Session 2 Marketing Research Forecasting Developing the research plan Data Sources Primary ...

Session 2

Marketing Research Forecasting

Developing the research plan Data Sources

Primary Secondary

Developing the research plan Approaches

Observational Focus group Survey Behavioral Data Experimental Technological Questionnaire

Question types – importance scale

Airline food service is _____ to me.

Extremely important

Very important

Somewhat important

Not very important

Not at all important

Question types – rating scale

Virgin Atlantic’s food service is _____.

Excellent

Very good

Good

Fair

Poor

Question types –intention to buy scale

How likely are you to purchase tickets on Virgin Atlantic if in-flight Internet access were available?

Definitely buy

Probably buy

Not sure

Probably not buy

Definitely not buy

Question types –completely unstructured

What is your opinion of Virgin Atlantic?

Question types –word association

What is the first word that comes to your mind when you hear the following?

Airline ________________________

British _____________________

Travel ________________________

Question types –sentence completion

When I choose an airline, the most important consideration in my decision is: ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________.

Question types –story completion

‘I flew Virgin a few days ago. I noticed that the exterior and interior of the plane had very bright colors. This aroused in me the following thoughts and feelings’. Now complete the story. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Question types –picture (empty balloons)

Qualitative measures

Word associationWord association

Projective techniquesProjective techniques

VisualizationVisualization

Brand personificationBrand personification

LadderingLaddering

Technological devices

Galvanometers

Tachistoscope

Eye cameras

Audiometers

GPS

Sampling plan

Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed? Sample size: How many people should

be surveyed? Sampling procedure: How should the

respondents be chosen?

Types of samples

Table 6.2 Probability and non-probability samples

Contact methods

Mail questionnaire

Telephoneinterview

Personalinterview

Onlineinterview

Pros and cons of online research

Advantages Inexpensive Fast Accuracy of data,

even for sensitive questions

Versatility

Disadvantages Small samples Skewed samples Technological

problems Inconsistencies

1) Scientific method

2) Research creativity

3) Multiple methods

4) Interdependence of models and data

5) Value and cost of information

6) Healthy scepticism

7) Ethical marketing

Characteristics of good marketing research

Barriers to the use of marketing research

Narrow conception of research

Uneven calibre of researchers

Poor framing of the problem

Late and occasionally erroneous findings

Personality and presentational differences

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Kotler, Keller, Brady, Goodman and Hansen, Marketing Management, 1st Edition © Pearson Education Limited 2009

The measures of market demand

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Market demand = total volume that would be bought by a customer group, in a particular time period, in a marketing environment, under marketing program

Market forecast = market demand corresponding to a certain level of marketing expenditure

Primary demand = total volume demanded by customers for a product category

Secondary demand = total volume demanded by customers for a specific brand or product

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Figure 6.4 Market demand functions

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Figure 6.4 Market demand functions (continued)

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Unit vs. Dollar Share in USRazor Blades

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How can we estimate current demand?

Total market potential

Area market potential Market buildup method

Potential buyers x potential purchases Multiple-factor index method

Population, Income, Physicians, Retail sales

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Sales Forecasting vs. Demand Forecasting

Basically interchangeable terms Sales Forecasts are biased by:

Inventory stock-out (under-estimation of demand)

Promotions (over-estimation of demand)

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Demand Forecasting Model

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Mathematical

Time Series Exponential Smoothing Statistical Demand Analysis Econometric Analysis

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Qualitative Adjustments

Price Promotions, Events Trends Growth Rates Market Data

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Non-mathmatical

Group discussion (Consensus) Pooled individual estimates Delphi technique Jury of executive opinion Composite of sales force opinion

(Rollup) Analogy

Customer surveys Test marketing

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Look for S Curves Inflection points 20 years: “Never mistake a clear

view for a short distance” Look for indicators

“The future’s already arrived. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” William Gibson

Black Swans What do we really know? Turkey example. Open Minded, Skeptical, History Jumps

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Black Swan

member of the species Cygnus atratus, which remained

undocumented until the eighteenth century

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Taleb – The Black Swan

Mediorcistan vs. Extermistan Average (weight vs. income) of 1000 ppl.

Mistake map for territory Platonification – overvaluation of factual

information and creation of categories “absence of evidence vs. evidence of

absence” Precisely wrong (narrow model with

precise assumptions) or broadly right (across broad set of eventualities)

Session 2 Marketing Research Forecasting Developing the research plan Data Sources Primary ...

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