SEMICON Singapore 2010 - Market Brief
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1
Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Outlook
SEMICON Singapore 2010
Dan TracySEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group
May 19, 2010
2
Outline
Update on current market and forecast for,Industry Trends
Semiconductor Equipment
Semiconductor Materials
Summary
3Source: Company reports
Outsource Manufacturers Monthly Sales
1Q 2010
- Flat vs. 4Q 2009
- 102% above 1Q 2009
Combined Monthly Revenues- 3 Mo. Avg.(ASE, SPIL, TSMC, and UMC)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jan-
03M
ar-0
3M
ay-0
3Ju
l-03
Sep-
03N
ov-0
3Ja
n-04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4Se
p-04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05M
ar-0
5M
ay-0
5Ju
l-05
Sep-
05N
ov-0
5Ja
n-06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6Se
p-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07M
ar-0
7M
ay-0
7Ju
l-07
Sep-
07N
ov-0
7Ja
n-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8Se
p-08
Nov
-08
Jan-
09M
ar-0
9M
ay-0
9Ju
l-09
Sep-
09N
ov-0
9Ja
n-10
Mar
-10
NT$
Mill
ions
4
2010 Semiconductor and IC Revenue Forecasts
Source: SEMI
21.9%
23.0%
24.0%
27.0%
27.2%
30.6%
31.0%
19.9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Gartner
VLSI Research
Databeans
Semico Research
IC Insights
Henderson Ventures
iSuppli
Future Horizons
5
Front End Fabs SpendingSpending in Front End Facilities
(Construction + Equipping)
-22%
77%
17%
-42%
-5%2%
64%
-6%
22%10%
-33%
-46%
88%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
US$ Billion
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Growth %
Taiwan
SE Asia
S. Korea
Japan
Europe &MideastChina
Americas
Growth
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, February 2010
6
Semiconductor Equipment
7
Worldwide Semiconductor (Fab, Test & Assembly) Equipment Trends
Worldwide Bookings and Billings forSemiconductor Equipment
(based on 3-month averages)
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
Jan-
97A
pr-9
7Ju
l-97
Oct
-97
Jan-
98A
pr-9
8Ju
l-98
Oct
-98
Jan-
99A
pr-9
9Ju
l-99
Oct
-99
Jan-
00A
pr-0
0Ju
l-00
Oct
-00
Jan-
01A
pr-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Jan-
02A
pr-0
2Ju
l-02
Oct
-02
Jan-
03A
pr-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Jan-
04A
pr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct
-04
Jan-
05A
pr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06A
pr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct
-06
Jan-
07A
pr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08A
pr-0
8Ju
l-08
Oct
-08
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10
US$
Bill
ions
Billings Bookings
Source: SEMI/SEAJ May 2010
8
Equipment Forecast By Market Region
Source: SEMI
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45
N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia 3.05 2.61 1.44 2.60China 2.99 1.89 0.94 1.90S.Korea 7.35 4.89 2.60 4.70Europe 2.94 2.45 0.97 2.40Taiwan 10.65 5.01 4.35 7.90Japan 9.31 7.04 2.23 3.90N. America 6.55 5.63 3.39 4.70
2007 (A) 2008 (A) 2009 (A) 2010 (F)
US$
Bill
ions
$15.92
$28.10$29.52
$42.84
-Totals may not add due to rounding- Includes fab, test, assembly, & other equipment
9
Equipment Forecast by Segment
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45
Wafer Process Assembly & Pack. Test Other
Other 2.92 2.00 1.11 1.90Test 5.05 3.45 1.55 2.50Assembly & Pack. 2.84 2.04 1.41 2.30Wafer Process 31.95 22.03 11.84 21.40
2007 (A) 2008 (A) 2009 (A) 2010 (F)
US$
Bill
ions
$29.52
$15.92
$28.10
$42.84
Source: SEMI
-Totals may not add due to rounding
10
Equipment Spending Trends
16%
13%15%
17%
20% 20%
17%
20%
14%13%
17%
14%16%
12%
24%
17%
13%
17%
7%
11%$166.6
$213.0$227.5
$140.7$139.0
$204.4
$125.6
$149.4$137.2
$132.0
$144.4$102.0
$77.0$60.0$55.0
$247.7 $255.6$248.6
$226.3
$267.0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
F
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
US$
Bill
ions
Equipment Spending % of Semiconductor Revenue
Semiconductor Revenue ($B) WSTS
Source: SEMI and SIA, SEMI Forecast Estimate
Line ChartBar Charts
11
Semiconductor Materials
12
Leadframes-Unit shipments have recovered
Global Leadframe Shipments
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Jan-0
6Apr-
06Ju
l-06
Oct-06
Jan-0
7Apr-
07Ju
l-07
Oct-07
Jan-0
8Apr-
08Ju
l-08
Oct-08
Jan-0
9Apr-
09Ju
l-09
Oct-09
Jan-1
0
Mill
ions
of U
nits
IC Discrete
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription
13
Worldwide Wafer Fab Materials Forecast
Actual Actual Forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Silicon Wafers1 12,830 11,924 7,125 8,782 9,745
Photomasks2 2,975 2,948 2,732 2,926 2,994
Photoresists 1,144 1,116 920 1,092 1,184
Photoresist Ancillaries3 1,219 1,225 1,075 1,279 1,389
Wet Chemicals4 904 923 905 941 983
Gases 3,229 3,100 2,465 2,929 3,177
Sputter Targets4 480 508 356 391 438
CMP Slurry & Pads5 1,024 1,007 916 1,105 1,241
Other/New Materials6 1,271 1,439 1,359 1,575 1,757
Total $25,076 $24,191 $17,854 $21,020 $22,908% Growth -3.5% -22.1% 17.7% 9.0%
US$ Millions
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription February 2010
Totals may not add due to rounding
14
Wafer Fab Materials Forecast Notes
1. Silicon wafers include merchant sales value only; includes SOI wafers; no reclaim wafers
2. Includes captive market3. Includes resist removal chemicals, developers, anti-reflective
coatings, contrast enhancers, edge bead removers, adhesion promoters, etc.
4. Source is Techcet Group LLC, includes precious metals5. Estimates for IC applications only6. Includes low k dielectrics, copper plating solutions, dielectric
precursors, organometallic precursors, etc.7. All forecasts in current dollars8. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated
Source: SEMI February 2010
15
Worldwide SemiconductorPackaging Materials Forecasts
Actual Forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Leadframes $3,289 $3,013 $2,635 $2,942 $2,997Organic Substrates1 6,656 7,586 6,967 7,674 8,255Ceramic Packages 1,574 1,501 1,290 1,388 1,429Encapsulation Resins 1,624 1,475 1,284 1,464 1,559Bonding Wire3 3,592 3,968 3,838 4,359 4,446Die Attach Materials4 612 588 582 650 682Others5 242 193 179 207 233
Total $17,589 $18,324 $16,775 $18,684 $19,601
% Growth 4.2% -8.5% 11.4% 4.9%
US$ Millions
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription February 2010
16
Semiconductor Packaging Materials Forecast Notes
1. Source is TechSearch International. Includes PBGA, PPGA, LGA, and CSP laminate substrates and flex BGA and CSP substrates
2. Assume gold value of $660/trz for 2007, $872/trz for 2008, $920 for 2009-2011 forecast period
3. Includes die attach film (tape) materials4. Other includes solder balls and wafer level package
dielectrics5. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated6. All forecasts in current dollars
Source: SEMI February 2010
17
Global Silicon Wafer Diameter Trends
Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2009; SEMI
0
5001,000
1,5002,000
2,500
3,0003,500
4,0004,500
5,00019
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
10F
2011
F
Mill
ions
of S
quar
e In
ches
75 mm
100 mm150 mm
125 mm
200 mm
300 mm
Includes polished and epi wafers. Excludes reclaim, non polished, and SOI.
18
Gold Bonding Wire- Clear Transition to Smaller Diameter
% Share of Gold Wire Market by Diameter
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E
>30 micron 25-30 micron <25 micron
Source: SEMI and Techsearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
19
Wire Survey- Current StatusTo what degree is your company
currently using copper wire?
14 14
13
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Not using Some products Majority of products
Num
ber
of C
ompa
nies
FablessIDM
20
Wire Survey-Potential use over the next three years
Plans for Copper over the Next Three Years
3
24
1
4
9
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Are not considering Are considering for some newproducts
Are considering for the majorityof new products
Num
ber o
f Com
pani
es
FablessIDM
21
Wire Survey-Issues and Concerns Remain
Main Issues/Concerns that would Prevent the Use of Copper Wire
1215
3
9 9 7
8
11
4
95
1
20
5
10
15
20
25
30
ProcessYield
In-ServiceReliability
IncrementalProcessCosts
UnprovenHistorical
Performance
CustomerSpecification
Other None
# of
Res
pons
es
FablessIDM
22
Global Bonding Wire Market
Global Bonding Wire Markets
2007 Actual 2008 Actual 2009 Estimate Bonding Wire
Market Revenues
$M Millions
of Meters Revenues
$M Millions
of Meters
Revenues $M
Millions of Meters
Gold Wire 3,552 15,287 3,921 14,422 3,779 13,680 Aluminum Wire 32.0 980 29.5 898 26.0 800 Copper Wire 8.0 272 17.4 476 33.2 885 Total Bonding Wire Market
$3,592.0
16,539
$3,967.9
15,796
$3,838.2
15,365
Source: SEMI and TechSearch International, Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook
23
Materials Forecast By Segment
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
Fab Packaging
Packaging 11.95 12.77 15.54 17.59 18.32 16.78 18.68 19.60Fab 16.86 18.17 21.70 25.08 24.19 17.85 21.02 22.91
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
US$
Bill
ions
Totals may not add due to rounding.
$28.81 $30.94
$42.67 $42.47
$34.63$39.70
$37.25
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription February 2010
$42.51
24
SEMI® Materials Forecast By Market Region
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia 4.55 5.03 6.18 6.79 6.90 5.98 6.68 7.02China 1.28 1.64 2.38 3.31 3.57 3.26 3.82 4.20S.Korea 3.10 3.78 4.88 6.10 5.90 4.69 5.36 5.71Europe 2.80 2.88 3.39 3.68 3.32 2.52 2.89 3.09Taiwan 4.85 5.31 6.74 8.34 7.87 6.77 7.91 8.50Japan 7.61 7.58 8.57 9.19 9.96 7.63 8.63 9.24N. America 4.63 4.72 5.11 5.25 4.99 3.79 4.42 4.75
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009.00 2010F 2011F
US$
Bill
ions
$37.25
$28.82
$42.52
$34.63$30.94
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription February 2010
$42.67 $42.51$39.70
25
Summary• Fab Trends
– Total fab investments could grow by over 80% in 2010– -4% decline in installed capacity in 2009, and forecasting 6% or more
capacity growth in 2010.
• Semiconductor Equipment Market– -46% decline in 2009– Spending could increase 80% or more in 2010
• Semiconductor Materials Market– 18% decline in 2009– 2010 outlook to be in line with overall semiconductor market growth