Crop Yield Appraisal and Forecasting - Decision Support under Uncertain Climates
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Transcript of Crop Yield Appraisal and Forecasting - Decision Support under Uncertain Climates
Crop Yield Appraisal and Forecasting -
Decision Support under Uncertain Climates
Climate and Agriculture
Climate is the major driver of agriculture• What to plant• Where to plant it• How to manage it
Soils play a major role Other factors
• Human needs, market availability & access, etc.
Farming is a Risky Business
Excess Rainfall, Flooding Drought Freezes Wind Hurricanes, Tornados Seasonal variations in temperature, timing
and amounts of rainfall – not as dramatic, but major impacts
Daily Weather EffectsTemperature
Vegetative and reproductive development, duration of crop season
Leaf area expansion Photosynthesis Dry matter partitioning, grain vs.
vegetative Potential evapotranspiration, water stress Soil organic matter transformations,
nutrient availability
Daily Weather Effects
Rainfall Soil Water Availability Water stress and its effects on growth
processesSolar Radiation
Photosynthesis Potential evapotranspiration, thus actual
evapotranspiration and plant water stress Temperature in soil & canopy (microclimate)
Daily Weather Effects
CO2
Photosynthesis Potential evapotranspiration & crop water
use
Daylength Reproductive development Dry matter partitioning
Climate ChangeIncrease in CO2 and Temperature
Climate ChangeIncrease in CO2 and Temperature
Climate Change and Climate Variability
The impact of climate change and climate variability on agricultural production and the potential for mitigation and adaptation Future issues can only be studied with
computer simulation models “What-If” type of scenarios Risks and uncertainties associated with
using models Involvement of stakeholders
Climate Forecast Applications:Bridging the gap between producers and users
of climate information
• Discover user needs for climate information and perceptions of climate risks
• Evaluate usefulness and limitations of climate forecasts
• Translate climate forecasts into decision support for agriculture
• Demonstrate successful forecast applications working in close collaboration with agricultural extension
Climate Change: How is Agriculture Responding?
Support Industries, Institutions• Research (e.g., soil carbon
sequestration, technologies for production, harvesting, storing, packaging, transport, and marketing)
• Plant breeding, producing heat/drought tolerant & disease resistant crops
Producers, local level• High interest in risk management
& climate variability• Long term investments?
Local Lessons Learned
High level of interest in weather Interest in climate, but this interest has to be
developed locally• Individual farmers, ranchers, foresters• Institutions (i.e., Extension, researchers)
Research alone is not sufficient; participatory, co-learning approach is essential
Extension Service involvement is key to successful delivery of information to farmers and other stakeholders
Local Lessons Learned
Integrated initiatives are needed, participatory approach for co-learning and dissemination involving a wide range of talents and institutions
Ultimately, impacts of climate change on agriculture hinges on changes in climate variability and extreme events
Ultimately, impacts of climate change on agriculture hinges on farmers being able to prepare and adapt