Secondary Student Outcomes: A Focus on Early Leavers

Secondary Student Outcomes: A Focus on Early Leavers

Presented by

Kelli PhythianResearch Services, York Region District School Board

October 6, 2010

Overview• Description of graduates and early leavers

after 5 years• Investigation of the factors that predict the

odds of early leaving– Demographic characteristics– School achievement

Research and Assessment Services, 2009

Definitions• Graduates: Students who met the credit, EQAO and

community service requirements for an OSSD, plus those who have been awarded an OSSD according to the graduation table.

• Early Leavers: Students who, at the end of year 5, were not:– graduates (according to the definition above);– transfers (i.e., to another Board, province, or country); – continuers (i.e., returned to YRDSB the following year); or– deceased.


A Profile of Graduates and Leavers• Data are from two Grade 9 cohorts: 2001 and

2002.• Cohorts include students who were registered

in Grade 9 as of November 1, 2001 and 2002. • Students were tracked over 5 years.• Analyses include only those students who had

one of two outcomes over the five year period: graduation or early leaving


Secondary Outcomes


2001 2002 N % N %

Students in grade 9 7,282 7,666At the end of 4 years: Graduates 4,912 67.5 5,423 70.7 Transfers 602 8.3 667 8.7 Deceased 10 0.1 7 0.1 Leavers 537 7.4 504 6.6 Continuers 1,221 16.8 1,065 13.9

Demographic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Gender

Leavers

Female38.1%

Male61.9%

Graduates

Female49.9%

Male50.1%


Demographic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Special Education ID


Graduates

None88.6%

Other0.9%

Behavioural0.4%

MID1.7%

LD8.3%

Leavers

None70.7%

Other3.2%

Behavioural4.5%

MID5.4%

LD16.2%

Demographic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Guardianship

Graduates

Both parents75.5%

Non-parent0.7%

Unknown15.6%

Single parent8.2%

Leavers

Both parents58.6%Single parent

22.9%

Unknown15.1%

Non-parent3.4%


Academic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Credit Accumulation, Years 1 to 3

Graduates

On track82.0%

Below grade expectation to year 3

18.0%

Leavers

On track13.2%

Below grade expectation to year 3

86.8%


8.0

16.1

24.0

30.732.3

6.5

12.8

18.7

23.6 23.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Year of High School

Mea

n N

o. o

f Cre

dits

Graduates Leavers

Academic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Credit Accumulation by Year


3.1

17.8

22.3 22.3

25.5

8.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0 0.5 to 8 8.5 to 16 16.5 to 24 24.5 to 29.5 30 or more

Mean Number of Credits at Exit among Leavers

% o

f Stu

dent

sAcademic Characteristics of Graduates

and Leavers: Credit Accumulation at Exit


4.2

26.7

53.4

15.712.2

43.340.5

4.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Grade 6 EQAO Reading Result

% o

f Stu

dent

s

Graduates Leavers

Academic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Grade 6 EQAO Reading


12.4

18.6

61.2

7.8

26.3

34.738.3

0.70.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Grade 9 EQAO Math Result

% o

f Stu

dent

s

Graduates Leavers

Academic Characteristics of Graduates and Leavers: Grade 9 EQAO Math


Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early

• Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of leaving early based on– Demographic characteristics– Earlier achievement– Controlling for gender


Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early: Special Education ID


0.08

0.45

0.17

0.24 0.26

0.06

0.36

0.120.18 0.19

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

Not Identified(N=11,467)

Behavioural (N=117) Learning Disability(N=1,206)

Mild IntellectualDisability (N=283)

Other Disability(N=158)

Special Education Identification

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

.

Male Female

Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early: Demographic Characteristics: Guardianship


0.08

0.23

0.30

0.100.06

0.16

0.22

0.07

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

Both Parents (N=9,745) Single Parent (N=1,295) Non parent (N=133) Unknown (N=2,058)

Guardians

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

.

Male Female

Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early: Example of Cumulative Risk


0.23

0.73

0.40

0.51 0.54

0.17

0.65

0.31

0.41 0.44

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Not Identified(N=1,223)

Behavioural (N=59) Learning Disability(N=243)

Mild IntellectualDisability (N=64)

Other Disability(N=36)

Special Education Identification

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

.

Male + Single Parent Female + Single Parent

Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early:

Gender and Credit Accumulation


0.39

0.02

0.34

0.02

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

Below expectation On track

Credit Accumulation: Grade 9 to Grade 11

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

. Male Female


Gender and Number of Credits in Grade 9


0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

< 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8+

No. of Credits in Grade 9

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

.

Male Female


Gender and Number of Credits in Grade 10


0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

<5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16+

No. of Credits in Grade 10

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

.

Males Females

Predicting the Probability of Leaving Early: Gender and Grade 6 EQAO Reading Result

0.23

0.15

0.080.03

0.19

0.12

0.060.02

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

Level 1 or Below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Grade 6 EQAO Reading Result

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

. Male Female



Gender and Grade 9 EQAO Math Result0.64

0.14 0.12

0.040.01

0.53

0.09 0.08

0.030.00

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

Missing/exempt Level 1 or Below Level 2 Level 3 Level 4

Grade 9 EQAO Math Result

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

. Male Female



Gender and Applied vs. Academic

0.07

0.24

0.21

0.05

0.180.15

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

Both Academic Both Applied Mixed

Grade 9 English & Math Programs

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

. Male Female



Gender and Grade 9 Report Card, English

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Below 50 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80 and above

Grade 9 English Mark

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

.

Applied Male Applied Female Academic Male Academic Female



Gender and Grade 9 Report Card, Math

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Below 50 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80 and above

Grade 9 Math Mark

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

.

Applied Male Applied Female Academic Male Academic Female



Gender and Grade 9 Attendance, Math

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 >15

No. of Missed Math Classes in Grade 9

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

.

Male Female



Gender and Grade 9 Attendance, English


0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 >15

No. of Missed English Classes in Grade 9

Prob

abili

ty o

f Lea

ving

Ear

ly

.

Male Female

Key Findings• Key predictors of early leaving include

– Credit accumulation in grades 9 and 10– Applied vs. academic program selection in grade 9– Grade 9 English and Math grades– Grade 9 EQAO– Gender– Special education identification

• Risk is cumulative


Secondary Student Outcomes: A Focus on Early Leavers

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