Sept 2011 final
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Transcript of Sept 2011 final
Economic Indicators:
Challenges for the 7 Rivers
Region
I am an economist.
I am not a prophet, visionary, seer, oracle or a
fortune teller.
Those folks have respectable jobs.
Non-Standard Disclaimer:
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1 12 23 34 45
Cumulative Monthly Employment Decline from NBER Peak (pct)
1990
2001
2007
12.4
12.6
12.8
13.0
13.2
13.4
13.6
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Real Gross Domestic Product :Trillions of 2000 Dollars
Revised Data
Original Data
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0 4 8 12 16
Cumulative % Decline in Quarterly GDP from Peak
1981
2001
1991
2007
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08
Percent of unemployed by
unemployment duration
< 5 Weeks
5 to 14 Weeks
15 to 26 Weeks
> 26 Weeks
Source: BLS
2450.0
2500.0
2550.0
2600.0
2650.0
2700.0
2750.0
2800.0
2850.0
2900.0
2950.0
Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Min
nesota
Non-F
arm
Em
plo
ym
ent:
Thousands
The Dayton Promise?: 240,000Jobs
Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o
2550.0
2600.0
2650.0
2700.0
2750.0
2800.0
2850.0
2900.0
2950.0
3000.0
3050.0
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Wis
consin
Non-F
arm
Em
plo
ym
ent:
Thousands
The Walker Promise: 250,000 Jobs
Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
Percentage - Employment to Population Ratio
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
Monthly Job Separations by Type in Millions
Quits
Layoffs and Discharges
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
Monthly Job Openings in Millions
Openings
- 10 20 30 40 50
very satisfied
somewhat satisfied
somewhat dissatisfied
very dissatisfied
When it comes to your current job security, are you...
Fall 2011
Spring 2011
- 10 20 30 40 50 60
Pretty much hit the bottom
Still a ways to go
Other
Thinking about the country's economic conditions...
Fall 2011
Spring 2011
-35.0% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0%
5/17/19404/14/198811/6/20085/13/194011/5/2008
11/19/200810/7/2008
9/3/194611/20/2008
8/8/20114/14/20005/28/1962
10/22/20088/31/19989/26/19555/14/19405/21/1940
1/8/198810/13/1989
9/29/200810/27/1997
9/17/200110/9/200812/1/2008
10/15/200810/26/198710/19/1987
Bad Days for the Dow Jones Industrials Average: Percentage Change from Previous
Close
August 8, 2011
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
April 2002April 2003April 2004March 2006April 2007***August 2008***February 2009***February 2010***April 2011***
7 Rivers Consumer Sentiment
7 Rivers
National
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
Number of Building Permits in La Crosse MSA
Total Permits
Single Unit Permits
Broken Windows Fallacy
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10
Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices
Phoenix
Minneapolis
7 Rivers Region
90.0
110.0
130.0
150.0
Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11
Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices
Phoenix
Minneapolis
7 Rivers Region
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
1997-Jan 1999-Jan 2001-Jan 2003-Jan 2005-Jan 2007-Jan 2009-Jan 2011-Jan
Number of Single Family Listings Sold Monthly 7 Rivers Region
-
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1,000.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Total Number of Foreclosures Filed in: Jackson, Juneau, La Crosse, Monroe, Trempealeau, Vernon Counties
-
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011*
La Crosse Foreclosures Filed
Thanks.