Session A2: 10:20am WELCOME TO EDMONTON: THE IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH … · 2014. 5. 8. ·...
Transcript of Session A2: 10:20am WELCOME TO EDMONTON: THE IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH … · 2014. 5. 8. ·...
-
Session A2: 10:20am WELCOME TO EDMONTON: THE IMPACT OF
POPULATION GROWTH ON THE HOUSING MARKET
Session A2: 10:20am WELCOME TO EDMONTON: THE IMPACT OF
POPULATION GROWTH ON THE HOUSING MARKET
• Moderator: Brad Gingerich, Senior Vice President, CBRE Limited • Panel: • Bill Blais, Vice President Land Development, Maclab Enterprises • Chris?na Butchart, Senior Market Analyst, CMHC • Rohit Gupta, President, Rohit Communi?es • Michael Smith, Senior Vice President, Mul? Family, WAM Development Group
-
Housing market intelligence you can count on!!
2014 Edmonton Real Estate Forum !
May 8, 2014 Edmonton Economic and Housing Market Outlook Christina Butchart, Senior Market Analyst
-
• Economic Outlook New Single-‐family Market New Mul8-‐family Market Rental Market
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Economic & Housing Outlook - Agenda
-
Edmonton CMA Net Migration���Net migration boosts housing demand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
• net migra?on
• Source: Sta?s?cs Canada, July to June, CMHC Forecast (f)
-
Edmonton CMA Population Growth"
Net migration fuelling higher population growth!
0.0"
1.0"
2.0"
3.0"
4.0"
1988" 1991" 1994" 1997" 2000" 2003" 2006" 2009" 2012"
Source: Statistics Canada!
year-over-year per cent growth"
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION!
-
Edmonton CMA Employment Growth"Employment to increase in 2014 and 2015!
-2%"
-1%"
0%"
1%"
2%"
3%"
4%"
5%"
6%"
7%"
2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014f" 2015f"
employment growth year-over-year"
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)"
-
Housing market intelligence you can count on!!
Edmonton’s New Single-Detached Market
-
Edmonton CMA Single-detached Starts New construction
trending upward in Edmonton!
0"
1,000"
2,000"
3,000"
4,000"
5,000"
6,000"
7,000"
8,000"
9,000"
10,000"
2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014"
SAAR" Trend"
units"
Source: CMHC, SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate)"
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION!
-
Edmonton CMA Single-detached Supply"Supply gradually trending higher!
0"
1,000"
2,000"
3,000"
4,000"
5,000"
6,000"
7,000"
8,000"
2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014"
Inventory" Under Construction"
complete and unabsorbed plus units under construction"
Source: CMHC"
-
Edmonton CMA Single-detached Starts"Continued growth in single-detached construction in 2014
0"
1,000"
2,000"
3,000"
4,000"
5,000"
6,000"
7,000"
8,000"
9,000"
10,000"
2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014f" 2015f"
units"
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)"
-
Edmonton CMA Single-detached Price"Absorbed prices starting to move higher!
$0"
$100,000"
$200,000"
$300,000"
$400,000"
$500,000"
$600,000"
2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014"
Average" Median"
absorbed price (6-month moving average)"
Source: CMHC"
-
Housing market intelligence you can count on!!
Edmonton’s New Multi-family Market
-
Edmonton CMA Multi-family Market Share���Multi-family starts accounting for a larger share of the market
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
Semi
Row
Apartment
• Mul?-‐family starts as a percentage of total starts
• Source: CMHC
-
Edmonton CMA Multi-family Starts��� Multi-family construction trending lower
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
SAAR
Trend
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units
Source: CMHC, SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate)
-
Edmonton CMA Multi-family Inventory���Lower apartment inventories spurred construction in 2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Semi
Row
Apt
• units
• Source: CMHC
-
Edmonton Multi-family Under Construction���Increase in units underway to put upward pressure on
inventories
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Semi-detached
Row
Apartment
• units
• Source: CMHC
-
Edmonton CMA Multi-family Starts���After strong performance in 2013, expected to moderate in 2014
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
• units
• Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
-
Housing market intelligence you can count on!!
Edmonton’s Rental Market
-
Edmonton CMA Apartment Vacancy Rate���Vacancy rate continued to decline in 2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
per cent
Source: CMHC, October Surveys, CMHC Forecast (f)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
-
Edmonton CMA Rental Apartment Starts���Low vacancy rate has led to rental apartment construction
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units
Source: CMHC
-
Edmonton CMA Average Apartment Rent���Rents will continue to rise
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
average two-bedroom rent
Source: CMHC, October Surveys, CMHC Forecast (f)
-
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION!
2012! 2013! 2014f! 2015f!
Economy!
Employment Growth (%)! 3.3! 3.6! 2.2! 2.0!
Net Migration! 24,928! 38,511! 20,000! 18,000!
Resale Market*!
Total Sales! 17,641! 19,552! 19,800! 20,100!
Average Price! $334,319! $344,977! $353,000! $360,000!
New Home Market!
Single-detached Starts! 5,658! 5,970! 6,200! 6,300!
Multi-family Starts! 7,179! 8,719! 7,000! 6,400!
Rental Market (October Survey)!
Apartment Vacancy Rate! 1.7%! 1.4%! 1.6%! 1.7%!
Average Two-bedroom Rent! $1,071! $1,141! $1,175! $1,200!
Edmonton CMA Forecast Summary"
!* Total Residential!!!Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, CREA, CMHC Forecast (f)!!The forecasts included in this table reflect information available as of January 22, 2014!
-
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Christina Butchart
Senior Market Analyst, CMHC
(780) 423-8729
Contact Information
-
Housing market intelligence you can count on!!
Thank You!!