29: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
EvapotranspirationEvapotranspiration
![Page 30: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
EvapotranspirationEvapotranspiration
E ~ - CW{eair-esat(Ts)}
![Page 31: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
CW = CW(atmos.)
but also
CW = CW(physiology)
soil moisture
CW leaf temp.
sunlight
CO2 level
EvapotranspirationEvapotranspiration
E ~ - CW{eair-esat(Ts)}
![Page 32: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
RCM Horizontal Grid
I
J(1,1)
(IMAX,JMAX)
![Page 33: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
RCM Horizontal Grid
I
J(1,1)
(IMAX,JMAX)
![Page 34: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
How does a “flat” grid ...
RCM Horizontal Grid
![Page 35: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
How does a “flat” grid ...
...represent part of the spherical earth?
?
RCM Horizontal Grid
![Page 36: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
By projection to a flat plane
RCM Horizontal Grid
![Page 37: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
PolarStereographic
True at 90o
RCM Horizontal Grid
![Page 38: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Lambert Conformal
True at, e.g.,30o and 60o
RCM Horizontal Grid
![Page 39: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Mercator
True at 0o
RCM Horizontal Grid
![Page 40: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Forcing Frame:for lateral
boundary conditions“free” interior
RCM Horizontal Grid
![Page 41: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
E
P
Q
R
Earth Climate SystemEarth Climate System
E
![Page 42: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
GlobalRegional Regional Regional Regional
Microscale Microscale Microscale Microscale Microscale Microscale Microscale Microscale Microscale
Pla
nt A
Crop BCrop A
Inse
ct A
Soi
l Pat
hoge
n B
Air-TransportedPathogen A
Field Field Field Field Field Field Field Field Field Field
Regional Regional Regional Regional
Continental
Hydrology, Soil Microbiology, Soil Biochemistry
Soil AH2O, temperature,
nutrients, microbes, soil carbon, trace chemicals
Soil AH2O, temperature,
nutrients, microbes, soil carbon, trace chemicals
Soil BH2O, temperature,
nutrients, microbes, soil carbon, trace chemicals
Soil BH2O, temperature,
nutrients, microbes, soil carbon, trace chemicals
Soil CH2O, temperature,
nutrients, microbes, soil carbon, trace chemicals
Scales of Climate
Scales of Landforms
Soi
l Pat
hoge
n D
Pla
nt B
Inse
ct B
Air-TransportedPathogen B
Human Influences
Management Management
Che
mic
als
Ero
sion
Che
mic
als
Surf
ace
s lop
e, I
R R
adi a
t ion
, Eva
pora
t ion
, Bio
geoc
hem
i cal
s
Detritus
Particulate D
eposition, Precipitation, S
olar Radiation, IR
Microclimate A
Sol
ar, I
R, w
ind,
CO
2, C
O, N
Ox,S
O2,
H2O
, tem
pera
ture
,
trac
e ga
ses,
shad
ing,
pa
rtic
ulat
e m
atte
r
Sol
ar, I
R, w
ind,
CO
2, C
O, N
Ox,S
O2,
H2O
, tem
pera
ture
,
trac
e ga
ses,
shad
ing,
pa
rtic
ulat
e m
atte
r
Sol
ar, I
R, w
ind,
CO
2, C
O, N
Ox,S
O2,
H2O
, tem
pera
ture
,
trac
e ga
ses,
shad
ing,
pa
rtic
ulat
e m
atte
r
Microclimate CMicroclimate B
ChemicalsChem
icals
![Page 43: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
• Regional Climate Models (RCMs)Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
– Why?Why?
– Physical BasisPhysical Basis
– Simulation Considerations
• A Norm to Evaluate Projected ChangeA Norm to Evaluate Projected Change
• Conclusions
OutlineOutline
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
![Page 44: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Simulate decades/centuries into futureSimulate decades/centuries into future
How are projections verified?How are projections verified?
Projections of Future Climate
![Page 45: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Simulate decades/centuries into futureSimulate decades/centuries into future
How are projections verified?How are projections verified?• Accuracy of present climate simulation?Accuracy of present climate simulation?
Projections of Future Climate
![Page 46: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Simulate decades/centuries into futureSimulate decades/centuries into future
How are projections verified?How are projections verified?• Accuracy of present climate simulation?Accuracy of present climate simulation?• Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?
Projections of Future Climate
![Page 47: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Simulate decades/centuries into futureSimulate decades/centuries into future
How are projections verified?How are projections verified?• Accuracy of present climate simulation?Accuracy of present climate simulation?• Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?• Alternative …Alternative …
Projections of Future Climate
![Page 48: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Simulate decades/centuries into futureSimulate decades/centuries into future
How are projections verified?How are projections verified?• Accuracy of present climate simulation?Accuracy of present climate simulation?• Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?Accuracy of paleoclimate simulation?• Alternative … Alternative …
Projections of Future Climate
![Page 49: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Cross-Compare Multiple SimulationsCross-Compare Multiple Simulations
Model Observed GCM-control GCM-Scenario
RegCM2 NCEPReanalysis(1979-1988)
HadleyCentre(~1990’s)
HadleyCentre(2040-2050)
HIRHAM(DMI)
“ “ “
![Page 50: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Simulation DomainSimulation Domain
![Page 51: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Reanalysis
HadCMCont/Scen
RegCM2
HIRHAM
Possible Comparisons?
OBS
HadCMCont/Scen
Driving Differences
![Page 52: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Definition of Biases
Reanalysis RegCM2 OBS
RCM (performance) bias
![Page 53: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Reanalysis RegCM2
HIRHAM
Inter-modelbias
Definition of Biases
![Page 54: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Reanalysis
HadCM
RegCM2
RegCM2
Definition of Biases
Forcingbias
![Page 55: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
HadCM
RegCM2
HadCM
Definition of Biases
G-R nestingbias
![Page 56: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
HadCM control
HadCMscenario
RegCM2
RegCM2
Climate Change
Change
![Page 57: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Climate Change
P
Control Scenario
Change
![Page 58: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Climate Change
P
Control Scenario
ChangeMax Bias
![Page 59: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Analysis Regions
![Page 60: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
California
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
win spr sum aut anu
season
RCM biasforcing biasintermodel biasG-R nesting biasclimate change
![Page 61: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
RegCM2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
PNW CA MW NE NS
Region
winter
spring
summer
autumn
SE
![Page 62: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
HIRHAM
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
PNW CA MW NE SE
Region
winterspringsummerautumn
![Page 63: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
0 1 2
![Page 64: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
0 1 2
![Page 65: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
0 1 2
![Page 66: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
![Page 67: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
0
100
200
300
400
500
AUG OCT DEC FEB APR JUN
ReGCM2 Sierra
NCEPHCONTHSCEN
Month
0
100
200
300
400
500
AUG OCT DEC FEB APR JUN
HIRHAM Sierra
NCEPHCONTHSCEN
Month
Annual Snow Cycle
![Page 68: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
• Regional Climate Models (RCMs)Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
– Why?Why?
– Physical BasisPhysical Basis
– Simulation Considerations
• A Norm to Evaluate Projected ChangeA Norm to Evaluate Projected Change
• Conclusions
OutlineOutline
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
![Page 69: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
FIELD POSSIBLECHANGE
CONFIDENCE **
Precipitation + 3-5 mm/d(North)
+ 0-1 mm/d(South)
good
fair
Tmin, Tmax + 2 – 3 oC fair
Snow - 0-50% poor
** = Subject to quality of driving GCM!
![Page 70: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
• Ratio of climate change to biases is especially Ratio of climate change to biases is especially large in the California regionlarge in the California region
• Differences between RCM and GCM imply Differences between RCM and GCM imply room for RCMs to add value to GCM room for RCMs to add value to GCM simulationssimulations
• Regional warming signal is less robust than Regional warming signal is less robust than precipitation changeprecipitation change
• Future warming projection has large inter-Future warming projection has large inter-model differencesmodel differences
Conclusions
![Page 71: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Acknowledgments
Primary Funding: Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
Additional Support: U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
AdministrationU.S. National Science Foundation
ISU Plant Pathology (March 2001)
![Page 72: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
EXTRA SLIDES
![Page 73: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Southeast U.S.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
win spr sum aut anu
season
RCM bias forcing biasintermodel bias G-R nesting biasclimate change
Pre
cip
[m
m/d
ay]
![Page 74: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
2 3
45
1
Analysis Points
![Page 75: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
0
5
10
15
20
OBS-1 NC-1 HCont-1 HScen-1
October - March (RegCM2)
![Page 76: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
0
5
10
15
20
OBS-1 NC-1 HCont-1 HScen-1
October - March (RegCM2)
[mm/d]
0
5
10
15
20
OBS-2 NC-2 HCont-2 HScen-2
October - March (RegCM2)
[mm/d]
0
5
10
15
20
OBS-3 NC-3 HCont-3 HScen-3
October - March (RegCM2)
[mm/d]
0
5
10
15
20
OBS-4 NC-4 HCont-4 HScen-4
October - March (RegCM2)
[mm/d]
0
5
10
15
20
OBS-5 NC-5 HCont-5 HScen-5
October - March (RegCM2)
[mm/d]
![Page 77: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
0
2
4
6
8
OBS-2 NC-2 HCont-2 HScen-2
April-September (RegCM2)
![Page 78: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
0
2
4
6
8
OBS-1 NC-1 HCont-1 HScen-1
April-September (RegCM2)
[mm/d]
0
2
4
6
8
OBS-2 NC-2 HCont-2 HScen-2
April-September (RegCM2)
[mm/d]
0
2
4
6
8
OBS-3 NC-3 HCont-3 HScen-3
April-September (RegCM2)
[mm/d]
0
2
4
6
8
OBS-4 NC-4 HCont-4 HScen-4
April-September (RegCM2)
[mm/d]
0
2
4
6
8
OBS-5 NC-5 HCont-5 HScen-5
April-September (RegCM2)
[mm/d]
![Page 79: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Precipitation RegionsPrecipitation Regions
UpperMiss.
![Page 80: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
observation
0
200
400
600
800
1000
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
Year
WinterSpringSummerAutumn
Range: 600 - 970 mm
![Page 81: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
RegCM2
0
200
400
600
800
1000
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
Year
WinterSpringSummerAutumn
Range: 650 - 850 mm
![Page 82: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
HIRHAM
0
200
400
600
800
1000
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
Year
WinterSpringSummerAutumn
Range: 590 - 870 mm
![Page 83: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
Energy Balance for EarthEnergy Balance for Earth
![Page 84: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
Energy Balance for EarthEnergy Balance for Earth
Planetary Planetary Albedo Albedo
![Page 85: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
Energy Balance for EarthEnergy Balance for Earth
![Page 86: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
Energy Balance for EarthEnergy Balance for Earth
![Page 87: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
Conservation of MomentumConservation of Momentum~ Newton’s Second Law ~~ Newton’s Second Law ~
Forces/mass:Forces/mass: gravitygravity pressure gradientpressure gradient frictionfriction
![Page 88: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
Conservation of MomentumConservation of Momentum~ Newton’s Second Law ~~ Newton’s Second Law ~
Rotating Frame
r Ω
r R
X
![Page 89: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
dr V 3dt
= (Forces/ mass)∑
−2r Ω ×
r V 3 +
r Ω
2 r R
Conservation of MomentumConservation of Momentum~ Newton’s Second Law ~~ Newton’s Second Law ~
Rotating Frame
![Page 90: Simulating and Forecasting Regional Climates of the Future](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062516/56812b0b550346895d8ef134/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
dudt
−uvtanφ
a+
uwa
=−1ρ
∂p∂x
+2Ωvsinφ−2Ωwcosφ+Frx
Conservation of MomentumConservation of Momentum~ Newton’s Second Law ~~ Newton’s Second Law ~
Sphere, Rotating Frame
dvdt
−u2 tanφ
a+
vwa
=−1ρ
∂p∂y
−2Ωusinφ +Fry
dwdt
−u2 +v2
a=−
1ρ
∂p∂z
+2Ωucosφ −g+Frz
rotation of direction