European Space Agency European Space Agency photo of the Great Wallphoto of the Great Wall

•Significant achievements as a developing country in space launches and programs, despite HRD, financial and S&T problems

•Satellite launches (with 97 put in orbit by 2007)

•Manned spacecraft (six launched by 2005)

•Lunar probe efforts (to be launched by late 2007)

•Develop and launch space shuttle by 2020

•satellite and spaceship recovery technologies, space engineering system with development of nearly a dozen Long March series of launch platforms, multiple-satellite launching and networking, synchronous positioning, high-energy, low-temperature fuel, compatibility with other international systems, monitoring

•fourth combat front 第四 �争

Three Terra images -dust storm over China

1.1. Maintaining and serving the country's overall Maintaining and serving the country's overall development strategy, and meeting the needs of development strategy, and meeting the needs of the state and reflecting its will. China considers the state and reflecting its will. China considers the development of its space industry as a the development of its space industry as a strategic way to enhance its economic, scientific, strategic way to enhance its economic, scientific, technological and national technological and national defensedefense strengthstrength……. .

2.2. Upholding independence and selfUpholding independence and self--reliance policy, reliance policy, making innovations independently and realizing making innovations independently and realizing leapfrogging development. leapfrogging development.

3.3. Maintaining comprehensive, coordinated and Maintaining comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development, and bringing into full sustainable development, and bringing into full play the functions of space science and play the functions of space science and technology in promoting and sustaining the technology in promoting and sustaining the country's science and technology sector, as well country's science and technology sector, as well as economic and social development. [and] as economic and social development. [and]

4.4. Adhering to the policy of opening up to the Adhering to the policy of opening up to the outside world, and actively engaging in outside world, and actively engaging in international space exchanges and cooperation.international space exchanges and cooperation.””

••12 year S&T programme launched in 195812 year S&T programme launched in 1958

••““two [atomic & hydrogen] bombs, one satellitestwo [atomic & hydrogen] bombs, one satellites””

••In March 1986 the In March 1986 the ““863863””Plan identified space programme (along Plan identified space programme (along with five other technologies)with five other technologies)

••1992 spacecraft launch programme was initiated1992 spacecraft launch programme was initiated

••June 1997 further enhancement of the space technology June 1997 further enhancement of the space technology programmesprogrammes

••9th Five Year Plan focus was on improving the success rate of th9th Five Year Plan focus was on improving the success rate of the e rockets, enhancing its payload capacity, shifting from satelliterockets, enhancing its payload capacity, shifting from satellitetesting to application with the objective of making these for testing to application with the objective of making these for commercial usage subsequentlycommercial usage subsequently

••10th Five Year Plan China identified three key areas of space 10th Five Year Plan China identified three key areas of space programme as priority lists: programme as priority lists: ““a new type of carrier rocketsa new type of carrier rockets””, , ““broadband highbroadband high--speed information networkspeed information network””, and , and ““key integrated key integrated circuitcircuit””

••11th Five Year Plan improving the independent innovative 11th Five Year Plan improving the independent innovative capability, expanding the scale of the space industry, expandingcapability, expanding the scale of the space industry, expandinginternational exchanges and cooperation and strengthening international exchanges and cooperation and strengthening Chinese competitive capabilitiesChinese competitive capabilities

April 24, 1970 DFH-115-day mission

••Retrievable remoteRetrievable remote--sensing satellites, sensing satellites, communications and broadcasting communications and broadcasting satellites, meteorological satellites, and satellites, meteorological satellites, and scientific exploratory and experimental scientific exploratory and experimental satellitessatellites

••30 satellites and several spacecraft 30 satellites and several spacecraft during the 2001during the 2001--2005 period covering 15 2005 period covering 15 different categories different categories

••Serialisation of Earth resources, Serialisation of Earth resources, navigation positioning, and oceanic navigation positioning, and oceanic satellitessatellites

••1111thth & 12th Five Year Plans: & 12th Five Year Plans: 50 small 50 small satellites weighing less than one tonnesatellites weighing less than one tonne

The Long March 2F launch pad at Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center

••Launch Sites at Jiuquan, Launch Sites at Jiuquan, Xichang and Taiyuan with Xichang and Taiyuan with plans for the fourth in plans for the fourth in HainandaoHainandao

••Most of the earlier Most of the earlier launches at Jiuquanlaunches at Jiuquan

••Most of launches for Most of launches for foreign companies from foreign companies from XichangXichang

••New Launch pad New Launch pad constructions inconstructions in tthe he offingoffing

尚�于研制�段的鑫�二号�星。如今的它极可能成�太空垃圾 Sinosat 2 not working- Nov 06

••Expansion of the current C band system Expansion of the current C band system from 500 MHz to 800 MHz;from 500 MHz to 800 MHz;

•• Introduce systems operating on Ku, Ka Introduce systems operating on Ku, Ka UHF, L, S, and X bands; UHF, L, S, and X bands;

••Development of multiDevelopment of multi--time user timetime user time--sharing sharing facilities of 60facilities of 60--120 MB per second capacity 120 MB per second capacity together with a satellite communication together with a satellite communication system of 100 MB per second performance; system of 100 MB per second performance;

••Changing from the current system of Changing from the current system of accommodating only voice and data signals accommodating only voice and data signals to that of a very small aperture terminals for to that of a very small aperture terminals for handling signals for not only voice and data handling signals for not only voice and data but also graphics, characters and TV but also graphics, characters and TV broadcasts; developing systems for interbroadcasts; developing systems for inter--communication between two or more satellite communication between two or more satellite systems, automated systems, improving systems, automated systems, improving safety and security measuressafety and security measures

Qinghua 1 Minisat

••The China Space Aviation Industrial The China Space Aviation Industrial Group, developed Group, developed ““Space Space QinghuaQinghuaNo. 1No. 1”” minimini--satellite satellite

••small satellites for the benefits of small satellites for the benefits of transforming aspects of transforming aspects of reconnaissance, telecom, reconnaissance, telecom, command, decisioncommand, decision--making, making, logistics, and weapons systems in logistics, and weapons systems in the modern warfarethe modern warfare

••2002 Chinese 2002 Chinese SinosatSinosat 1 satellite 1 satellite broadcasts were jammed reportedly broadcasts were jammed reportedly by the by the FalunFalun Gong activists in Gong activists in TaiwanTaiwan

••Piggyback satellitesPiggyback satellites

2nd Beidou launch

••Two satellites launched in October and December Two satellites launched in October and December 20002000; ; 3rd in May 20033rd in May 2003; ; February and April 2007 launch February and April 2007 launch of two more satellitesof two more satellites

••For For transportation, meteorology, petroleum transportation, meteorology, petroleum production, forest fire prevention, disaster forecast, production, forest fire prevention, disaster forecast, telecommunications and public security sectorstelecommunications and public security sectors

••positioning of positioning of BeidouBeidou series of satellites over West series of satellites over West Asia during the 2003 Iraq war Asia during the 2003 Iraq war

••Compass system of navigationCompass system of navigation: : 35 satellites (with five 35 satellites (with five geostationary and 30 medium earth orbit satellites) geostationary and 30 medium earth orbit satellites) serving Chinese and unspecified neighbouring serving Chinese and unspecified neighbouring countries customers by 2008countries customers by 2008

••positioning accuracy within 10 meters, velocity positioning accuracy within 10 meters, velocity accuracy with 0.2 meter per second and timing accuracy with 0.2 meter per second and timing accuracy within 50 nanosecondsaccuracy within 50 nanoseconds

••purchasing rubidium and hydrogen maser atomic purchasing rubidium and hydrogen maser atomic clocks in Europeclocks in Europe

Historical dispersion of precision factorHistorical dispersion of precision factor (Source: (Source: JanesJanes))

Warhead launch (Source: Janes)

Vertical dispersion of precision factor (Source: Janes)

Difference in range along trajectory (km) (Source: Janes)

Shenzhou 1999

1.1. heavyheavy--duty carrier rockets that can duty carrier rockets that can launch the payload of about 10 launch the payload of about 10 tonnes into the space; tonnes into the space;

2.2. space recovery technology [by late space recovery technology [by late 1990s, China recovered 17]1990s, China recovered 17]

3.3. unmanned space ship is produced unmanned space ship is produced in preparation for manufacturing a in preparation for manufacturing a manned space shipmanned space ship

4.4. breakthroughs in space breakthroughs in space technologiestechnologies-- solar energy solar energy batteries, primary gammabatteries, primary gamma--ray ray burst observation apparatus, burst observation apparatus, training of personnel at training of personnel at KakarinKakarinAstronauts Preparation Astronauts Preparation CenterCenter in in RussiaRussia

Fei Junlong & Nie Haisheng

Yang Liwei

China spent about Yuan 18 billion ($2.2billion) for China spent about Yuan 18 billion ($2.2billion) for the manned space programme from 1992 to 2003. the manned space programme from 1992 to 2003. This accounts to Yuan 1.6 billion ($200million) in This accounts to Yuan 1.6 billion ($200million) in average annual spending on the programmeaverage annual spending on the programme

Yuan 1.6 billion (about $200 million) in annual Yuan 1.6 billion (about $200 million) in annual average expenditure for the 11average expenditure for the 11--yearyear--old programme old programme since 1992since 1992

cost of building Shenzhou VI was reportedly about cost of building Shenzhou VI was reportedly about Yuan 900 millionYuan 900 million

••Shenzhou Shenzhou YagiYagi antenna for PHOTOINTantenna for PHOTOINT

••Shenzhou 5 has implications for the proposed Shenzhou 5 has implications for the proposed BMD system in East Asia as wellBMD system in East Asia as well

An artist's interpretation of China's Chang'e 1 lunar orbiter

The four missions of the The four missions of the lunar probe are:lunar probe are:

1.1. collecting threecollecting three--dimensional moon dimensional moon images, images,

2.2. exploring lunar soil, exploring lunar soil, 3.3. analyzing chemical analyzing chemical

elements on the elements on the Moon's surface and Moon's surface and

4.4. investigating the space investigating the space environment between environment between the earth and the moonthe earth and the moon

Source: CSIS

Diameter of the Chinese Launchers

3.81 3.813.35 3.35 3.35

11.45 11.45

3.35 3.35

8.45 8.45

3.35 3.35

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

CZ-1/LM-1

CZ-1D

CZ-2A

CZ-2C

CZ-2D

CZ-2E

CZ-2F

CZ-3 CZ-3A

CZ-3B

CZ-3C

CZ-4A

CZ-4B

LM Variant

Met

ers

Overall lengthof the Chinese Launchers 54.838

58.34

33.667

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

CZ-1/LM-1

CZ-1C

CZ-1D

CZ-2A

CZ-2C

CZ-2D

CZ-2E

CZ-2F

CZ-3 CZ-3A

CZ-3B

CZ-3C

CZ-4A

CZ-4BLM Variant

Met

ers

Launch mass

81.75 81.075

192 192

236.966

462.46479.7

204.88

241

426

345

241.092 248.47

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

CZ-1/LM-1

CZ-1D CZ-2A CZ-2C CZ-2D CZ-2E CZ-2F CZ-3 CZ-3A CZ-3B CZ-3C CZ-4A CZ-4B

LM Variant

Tonn

es

••LM 2 variants launched 27 timesLM 2 variants launched 27 times

••more success rate from October more success rate from October 19961996: : launch success rate has launch success rate has reached 92 percentreached 92 percent

••initial propellant for the LM initial propellant for the LM rockets, nitric acid was replaced rockets, nitric acid was replaced with nitric tetra oxidewith nitric tetra oxide

••for the threefor the three--stage LMstage LM--3 liquid 3 liquid oxygen cryogenic upper stages oxygen cryogenic upper stages and in 1984 succeeded in this and in 1984 succeeded in this efforteffort

••China purchased three RDChina purchased three RD--120 120 class engines from Russia class engines from Russia although the latter refused to part although the latter refused to part with RDwith RD--170/171 class engines170/171 class engines

Space Launches

••About 9 launch failures till the 1990s, excluding About 9 launch failures till the 1990s, excluding wrong orbital placementswrong orbital placements

••dummy AUSSAT could not be placed in the orbit in dummy AUSSAT could not be placed in the orbit in 1990 (but Pakistan1990 (but Pakistan’’s Badrs Badr--1 was successful in a 1 was successful in a different launch but failed after a month)different launch but failed after a month)

••Long March 2E in January 1995Long March 2E in January 1995: Rocket exploded : Rocket exploded after launchafter launch-- 6 killed and 23 injured6 killed and 23 injured

••Long March 3B in February 1996Long March 3B in February 1996 carrying Intelsat carrying Intelsat 708 satellite 708 satellite –– inertial guidance system inertial guidance system malfunctionedmalfunctioned-- 6 killed 57 injured6 killed 57 injured

••Loran & Hughes accused of transferring satellite Loran & Hughes accused of transferring satellite guidance technologies to Chinaguidance technologies to China

New model launch vehicles at Zhuhai04

•KT-series of launch vehicles

•design capacity ranging from 1.2 tons to 25 tons when moving in lower orbits, or 1.8 tons and 14 tons in higher orbits

France’s Aérospatiale builds Sinosat-1 for the Chinese-German company Eurospace July 1998

International cooperation with Australia, Brazil, International cooperation with Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Italy,Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Italy,Japan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Russia, South Japan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Russia, South Korea, and Sweden.Korea, and Sweden.

China launched a Swedish scientificChina launched a Swedish scientificsatellite, satellite, FrejaFreja, in 1992, in 1992

In 1994, China Aerospace Co. and GermanyIn 1994, China Aerospace Co. and Germany’’s s Deutsche Aerospace (now DASA) formed a joint Deutsche Aerospace (now DASA) formed a joint venture, venture, EuraSpaceEuraSpace, to build communications, to build communicationsand remote sensing satellites; cooperating on a and remote sensing satellites; cooperating on a solar telescopesolar telescope

Arianespace for joint development of a launch Arianespace for joint development of a launch system with Chinasystem with China

1994 Sino1994 Sino--Russian cooperation agreementRussian cooperation agreement--areas of cooperation robotic missions to Mars areas of cooperation robotic missions to Mars and human spaceflight, Soyuz purchase, and human spaceflight, Soyuz purchase, training Chinese specialists at Russiatraining Chinese specialists at Russia’’s s cosmonaut training center in Star Citycosmonaut training center in Star City

1989 launch service agreement1989 launch service agreement with the with the US but launch failures and allegations US but launch failures and allegations about violation of launch service about violation of launch service agreement and sanctions in 1993 (for agreement and sanctions in 1993 (for selling missiles to Pakistan) led to selling missiles to Pakistan) led to denial of satellite export licenses.denial of satellite export licenses.

ChinaChina--Brazil cooperation in space is Brazil cooperation in space is designed to provide 20 meter designed to provide 20 meter resolution, which could be useful for resolution, which could be useful for both military and civilian purposes.both military and civilian purposes.

Euro 200 million in GalileoEuro 200 million in Galileo

Conflict or Cooperation with Conflict or Cooperation with GPS/Galileo?GPS/Galileo?

U.S. MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEM

Atmospheric layer

booster stage interception

middle & later stage interception

final stage interception

••Taiwan in the orbit (ROCSAT boosted Taiwan in the orbit (ROCSAT boosted in 1999)in 1999)

••Violates the ABMT that ushered in Violates the ABMT that ushered in global strategic stability during the global strategic stability during the Cold War [between the P/NCold War [between the P/N--5]5]

••It Destabilizes the World Order and It Destabilizes the World Order and harm IRharm IR

••Undermines ChinaUndermines China’’s Strategic s Strategic Deterrence & its retaliatory attackDeterrence & its retaliatory attack

••Leads to Arms Race in the RegionLeads to Arms Race in the Region

••US unilateral moves on BMD US unilateral moves on BMD detrimental to nondetrimental to non--proliferation efforts proliferation efforts (NPT/FMCT/CTBT)(NPT/FMCT/CTBT)

The Target SatelliteSource: MIT

Mass: 880 kgOrbital parameters: Apogee: 875 kmInclination: 98.59oAt time of interception: Longitudinal speed: 7.42 km/sAltitude: 856 km

Fengyun-1C was placed in a sunsynchronous orbit

DF-21:

Total weight = 14,700 kgPayload = 600 kgBooster weight = 14,100 kgScaling by stage length:1st stage: 10,389 kg2nd stage: 3,710 kgSolid grains burn from the inside out.=> Burn time is independent of stage length: 36 s.A sophisticated doublebase grain has a burnrate of 1.2 inch/sec.

••Main drivers of ChinaMain drivers of China’’s Space Programme s Space Programme commercial and scientific advance & national commercial and scientific advance & national defence in the form of its own navigational and defence in the form of its own navigational and positioning systems, opposing BMD and ASAT positioning systems, opposing BMD and ASAT programmesprogrammes

••SelectiveSelective multilateral efforts at international multilateral efforts at international space cooperationspace cooperation-- ChinaChina’’s efforts to gradually s efforts to gradually emerge as an Asian leader in the short to emerge as an Asian leader in the short to medium term and then expand at the global medium term and then expand at the global levelslevels

••DualDual--use nature of Chinause nature of China’’s space programme s space programme with its emphasis on military applicationswith its emphasis on military applications