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Outlook for LiquidsStuart R. McGillSenior Vice President
Goldman Sachs, New YorkJanuary 17, 2007
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Cautionary Statement
Forward-Looking Statements. Outlooks, projections, estimates, targets, and business plans in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Actual future results, including demand growth; production volumes and mix; resource recoveries; capacity additions; project plans, timing, and costs; development costs; efficiency improvements; and the impact of technology could differ materially due to a number of factors. These include changes in long-term oil or gas prices or other market conditions affecting the oil and gas industries; reservoir performance; timely completion of development projects; war and other political or security disturbances; changes in law or government regulation; the outcome of commercial negotiations; the actions of competitors; unexpected technological developments; the occurrence and duration of economic recessions; unforeseen technical difficulties; and other factors discussed here and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" on the Investor Information section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com.
Frequently Used Terms. References to resources, the resource base, oil equivalent barrels, and similar terms include quantities of oil and gas that are not yet classified as proved reserves but that we believe will likely be moved into the proved reserves category and produced in the future. Our discussions of reserves generally exclude the effects of year-end price/cost revisions and includes reserve attributable to equity companies and our Syncrude operations. For definitions and additional information regarding, reserves, return on capital employed, cash flow from operations and asset sales (also referred to as operating cash flow), and other terms used in this presentation, including information required by SEC Regulation G, see the "Frequently Used Terms“, quarterly 8-K filings regarding results of operations and financial condition, and other material posted on our website. The Financial and Operating Review on our website also shows ExxonMobil's net interest in specific projects.
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1950 1990 20300
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1950 1990 20300
2
4
6
8
10
1950 1990 2030
Global Economics and EnergyPopulation
0.9%
0.4%0.4%
1.1%1.1%
OECDOECD
Non-OECDNon-OECD
Billions
Energy Demand
1.6%
0.7%0.7%
2.4%2.4%
MBDOE
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
GDP
2.8%
2.2%2.2%
Trillion (2000$)
4.7%4.7%
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1980 2005 20300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 2005 20300
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 2005 2030
Global Energy Demand by FuelPrimary Energy
1.6%
1.6%1.6%
1.4%1.4%
1.7%1.7%
1.5%1.5%
LiquidsLiquids
GasGas
CoalCoal
OtherOther
MBDOE
Wind & Solar
10.5%
12.5%12.5%
8.4%
Wind
Solar
MBDOEAverage Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
Other Energy
1.5%
1.0%1.0%
2.2%2.2%
Nuclear
HydroHydro
Biomass / OtherBiomass / Other
MBDOE
Wind & Solar 10.5%
1.4%1.4%
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Global Liquids Supply & Demand
Liquids Demand
MBDOE
Crude & Condensate
Biofuels
Oil Sands
OtherNGL
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Changing View of Global Oil EndowmentBBO
Data provided under license by IHS Energy, Copyright, IHS Energy, its affiliated and subsidiary companies,all rights reserved
Discovery
Delayed Reporting
Growth
0
25
50
75
100
125
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
1981
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Resource Adds Replace Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Total endowment as estimated in 1981
Discovered Post 1981
Growth and late reporting of discoveries
Cumulative Production
Cumulative BBO
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Growth &Undiscovered
Trillions Barrels
ConventionalOil
EHO/TarSands
Oil ShaleConventionalOil
Oil in Place
ConventionalRecoverable
ResourceBase
0
2
4
6
8
Locations of Major Deposits
Large Liquids Resources Exist
Conventional Oil
Oil Sands
Oil Shale
Discovered
Produced Produced
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Technology Improving Resource Access
HondoCA
260 m
HondoHondoCACA
260 m260 m HarmonyCA
365 m
HarmonyHarmonyCACA
365 m365 m
LenaGOM300 m
LenaLenaGOMGOM300 m300 m
ZincGOM450 m
ZincZincGOMGOM450 m450 m
WestDeltaGOM50 m
WestWestDeltaDeltaGOMGOM50 m50 m
GrandIsle
GOM15 m
GrandGrandIsleIsle
GOMGOM15 m15 m
Hoover/DianaHoover/DianaDDCVDDCVGOMGOM
1460 m1460 m
MicaMicaGOMGOM
1326 m1326 m
1947 1962 1976 1983 1989 1993 2000 2003 2004 20052001
KizombaKizomba--BBAngolaAngola
FPSO/TLPFPSO/TLP1100 m1100 m
Marshall Madison GOM, 1478 mMarshall Madison GOM, 1478 mMarshall Madison GOM, 1478 m
XikombaXikombaAngolaAngola
EPSEPS--FPSO/SSFPSO/SS1356 m1356 m
KizombaKizomba--AAAngolaAngola
FPSO/TLPFPSO/TLP1189 m1189 m
2006
ErhaErhaNigeriaNigeria
FPSO/SSFPSO/SS1100 m1100 m
Schematic – Not to scaleSchematic Schematic –– Not to scaleNot to scale
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Yastreb Rig – Sakhalin Island
Technology Improving Resource Access
ExxonMobil Extending Drilling Reach0
5
10
15
20
250 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Horizontal Reach (ft)
Vert
ical
Dep
th (f
t)
1985 1990 1995 2000 2006
Horizontal Reach (k ft)
Vert
ical
Dep
th (k
ft)
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Technology Improving RecoveryReservoir SimulationReservoir Imaging
Cyclic Steam Stimulation - CSS Liquids Addition to Steam for Enhanced Recovery (LASER)
BITUMEN
STEAM+Diluent
Diluent
Well2
Well1
BITUMEN
Steam+Diluent
DiluentDiluent
Well2
Well1
Steam
Stage 1Steam Injection
Stage 2Soak
Stage 3Production
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ExxonMobil Resource Base (YE 2005)Total Resource Base
0
40
80
Total ResourceType
Regions
73 BOEB
Liquids
Gas
Conventional
DeepwaterSour gas related
Arctic
Heavy Oil
Russia/CaspianME/AP
Americas
Africa
EuropeOther
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OperateExecuteDefineSelectPlanning for Development
• Kashagan Ph 1• Tengiz Ph 1• East Area NGL II• Thunder Horse• Kiz C – Saxi• Kiz C - Mondo• ACG Ph 3• Statfjord Late
Life• Rosa• Marimba North• Volve
• Sakhalin-1 Ph 1 • Erha / Erha North• East Area AOR• Syncrude
Upgrader• Dalia• ACG Ph 2• Fram East
• Kearl Future Phases
• Kashagan Future Phases
• Tengiz Future Phases
• Sakhalin Future Phases
• Nigeria Satellites
• Bosi• Banyu Urip• Usan• Pazflor• Orion• CLOV• Bonga SW• Bonga N, NW• PSVM• Skarv/Idun• Tyrihans• Tempa Rossa
• Qatar GTL• Kearl Ph 1• Kizomba D
Satellites• Hebron
Liquids Projects: Opportunities in all Stages
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Advancing Major Liquids Projects
Project with peak production of ≥15 KOEBD (net)
North Sea Field DevelopmentsKearl
Caspian Mega-projects
Angola Deepwater
Nigeria JV Area &Deepwater
Banyu Urip
Thunderhorse
Tempa Rossa
Orion
GTL
Sakhalin
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Project Excellence - Cost & Schedule
0
50
100
<15% 15-40% >40%
0
50
100
<15% 15-40% >40%0
50
100
<15% 15-40% >40%
Schedule Variance vs. Plan - Percent of Projects
*Source: Independent Project Analysis, Inc.
ExxonMobilIndustry*
Industry* ExxonMobil
Cost Variance vs. Budget - Percent of Projects
Projects > $1B
Projects > $1B
< +15% +15 to 40% > +40%
< +15% +15 to 40% > +40% < +15% +15 to 40% > +40%
0
50
100
<15% 15-40% >40%< +15% +15 to 40% > +40%
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Execution Excellence – Faster Delivery
* No ExxonMobil interest; data from public information
Development TimeFull Fund to Start-up of Oil & Gas Production
Angola
U.S.A.
Russia
Nigeria
GenesisDiana Hoover
Thunder Horse
GirassolKiz AKiz BDalia
BongaErha
Sakhalin-2*Sakhalin-1 2005
2008
20082000
1999
20062005
20062005
2004Start-up 2001
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Months
EM OperatedOperated by Others
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Sakhalin 1 – Phase 1 - ChayvoSignificant oil developments
• 30% ExxonMobil Interest
• Offshore and onshoreextended reach drilling
• First oil October 2005 – sales to domestic markets
• Onshore processing plant and offshore export system startup in 2006
SMNGtie-in
Boatasyn
OnshoreProcessing
Facility
OrlanOffshorePlatform
Onshorewellsite
ExportTerminal &
SPM
ExportPipelineSystem
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Sakhalin 1 – Phase 1 - ChayvoSignificant oil developments
• DeKastri terminal – 1.3 MBO capacity
• Oil exports began October 2006 through single point mooring system
• Future development in planning stages
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Erha / Erha North
• 56.25% ExxonMobil interest
• First oil March 2006
• 32 subsea wells planned
• Producing ~240 KBD gross
• 2.2 MB new-build FPSO
• 340 MCFD gas injection
• 150 KBD water injection
Significant oil developments
OML 133 NigeriaWarri
Port Harcourt
1250 m1750 m
1500 m
1000 m
10 Km
Erha-3/3ST
Erha-7/7ST
Erha-2Erha-1
OML 133
Erha
Erha N
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Erha / Erha NorthSignificant oil developments
FPSO
Mooring Buoy
Subsea Manifolds
Drill Ship
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Upper Zakum
• 28% ExxonMobil interest
• Partner of choice based on technical capability
• 50 BOEB in-place resource
• 500 KBD current production
• Objective: increase production to 750 KBD
Significant oil developments
Zakum Central Processing Facility
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Banyu Urip
• 45% ExxonMobil interest
• >350 MBO gross recoverable
• Development plan
• 49 wells (34 producers)
• 165 KBD onshore facility
• 100 km, 20” oil pipeline to 2 MB conversion FSO
• Exploration potential remains
Significant oil developments
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Nigeria East Area
• ExxonMobil interest• 40% in AOR project• 51% in NGL project
• Additional Oil Recovery (AOR) project includes new drilling and gas injection
• NGL extraction and fractionation project
• Increase recoveries and eliminate routine flaring
• >$4B investment
Significant oil developments
0 0
10 16
Terminal
Mfem
Isobo
Utue
IyakEdop
Ubit
Oso
Ekpe AduaAsabo
Yoho
Inim
EkuUsari
MiKm
Asasa
Etim
Inanga
Ata
Idoho
Qua Iboe
EkpeWWKpono
Niger Delta
Producing FieldsGas Fields Undeveloped Fields
Enang
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Nigeria East AreaSignificant oil developments
EAP Production Forecast
250
200
150
100
50
02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Gross Production (KBD)
Base Decline
AOR
NGL
1/06 5/06 9/06 1/07 5/07 9/07 1/08
500
400
300
200
100
0
Flare EliminationMillion Standard Cubic Feet/Day
• Significant near-term volumes impact
• 560 MBOE additional oil recovery
• 300 MB NGLs
• Eliminates routine flaring
• Arrests oil decline
• Monetizes NGLs
• Conserves gas for future
Base Decline
AOR
NGL
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Cold Lake
• 100% Imperial interest
• Largest thermal in situ oil sands project in the world
• 4,000 active wells
• 850 MBO cumulative field production
Heavy oil and tar sands
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Cold LakeHeavy oil and tar sands
0
40
80
120
160
200
1965
Bitumen Production (KBD)
1975 1985 1995 2005
Phases1-6
Phases7-10
Average ProductionGrowth 1992-2005
4% per year
PilotProduction
13 17 25 30+Recovery Factor, %Phases11-13
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SyncrudeHeavy oil and tar sands
• 25% Imperial interest
• Oil sands mining and upgrading operation near Fort McMurray
• 1.7 BBO gross to date
SYNCRUDESYNCRUDE
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SyncrudeHeavy oil and tar sands
UpgraderUpgrader
• Recent upgrader expansion increased production capacity to 350 KBD
• Management Services Agreement signed November 2006
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KearlHeavy oil and tar sands
• 100% ExxonMobil and Imperial interest
• Potential mining project NE of Fort McMurray
• Phased development of > 4 BBO resource -- potential for 300 KBD
• Regulatory application filed in 2005 -- hearings completed November 2006
KEARLKEARL
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Making Social Impact
TrainingLocalContent
Community, Health and Environment
Employment
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ExxonMobil Superior Business Approach
Disciplined Investment
OperationalExcellence
IndustryLeadingReturns
SuperiorCash Flow
Growth in Shareholder
Value