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Samhällsscenarier

som beskriver drivkrafter

för framtidens fordon

Transportforum 2011-01-13

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Anders GrauersSwedish Hybrid Center

Else-Marie MalmekMalmeken AB/SAFER

Vehicle and Traffic Safety Centre

FFI project

Fordonsstrategisk Forskning och Innovation

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© SEVS 2010

Sustainable road transportation solutions for goods

and people – by year 2030+

Efficiency, Safety, No/low emissions, Affordable

Phase 1 : July 2009 – June 2010

Phase 2 : 2011 - 2015

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Outlook

Rapid development –

On all system levels!

Research on concepts and

technologies needed!

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Overview of SEVS scope

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Road map

1a Technology

1a Society1. Stakeholder

2. Stakeholder category

3. Mobility needs

6. SustainableMobility solutions”Balancing Act”

7. Products and services

8. Resources

Belongs to

Have Fulfils

Consist of

Require/consume

Requirements/expectations on

9. Partnership

5.Technology aspects:

•Light weight •Energy Storage and Batteries

•Sensor technology•Driveline and energysource

•Vehicle architectures•Safety•Infrastructure and energy

Requirements/possibilities

4.Society aspects:•Political•Environmetal•Economic•Social

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Scenario Planning Process –Not predict the future - Learn about the driving forces!

Driving force

Driving force

Driving force

Today 2030+

Driving force

Many futures

Uncertaity

Strong

impact

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Key Drivers

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14.CSharing dev. Cost

13.DTelecom-muting

5.DProd.devcycletime

13.BCity planning

11.CDiversification of infrastructsolutions

8.BNationalEnergysecurity

9.CUrbani-sation

19.CDemand fortransport

14.BSharingdev.risk

19.BAvailabilityof riskcapital19.DEk. develop.Växande/Krymp.

4.CMeetingCustomerdemands

5.CCompanies-Near timeprofit

6.BPopulationchange

12.DStrive forprofit

12.CQuickPoliticalresults

5.EInfrastruct.Ineartia

8.CPeakoil

18.BLimitateClimatechange

17.CNew carAsessmentprogram

10.BProfit – newBusinesssModels ortechn.

18.CLocal Airquality

4.DCreativityAmongemployes

18.DExtraction/Usage/recycling

7.BLimitatinIn rawmaterials

5.BOmställ-nings-tröghet

5.FMgmtMindsetAut.industry

9.E/15.BCriminalityGoods,People

17.BGenerateOf newneeds

18.EConsump-tionlevel

9.DAttitudesTowardConsumption

9.BValuese.g.ownership

13.CValuese.g.travelling

8.DTechn. Invent.Energysupply 4.E

LegislationDrive newtechnology

14.DNeed forNew infra-structure16.C

Political Decisions-incentives

12.BImproveSociety in theLong term

16.BCity planningHand in handDe. Of transport

11.BPoliticalWillingnessOr inertia

Hög

påverkan

Unceratin

Låg

påverkan

Säker

Societys

proactivty and

ability to change

Included in all

scenarios

Customers

lifestyle/

personal values

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Scenario by 2030+

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Incremental Development

Society Perspective

• Economic growth, jobs and general welfare

dominate the political agenda

• Effects of global warming are handled locally

• The world is divided in the environment question

Technology perspective

• Cars are valued by looks, driving experience,

status, etc.

• The vehicle and transport industry is constrained

by its heritage

• Intelligent transport solutions are focused on

solving the congestion problem

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Eco Political

Society Perspective

• Traditional values omong people

• “Green and Safe” needs to be affordable

• New driving habits needed

Technology perspective

• Innovative IT solutions for mass transportation

• Co-modality in focus

• Traditional vehicles but Hybrid or Electric

• New light weight materials

• Standardisation

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Eco Individual

Society Perspective

• Inhabitants with a different set of values

• Willing to spend more on green/safe transports

• “Buycott” not boycott

• Green and safe are THE status symbols

Technology perspective

• New business models to support all kind of

new energy sources

• Diversified transportations and traveling

• Less is more

• The “0-100” generation” is gone

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Radicalism in Harmony

Society Perspective

• People are really living green and safe

• Competing for being “best”

• Individuals & Regions & Organisations

competes “in harmony”

Technology perspective

• Local solutions, global actions!

• Fast acceptance and intro of new better

technologies

• Innovation and § goes hand in hand

• Urban areas changes rapidly

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Road map

1a Technology

1a Society1. Stakeholder

2. Stakeholder category

3. Mobility needs

6. SustainableMobility solutions”Balancing Act”

7. Products and services

8. Resources

Belongs to

Have Fulfils

Consist of

Require/consume

Requirements/expectations on

9. Partnership

5.Technology aspects:

•Light weight •Energy Storage and Batteries

•Sensor technology•Driveline and energysource

•Vehicle architectures•Safety•Infrastructure and energy

Requirements/possibilities

4.Society aspects:•Political•Environmetal•Economic•Social

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7 Vehicle Concepts

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Morphologic Matrix

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Sammanfattning

• Både teknik- och samhällsperspektiven är

nödvändiga för att hitta hållbara lösningar.

• Framtidens samhälle rymmer stora osäkerheter.

• Scenarier hjälper oss hantera osäkerheterna.

Därför behövs projekt där samhälls- och

teknikperspektivet möts för att utforska hållbara

transportlösningar.

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© SEVS 2010