SET-NAV PATHWAYS DEFINITION · Dr. Pedro Crespo del Granado, Norwegian University of Science and...
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Navigating the Roadmap for Clean, Secure and Efficient Energy Innovation SET-Nav Regional Workshop, Budapest, Feb 26 th , 2019 Dr. Pedro Crespo del Granado, Norwegian University of Science and Technology Dr. Gustav Resch, Technische Universität Wien SET-N AV P ATHWAYS D EFINITION
Transcript of SET-NAV PATHWAYS DEFINITION · Dr. Pedro Crespo del Granado, Norwegian University of Science and...
Navigating the Roadmap for Clean, Secure and Efficient
Energy Innovation
SET-Nav Regional Workshop, Budapest, Feb 26th, 2019
Dr. Pedro Crespo del Granado, Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Dr. Gustav Resch, Technische Universität Wien
SET-NAV PATHWAYS
DEFINITION
WHAT IS A PATHWAY?
SET-NAV PATHWAYSFOR THE E NERGY T RANSIT ION
- B RIEF I NTRODUCTION
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MAPPING PATHWAYSBASIC SCENARIO TYPOLOGYEXPLORES TWO KEY UNCERTAINTIES
entrenchment
cooperation path dependencydece
ntra
lisat
ion
Minimise switching or transitional costs
Maximise variation or
experimentation
Maximise integration & coordination
Maximise national control &
particularities
• Scenario topology: Exploring two key uncertainties
• Proposed 2x2 scenario typology = cooperation-boundaries x decentralisation-path dependency
Pathway analysis: Pathway definition / Storylines
SET-NAV: PATHWAY ANALYSIS
Diversifi-cation
Directed vision
Local-ization
National champions
- local resources resistance to big infrastructure developments- experimentation & diversity (many niches)- digital winners-take-all
- heterogeneous actors- coordination (beyond markets)- digitalization (open IP)- regulatory change- disrupt incumbents
- utilities & incumbents- regulatory capture- low transition costs
- EU/state-directed- shared vision- strong EU policy framework
SET-NAV PATHWAYSFOR THE E NERGY T RANSIT ION
- C OMMON ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE DIFFERENT PATHWAYS
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SET-NAV PATHWAYSFOR THE E NERGY T RANSIT ION
- U NDERLYING R ESEARCH Q UESTIONS AND OBJECTIVES
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SET-NAV PATHWAYSFOR THE E NERGY T RANSIT ION
- U NDERLYING R ESEARCH Q UESTIONS AND OBJECTIVES
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Need consistent & coherent quantitative representation of pathways across models
Models have different…
▪ Approaches (econ perspective; math approach)
▪ Foci: strengths & weaknesses
▪ Scopes, scales, granularities, info struct (stat-dynam; det-stoch; open-closed loop)
▪ Exogenous (parameters) vs endogenous variables: boundary conditions
▪ units of measurement, e.g., physical vs monetary representation;
▪ Features give complementary strengths but pose challenges for exchanging data
Use each model's strengths by using one model’s results as another’s boundary conditions
▪ but generally mismatch in scopes, granularities, etc.
LINKING MODELS - WHY
WP4
•Global perspectives
WP5
•Demand
WP6 & 7
• Infrastructure
•Supply
WP8
•Macro Economy
PROCESS FOR EACH PATHWAY
Common assumptions (harmonization of key parameters)
Pathways main features applied to the model chainExogenous
features(storylines)
IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS, MODELLING TEAMS:
TEPES
ENERTILE
EMPIRE EGMM
GGM
CCS development and costs
GREEN-X
Forecast
INVERT
Astra
Gas sectorGas Prices
Multi-ModWP4
CCTS Mod
SET-Nav Madrid Meeting, 03/2018
Macro Models
EMPIRE
RobustnessControl Tool
EMPIRE
Nexus Security
- All pathways require the implementation of strong measures to achieve expected outcomes and trigger an effective energy transition
- In the power system: Wind energy will be central along with a strengthen transmission grid
- Natural gas in the (European) energy transition: part of the problem, or part of the solution?
- Will available technologies be sufficient to decarbonize the industry sector?
- What CO2 prices will be expected?
PATHWAYS MAIN OVERALL OUTCOMES
(PRESENTATIONS TODAY)
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www.set-nav.eu
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WP9 leader “Comparative assessments: technology/policy options and path-ways”
Prof. Dr. Ruud Egging and Dr. Pedro Crespo del GranadoDepartment of Industrial Economics and Technology ManagementNorwegian University of Science and Technology
Website: https://www.ntnu.edu/iotE-mail: [email protected] ; [email protected]: +47 735 97612
Project Coordinator
Dr. Gustav ReschVienna University of Technology, Institute of Energy Systems and Electric Drives, TU Wien, EEG - Energy Economics Group
Website: www.eeg.tuwien.ac.atE-mail: [email protected]: +43-1-58801-370354
Pathway analysis: Pathway definition / Storylines
SET-NAV: PATHWAY ANALYSIS
National champions
Directed vision
Diversifi-cation
Local-ization
