[SEMI Theater] Trends in the Semiconductor Equipment Materials Markets
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Transcript of [SEMI Theater] Trends in the Semiconductor Equipment Materials Markets
1
Happy Days Are Here Again?
Lara ChamnessSenior Market Analyst
SEMI TheatreJuly 14, 2010
2
Outline of Today’s Talk
• Industry Overview
• Current Trends
• Materials & Equipment Forecasts
• Summary
3
2010 Semiconductor and IC Revenue Forecasts - Initial
Source: SEMI January 2010
14.7%
14.0%
15.0%
13.0%
10.2%
12.2%
22.0%
15.4%
22.4%
10.4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Databeans (Jan 10)
VLSI Research (Dec 09)
IC Insights (Jan 10)
Gartner (Nov 09)
SIA (Nov 09)
WSTS (Jun 09)
Semico Research (Jan 10)
iSuppli (May 10)
Future Horizons (May 10)
Henderson Ventures (Jan 10)
4
2010 Semiconductor and IC Revenue Forecasts - Current
Source: SEMI January 2010 and June 2010Yellow indicates initial forecast, blue is the adjustment up
14.7%
14.0%
15.0%
13.0%
10.2%
12.2%
22.0%
15.4%
22.4%
10.4%
11.0%
12.0%
14.1%
18.2%
16.4%
7.8%
15.2%
8.6%
22.3%
8.3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Databeans (Apr 10)
VLSI Research (May 10)
IC Insights (May 10)
Gartner (Jun 10)
SIA (Jun 10)
WSTS (Jun 10)
Semico Research (May 10)
iSuppli (May 10)
Future Horizons (May 10)
Henderson Ventures (Jun 10) 32.7%
31.0%
27.0%
25.0%
23.0%
27.1%
28.4%
28.6%
29.8%
30.6%
5
Semiconductor Cycles
33 45 49 51 55 6077
102
144132137126150
204
139141166
228256249
318
226
309291
248
213
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$35019
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
10F
2011
F20
12F
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Semiconductor Revenue Annual Growth
Source: SIA/WSTS historical year end reports, SIA June 2010 Forecast
Glo
bal S
emic
ondu
ctor
Rev
enue
US
$B
(bar
gra
ph)
Ann
ual G
row
th %
(lin
e gr
aph)
6
The Worst Downturn Ever?
-46%-41%Equipment
-19%-23%Materials
-9%-32%Chips
09/0801/00Revenues
*In 2008, equipment market was -31%, chips -3%, materials essentially flat
*
*
7
Fact or Perception?
-19%
-46%*
-9%*
09/08
-19%
-63%
-11%
09/07
-41%**Equipment
-23%Materials
-32%Chips
01/00Revenues
It’s not easy to be an equipment supplier to this industry
8
Total Equipment Revenue vs. Total Material Revenue Trends
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
US$
Bill
ions
Equipment $B Materials $B
200 mm ramp
“IrrationalExuberance”
Source: Rose Associates, SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription, May 2010, SEMI/SEAJ
300 mm ramp
9
Current Trends and Statistics
10
IC Unit Shipment Trends
Source: WSTS June 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1Q99
2Q99
3Q99
4Q99
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
IC U
nits
(Blu
e Li
ne)
(Billi
on)
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
ASP (R
ed L
ine)
($/D
evic
e)
ASPs declining
Shipments increasing (long-term trend)
11
Silicon Area Shipment Index
Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group June 2010
Worldwide Wafer Area Shipment Index(Three-month moving average)
507090
110130150170190210230250
Jan-
98M
ay-9
8Se
p-98
Jan-
99M
ay-9
9Se
p-99
Jan-
00M
ay-0
0Se
p-00
Jan-
01M
ay-0
1Se
p-01
Jan-
02M
ay-0
2Se
p-02
Jan-
03M
ay-0
3Se
p-03
Jan-
04M
ay-0
4Se
p-04
Jan-
05M
ay-0
5Se
p-05
Jan-
06M
ay-0
6Se
p-06
Jan-
07M
ay-0
7Se
p-07
Jan-
08M
ay-0
8Se
p-08
Jan-
09M
ay-0
9Se
p-09
Jan-
10M
ay-1
0
12
Other Unit Trends-Leadframes and Semiconductor Units
Unit Trends(3-Month Average)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jan-
04Ja
n-05
Jan-
06Ja
n-07
Jan-
08Ja
n-09
Jan-
10
Mill
ions
of U
nits
Leadframe Semiconductor
• Leadframe Units– 2010 YTD shipments up 146%
compared to same period in 2009
• Semiconductor Units– 2010 YTD shipments up 60%
compared to same period in 2009
Source: SEMI, SIA/WSTS
13
Worldwide Semiconductor (Fab, Test & Assembly) Equipment Trends
Source: SEMI/SEAJ June 2010
Worldwide Billings forSemiconductor Equipment
(based on 3-month averages)
$0.0$0.5$1.0$1.5$2.0$2.5$3.0$3.5$4.0$4.5
Jan-
97A
pr-9
7Ju
l-97
Oct
-97
Jan-
98A
pr-9
8Ju
l-98
Oct
-98
Jan-
99A
pr-9
9Ju
l-99
Oct
-99
Jan-
00A
pr-0
0Ju
l-00
Oct
-00
Jan-
01A
pr-0
1Ju
l-01
Oct
-01
Jan-
02A
pr-0
2Ju
l-02
Oct
-02
Jan-
03A
pr-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct
-03
Jan-
04A
pr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct
-04
Jan-
05A
pr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct
-05
Jan-
06A
pr-0
6Ju
l-06
Oct
-06
Jan-
07A
pr-0
7Ju
l-07
Oct
-07
Jan-
08A
pr-0
8Ju
l-08
Oct
-08
Jan-
09A
pr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct
-09
Jan-
10
US$
Bill
ions
14
Forecasts
15
2010 Americas14%
China8%
Europe & Mideast10%
Japan24%
S. Korea20%
SE Asia5%
Taiwan19%
Capacity Trends:Share of Capacity by Region Since 2000
2000Americas
22%
China2%
Europe & Mideast
15%
Japan34%
S. Korea11%
SE Asia3%
Taiwan13%
2000Regional Capacity
Based on 200mm equivalents.
Source: World Fab Watch and SEMI World Fab Forecast, May 2010
2010Regional Capacity
Growth 2000 to 2010China 993%S. Korea 372%Taiwan 289%SE Asia 273%Japan 79%Americas 68%Europe & Mideast 66%
16
Billion Dollar Club
Source: World Fab Forecast, June 2010
Company 2008 in $M Company 2009 in $M Company2010 in $Mestimated Company
2011 in $Mestimated
Samsung (Semiconductor)
6245 Intel 4500 Samsung (Semiconductor)
9000-10000 Samsung (Semiconductor)
8000-9000
Intel 5200 Samsung (Semiconductor)
3500 Intel 4700-5000 Intel 4800-5100
Toshiba includes Alliance with Sandisk
2600 TSMC 2670 TSMC 4700-5000 TSMC 5000-5500
Hynix 2200 Toshiba includes Alliance with Sandisk
1239 Hynix 2500-3000 Hynix 2800-3100
TSMC 1886 Globalfoundries (with Chartered)
2600-2900 Globalfoundries (with Chartered)
3000-3500
Rexchip (Powerchip/Elpida)
1800 Inotera (Micron/Nanya) 1500-1800 Micron Incl Tech and IM Flash
2000-3000
Sandisk 1600 Toshiba includes Alliance with Sandisk
1500-2000 Toshiba includes Alliance with Sandisk
2000-2500
Elpida alone 1030 UMC 1200-1500 Inotera (Micron/Nanya) 1200-1500
Micron Incl Tech and IM Flash
2345 TI 800-1000 UMC 1600-1800
ST Micro 981 Micron Incl Tech and IM Flash
800-1100 TI 500-800
17
SEMI® 2010 Materials Forecast By Market Region
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia 4.55 5.03 6.18 6.79 6.90 5.98 6.78 7.13China 1.28 1.64 2.38 3.31 3.57 3.26 3.86 4.25S.Korea 3.10 3.78 4.88 6.10 5.90 4.69 5.74 6.16Europe 2.80 2.88 3.39 3.68 3.32 2.52 2.96 3.09Taiwan 4.85 5.31 6.74 8.34 7.87 6.77 8.17 8.8Japan 7.61 7.58 8.57 9.19 9.96 7.63 8.69 9.01N. America 4.63 4.72 5.11 5.25 4.99 3.79 4.29 4.48
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
US$
Bill
ions
$37.25
$28.82
$42.52
$34.63$30.94
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription May 2010
$42.67 $42.92$40.48
18 Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2009; SEMI
Global Silicon Wafer Outlook by Diameter
19
SEMI® 2010 Mid-Year Equipment Forecast By Market Region
Source: SEMI Mid-Year 2010 Semiconductor Consensus Forecast, July 2010
Totals may not add due to rounding
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45
N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China ROW
ROW 3.05 2.61 1.44 3.01 3.80China 2.92 1.89 0.94 2.24 2.64S.Korea 7.35 4.89 2.60 7.49 8.08Europe 2.94 2.45 0.97 1.92 2.10Taiwan 10.65 5.01 4.35 9.18 9.28Japan 9.31 7.04 2.23 4.08 4.70N. America 6.55 5.63 3.39 4.57 4.94
2007 (A) 2008 (A) 2009 (A) 2010 (F) 2011 (F)
US$
Bill
ions
$15.92
$32.50$29.52$35.53
$42.77
20
SEMI® 2010 Mid-Year EquipmentForecast By Segment
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45
Wafer Process Assembly & Pack. Test Other
Other 2.92 2.00 1.11 1.85 1.99Test 5.05 3.45 1.55 3.23 3.44Assembly & Pack. 2.84 2.04 1.41 2.95 2.81Wafer Process 31.95 22.03 11.84 24.46 27.29
2007 (A) 2008 (A) 2009 (A) 2010 (F) 2011 (F)
US$
Bill
ions
$29.52
$15.92
$32.50$35.53
Totals may not add due to rounding
Source: SEMI Mid-Year 2010 Semiconductor Consensus Forecast, July 2010
$42.77
21
Equipment Spending Trends
16%
13%15%
17%
20% 20%
17%
20%
14% 13%
17%
14%12%
16%
12%
24%
17%
13%
17%
7%
11%$139.0$140.7$166.6
$213.0$227.5
$308.7
$204.4
$125.6
$149.4$137.2
$132.0
$144.4$102.0
$77.0$60.0$55.0
$247.7$255.6
$248.6
$226.3
$290.5
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
F20
11F
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
US$
Bill
ions
Equipment Spending % of Semiconductor Revenue
Semiconductor Revenue ($B) WSTS
Source: SEMI 2010 Mid-Year Consensus Forecast and SIA June 2010 Forecast
Line ChartBar Charts
22
Total Equipment Revenue vs. Total Material Revenue Trends
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
F20
11F
US$
Bill
ions
Equipment $B Materials $B
Source: Rose Associates, SEMI/SEAJ, SEMI Mid Year Consensus Forecast, July 2010, SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription, May 2010
23
Summary
• The upturn is here!• Not all segments are created equal• Forecast
– Materials: +17% in 2010, +6% in 2011– Equipment: +104 in 2010, +9% in 2011