Scottish Independence Referendum Poll for Evening Standard
11
1 Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI Scottish Independence Referendum Poll for Evening Standard September 2014
-
Upload
ipsos-mori -
Category
News & Politics
-
view
3.048 -
download
0
description
Ipsos MORI’s final Scottish referendum poll shows the No campaign with a very narrow lead, in line with other polls in recent days. Among those certain to vote, 50% say they will vote No, with 45% saying they will vote Yes and 4% still undecided. Excluding those undecided, 53% of certain voters say they intend to vote No, with 47% to vote Yes. Some 95% of Scots say they are certain to vote today, including 90% of those aged 16-24.Both sides, though, include supporters for whom this is their first time registered to vote: 13% of Yes supporters and 10% of No voters.
Transcript of Scottish Independence Referendum Poll for Evening Standard
1
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Scottish Independence Referendum
Poll for Evening Standard September 2014
2
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Should Scotland be an independent country? Which way are you most inclined to vote?
Voting intention amongst those certain to vote
(excluding don’t know/refused)
Base: All registered and certain to vote (excluding don’t know and refused) (886).
Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
Yes 47% No
53%
All certain to vote (excluding don’t know and refused)
3
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Should Scotland be an independent country? Which way are you most inclined to vote?
Referendum voting intention
Base: All registered to vote (980); all certain to vote (926). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
Yes 44%
No 50%
Don’t know/ refused
6%
All voters
Yes 45%
No 50%
Don’t know/ refused
4%
Certain to vote
4
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Voting intention by gender
Base: All certain to vote (926). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
51%
45%
Yes
Don’t know/refused
No
40%
3%
6%
55%
5
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
47%
50%
4%
Voting intention by age group
Yes
No
Don’t know/refused
53%
46%
70%
25%
5%
31%
63%
6%
16-24 25-34
35-54 55+
Base: All certain to vote (926). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
6
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Regardless of how you intend to vote, what do you think the result will be? Do you think…?
Outcome
Base: All registered to vote (980). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
Yes will win 30%
No will win 46%
Don't know 24%
Outcome
7
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Which of these has been more important in your decision to vote Yes/No – because you are hopeful for the future if the
Yes/No side wins, or because you are fearful for the future if the Yes/No side loses?
Factors behind vote – fear or hope?
All expressing an opinion (923). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
Hopeful 57%
Fearful 38%
Neither 2%
Don't know 3%
Hopeful 80%
Fearful 16%
Neither 2%
Don't know 3%
Hopeful 36%
Fearful 58%
Neither 2%
Don't know 3%
Overall Yes supporters No supporters
8
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Which of these has been more important in your decision to vote Yes/No – because of the practical consequences of
the result, or because of your feelings of national identity?
Factors behind vote – practical consequences or
national identity?
All expressing an opinion (923). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
Practical conseque
nces 74%
National identity
19%
Neither 2%
Don't know 3%
Practical conseque
nces 70%
National identity
24%
Neither 4%
Don't know 2%
Practical conseque
nces 78%
National identity
15%
Neither 2%
Don't know 5%
Overall Yes supporters No supporters
9
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
As far as you know, are you registered to vote in the Scottish independence referendum?
Voter registration
Base: All (991). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+,
September 16th – 17th 2014
Yes 99%
No 1%
Don't know *%
Registered to vote?
Registered before 89%
First time registered
11%
Registered before?
Base: All registered to vote (980). Data collected among 991
Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
10
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Technical details
• This presents the topline results from the final Ipsos MORI
Scottish Referendum poll for the Evening Standard.
• Results are based on a survey of 991 adults aged 16+,
including 980 respondents registered to vote, conducted by
telephone.
• Fieldwork dates: 16th September – 17th September 2014
• Data are weighted by: age, sex, region and working status
using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-
private sector employment using Scottish Government
Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to
computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of
“don’t know” categories
• Results are based on all respondents registered to vote
(980) unless otherwise stated.
11
Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Thank you [email protected] | 0131 240 3269
[email protected] | 020 7347 3260 @IpsosMORIScot
@IpsosMORI
