SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN THEREGINA METROPOLITAN AREA

Prepared for the:

Regina Public LibraryStaff Development Day

November 20, 2015 Doug ElliottSask Trends Monitor

444 19th AvenueRegina, Saskatchewan

S4N 1H1 306-522-5515

sasktrends@sasktel.netwww.sasktrends.ca

OUTLINE

Demographic Trends • Births and Deaths• International Migration• Interprovincial Migration• Intraprovincial Migration

Age Distribution

Diversity • Members of a Visible Minority Group• Aboriginal People• Recent Immigrants• Language

Nov 20, 2015 2

DATA SOURCES AND NOTES

This material was prepared by Doug Elliott from QED Information Systems Inc., a Regina based consulting firm and the publisher of Sask Trends Monitor.

Unless otherwise indicated, these data are from Statistics Canada but the estimates and projections are the responsibility of Sask Trends Monitor.

The data are current as of November 2015. Some figures may be revised in future releases.

All of the statistics refer to residents of the Regina Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) which includes the surrounding “bedroom communities”. In 2011, 92% of the CMA population lived in the city proper.

Nov 20, 2015 3

Regina

Lumsden

Lumsden No. 189

Regina Beach

Edenwold No. 158

Pilot Butte

White City

Balgonie

Sherwood No. 159

Belle PlainePense

Pense No. 160

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

NOTES

There are four interrelated factors that determine the size and competition of the city’s population.

• The natural growth rate is the number of births less the number of deaths.• The direct movement to or from other countries is called, respectively, emigration or

immigration.• The migration to or from other provinces is called interprovincial migration.• The migration to or from other parts of the province is called intraprovincial migration.

These factors affect the age distribution of the population as well as the absolute size and they are related in complex ways. For example, migration tends to occur among young adults which, in turn, affects the number of births. As another example, mortality rates are affected by the extent to which older people move to other provinces when they retire.

Most demographic data are published on a “census year” basis which runs from July 1 to June 30 of the following year.

Nov 20, 2015 5

BIRTHS AND DEATHS (NATURAL GROWTH)

In this figure, the number of births is in blue and the number of deaths in red. The difference between them (i.e. natural growth) is represented by the yellow bars.

There was a decline in the number of births during the late 1990s that was caused by lower fertility rates compounded by a drop in the number of women in the child-bearing age group. Recent increases are the result of a) more young women in the city and b) a slight increase in fertility rates.

The slow but steady increase in the number of deaths is occurring because lower mortality rates are offset by an increasing number of people in older age groups. Out-migration of seniors is also a factor.

Natural growth adds 1,200 to 1,400 persons per year to the population.

Nov 20, 2015 6

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2001-2002

2003-2004

2005-2006

2007-2008

2009-2010

2011-2012

2013-2014

July to June

Natural Growth (Births less Deaths) in Regina CMA, 2001-02 to 2013-2014

Births

Deaths

Natural Increase

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

These counts cover only “landed immigrants” – those who are entitled to live in Canada as long as they wish. Temporary foreign residents are not included.

Immigration has increased exponentially because of the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program (SINP). The number of immigrants is still small, however, compared with other cities.

The number of people who permanently emigrate to other countries is difficult to measure but is thought to be small.

Retention of international immigrants has been a problem in the past. How many of these newer immigrants will stay in Regina is an open question.

Nov 20, 2015 7

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2001-2002

2003-2004

2005-2006

2007-2008

2009-2010

2011-2012

2013-2014

July to June

International Immigration to the Regina CMA,2001-02 to 2013-2014

INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION

The interprovincial migration figures in this graph show the net flow – those who come to the province less those who leave.

In the early 2000s, interprovincial migration was a drain on the city’s population. It is now more or less neutral with the number coming roughly the same as the number leaving.

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(2,500)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

2001-2002

2003-2004

2005-2006

2007-2008

2009-2010

2011-2012

2013-2014

July to June

Net Interprovincial Migration to/from Regina CMA, 2001-02 to 2013-14

INTRAPROVINCIAL MIGRATION

Regina has always been a popular destination for those living in rural Saskatchewan.

Flows from elsewhere in the province have averaged 700 persons per year in the past four years.

Nov 20, 2015 9

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2001-2002

2003-2004

2005-2006

2007-2008

2009-2010

2011-2012

2013-2014

July to June

Net Intraprovincial Migration to/from Regina CMA, 2001-02 to 2013-14

DESTINATIONS FOR INTER/INTRAPROVINCIAL MIGRANTS

The Regina CMA is a net exporter of people to Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon.

Recently, Regina has become a net importer from Toronto.

Nov 20, 2015 10

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

Saskatoon

Calgary

Edmonton

Toronto

Vancouver

Winnipeg

Most Common Cities of Origin/Destinationflows from July 2012 to July 2013

Coming to Regina

Leaving Regina

SUMMARY OF POPULATION CHANGES

The population of the Regina CMA is growing because:

• natural growth has increased;

• international immigration is much higher than in the past; and

• interprovincial migration has stopped being a drain on the population.

Nov 20, 2015 11

(2,000)

(1,000)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Natural Growth International Interprovincial Intraprovincial

Migration

Components of Population Change, Regina CMA

2003-042013-14

TOTAL POPULATION

The net effect of all the population flows was, from the mid-1980s to the mid-2000s, a very slow increase in the city’s population.

The population started to grow more quickly in 2007 and has averaged 2.9% per year in the three years ending in July 2014.

We can expect the population to continue to grow in the short term but probably at a slower pace.

Nov 20, 2015 12

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

as of July:

Total Population, Regina CMA

thousands

average = 2.0%per year

average = 2.9%per year

COMPARISON WITH SASKATOON

Saskatoon is growing even more quickly than Regina.

The average annual increase in the five years from 2009 to 2014 has been 3.2% in Saskatoon compared with 2.6% in Regina.

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150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

as of July:

Comparison of Populations

Saskatoon

thousands

Regina

AGE DISTRIBUTIONS

David Foote in his “Boom, Bust, and Echo” book has famously said that age is 80% of everything.

AGE STRUCTURE OF THE REGINA CMA POPULATION

The “baby boom” generation is now concentrated in their fifties although the oldest are 67 years of age. (There is some debate about the exact starting and stopping ages.)

The peak of the “echo” generation is now among those in their early 20s. The size of the echo generation in Regina is above-average because Aboriginal people and recent immigrants are also concentrated in this age group.

The increase in the number of births noted earlier is mainly the result of the increase in the population of family formation age group, that is, 20 to 34 years of age. These infants will eventually become the “echo” of the “echo” generation.

Nov 20, 2015 15

REGINA CMA POPULATION BY INDIVIDUAL AGE, 2014

Nov 20, 2015 16

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81age as of July 2014

Regina CMA Population by Individual Years of Age, as of July 2014

Baby BoomersBorn 1947 to 1964

Generation Ythe Millenials

Born 1985 to 2004

Bust or Gen XBorn 1965 to 1984

Gen ZBorn

after 2004

COMPARISON WITH PROVINCIAL POPULATION

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0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81age as of July 2014

Comparison of Regina CMA Population and Provincial Population, July 2014

Regina CMA

Saskatchewan

DIVERSITY MEASURES

These data are from the Census (prior to 2011) and the National Household Survey (NHS) which is the name given by Statistics Canada to the voluntary part of the 2011 Census.

There is some concern about the quality of NHS data because of the voluntary nature of the survey.

RESIDENCE FOR RECENT IMMIGRANTS

These figures cover the population in both the cities and in the surrounding bedroom communities (e.g. Lumsden, Martensville).

In 2011, 88.4% of Regina CMA residents were born in Canada. The number of immigrants in general and recent immigrants in particular is higher in the larger urban centres.

These percentages will have increased since 2011.

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12.1%

11.6%

8.4%

7.2%

6.2%

6.0%

4.8%

4.5%

3.4%

7.6%

0% 5% 10% 15%

Saskatoon

Regina

Swift Current

North Battleford

Estevan

Moose Jaw

Prince Albert

Yorkton

Rest ofSaskatchewan

Total

Population Born Outside of Canada by Period of Immigration, Saskatchewan, 2011

2006 or later(including non-permanent residents)

Before 2006

AGE GROUPS FOR IMMIGRANTS IN REGINA CMA, 2011

Immigrants fall into two distinctly different age groups.

Recent immigrants are younger, on average. Almost one-half (47%) are in the 25 to 44 age group. This is the mobile age group and the immigrant nominee program targets younger workers. Another 27% are their children.

Those who immigrated before 2006 are much older. Their age distribution resembles the distribution for those born in Canada.

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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Under 15

15 to 24

25 to 34

35 to 44

45 to 54

55 to 64

65 plus

Age of Immigrants, Regina CMA, 2011

Immigrated 2006 or later Immigrated before 2006Born in Canada

COUNTRY OF ORIGIN FOR RECENT IMMIGRANTS

Among the 8,150 Regina CMA residents who came to Canada after 2006, a third are from the Philippines.

After that, there is a wide variety of countries of birth – 44 in total– with China and India being the most common.

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2,590

695

480

340

325

265

235

225

215

200

185

170

155

135

1,935

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Philippines

India

China

Burma (Myanmar)

Pakistan

Bangladesh

South Korea

Thailand

Uzbekistan

United States

Ukraine

Russian Federation

Nigeria

Viet Nam

All others

Most Common Countries of Birth for Recent Imigrants to the Regina CMA, 2011

RECENT IMMIGRANTS, CHANGES OVER TIME

The number of recent immigrants living in the Regina CMA has increased dramatically in the last ten years.

Nov 20, 2015 22

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1996 2001 2006 2011

Number of Recent Immigrants (in Canada less than five years), Regina CMA

MEMBERS OF A VISIBLE MINORITY GROUP

In the 2011 NHS, respondents were given a list of visible minority groups and asked if they were members. The list included:

• Chinese, South Asian, West Asian, and Southeast Asian;

• Black;• Filipino, Japanese, Korean;• Latin American; and • Arab.

Note that Aboriginal people are not considered as being members of a visible minority group.

Many members of a visible minority group will be recent immigrants.

Members of a visible minority group are much more common in urban centres than in rural Saskatchewan. This is particularly true for Regina and Saskatoon.

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11.2%

10.6%

6.2%

5.0%

4.6%

4.2%

2.9%

2.9%

1.7%

6.3%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Saskatoon

Regina

Swift Current

North Battleford

Moose Jaw

Estevan

Yorkton

Prince Albert

Rest ofSaskatchewan

Total

Members of a Visible Minority Group as Percentage of the Population, Saskatchewan, 2011

CHANGES OVER TIME, MEMBERS OF A VISIBLE MINORITY GROUP

The number of Regina CMA residents who are members of a visible minority group doubled from 2006 to 2011.

Nov 20, 2015 24

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1996 2001 2006 2011

Members of a Visible Minority Group, Regina CMA

ABORIGINAL IDENTITY

The Aboriginal identity population includes “Treaty” or “Registered Indians”, members of a First Nation, and those who self-identify as Aboriginal.

The Aboriginal population is much more common in Prince Albert and North Battleford than in Regina or Saskatoon.

In absolute terms, however, there are more Aboriginal people in the Regina CMA (19,785) than in Prince Albert (15,780).

The “Rest of Saskatchewan” category has a relatively high proportion of people reporting a First Nations identity because it includes Reserves and the Far North.

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38.5%

22.2%

10.0%

9.5%

9.3%

5.0%

4.2%

2.8%

22.2%

15.6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Prince Albert

North Battleford

Yorkton

Regina

Saskatoon

Estevan

Moose Jaw

Swift Current

Rest ofSaskatchewan

Total

Aboriginal Identity Population as Percentage of the Total Population, Saskatchewan, 2011

Métis and Other

First Nations

AGE GROUPS FOR THE ABORIGINAL POPULATION

Aboriginal people in Regina are much younger, on average, than non-Aboriginal residents.

For example, 40% of the First Nations population is under 15 years of age compared with 16% of the non-Aboriginal population.

Looked at another way, 18% of Regina residents under 15 years of age are Aboriginal.

Nov 20, 2015 26

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Under 15

15 to 24

25 to 34

35 to 44

45 to 54

55 to 64

65 plus

Age of Aboriginal Identity Population, Regina CMA, 2011

First Nations Métis & Other Non-Aboriginal

CHANGES IN THE SIZE OF THE ABORIGINAL POPULATION

The Aboriginal population has been growing steadily in the Regina CMA.

As a percentage of the population, Aboriginal people make up 9.5% of Regina CMA residents in 2011 compared with 6.8% in 1996.

Nov 20, 2015 27

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1996 2001 2006 2011

Population with an Aboriginal Identity, Regina CMA

LANGUAGE

There are three language measures in the census/NHS.

A high proportion of Regina residents have a mother tongue other than English but almost everyone can understand English or French.

The mother tongue is the language first learned as a child and still understood. For 14% of Regina residents, their mother tongue is not English.

The home language is the language spoken most often at home - 92% of Regina residents report English.

The knowledge of official languages measures how many individuals can write or carry on a conversation in English or French. More than 99% of Regina residents can understand English.

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14.1%

7.8%

0.8%

0% 4% 8% 12% 16%

Mother tonuge isnot English

(alone)

Home languageis not English

(alone)

Cannotunderstand

English

Selected Language Measures, Regina CMA, 2011

CHANGES IN HOME LANGUAGE, REGINA CMA

The growth in the percentage of the population who speak a language other than English at home has also increased dramatically.

Nov 20, 2015 29

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1996 2001 2006 2011

Population Normally Speaking a Language Other than English at Home, Regina CMA

SUMMARY OF DIVERSITY MEASURES

There is a great deal of overlap among these categories but it is clear that Regina is more diversified than other parts of the province.

This is mainly because of the increase in the number of recent immigrants.

Nov 20, 2015 30

15.6%

3.5%

6.3%

6.5%

14.9%

11.6%

10.6%

7.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Aboriginalidentity

Recent (since2006) immigrant

incl non-permanentresidents

Member of avisible minority

group

Home languageis not English

Selected Diversity Measures, Regina CMA, 2011

Saskatchewan

Regina CMA

TRENDS IN DIVERSITY MEASURES

The Aboriginal population has been growing steadily over time.

The other three groups, among whom there will be a great deal of overlap, show a sharp increase from 2006 to 2011.

All four groups will have increased in size since 2011.

Nov 20, 2015 31

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1996 2001 2006 2011

Trends in Diversity Measures, Regina CMA

recentimmigrants

home languagenot English

aboriginalIdentity

members ofvis min group

SUMMARY

The population of the city is growing more quickly than it has for decades.

The four factors affecting population growth i) interprovincial migration, ii) international migration, iii) natural growth, and iv) intraprovincial migration are all contributing to the population growth.

The population is growing even more quickly in Saskatoon.

Those in the “baby boom” generation are in their 50s and early 60s. The echo generation is in the family formation age group.

Recent immigrants and the Aboriginal population are much younger, on average, than the non-Aboriginal, non-immigrant population.

The population is becoming more diverse with a large and increasing proportion of residents being recent immigrants, members of a visible minority group, or reporting an Aboriginal identity.

Nov 20, 2015 32