Simplex Infra, 19th February, 2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Quarterly Highlights – Standalone

Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY13 3QFY12 2QFY13 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq)

Net sales 1,352 1,569 1,398 (13.9) (3.3)

Operating profit 129 128 119 0.7 8.4

Adjusted Net profit 12 21 13 (43.8) (5.4)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Simplex Infrastructures (Simplex) reported slow execution and lower

profitability in 3QFY2013 due to stagnant order book and delayed payments

from clients. The company has an order book of ` 15,064cr (2.5x trailing

revenue) as of 3QFY2013. It secured orders worth ` 1,239cr and ` 4,254cr in3QFY2013 and 9MFY2013 respectively.

Slower execution, margins ahead of our estimates: On the top-line front, the

company reported a decline of 13.9% yoy to ` 1,352cr, which was 24.7% and

21% lower than our and consensus estimate. Revenue contribution from domestic

and overseas operations stood at 85% and 15%, respectively, for 9MFY2013.

On the operating front, the company reported an EBITDA of ` 129cr, a growth of

8.9% qoq in 3QFY2013. Adjusting for the foreign exchange MTM loss of ` 0.6cr,

the EBITDA margin stood at 9.6% and was higher than our estimate of 8.7%. The

company reported an adjusted PAT of ` 12cr (was below our estimate of ` 28cr) in

3QFY2013, a decline of 43.8% yoy. This was mainly due to lower-than-expected

revenue growth during the quarter.

Outlook and valuation: Simplex has been performing well on the revenue front

since the last four consecutive quarters and has a strong order book of

` 15,064cr (2.5x trailing revenue). However the Management has earlier given a

guidance of 10-15% on the revenue front for FY2013 owing to the macro

challenges faced by the sector. Going forward, given the current order book mix,

we estimate Simplex to report a revenue and PAT CAGR of 9% and 21%

respectively over FY2012-14. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock, with a

target price of `197 per share, valuing the company at 8x FY2014E earnings.

Key financials (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E

Net Sales 4,808 5,983 6,002 7,114

% chg 5.6 24.5 0.3 18.5

Adj.Net Profit 125 89 70 122

% chg (2.0) (28.2) (22.0) 74.3

EBITDA (%) 10.2 8.9 9.1 9.3

FDEPS (`) 25.2 18.1 14.1 24.6

P/E (x) 6.5 9.0 11.6 6.6

P/BV (x) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6

RoE (%) 12.1 7.8 5.6 9.2

RoCE (%) 12.3 10.7 9.2 10.7

EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.1

OB/Sales (x) 3.1 2.6 2.8 2.6

Order Inflows 8,024 6,561 7,728 8,570

% chg 34.1 (18.2) 17.8 10.9


BUYCMP ` 163

Target Price ` 197

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Net Debt ( ` cr) 2,618

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 55.0

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 21.6

FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.6 Indian Public / Others 10.8

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 6.5 6.6 20.4

Simplex (14.9) (34.0) (62.1)

2

19,501

5,898

SINF.BO

SINF@IN

806

0.7

264/160

2,823

Infrastructure

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap ( ` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Face Value ( ` )

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

Viral Shah

022-39357800 Ext: 6842

[email protected]

Simplex Infrastructures

Performance Highlights

3QFY2013 Result Update | Infrastructure

February 18, 2013



Simplex Infra | 3QFY2013 Result Update

February 18, 2013 2

Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance (Standalone)

Y/E March (` cr) 3QFY13 3QFY12 2QFY13 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq) 9MFY2013 9MFY2012 % Chg

Net Sales 1,352 1,569 1,398 (13.9) (3.3) 4,335 4,129 5.0

Total Expenditure 1,222 1,438 1,278 (15.0) (4.4) 3,932 3,751 4.8Operating Profit 130 132 119 (1.3) 8.9 402 378 6.4

OPM (%) 9.6 8.4 8.5 138 bp 103 bp 9.3 9.2 18bp

Interest 74 58 68 27.6 8.0 212 161 32.0

Depreciation 51 49 50 4.1 2.1 151 135 11.5

Non Operating Income 14 5 17 182.6 (18.4) 36 15 135.8

Nonrecurring items (1) (3) (1) (81.3) (28.2) (9) (7) 38.6

Profit Before tax 19 27 17 (30.3) 6.9 66 91 0.8

Tax 7 9 6 (16.2) 29.5 23 28 (16.8)

Net Profit before MI 11 18 12 (37.0) (3.8) 43 63 (31.6)

PAT (%) 0.8 1.2 0.8 (31)bp (0.4)bp 1.0 1.5 (53)bp

Minority Interest (MI) - - - - - - -

Net Profit after MI 12 21 13 (43.8) (5.4) 53 70 (24.9)

Adj. PAT (%) 0.9 1.4 0.9 (47bp (2)bp 1.2 1.7 (48)bp

Adj. FDEPS 2.4 4.3 2.6 (43.8) (5.4) 10.6 14.1 (24.9)


Exhibit 2: 3QFY2013 Actual vs Estimates

(` cr) Estimates Actual Variation (%)

Net Sales 1,795 1,352 (24.7)

EBITDA 156 129 (17.3)

EBITDAM (%) 8.7 9.6 86 bp

Interest and Financial Charges 69 73 5.8

Adj. PAT 28 12 (57.6)


Execution disappoints

On the top-line front, the company reported a decline of 13.9% yoy to ` 1,352cr,

which was 24.7% and 21% lower than our and consensus estimates. The muted

revenue growth was mainly on account of (a) liquidity issues faced by the clients

and (b) a slow moving order book. Revenue contribution from domestic and

overseas operations stood at 85% and 15%, respectively, for 9MFY2013.

The Management maintained its guidance for order inflows in the range of

` 6,000-7,000cr for FY2013. Based on its 9MFY2013 performance, we believe it

would be able to meet the guidance on order inflow front.




February 18, 2013 3

Exhibit 3: Execution performance falters


Exhibit 4: Revenue mix (3QFY2013, %)


Slower execution and high interest cost hurts profitability

On the operating front, the company reported an EBITDA of ` 129cr, a growth of

8.9% qoq in 3QFY2013. Adjusting for the foreign exchange MTM loss of ` 0.6cr,

the EBITDA margin stood at 9.6% and was higher than our estimate of 8.7%. On

the bottom-line front, the company reported an adjusted PAT of ` 12cr (was below

our estimate of ` 28cr) in 3QFY2013, a decline of 43.8% yoy. This was mainly due

to lower-than-expected revenue growth during the quarter.

Exhibit 5: EBITDAM back on track


Exhibit 6: Slower execution hurts profitability


Order book analysis

Company secured orders worth ` 4,245cr in 9MFY2013, thus taking the order

book to ` 15,064cr (excluding L1 orders of ~ ` 1,784cr), indicating a growth of

4.3% yoy. This converts into an order book-to-sales ratio of 2.5x trailing revenues.

Going forward, we expect the domestic segment to drive revenue growth, which

constitutes 92% of the total order book.

1 , 2

3 7

1 , 3

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6 9

1 , 7

9 6

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Sales (` cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS)

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PAT (` cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS)



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February 18, 2013 5

Exhibit 9: Recommendation summary

Company CMP TP Rating Top-line (` cr) EPS (`) P/E (x) OB/

FY12 FY13E FY14E CAGR (%) FY12 FY13E FY14E CAGR (%) FY12 FY13E FY14E Sales (x)

ABL 219 268 Buy 1,500 1,866 2,131 19.2 22.6 24.3 27.0 9.3 9.7 9.0 8.1 2.9CCCL 13 - Neutral 2,048 2,262 2,522 11.0 (0.5) 1.5 2.7 - - 8.6 4.8 2.2

IRB Infra 115 164 Buy 3,133 3,843 4,212 15.9 14.9 16.9 17.8 9.3 7.7 6.8 6.4 2.8

ITNL 197 225 Accu. 5,606 6,564 7,054 12.2 25.6 26.3 29.0 6.5 7.7 7.5 6.8 1.5

IVRCL 30 35 Buy 6,178 3,773 6,706 4.2 0.6 (3.9) 2.9 121.0 51.5 - 10.5 4.9

JP Assoc. 74 97 Buy 12,853 14,243 16,382 12.9 4.8 3.2 4.3 (5.2) 15.4 23.2 17.1 -

L&T 1,467 1,788 Buy 53,171 60,666 69,525 14.3 64.3 63.2 75.1 8.1 22.8 23.2 19.5 2.7

NCC 41 44 Accu. 5,250 5,863 6,576 11.9 1.4 3.1 4.1 71.0 29.3 13.3 10.0 3.3

Punj Lloyd 48 - Neutral 10,557 11,892 13,116 11.5 2.8 (0.4) 3.0 3.5 17.3 (112.3) 16.2 2.0

Sadbhav 115 168 Buy 2,676 2,344 2,804 2.4 9.3 7.2 8.7 (3.5) 12.3 16.0 13.2 2.9

Simplex In. 163 197 Buy 6,010 6,026 7,135 9.0 18.1 14.1 24.6 16.6 9.0 11.6 6.6 2.5

Unity Infra 36 58 Buy 1,973 2,180 2,455 11.5 14.0 12.9 14.8 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.0


Exhibit 10: SOTP breakup

Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total

` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP ` % to TP `

ABL 86 32 - - 182 68 - - - - 268

CCCL 16 100 - - - - - - - - 16

IRB Infra 52 32 - - 113 69 4 3 - - 164

ITNL 74 33 - - 121 54 - - 30 13 225IVRCL 14 40 - - - - 21 60 - - 35

JP Assoc. 25 26 26 27 - - - - 46 47 97

L&T 1,351 76 - - - - 437 24 - - 1,788

NCC 25 57 - - 7 16 - - 12 27 44

Punj Lloyd 64 100 - - - - - - - - 64

Sadbhav 70 41 - - 99 59 - - - - 168

Simplex In. 197 100 - - - - - - - - 197

Unity Infra 52 90 - - 6 10 - - - - 58


Company background

Simplex is one of the oldest construction companies in India, based in Kolkata.

Over the years, Simplex has diversified across various segments to encash upon

the untapped construction opportunity, and it has an excellent track record of

achieving the same. The company is present across eight segments – buildings

(25% of order book), bridges (5%), industrial (10%), marine (1%), pilling (3%),

power (23%), rail and roads (24%) and urban infrastructure (8%).




February 18, 2013 6

Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E

Net Sales 4,696 4,552 4,808 5,983 6,002 7,114

Other operating income 16 12 16 26 24 21Total operating income 4,713 4,564 4,824 6,010 6,026 7,135

% chg 67.8 (3.1) 5.7 24.6 0.3 18.4

Total Expenditure 4,309 4,110 4,333 5,477 5,475 6,470

R.M. consumed 2,149 1,856 1,705 2,306 2,203 2,675

Construction expenses 548 580 250 293 264 313

Employee expenses 1,413 1,472 1,711 1,972 2,228 2,529

SG&A 199 202 668 907 780 953

EBITDA 404 454 491 532 551 666

% chg 53.2 12.5 8.1 8.5 3.5 20.8

(% of Net Sales) 8.6 9.9 10.2 8.9 9.1 9.3

Depreciation & Amortisation 132 157 167 189 209 231

EBIT 272 297 324 344 342 434

% chg 36.4 9.2 9.1 6.1 (0.6) 27.1

(% of Net Sales) 5.8 6.5 6.7 5.7 5.7 6.1

Interest & other Charges 151 122 148 231 282 305

Other Income 53 26 24 21 48 57

(% of PBT) 30.4 13.0 12.0 15.6 44.8 30.7

Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -

Recurring PBT 173 201 200 133 107 186

% chg 36.3 15.8 (0.1) (33.5) (19.4) 73.0

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (9.2) - - (5.8) - -

PBT (reported) 164 201 200 127 107 186

Tax 49.0 71.5 74.4 44.7 36.0 62.3

(% of PBT) 29.9 35.6 37.1 35.1 33.6 33.6

PAT (reported) 115 129 126 83 71 123

Add: Share of earnings of asso. - - - - - -

Less: Minority interest (MI) 0.8 1.9 1.4 (1.0) 1.5 1.7

Prior period items - - - - - -

PAT after MI (reported) 114 127 125 84 70 122

ADJ. PAT 123 127 125 89 70 122

% chg 37.0 3.0 (2.0) (28.2) (22.0) 74.3(% of Net Sales) 2.6 2.8 2.6 1.5 1.2 1.7

Basic EPS (`) 24.9 25.7 25.2 18.1 14.1 24.6

Fully Diluted EPS (`) 24.9 25.7 25.2 18.1 14.1 24.6

% chg 23.8 3.0 (2.0) (28.2) (22.0) 74.3

Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with

previous year numbers




February 18, 2013 7

Balance sheet (Consolidated)


SOURCES OF FUNDS

Equity Share Capital 10 10 10 10 10 10Share App Money - warrants 21 - - - - -

Reserves & Surplus 878 968 1,078 1,197 1,254 1,362

Shareholders Funds 909 978 1,088 1,207 1,264 1,372

Minority Interest 1 5 6 6 7 9

Total Loans 1,220 1,302 1,661 2,132 2,382 2,682

Deferred Tax Liability 58 88 138 195 200 209

Total Liabilities 2,189 2,374 2,893 3,539 3,853 4,272

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 1,219 1,277 1,509 1,804 2,004 2,204

Less: Acc. Depreciation 208 289 384 525 672 834

Net Block 1,011 988 1,125 1,279 1,332 1,370

Capital Work-in-Progress 14 19 27 44 44 44

Goodwill - - - - - -

Investments 2 3 23 54 54 54

Current Assets 2,946 3,125 3,766 4,909 5,004 5,688

Inventories 679 671 812 879 750 886

Sundry Debtors 1,682 1,806 2,298 1,689 1,783 2,111

Cash 119 110 106 73 47 71

Loans & Advances 338 398 405 630 690 783

Other 127 140 145 1,638 1,734 1,837

Current liabilities 1,784 1,760 2,048 2,747 2,581 2,884

Net Current Assets 1,162 1,364 1,718 2,162 2,423 2,804

Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 2,189 2,374 2,893 3,539 3,853 4,272






February 18, 2013 8

Cash flow statement (Consolidated)


Profit before tax 164 201 200 127 107 186

Depreciation 81 81 95 141 147 162Change in Working Capital (290) (212) (357) (478) (287) (356)

Less: Other income (53) (26) (24) (21) (48) (57)

Direct taxes paid (49) (71) (74) (45) (36) (62)

Cash Flow from Operations (146) (28) (160) (275) (117) (128)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (452) (63) (241) (312) (200) (200)

(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 8 (1) (20) (31) - -

Other income 53 26 24 21 48 57

Cash Flow from Investing (392) (37) (237) (322) (152) (143)

Issue of Equity - (21) - (0) - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 471 82 358 471 250 300

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (12) (12) (12) (11) (11) (13)

Others 74 7 47 104 4 8

Cash Flow from Financing 534 56 393 564 243 295

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (4) (9) (4) (33) (27) 24

Opening Cash balances 123 119 110 106 73 47

Closing Cash balances 119 110 106 73 47 71






February 18, 2013 9

Key Ratios

Y/E March FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY2014E

Valuation Ratio (x)

P/E (on FDEPS) 6.5 6.3 6.5 9.0 11.6 6.6P/CEPS 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.3

P/BV 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6

Dividend yield (%) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5

EV/Sales 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/EBITDA 4.7 4.4 4.8 5.4 5.7 5.1

EV / Total Assets 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Per Share Data (`)

EPS (Basic) 24.9 25.7 25.2 18.1 14.1 24.6

EPS (fully diluted) 24.9 25.7 25.2 18.1 14.1 24.6

Cash EPS 51.6 57.5 58.9 56.2 56.4 71.4

DPS 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4

Book Value 183.7 197.7 219.9 244.0 255.5 277.3

Dupont Analysis

EBIT margin 5.8 6.5 6.7 5.7 5.7 6.1

Tax retention ratio 70.1 64.4 62.9 64.9 66.4 66.4

Asset turnover (x) 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.8

ROIC (Post-tax) 10.9 8.8 8.1 7.1 6.2 7.2

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 10.8 6.2 6.3 7.9 8.3 8.0

Leverage (x) 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9

Operating ROE 11.1 11.9 10.5 5.9 2.6 5.7

Returns (%)

ROCE (Pre-tax) 14.6 13.0 12.3 10.7 9.2 10.7

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 15.8 13.8 12.9 11.1 9.5 11.0

ROE 14.9 13.5 12.1 7.8 5.6 9.2

Turnover ratios (x)

Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 4.8 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.2 3.4

Inventory / Sales (days) 45 54 56 51 49 42

Receivables (days) 110 139 155 121 105 100

Payables (days) 127 156 159 159 176 153

Wcap cycle (ex-cash) (days) 187 234 253 258 297 270

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9

Net debt to EBITDA 2.7 2.6 3.2 3.9 4.2 3.9

Interest Coverage 1.8 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.4






February 18, 2013 10

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Simplex Infra

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Simplex Infra, 19th February, 2013

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Transcript of Simplex Infra, 19th February, 2013