SIMI/DoneDeal Q2 Motor Industry Review Presentation July 2016
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Transcript of SIMI/DoneDeal Q2 Motor Industry Review Presentation July 2016
![Page 1: SIMI/DoneDeal Q2 Motor Industry Review Presentation July 2016](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070514/5882646c1a28abd40e8b76d7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
SIMIQ2 Motor Industry ReviewIn association with DoneDeal
21st July 2016
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WelcomeAddress
Alan Nolan Director General SIMI
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SIMI/DoneDeal Motor Industry Review Q2 2016
Jim Power Author & Economist
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The Irish Economy in 2016
• GDP +26.3% 2015!!!!!!!2016
• Q1 GDP +2.3% (YoY): Consumption +5%; Exports +1.3%
• Retail Sales (Jan-May) Volume +7.9%; Value +5.6%• Tax Revenues +9.2% (YoY) €742 m ahead of profile• Unemployment Rate 7.8%• Good solid momentum
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Consumer Confidence
Feb-96
Aug-96
Feb-97
Aug-97
Feb-98
Aug-98
Feb-99
Aug-99
Feb-00
Aug-00
Feb-01
Aug-01
Feb-02
Aug-02
Feb-03
Aug-03
Feb-04
Aug-04
Feb-05
Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-15
Aug-15
Feb-160.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
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Motor Trade H1
• New Car Registrations 101,335: +23.07%• Roscommon +37.9%; Leitrim +14.5%• Used Car Imports 32,285; +27.7%• Light Commercial Vehicles 18,409; +25.6%• Heavy Commercial Vehicles 1,789; +42%
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Car Sales in 20162015 2016 % CHANGE
Jan 29,808 39,722 +33.3%
Feb 15,778 21,574 +36.7%
March 18,933 21,531 +13.7%
Q1 64,519 82,827 +28.4%
April 9,451 10,382 +9.85%
May 6,919 6,502 -6.03%
June 1,448 1,624 +12.2%
Q2 17,818 18,508 +3.88%
Jan-June 82,337 101,335 +23.07%
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Monthly Trend
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2013201420152016
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Imported Used Cars
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 20160
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
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Costs of Motoring
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15Jan-16
May-16
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
Motor cars Petrol Diesel Motor Insurance
(Jan
2005
=100
)
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Costs of Motoring
• New Car Price -3% (YoY); -25% since 2008• Petrol -8.4% (YoY); +9.9% March to June• Diesel -12.4% (YoY); +10.9% Jan to June• Motor Insurance +38.6%; +71.3% since June
2013
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Brexit -What Happens Next?
• Only UK can decide when to trigger Article 50• Once Article 50 triggered, negotiation power shifts to
EU-27• What sort of deal if UK exits?• Norway has access to EU through EEA – but pays 90% of
UK contribution per capita• Switzerland – bilateral trade deals, pays 50% of EU
contribution• Have to sign up to rules & regulations of SEM• Negotiations would take at least 2 years
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Economic Impact on UK
• 47% UK exports go to EU, 7% of EU exports to UK• UK pays £20 bln gross, but net <£10 bln• Lower budget contribution?• Impact on inward investment• Lower regulations- spurious argument• Migration – loss of EU migrants not good• Short-term exit would be bad for UK economy• Longer-term the UK economy would have to adjust• Exit does not make sense
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Brexit & Ireland
• Impact on sterling?• Impact on UK economy?• FDI – possible opportunity• UK to cut CT rate to 15%?• Northern Ireland border• Impact on EU?• Many ‘unknown unknowns’• Difficult to see too many positives
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GBP v Euro
1/1/2
010
2/26/2010
4/23/2010
6/18/2
010
8/13/2010
10/8/2010
12/3/2010
1/28/2
011
3/25/2
011
5/20/2
011
7/15/2
011
9/9/2
011
11/4/2
011
12/30/2
011
2/24/2
012
4/20/2
012
6/15/2
012
8/10/2
012
10/5/2012
11/30/2
012
1/25/2
013
3/22/2013
5/17/2013
7/12/2
013
9/6/2
013
11/1/2013
12/27/2
013
2/21/2014
4/18/2
014
6/13/2
014
8/8/2
014
10/3/2
014
11/28/2
014
1/23/2
015
3/20/2
015
5/15/2
015
7/10/2
015
9/4/2
015
10/30/2
015
12/25/2
015
2/19/2016
4/15/2
016
6/10/2
0160.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
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Brexit & the Motor Trade
• Impact of weaker UK economy on Irish activity & hence car sales
• Weaker sterling will make imports more attractive, but car imports into UK more expensive
• Impact of trade restrictions?• Logistics of trade through UK?• Uncertainty is the big enemy of confidence
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New Car Registrations
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
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The Industry 2016 & 2017
• 152,000 in 2016; +21.7%• Pretty flat in 2017• Brexit concerns, but key economic factors such
as employment, disposable incomes will continue to exert positive influence
• Rapid growth of recent years running out of steam – market approaching natural state
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DoneDeal Advertising Volumes
Volkswage
FordToyo
taBMW
Audi
Nissan
Opel
Peugeot
Hyundai
Mercedes-B
enzSko
daOther
RenaultHonda
Citroen
Mazda Kia
Volvo Fiat
Vauxhall
Mitsubish
iMini
Land Rover
Lexus
SaabJaguar
Chevrolet
Alfa Romeo
Daihatsu
Daewoo
Porsche
Isuzu
Rolls Royce
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
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THAN ANSWERS!
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July Registrations
Alan Greene President SIMI
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20 Day July Registrations
New Cars Total Year to Date2016 (21525) v 2015 (19,335) = +11% 122,860+21%
New Light Commercial Vehicles Total Year to Date2016 (2,657) v 2015 (2,126)= +25% 21,064 +25% New Heavy Commercial Vehicles Total Year to Date 2016 (304) v 2015 (234) =+30% 2,093 +40%
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Thank You
• Quarter 2 Motor Industry Review available at www.simi.ie/quarterlyreport