[SEMI Theater] When is the Next Polysilicon / Silicon Wafer Shortage?

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by RICHARD WINEGARNER SAGE CONCEPTS SILICON USEAGE IN SEMICONDUCTOR SILICON USEAGE IN SEMICONDUCTOR & PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS & PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS

description

Richard Winegarner, President, Sage Concepts Polysilicon and silicon wafers are key materials for both the semiconductor industries. After being in short supply for three years, polysilicon has once again become plentiful. In 2009 economic forces resulted in drastically lower prices for both solar and semiconductor wafers. Where does the industry go from here? Presented at SEMI Theater at SEMICON WEST on July 13, 2010.

Transcript of [SEMI Theater] When is the Next Polysilicon / Silicon Wafer Shortage?

Page 1: [SEMI Theater] When is the Next Polysilicon / Silicon Wafer Shortage?

byRICHARD WINEGARNER

SAGE CONCEPTS

SILICON USEAGE IN SEMICONDUCTORSILICON USEAGE IN SEMICONDUCTOR

& PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS& PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS

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Sage Concepts Inc. is a producer of silicon reports & custom analysis since 1982.Located in Healdsburg, CA www.sageconceptsonline.com

SILICON INDUSTRY 2010 REPORT24 TH EDITION

POLYSILICON 2010 REPORT6 TH EDITION

In depth reports on the manufacture of polysilicon,silicon ingot, silicon wafers, and semi and PV devices.

SAGE CONCEPTS INTRODUCTIONSAGE CONCEPTS INTRODUCTION

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IN THE EARLY 1960'SSILICON DISPLACED GERMANIUMTO BECOME THE MATERIAL OF CHOICEFOR THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY

TODAY 200 MM AND 300 MM DIAMETER WAFERSDOMINATE THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRYACCOUNTING FOR ALMOST 90% OF THE WAFER AREACOMSUMED

SILICON THE MATERIAL OF CHOICESILICON THE MATERIAL OF CHOICE

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THE LEADING CONSUMERS OFSEMICONDUCTOR WAFERS ARE:

SAMSUNG - SOUTH KOREATOSHIBA - JAPANTSMC - TAIWANHYNIX - SOUTH KOREATEXAS INSTRUMENTS - USAST MICRO - EUROPEMICRON TECHNOLOGY - USAINTEL - USARENESAS - JAPANELPIDA - JAPAN

SEMICONDUCTOR WAFER CONSUMERSSEMICONDUCTOR WAFER CONSUMERS

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ASIA PACIFIC46.2%

EUROPE9.1%

JAPAN28.1%

NORTH AMERICA16.0%

OTHER0.6%

REGION SEMI WAFER CONSUMPTIONREGION SEMI WAFER CONSUMPTION

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SEMI WAFER CONSUMPTION BY DEVICESEMI WAFER CONSUMPTION BY DEVICE

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THE LEADING PRODUCERS OF SEMICONDUCTOR WAFERS ARE:

SHIN ETSU HANDOTAI- JAPANSUMCO - JAPANSILTRONIC - EUROPEMEMC - USALG SILTRON - SOUTH KOREAOTHERS

TOP 3 HAVE ALMOST 90% MARKET SHARE

LEADING SEMI WAFER PRODUCERSLEADING SEMI WAFER PRODUCERS

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BY REGION

ASIA PACIFIC29.7%

EUROPE8.3%

JAPAN50.7%

NORTH AMERICA11.3%

SEMI WAFER PRODUCTIONSEMI WAFER PRODUCTION

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THE LEADING PRODUCERS OF SEMICONDUCTOR POLYSILICON ARE:

HEMLOCK - USATOKUYAMA - JAPANWACKER - EUROPEMITSUBISHI - JAPANREC SILICON - USAMEMC - USAOTC - JAPANOTHERS

TOP 3 HAVE ALMOST 65% MARKET SHARE

SEMI POLYSILICON PRODUCERSSEMI POLYSILICON PRODUCERS

 

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BY REGION

EUROPE16.9%

JAPAN32.2%

NORTH AMERICA51.0%

SEMI POLYSILICON PRODUCTIONSEMI POLYSILICON PRODUCTION

 

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SEMI SILICON FLOWSEMI SILICON FLOW

USA - JAPAN

JAPAN - ASIA

ASIA - JAPAN

POLYSILICON

WAFERS

IC DEVICES

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1985

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PV

PAST WAS DOMINATED BY SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRYAND THE FUTURE WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY

POLYSILICON HISTORYPOLYSILICON HISTORY

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THE LEADING CONSUMERS OFPHOTOVOLTAIC WAFERS ARE:

SUNTECH - CHINASHARP - JAPANYINGLI - CHINAQ-CELLS - GERMANYJA SOLAR - CHINATRINA - CHINASUNPOWER - USAKYOCERA - JAPANMOTECH - TAIWANGINTECH - TAIWAN

PV WAFER CONSUMPTIONPV WAFER CONSUMPTION

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ASIA PACIFIC54.6%

EUROPE19.0%

JAPAN18.4%

NORTH AMERICA2.4%

OTHER5.6%

BY REGION

PV WAFER CONSUMPTIONPV WAFER CONSUMPTION

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THE LEADING PRODUCERS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC WAFERS ARE:

LDK - CHINAGLORY - CHINAREC - NORWAYM SETEK - JAPANGET - TAIWANRENESOLA - CHINALONGI - CHINACRYSTALOX - UK

TOP 3 HAVE ALMOST 30% MARKET SHARE

PV WAFER PRODUCERSPV WAFER PRODUCERS

 

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BY REGION

ASIA PACIFIC40.5%

EUROPE35.5%

JAPAN15.6%

NORTH AMERICA5.8%

OTHER2.6%

PV WAFER PRODUCTIONPV WAFER PRODUCTION

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THE LEADING PRODUCERS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POLYSILICON ARE:

HEMLOCK - USAWACKER - EUROPEOCI - SOUTH KOREAREC SILICON - USAMEMC - USAGCL - CHINATOKUYAMA - JAPANOTHERS

TOP 3 HAVE ALMOST 66% MARKET SHARE

PV POLYSILICON PRODUCERSPV POLYSILICON PRODUCERS

 

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BY REGION

ASIA PACIFIC17.2%

EUROPE27.6%

JAPAN10.3%

NORTH AMERICA44.8%

PV POLYSILICON PRODUCTIONPV POLYSILICON PRODUCTION

 

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PV SILICON FLOWPV SILICON FLOW

USA - EUROPE

ASIA - EUROPE

ASIA - EUROPE

POLYSILICON

WAFERS

CELLS

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

SOLAR SEMI

40,400 51,60066,800

150,000

190,000

240,000

SUPPLY

27,000

115,000

POLYSILICON SUPPLY & DEMANDPOLYSILICON SUPPLY & DEMAND