ShadowStats Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 · (GDP). The Consensus Outlook appears be...
Transcript of ShadowStats Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 · (GDP). The Consensus Outlook appears be...
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Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 1
ShadowStats Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437
Near-Term Collapse in Headline Economic Activity
May 17, 2020
____________
Worst U.S. Economic Activity Ever Reported
April Retail Sales Fell the Most in Its 73-Year Reporting History
Production and Manufacturing Tumbled the Most in Their 101-Year History
Increasing New Claims for Unemployment Insurance and Insured Unemployed
Confirm the Economy Fell Further in May, Albeit Likely at a Moderating Pace
Second-Quarter 2020 Real Annualized GDP Contraction of
About 50% (-50%) Will Surpass Anything Ever Seen
If There Are Meaningful Efforts to Reopen the Economy,
Third Quarter Activity Could Move Off Bottom in a
Nascent L- or Shallow U-Shaped Recovery
Benchmark Revisions to New Orders for Durable Goods Confirmed
Major Downside Revisions Loom for Pre-Pandemic GDP Reporting
U.S. Economy Already Was in Trouble Before the Pandemic,
Because of Intensifying Federal Reserve Policy Malfeasance and
Federal Government Fiscal Malpractice
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 2
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Contents – Special Economic Commentary (Issue No. 1437)
Overview – April/May 2020 Difficult Times At Hand 4 Worst U.S. Economic Activity Ever Reported 4 Near-Term Economic Collapse Has Not Hit Bottom, Yet 4
New Claims for Unemployment Insurance – Watch for a Signal 6 Week-Ended May 9th Pace of Employment Deterioration Has Begun to Taper Off 6 Corrected Headline April 2020 U.3 Unemployment Was 19.5%, Consistent May 2020 Unemployment Should Be About 27.8% 6
Graph 1: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Through Week-Ended May 9, 2020 ..................................................... 6
Table I: Headline, BLS-Corrected and ShadowStats Unemployment Estimates to May 2020 .................................................. 7
April 2020 Retail Sales 8 Retail Sales Plunge Worst in History of Current and Prior Series 8
Graph 2: Combined Full History - Real Retail Sales (1947 to April 2020) ............................................................................. 9
Graph 3: Combined Full History - Real Retail Sales, Year-to-Year Percent Change (1948 to April 2020) ............................. 9
Graph 4: Real Retail Sales (2000 to April 2020) ..................................................................................................................... 10
Graph 5: Real Retail Sales, Year-to-Year Percent Change (2000 to April 2020) .................................................................. 10
April 2020 Industrial Production and Its Major Components 11 Production and Manufacturing Monthly Declines Were Deepest in the 101-Year History of Both Series 11
Graph 6: Index of Industrial Production, Complete History ................................................................................................... 12
Graph 7: Index of Industrial Production, Year-to-Year Change, Complete History ............................................................... 12
Graph 8: Industrial Production, 2000 to April 2020 ............................................................................................................... 13
Graph 9: Industrial Production, Year-to-Year Percent Change, 2000 to April 2020 ............................................................. 13
Graph 10: Manufacturing, Complete History.......................................................................................................................... 14
Graph 11: Manufacturing, Year-to-Year Change, Complete History ..................................................................................... 14
Graph 12: Manufacturing, 2000 to April 2020........................................................................................................................ 15
Graph 13: Manufacturing, Year-to-Year Change, 2000 to April 2020 ................................................................................... 15
Graph 14: Mining, 2000 to April 2020 .................................................................................................................................... 16
Graph 15: Mining, Year-to-Year Change, 2000 to April 2020 ................................................................................................ 16
Graph 16: Utilities, 2000 to April 2020................................................................................................................................... 17
Graph 17: Utilities, Year-to-Year Change, 2000 to April 2020 .............................................................................................. 17
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 3
Benchmarking of New Orders for Durable Goods 18 Downside Benchmark Revisions to Retail and Sales and New Orders for Durable Goods Suggest July 30th Downside Benchmark Revisions to Pre-Pandemic GDP 18
Graph 18: 2020 Benchmark Revisions to Nominal New Orders for Durable Goods .............................................................. 19
Graph 19: 2020 Benchmark Revisions to Real New Orders for Durable Goods ................................................................... 19
Graph 20: Benchmarked Real New Orders for Durable Goods ............................................................................................. 20
Graph 21: Benchmarked Real New Orders for Durable Goods, Year-to-Year Percent Change ............................................ 20
Graph 22: Benchmarked Real New Orders (Ex-Commercial Aircraft) ................................................................................... 21
Graph 23: Benchmarked Real New Orders (Ex-Commercial Aircraft), Year-to-Year Percent Change ................................. 21
Alternate Recession Measurement 22 Manufacturing, Orders and Freight Activity 22
AGAINST ALTERNATE RECESSION MEASURES (Updated from Flash Commentary No. 1436) ....................................... 22
Graph 24: Capacity Utilization versus Recessions and Alternate Recession Measures (2000 to April 2020) ....................... 22
Graph 25: Cass Freight Index®, Monthly Level of Unadjusted Activity vs. 12-Month Trailing Average ............................... 23
Graph 26: Manufacturing, Monthly Level of Adjusted Activity vs. 12-Month Trailing Average ............................................. 23
Graph 27: Cass Freight Index®, Year-to-Year Percent Change and Alternate Recession Measures ..................................... 24
Graph 28: Manufacturing, Year-to-Year Percent Change and Alternate Recession Measures .............................................. 24
Graph 29: Real New Orders for Durable Goods, Monthly Level of Adjusted Activity vs. 12-Month Trailing Average .......... 25
Graph 30: Real Durable Goods Orders, Year-to-Year Percent Change and Alternate Recession Measures ......................... 25
Updated Financial Market Graphs to May 15, 2020 26 Physical Gold and Swiss Franc Continue to Protect U.S. Dollar Purchasing Power 26
Graph 31: February to May 2020 Financial Markets -- Scale: Feb. 12 = 100, Day of DJIA All-Time High Close ............... 26
Graph 32: Dow Jones Industrial Average versus Gold (Monthly Average) ............................................................................ 27
Graph 33: Total Return S&P 500® versus Gold (Month End) ............................................................................................... 27
Graph 34: Gold versus Swiss Franc ........................................................................................................................................ 28
Graph 35: Gold versus Silver .................................................................................................................................................. 28
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 4
Overview – April/May 2020 Difficult Times At Hand
Worst U.S. Economic Activity Ever Reported
Near-Term Economic Collapse Has Not Hit Bottom, Yet
April’s Worst-Ever Economic Reporting Is on Top of Pending Downside Benchmark Revisions to
Pre-Pandemic GDP. Headline April 2020 economic reporting of the last several days, and the April
employment and unemployment detail of a week ago, have shown the sharpest-ever hits to the domestic
economy. Friday (May 15) saw the steepest monthly declines in the 101-year reporting history of
Industrial Production and the 73-year reporting history of Retail Sales. In the context of other
developments, such is suggestive of an annualized real quarterly collapse of about 50% (-50%), the latest
ShadowStats estimate for the July 30th initial reporting of Second-Quarter 2020 Gross Domestic Product
(GDP). The Consensus Outlook appears be running around minus 30% (-30%), while the respective New
York and Atlanta Fed models show deepening annualized drops of 31.1% (-31.1%) and 42.8% (-42.8%),
based solely on the headline economic reporting through May 15th (wait until they process the residential
construction and sales in the week ahead).
Such follows a First-Quarter 2020 Real GDP annualized contraction, currently of 4.78% (-4.78%), and a
Fourth-Quarter 2019 annualized gain of 2.13%, with both 1q2020 and 4q2019 subject to likely downside
revisions in the July 30th GDP benchmarking, if not before, with the second estimate of First-Quarter
2020 GDP on May 28th.
Historic Hit to Second-Quarter 2020 Real GDP Could Be Followed by Some Low-Level Bottom
Bouncing, or Moving Off Bottom in Third- and Fourth-Quarter Activity. Assuming some meaningful
shift towards reopening the economy in the next several months, economic “recovery” likely will not be
as rapid as some would hope, due to the extraordinary damage already done by, and the disruptions from,
the massive, panicked shutdown. Initially, renewed “growth” might look like bottom bouncing, in a
protracted L-shaped or flattened U-shaped recovery, off a potential Second-Quarter 2020 trough.
Consumer Outlook Continues to Evolve, Likely Having Taken a Fundamental, Longer Term
Reassessment and Hit. Both the Consumer Confidence Survey®
(The Conference Board) and the
Consumer Sentiment Index (University of Michigan) have surveyed Consumer attitudes for decades,
Confidence since 1953, Sentiment since 1970. Both series hit their historic highs in 2000, but then they
were pummeled by the 9-11 Terrorist attacks in 2001. Neither series recovered those 2000 peaks. Yet,
both series were on good upswings into February 2020. In the wake of the Coronavirus Pandemic,
however, April 2020 numbers collapsed back to 2014 levels (the 2014 Mini-Recession), taking a steeper
plunge than followed 9-11. The early Sentiment estimate for May 2020 indicated some bottom-bouncing.
There appears to have been a fundamental shift in Consumer attitudes and outlook, post 9-11, with 2000-
peak historical reporting never having recovered. In like manner, the current Coronavirus Pandemic well
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 5
may set an upside limit to Consumer optimism, attitudes and behavior for some time to come, as people
and businesses struggle to return to “normal” functioning. With fundamental shifts likely having taken
place in personal attitudes and business assessments/outlooks, a new “normal” likely will evolve as well,
at both a lower level of the Consumer outlook and Consumer economic activity.
Noted Previously, the Economy Was Weakening into the Pandemic, but the Pandemic Constraints
Now Have Been Driving the Economic Collapse; Those Constraints Still Need to Be Removed
Before “Recovery” Can Begin. No amount of Government Spending or Federal Reserve
Accommodation and Money Creation will turn this economic collapse around, although the authorities
well could trigger some form of Hyperinflationary Great Depression in the process, to be explored in
pending ShadowStats Special Commentary, Issue No. 1438 - Risk of Hyperinflationary Collapse,
planned for the week ahead, likely May 20th. Nonetheless, restoration of stable social, economic and
employment circumstances depends on the control and containment of the massive issues arising from the
handling of the Coronavirus Pandemic shutdown of society and the economy, particularly disruptions to
and destruction of small businesses that drive and enable so many key elements of society.
Allowing for early initiatives to re-open the economy, irrespective of evolving Pandemic conditions, my
assessment of realistic chances for the economy to begin turning around, to move meaningfully off
bottom, remain limited before early 2021. Such assumes, again that the economic plunge in current
Second-Quarter 2020 activity will lead the economy into some type of bottoming during Third- and
Fourth-Quarter 2020. I continue to invite and will publish comments from readers who are willing to
share their insights as to how the system is progressing towards bottoming or recovering, or are willing to
offer constructive suggestions to addressing the current systemic issues.
For the Benefit of Subscribers, Updated Circumstances Are Highlighted in the Daily Update. With
rapidly shifting headlines, reporting details, intervening events, unusual developments and schedule
changes—all are covered regularly in the Daily Update section on the ShadowStats Home Page.
For recent economic and the latest (updated) market and systemic assessments, see Special Commentary,
Issue No. 1429 (FOMC Panic), Special Commentary, Issue No. 1430 (Systemic Solvency), Flash
Commentary, Issue No. 1433 (Retail Sales Benchmarking), Flash Commentary No. 1434 (1q2000
GDP), Flash Commentary No. 1435 (April Unemployment), Flash Commentary No. 1436 (Cass Freight
Index®)
.
Today’s Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 updates and previews key areas going into the
Hyperinflation Issue, including the an initial cut in likely Second-Quarter 2020 Gross Domestic Product,
unfolding Unemployment circumstances and an updated plot of key financial measures.
Please call me any time, with questions on current circumstances, or if you just would like to talk, at
(707) 763-5786. Leave a message if your call goes to Voicemail. I shall be back to you.
Your questions and comments always are welcomed. Again, please contact:
John Williams (707) 763-5786, [email protected]
http://www.shadowstats.com/http://www.shadowstats.com/article/cssc1429.pdfhttp://www.shadowstats.com/article/cssc1429.pdfhttp://www.shadowstats.com/article/cssc1430.pdfhttp://www.shadowstats.com/article/csfu1433.pdfhttp://www.shadowstats.com/article/csfu1433.pdfhttp://www.shadowstats.com/article/csfu1434.pdfhttp://www.shadowstats.com/article/csfu1435.pdfhttp://www.shadowstats.com/article/cflash1436.pdfmailto:[email protected]
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 6
New Claims for Unemployment Insurance – Watch for a Signal
Week-Ended May 9th Pace of Employment Deterioration Has Begun to Taper Off
Corrected Headline April 2020 U.3 Unemployment Was 19.5%;
Consistent May 2020 Unemployment Should Be About 27.8%
Latest New Claims for Unemployment Insurance Were Consistent with May 2020 U.3
Unemployment of About 28%, Which Would Be the Highest Level in Modern History. The latest
weekly reporting (week-ended May 9th) of New Claims for Unemployment Insurance slowed to a 3.0
million jump, with an aggregate surge of 36.5 million new claims since the mid-March 2020 Pandemic-
driven reporting explosion. The latest weekly detail suggested a headline May 2020 U.3 unemployment
rate of 27.8% (see Table I).
New Claims and Unemployment—Watch for a Signal. So long as the weekly count of Initial Claims for
Unemployment Insurance stays above 500,000, and the seasonally adjusted Insured Unemployment
continues to gain, seasonally adjusted economic activity should have continued contracting in the week.
Graph 1: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Through Week-Ended May 9, 2020
Reflected in Table I, the latest detail remained consistent with a May U.3 of about 27.8%, versus the
BLS-corrected April U.3 of 19.5% (headline 14.7%). What will be reported depends on whether the BLS
really wants to publish the higher, “corrected” number where all the unemployed are counted as
“unemployed” as opposed to “employed” (see Flash Commentary No. 1435).
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Initial Claims for Unemployment Thousands of Claims, Weekly to May 9, 2020
Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, U.S. Department of Labor]
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/csfu1435.pdf
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 7
The Department of Labor reported May 14th, that the week-ended May 9th New Claims for
Unemployment Insurance surge continued at a slowing pace, up by 2.981 million in the week, versus an
upwardly revised gain of 3.176 [previously 3.169] million the week before, up by 1274% against 217,000
in the year-ago week. Allowing an early glimpse of the May 2020 unemployment detail, headline detail
would suggest a headline U.3 rate of 27.8% in May 2020.
Although the pace of surge in New Claims is slowing, a new round of secondary furloughs appears to be
on the rise. Insured Unemployment continues to increase weekly, with the May 9th week count the
“highest in history,” topping the Great Recession Peak. So long as both the “New Claims” and “Insured
Unemployed” are increasing week-to-week, the headline economy is contracting, in theory, and vice
versa.
Table I: Headline, BLS-Corrected and ShadowStats Unemployment Estimates to May 2020
Headline May 2020 U.3 Unemployment (Corrected for Any Ongoing Bureau of Labor Statistics
Surveying/Misclassification Errors) Should Top Anything Seen in Modern History. Due for release on
Friday, June 5th, May U.3 of 27.8% (see Table I) would set a new post-World War II record. The
previous post-War high was 10.8% during the 1981. The peak annual Great Depression unemployment
rate is estimated at 25% in 1933.
[April 2020 Retail Sales coverage begins on the next page.]
Measure Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20 May '20
Estimate
Headline U.3 3.5% 4.4% 14.7% --
Corrected/Estimate 3.5% 5.3% 19.5% 27.8%
Headline U.6 7.0% 8.7% 22.8% --
Corrected/Estimate 7.0% 9.6% 27.7% 37.9%
Headline ShadowStats 21.1% 22.9% 35.4% --
Corrected/Estimate 21.1% 23.7% 39.6% 48.0%
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, ShadowStats.com
Headline Unemployment Rate vs. BLS "Corrected" or
Based on New Claims for Unemployment Insurance
Based on BLS - "Corrected Estimate" to April 2020
Month
ShadowStats Estimates of May 2020 Unemployment are
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 8
April 2020 Retail Sales
Retail Sales Plunge Worst in History of Current and Prior Series
Unprecedented in 73-Years of Reporting, April 2020 Real Retail Sales Plunged 15.78% (-15.78%)
in the Month, by 21.90% (-21.90%) Year-to-Year, Following Minimally Revised Monthly and
Annual Declines in March Activity of 7.92% (-7.92%) and 7.09% (-7.09%). As reported May 15th
by the Census Bureau, and as adjusted by the CPI-U (Saint Louis Fed), inflation-adjusted Real Retail
Sales activity was boosted minimally in April and March by monthly declines in the headline CPI-U,
while the real annual declines were somewhat worse net of minimally positive annual CPI. Before
inflation adjustment, in nominal terms Retail Sales plunged by 16.45% (-16.45%) in the month, by
21.61% (-21.61%) year-to-year, following monthly and annual declines in March activity of 8.31%
(-8.31%) and 5.68% (-5.68%).
The real series headlined and plotted here is the nominal Retail Series surveyed by the Census Bureau and
deflated by the CPI-U, as published by Saint Louis Federal Reserve. Seen in Graphs 2 and 3, neither of
the two historical Retail Sales series, dating back to 1947, has seen either monthly or year-to-year
contractions close to the magnitude of the headline April 2020 declines.
Details of the 2020 negative annual benchmark revisions to the Retail Sales series were published in
Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1433. In tandem with the later detailing here of the just-published
benchmarking of New Orders for Durable Goods (see Page 18), evidence continues to mount of pending
downside revisions to the GDP in its July 30th annual benchmarking.
Deepening Recession and Depression. With an early one-month trend (April), Second-Quarter 2020
Real Retail Sales is on track for its third consecutive quarterly decline, consistent with the evolving
Coronavirus Pandemic Depression overwriting what already had been an unfolding recession.
Annualized Fourth-Quarter 2019 (Holiday Shopping Season) real growth contracted at an annualized
quarterly pace of 0.73% (-0.73%), followed by a revised annualized contraction of 9.71% (-9.71%) in
First-Quarter 2020, with Second-Quarter 2020 on early track for an annualized real quarterly contraction
of 60.04% (-60.04%).
[Graphs 2 to 5 begin on the next page]
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/csfu1433.pdf
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 9
Graph 2: Combined Full History - Real Retail Sales (1947 to April 2020)
Graph 3: Combined Full History - Real Retail Sales, Year-to-Year Percent Change (1948 to April 2020)
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Official Recession
Old Series (1947 to Date)
Current Series (1992 to Date)
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Real Retail Sales Year-to-Year Percent Change 1948 to April 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, St. Louis Fed]
Official Recession
Old Series (1948 to 2001)
Current Series (1993 to Date)
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 10
Graph 4: Real Retail Sales (2000 to April 2020)
Graph 5: Real Retail Sales, Year-to-Year Percent Change (2000 to April 2020)
[Coverage of Industrial Production begins on the next page]
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Real Retail Sales, Year-to-Year Percent Change To April 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census, BLS]
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 11
April 2020 Industrial Production and Its Major Components
Production and Manufacturing Monthly Declines
Were Deepest in the 101-Year History of Both Series
April 2020 Industrial Production and Manufacturing Saw Record Monthly Plunges, With Capacity
Utilization Setting a New Historic Low. Showing heavy impact from the Coronavirus-Pandemic
Shutdown, April Industrial Production and Manufacturing both took their biggest one-month hits in the
101-year history of the series, while Capacity Utilization plunged to a new historic (67-Year) low.
Reported May 15th, by Federal Reserve Board, April Industrial Production declined by 11.25% (-11.25%)
in the month, by 15.04% (-15.04%) year-to-year, following respective monthly and annual declines of
4.51% (-4.51%) and 4.88% (-4.88%) in March. Manufacturing declined by 13.70% (-13.70%) in the
month, by 18.01% (-18.01%) year-to-year, following declines of 5.50% (-5.50%) and 5.82% (-5.82%) in
March. Mining declined by 6.15% (-6.15%) in the month, by 7.50% (-7.50%) year-to-year, following a
March monthly decline of 1.11% (-1.11%) and annual gain of 1.09%. Utilities sank both monthly and
annually, respectively by 0.92% (-0.92) and 3.82% (-3.82%) in April and by 1.89% (-1.89%) and 6.17%
(-6.17%) in March. Previously, the headline March declines had been the deepest since the Post World
War II production shutdown.
Deepening Recession and Depression. With an early one-month trend (April), Second-Quarter 2020
Industrial Production is on track for its third consecutive quarterly decline, consistent with the evolving
Coronavirus Pandemic Depression overwriting what already had been an unfolding recession.
Annualized Fourth-Quarter 2019 real growth contracted at an annualized quarterly pace of 0.69%
(-0.69%), followed by a revised annualized contraction of 2.02% (-2.02%) in First-Quarter 2020, with
Second-Quarter 2020 on early track for an annualized real quarterly contraction of 45.11% (-45.11%).
This should become increasingly obvious following the pending annual benchmark revisions to the
aggregate Industrial Production and Manufacturing series, now planned for “the second half of 2020.”
One could hope that the Production benchmarking indeed will precede (be incorporated into) the July
30th benchmarking of the Gross Domestic Product series.
[Graphs 6 to 17 begin on the next page]
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 12
Graph 6: Index of Industrial Production, Complete History
Graph 7: Index of Industrial Production, Year-to-Year Change, Complete History
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100-Plus Years of Industrial Production Jan 1919 to Apr 2020 Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Federal Reserve Board]
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Industrial Production (Year-to-Year Percent Change) January 1920 to April 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 13
Graph 8: Industrial Production, 2000 to April 2020
Graph 9: Industrial Production, Year-to-Year Percent Change, 2000 to April 2020
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Index of Industrial Production (2012 = 100)
Level to April 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
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Industrial Production (Year-to-Year Percent Change) To April 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 14
Graph 10: Manufacturing, Complete History
Graph 11: Manufacturing, Year-to-Year Change, Complete History
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Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 15
Graph 12: Manufacturing, 2000 to April 2020
Graph 13: Manufacturing, Year-to-Year Change, 2000 to April 2020
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-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year-
to-Y
ear
Perc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
Industrial Production - Manufacturing (Yr-to-Yr Percent Change) To April 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 16
Graph 14: Mining, 2000 to April 2020
Graph 15: Mining, Year-to-Year Change, 2000 to April 2020
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ind
ex L
evel,
2012 =
100
Industrial Production - Mining (Including Oil & Gas) To April 2020, (2012 = 100) Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year-
to-Y
ear
Perc
en
t C
han
ge
Production - Mining (Year-to-Year Percent Change) To April 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 17
Graph 16: Utilities, 2000 to April 2020
Graph 17: Utilities, Year-to-Year Change, 2000 to April 2020
[Durable Goods Benchmarking begins on the next page]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ind
ex L
evel,
2012 =
100
Industrial Production - Utilities (2012 = 100) Level to April 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year-
to-Y
ear
Perc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
Production - Utilities (Year-to-Year Percent Change) To April 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 18
Benchmarking of New Orders for Durable Goods
Downside Benchmark Revisions to Retail and Sales and New Orders for Durable Goods
Suggest July 30th Downside Benchmark Revisions to Pre-Pandemic GDP
Benchmarked Durable Goods Showed Real New Orders Since 2017 to Have Been Lower by
Roughly 2% to 3% Than Previously Reported. In combination with recent annual downside revisions
to Retail Sales (see Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1433), and what now most certainly will be downside
annual revisions to Industrial Production, headline GDP coming into the Pandemic shutdown was not in
sustainable-moderate or booming economic growth as advertised variously by the Federal Reserve and
Wall Street. Accordingly, pre-Pandemic GDP should face downside revisions of the last year or two,
come its July 30th benchmarking.
Reflected in Graphs 18 and 19, annual growth revised lower b 0.9% (-0.9%) in 2016, by 1.3% (-1.3%) in
2017, by 2.0% (-2.0%) in 2018, by 2.3% (-2.3%) in 2019 and by 1.8% (-1.8%) in the first three months of
2020. Traditionally, the pending Industrial Production benchmarking (sometime after June, presumably
before the July 30th GDP benchmarking) tends to parallel the Durable Goods revisions. Graphs 20 to 23
show the regular monthly graphs of activity, albeit at the benchmarked levels.
[Graphs 18 to 23 begin on the next page]
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/csfu1433.pdf
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 19
Graph 18: 2020 Benchmark Revisions to Nominal New Orders for Durable Goods
Graph 19: 2020 Benchmark Revisions to Real New Orders for Durable Goods
210
220
230
240
250
260
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
of
Cu
rren
t D
oll
ars
Revisions to New Orders for Durable Goods Smoothed with a Six-Month Moving Average
To March 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census, BLS]
Prior Reporting through March 2020
2020 Benchmark Revisions
200
205
210
215
220
225
230
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
of
Co
ns
tan
t 2009 D
oll
ars
Revisions to Real New Orders for Durable Goods Smoothed with a Six-Month Moving Average
Billions of $2009, Deflated by PPI Durable Manufactured Goods
To March 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census, BLS]
Prior Reporting through March 2020
2020 Benchmark Revisions
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 20
Graph 20: Benchmarked Real New Orders for Durable Goods
Graph 21: Benchmarked Real New Orders for Durable Goods, Year-to-Year Percent Change
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
of
Co
ns
tan
t 2009 D
oll
ars
Benchmarked Real New Orders for Durable Goods Billions of Constant $2009, Deflated by PPI Durable Manufactured Goods
To March 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census, BLS]
One-Month Reported
Six-Month Moving Average
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year-
to-Y
ear
Perc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
Real New Orders for Durable Goods Year-to-Year Percent Change, Deflated by PPI Durable Manufactured Goods
To March 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census, BLS]
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 21
Graph 22: Benchmarked Real New Orders (Ex-Commercial Aircraft)
Graph 23: Benchmarked Real New Orders (Ex-Commercial Aircraft), Year-to-Year Percent Change
[Alternate Recession Measures begin on the next page]
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
of
Co
ns
tan
t 2009 D
oll
ars
Real New Orders for Durable Goods (Ex-Commercial Aircraft) Billions of Constant $2009, Deflated by PPI Durable Manufactured Goods
To March 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census, BLS]
One-Month Reported
Six-Month Moving Average
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year-
to-Y
ear
Perc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
Real New Orders for Durable Goods (Ex-Commercial Aircraft) Year-to-Year Percent Change, Deflated by PPI Durable Manufactured Goods
Monthly to March 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census, BLS]
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 22
Alternate Recession Measurement
Manufacturing, Orders and Freight Activity
AGAINST ALTERNATE RECESSION MEASURES (Updated from Flash Commentary No. 1436)
Discussed and plotted in Flash Commentary No. 1436, but renumbered here Graphs 25 and 26 plot the
level of the Cass Freight Index®, along with its 12-month trailing or moving average, against formal
recessions since 2000, as well as against prospective or “missed” recessions as discussed in Flash Update
No. 22, and as seen against updated Graph 24 of April 2020 Industrial Production Capacity Utilization,
traditionally used to time formal recessions.
Consider as well the parallels seen between Graph 25 plotting the level of the Cass Freight Index®, along
with its 12-month trailing or moving average, against formal recessions, as well as against prospective or
“missed” recessions as discussed, with Graph 26 of April Manufacturing and Graph 29 of Real Durable
Goods Orders. Similar parallels can be seen Graph 27, Graph 28 and Graph 30, reflecting annual
growth rates. The Durable Goods are missing April data, which should match the other series, when
released and as will be otherwise updated when published.
Graph 24: Capacity Utilization versus Recessions and Alternate Recession Measures (2000 to April 2020)
[Graphs 25 to 30 begin on the next page]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
64%
68%
72%
76%
80%
84%
88%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Perc
en
t o
f T
ota
l U
.S. In
du
str
ial C
ap
acit
y U
tili
zed
Capacity Utilization: Total U.S. Industry to April 2020 With An Alternate Recession Definition
Percent of Capacity, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
Headline and Alternate Definition Recessions
Capacity Utilization
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/cflash1436.pdfhttp://www.shadowstats.com/article/cflash1436.pdfhttp://www.shadowstats.com/article/cflash22.pdfhttp://www.shadowstats.com/article/cflash22.pdf
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 23
Graph 25: Cass Freight Index®, Monthly Level of Unadjusted Activity vs. 12-Month Trailing Average
Graph 26: Manufacturing, Monthly Level of Adjusted Activity vs. 12-Month Trailing Average
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ind
ex L
evel,
Jan
ua
ry 2
000 =
100
Cass Freight Index® (Jan 2000 = 100) To April 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted
[ShadowStats, Cass Information Systems, Inc.]
Alternate Definition - Prospective Recession
Monthly Level, Not Seasonally Adjusted
12-Month Trailing Average
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
86
90
94
98
102
106
110
114
118
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ind
ex L
evel,
Jan
ua
ry 2
000 =
100
Production - Manufacturing (SIC) Index Reset to January 2000 = 100, Monthly and 12-Month Moving Average
To April 2020, Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
Alternate Definition and ProspectiveRecessionMonthly Manufacturing Index Level
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 24
Graph 27: Cass Freight Index®, Year-to-Year Percent Change and Alternate Recession Measures
Graph 28: Manufacturing, Year-to-Year Percent Change and Alternate Recession Measures
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year-
to-Y
ear
Ch
an
ge
Cass Freight Index® (Year-to-Year Percent Change) Monthly to April 2020, Not Seasonally Adjusted [ShadowStats, Cass Information Systems, Inc.]
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-20%
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year-
to-Y
ear
Perc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
Industrial Production - Manufacturing (Yr-to-Yr Percent Change) To April 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, FRB]
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 25
Real New Orders for Durable Goods here have been published only through March 2020. The April 2020
year-to-year change likely will be sharply negative, as seen with the previous indicators
Graph 29: Real New Orders for Durable Goods, Monthly Level of Adjusted Activity vs. 12-Month Trailing Average
Graph 30: Real Durable Goods Orders, Year-to-Year Percent Change and Alternate Recession Measures
[Updated Financial Market Graphs 31 to 35 begin on the next page]
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
of
Co
ns
tan
t 2009 D
oll
ars
Real Durable Goods Orders (Ex-Commercial Aircraft) Billions of Constant $2009, Deflated by PPI Durable Manufactured Goods
To December 2019, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census, BLS]
Official and Alternative Recession Definitions
Monthly Level, Seasonally-Adjusted
12-Month Trailing Average
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year-
to-Y
ear
Perc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
Real New Orders for Durable Goods (Ex-Commercial Aircraft) Year-to-Year Percent Change, Deflated by PPI Durable Manufactured Goods
Monthly to March 2020, Seasonally-Adjusted [ShadowStats, Census, BLS]
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 26
Updated Financial Market Graphs to May 15, 2020
Physical Gold and Swiss Franc Continue to Protect U.S. Dollar Purchasing Power
Graph 31: February to May 2020 Financial Markets -- Scale: Feb. 12 = 100, Day of DJIA All-Time High Close
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Ind
exe
d V
alu
e F
eb
ruar
y 1
2 =
10
0 (
DJI
A P
eak
)
February 2020 to May 2020 Financial Markets Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Gold and Swiss Franc All Indexed to February 12 = 100 (the DJIA Peak Level)
Gold
Swiss Franc
DJIA
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 27
Graph 32: Dow Jones Industrial Average versus Gold (Monthly Average)
Graph 33: Total Return S&P 500® versus Gold (Month End)
0
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Ind
exed
to
Jan
ua
ry 2
000 =
100
Monthly Average Nominal London P.M. Gold Fix Versus the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Monthly Average Jan 2000 to Apr 2020, Indexed to Jan 2000 = 100 Gold Price, Dow Jones Industrial Average Close May 15, 2020
[ShadowStats, St. Louis Fed, S&P Dow Jones Indice
Formal Recessions
Monthly Average London PM Gold Fix
Last New York Gold Close
Monthly Average DJIA Daily Close
Last DJIA Close
0
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Ind
exed
to
Jan
ua
ry 2
000 =
100
Month-End Nominal London P.M. Gold Fix versus the Total Return S&P 500® Index (Reinvested Dividends) Month-End January 2000 to April 2020, Indexed to Jan 2000 = 100
Gold Price, S&P Total Return NY Close May 15, 2020 [ShadowStats, St. Louis Fed, S&P Dow Jone
Formal Recessions
Month-End London PM Gold Fix
Last New York Gold Close
Month-End S&P 500 Total Return Index
Last S&P 500 Total Return Close
-
Shadow Government Statistics — Special Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1437 — May 17, 2020
Copyright 2020 Shadow Government Statistics, Walter J. Williams, www.shadowstats.com 28
Graph 34: Gold versus Swiss Franc
Graph 35: Gold versus Silver
###
0.22
0.35
0.47
0.60
0.72
0.85
0.97
1.10
1.22
1.35
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
U.S
. D
ollars
per
Sw
iss F
ran
c
Go
ld P
rice -
Do
llars
per
Tro
y O
un
ce
Gold versus Swiss Franc (CHF) in U.S. Dollars Monthly Average Price or Exchange Rate to April 2020
Latest Points - May 15, 2020 [ShadowStats, Kitco, FRB, WSJ]
Gold - Monthly Average
Gold - Latest
Swiss Franc - USD/CHF - Monthly Average
CHF - Latest
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Go
ld P
rice -
U.S
. D
ollars
per
Tro
y O
un
ce
Silver
Pri
ce -
U.S
. D
ollars
per
Tro
y O
un
ce
Gold versus Silver Price Levels Monthly Average Price in U.S. Dollars per Troy Ounce to April 2020
Latest Points - May 15, 2020 [ShadowStats, Kitco, Stooq]
Silver - Monthly Average
Silver - Latest
Gold - Monthly Average
Gold - Latest