SEB Nordic Seminar 2014 final - Cisionmb.cision.com/Main/10900/9665659/301793.pdf · Dolphin Group...

23
SEB Nordic Seminar – 8 th January 2014, Copenhagen Dolphin Group Company Presentation Wednesday, January 8, 2014 By Atle Jacobsen (CEO)

Transcript of SEB Nordic Seminar 2014 final - Cisionmb.cision.com/Main/10900/9665659/301793.pdf · Dolphin Group...

Page 1: SEB Nordic Seminar 2014 final - Cisionmb.cision.com/Main/10900/9665659/301793.pdf · Dolphin Group Company Presentation Wednesday,January 8, 2014 By Atle Jacobsen (CEO) ... • The

SEB Nordic Seminar – 8th January 2014, Copenhagen

Dolphin Group Company Presentation

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

By Atle Jacobsen (CEO)

Page 2: SEB Nordic Seminar 2014 final - Cisionmb.cision.com/Main/10900/9665659/301793.pdf · Dolphin Group Company Presentation Wednesday,January 8, 2014 By Atle Jacobsen (CEO) ... • The

This presentation includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and

uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. Such forward-looking information and statements are based on current

expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that

are major markets for Dolphin Group ASA (“Dolphin Group” or “Dolphin”) and its subsidiaries. These expectations, estimates and

projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as "expects", "believes", "estimates" or similar

expressions. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others,

economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for the Dolphins businesses,

oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in

currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time. Although Dolphin believes that its

expectations and the information in this Report were based upon reasonable assumptions at the time when they were made, it can

give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in this Report. Dolphin nor any

other company within the Dolphin group is making any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability

or completeness of the information in the Report, and neither Dolphin, any other company within the Dolphin Group nor any of their

directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use of the information in the

Report. Dolphin undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking information or statements in the Report.

There may have been changes in matters which affect Dolphin Group subsequent to the date of this presentation. Neither the issue

nor delivery of this presentation shall under any circumstance create any implication that the information contained herein is correct

as of any time subsequent to the date hereof or that the affairs of Dolphin Group has not since changed, and Dolphin Group does not

intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update or correct any information included in this presentation. The contents of this

presentation are not to be construed as legal, business, investment or tax advice. Each recipient should consult with its own legal,

business, investment and tax adviser as to legal, business, investment and tax advice. This presentation is subject to Norwegian law,

and any dispute arising in respect of this presentation is subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Norwegian courts.

Disclaimer

2

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“Dolphin’s mission in 2014 will be to deliver on our ambitious

business plan and secure strong growth through high-capacity

vessel expansion, focused Multi-Client investments in Norway

and Brazil, and to continue to strengthen our internal G&G

competence within advanced seismic processing and imaging.”

Atle Jacobsen, CEO Dolphin Group ASA

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FULL ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE

PROCESSING SERVICE

In house software development

and R&D

Processing centre in UK

On-board processing on all

vessels

Developed – advanced seismic

broadband solution (SHarp)

GROWING MULTI-CLIENT

DATA LIBRARY

Dolphin Group – Business segments

EXPANDING MODERN FLEET

4

MARINE MULTI-CLIENT PROCESSING

In production

• 3x High-End 3D vessels

• 1x Mid size 3D vessel

• 1x Ice-class 2D vessels

Under construction

• 3x High-End 3D vessels

with delivery in , Q1/Q2

2014 and Q1 2015

*PCIe= Peripheral Component Interconnect express

Library of modern 2D and

3D data

Areas of focus:

• North Sea

• West Africa

• Brazil

USD 93 million already

invested.

16,000 km2 of 3D and

49,000 km of 2D

successfully completed

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• Position Dolphin as a pure play exposure to the seismic market through

contract seismic, Multi-Client and seismic data processing

• Focus on high-end vessels that meet client expectations

Pure play seismic

market exposure

Low cost and high-

end vessel base

Focus on operational

efficiency and

attractive returns

Strong strategic

position

• Long-term TC agreements with vessel owning companies

• Strong relative cash cost efficiency per streamer per day

• High utilisation and OPEX savings due to proven vessel design

• Capitalise on fleet specifications and operational experience

• Healthy balance between contract seismic and Multi-Client

• Generate strong, stable and healthy cash flow

• Fleet expansion represents an opportunity for profitable growth

• Flexible and attractive structure to reach critical mass based on sound

investment decisions

Business Strategy

5

Market share 2014*

Dolphin

9%

*Source: SEB Enskilda CF, companies

Focus on operational efficiency and shareholder value

Build a strong Multi-

Client database

• Create attractive short and long term returns through building a strong

Multi-Client database with industry support

• Initial focus on the North Sea, West Africa and Brazil

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6

«Polar Marquis»

(April 14)

«SuperDuke» (Mar 15)

Sanco Sword (April 14)

Our high-end 3D capacity more than doubles within 15 months

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

98

221

2014 target

<400

Revenues

USD million Revenues

are growing

with an

expanding

fleet

ILLUSTRATIVE

208

(H1+Q3)

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Delivery of current fleet

Q3 ’13

Polar Duke (3D, 12-14 str)

Polar Duchess (3D, 12-14 str) Sanco Swift (3D, 16 str)

� Delivered May 2011 � Delivered April 2012

Artemis Arctic (3D -6/8str)

Artemis Atlantic (2D)

� Delivered May 2011 � Delivered May 2011

Q1 ’12

May ’11Jan ’11

� Delivered July 2013

Sanco Sword (3D, 16 str)

� Delivery April 2014

Vessels to be delivered

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Four high-end 3D seismic vessels to be delivered in 2013-2015 complementing one of the industry’s most modern fle ets

Polar Marquis (3D , 14 str) Super Duke (3D, 22 str)

� Delivery April 2014 � Delivery Mar 2015

Q1 ’14 Q1 ’15

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Geo Atlantic is upgraded to a high-end 3D

vessel and changes name to “Polar

Marquais” at delivery Jan 2014

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

One of the most modern fleets in the seismic industryAge distribution of marine seismic 3D fleet (including newbuild orders)

Median fleet age (including newbuild orders) : 2008

Average fleet age (including newbuild orders) : 2006

Source: SEB Enskilda CF

8

Artemis

Arctic

Polar

Duke

Polar

Duchess

Sanco

Sword

Sanco

Swift

Super

Duke

Geo

Atlantic

201420122011 2013 2015

Decommissioned or downgraded to 2D/source vessel

Pacific

ExplorerWestern

Patriot

Geowave

Commander

Western

PrideGeco

Topaz

Vessels likely to be decommissioned or downgraded 2014E-2015E

Viking II

Atlantic

Explorer

CGG

Symphony

Geo

Barents

Geowave

VoyagerVantage

Geco

Emerald

Marquis delivery

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Market shares (# of practical streamers – 3D fleet)

Dolphin is one of the fastest growing marine 3D seismic vessel

operators and will be the fourth largest player in 2015

Other

CAGR 13E-15E

0.4%

-4.3%

41.4%

0.0%

7.1%

0.6%

-13.3%

26%24%

26%

24%

16%19%

18%22%

12% 11%12%

11%

11% 10% 10% 9%

710

30%

6%

2012

666

32%

12%

2014E

692

26%

10%

2013E

5%

2015E

716

22%

Adjusted for fleet retirement/down grades described on slide #8

• The difficult Q4-Q1 market environment

has accelerated vessel decommission

and downgrades

• Dolphin positioned to be the fourth

largest player by 2015

• The three largest players will control

close to 70% of the global fleet in 2014

• Very favourable competitive landscape

compared to previous cycles.

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Multi-Client Projects - Status & Strategy

• Build on an asset portfolio that over time will enhance

the robustness of our business model

• Areas of focus:

• North Sea

• West Africa

• Brazil

• Joint Venture to diversify the Multi-Client portfolio and

reduce investment risk

• Differentiate Dolphin Multi-Client with Dolphin’s high-

end onboard fast-track SHarp Broadband processing

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11

36

913

21

37 39 4146

61

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Library book value

11

48

29

-4

45

20.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD Sept.

Cash investments vs net Multi-Client sales

Net cash investments Net MC sales

DolphinMulti-Client seismic data assets - BV of USD 61 million

• Attractive Multi-Client library, well

positioned and built on limited cash-

investments

• Healthy balance between historical

total USD 88 million cash invested and

net sales of USD 69 million

• Sales potential of Multi-Client library >

2x

• Dolphin guides 2013 Multi-Client

investments of USD 50-70 million

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Maud Basin SHarp BroadBand 3D

• Covers about 3,300 km2 of mostly open acreage

potentially in the Norwegian 23rd Licensing

Round

• About 1/3 already acquired and in processing

• This high-resolution SHarp BroadBand 3D

survey is designed to tie the recent Wisting

(shallow Jurassic reservoir) discovery with

“estimated reserves of between 60mbbls to

160mbbls of light oil”

• Pre-funding by industry secured after

commencement

• Similar features would be fast to drill and

potentially quick to develop

Multi-Client in the Barent Sea started in October

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Dolphin started first 3D Multi-Client survey in Brazil in November

• Dolphin in partnership with TGS has

begun acquisition of a 5,000 km2 3D

SHarp Broadband survey utilising the

Sanco Swift. Processing is to be completed

by TGS

• This survey is northeast of the Pão de

Açúcar discovery in an area of similar

structural and stratigraphic characteristics

and will be of high interest to the industry

for future bid rounds

• This exciting initial survey represents the

first step in Dolphin’s planned Multi-Client

Brazil campaign

Page 14: SEB Nordic Seminar 2014 final - Cisionmb.cision.com/Main/10900/9665659/301793.pdf · Dolphin Group Company Presentation Wednesday,January 8, 2014 By Atle Jacobsen (CEO) ... • The

Data Processing Strategy

• Full service marine seismic company

• Process Multi-Client data to control quality and timing

• Process & re-process proprietary data

• Capture the full value of all surveys

• Build sufficient capacity for growing fleet

• Purchased Open Geophysical Inc

• Control of our own software for speed and direction of development e.g. PSDM, multi-sensor

• Continue software licensing – an additional source of revenue

• Differentiate from competitors via innovation

• SHarp - AVO friendly broadband

• Differentiate by doing as much as possible onboard

• Fast track products have added value to clients

• Available on all our vessels

• Develop a global presence

• UK and Singapore processing centres already established

Sub-salt PSDM

SHarp broadband

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Dolphin broadband technology - SHarp

• Accepted by the industry

• Proven case histories

• Recognition of AVO and processing advantages

over other broadband techniques

• Close to 50% of all Dolphin surveys acquired by

Dolphin are now SHarp

• Proprietary SHarp 4D test completed

• SHarp deep tow combined with powerful vessels

allowed extended weather window as well as

increase in bandwidth

• Development and testing of a new broadband

source

Calm sea

Rough sea

Page 16: SEB Nordic Seminar 2014 final - Cisionmb.cision.com/Main/10900/9665659/301793.pdf · Dolphin Group Company Presentation Wednesday,January 8, 2014 By Atle Jacobsen (CEO) ... • The

Dolphin going world-wide in 2014

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Houston

OsloBergen

London

Singapore

Dolphin 3D Multi-ClientOffices Dolphin 2D Multi-Client Vessels

Polar Duke

(Contract)

Polar Duchess

(Contract)

Artemis Atlantic

(Contract)

Artemis Arctic

(Contract)

Sanco Swift

(Multi-Client)

Polar Marquis

(under construction)

Sanco Sword

(under construction)

Page 17: SEB Nordic Seminar 2014 final - Cisionmb.cision.com/Main/10900/9665659/301793.pdf · Dolphin Group Company Presentation Wednesday,January 8, 2014 By Atle Jacobsen (CEO) ... • The

Dolphin Group ASA

2014 Outlook and Guidance

“Cautiously Optimistic

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Seismic market expected to grow strongly…

High oil prices continuing to drive demand for marine seismic

spending

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13E

E&

P S

pe

nd

ing

(U

SD

m)

Glo

ba

l se

ism

ic s

pe

nd

ing

(US

Dm

)

Marine seismic market Onshore seismic market E&P spending*

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13E 15E

Oil

pri

ce (

US

D/b

bl)

Glo

ba

l se

ism

ic s

pe

nd

ing

(US

Dm

)

Marine seismic market Onshore seismic market Oil price (brent)

� The historically high correlation between seismic spending and E&P

spending is expected to continue going forward

� SEB Equity Research estimates increase in E&P spending of 7% in

2013 and 4% in 2014

– Marine seismic spending estimated to increase by 11% in 2013 and 4% in 2014

� An average price of USD 109/bbl for 2013, USD 105/bbl in 2014,

and USD 100/bbl in 2015 providing a healthy margin over the

estimated budgeting price of USD 90-100/bbl, and supporting the

positive E&P spending growth projections

Source: SEB Equity Research

*Based on a selection of E&P companies interviewed by SEB and does not reflect total global E&P spending (represents ~~66%)

…fuelled by and oil price well above the budgeting price

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2014 Dolphin vessel schedule (for illustration purposes*)

Schedule comments:

• Total backlog including Multi-Client prefunding of more than USD 200 million as per 1st January

2014; 100% covered in Q1, approximately 90% in Q2 and 40% in Q3 2014

• Very difficult Q4 with late awards and permitting delays, causing low utilisation

• Strong visibility for 2014, expected to improve further due to new and high-capacity vessels in

demand

• Increased global footprint that will reduce seasonal effects

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*Backlog can be moved between vessels or shifted in time and duration

Vessel

Polar Duke Med India North Sea

Polar Duchess Australia

Artemis Arctic Med India North Sea

Artemis Atlantic West Africa North Sea

Sanco Swift South America

Sanco Sword North Sea

Polar Marquis

Idle Tendering Contract Multi-Client Transit

AUG SEPT OCT NOV DECOCT NOV DEC JAN JUNE JULYFEB MAR APR MAY

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2014 Global market outlook

• Q4-Q1 slow down in global demand, were causing lower

utilisation and pressure on rates. Also Multi-Client sales and

pre-funding was negatively effected

• The visibility for high-capacity vessels have significantly

improved during the last part of Q4, driven by awards of high

volume contracts

• Average pricing for the 2014 contract work booked so far, is in

the range 5% higher than the average 2013 pricing

• No indication of added supply beyond known capacity

• Barrier of entry continuing to increase, through increased

complexity, technology and CAPEX requirements

• Q4-Q1 slow down creates waves in the industry that will

make the business more robust long term

• 2014-2015 a new wave of seismic exploration demand

building up in frontier deep-water areas. Typical high

demand areas are Brazil, Barents Sea, Russian Arctic, Canada

and Australia

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2014 Guidance - summary

“Dolphin’s mission in 2014 will be to deliver on our ambitious business plan and secure

strong growth through high capacity vessel expansion, focused Multi-Client

investments in Norway and Brazil, and to continue to strengthen our internal G&G

competence within advanced seismic processing and imaging.”

• Through the introduction of the new high-capacity vessels, Sanco Sword and Polar Marquis

to the market in April, the Dolphin full year revenue is expected to exceed USD 400 million

for 2014.

• The Dolphin Multi-Client investment will primarily be made in prospective areas offshore

Brazil, Norway and UK. Approximately 15-20% of our fleet capacity is expected to be

allocated on Multi-Client projects, representing an investment in the range of USD 60-80

million for 2014

• Dolphin external Processing services are expected to grow more than 50% in 2014

• During 2014, Dolphin will select and prepare for the next generation of multi-sensor

streamer technology, thus extending the broadband advantages of Dolphin's acquisition and

processing technique SHarp

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• New Vessel capacity to be delivered on time and budget

• Sanco Sword (3D, 14-16 str.) expected delivery , early April 2014

• Polar Marquis (3D, 12-14 str.) expected delivery , ultimo April 2014

• Pricing, costs, utilisation

• Expected day-rates of 280-330 USD/day in 2014 for 3D high-end seismic vessels

• Overall revenues expected to exceed USD 400 million for 2014

• Target to improve overall margins in 2014 versus 2013

• Utilisation high-end 3D vessels, 84-90% - no “slow-down” effect assumed for 2014

• Cash Opex high-end 3D vessels of ~120’-135’ USD/day

• All high-end 3D vessels will be permanently accompanied by 1x chase vessel and 1x support/fuel vessel in 2014

• Other external third party costs and revenues, 6-8% of revenues for 3D vessels. In addition individual reimbursable country

specific costs will apply.

• Estimated SG&A costs USD 5.5 – 6.0 million per quarter in 2013

• Multi-Client activities

• MCS 2D, 6-8 vessel months and MCS 3D, 10-12 vessel months

• Total gross MC-investments USD 60-80 million

• Pre-funding targets of 2D > 50% and 3D>70%

• Sales ratio’s 1.8 – 2.4 times MCS investment costs

• Capex

• New seismic equipment investment of total approximately USD 80-85 million for 2014

• Capacity upgrade and maintenance of USD 8-10 million, dependent on clients configuration request

• Processing 2014, USD 3-5 million

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Dolphin – detailed assumptions and guidance for 2014 as per 8 January

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Questions and Answer Session

Question & Answer