Scoping Foresight

Dr. Michael Keenan

PREST, University of Manchester, UKMichael.Keenan@man.ac.uk

UNIDO Technology Foresight Course

Prague, October 2003

Outline

• What should you aim to do - why scoping is necessary

• Consideration of the various elements that need to be considered before embarking upon a foresight exercise

Why is scoping necessary?

• To assess current and past arrangements• To review and perhaps pilot foresight options• To assess requirements against capabilities• To establish the need for any new structures or

arrangements that will need to be put in place• To generate a blueprint for the exercise that uses

the most appropriate methods

Scoping is a process that carries its ownbenefits and responsibilities

Further points on scoping

• How is scoping carried out?

• Who is involved?

• When should it be done?

Target Audience

Starting Point

CONDITIONS MODULATORS

Desired Outcomes

Resources – Human,Financial, Time, etc.

Time HorizonPolicy Milieu &Socio-EconomicCulture

Methods

Participation – Nature, Extent& Frequency

Organisation & Management

Coverage

DEGREE OF CHOICE

Formal Products

Policy Intervention

Starting ‘levels’ for Foresight(Not mutually exclusive)

• Territorial: National (most visible), Sub-national (regional, city-region / municipality), Supranational (bilateral, multilateral, International Organisation), Global

• Domain: economic, social, environmental, technology, scientific discipline

• Alternative starting points: – Flows (e.g. rivers, pollutants, people, traffic, goods

and services, etc.); – Networks (e.g. people, organisations, infrastructures,

etc.); – Markets (e.g. goods, services, labour)

Desired Outcomes

• Rationales– What are the problems / challenges?

– How can foresight help?

– Relates to foresight’s ‘theory of action’

Rationales – why Foresight?

• Need to be clear on why Foresight is being embarked upon. This clarity should extend to the formulation of clear (and hopefully) widely shared objectives

• Rationales will vary according to:– The starting point of the exercise

– The expectations of the actors involved

• But remember: Foresight is no panacea and expectations should be realistic (especially first time around!!)

Why Technology Foresight?

• Growing importance of science and technology to economic competitiveness and social / environmental renewal – TF can be used to raise the profile of S&T in dealing with these issues

• Address ‘system failure’ – TF can be used to build and maintain horizontal linkages (networks) between scientists and technologists, business, government, and citizens

• Provide baseline data on current assets and capabilities (and the opportunity for benchmarking) with a view to strategic steering through awareness raising and prioritisation

Desired Outcomes

• Rationales– What are the problems / challenges?

– How can foresight help?

– Relates to foresight’s ‘theory of action’

• Objectives– Refers to higher and specific goals

– Their achievement should be verifiable

Objectives for national Foresight

• Rationales tend to underpin three general sets of objectives:

• Often more locally-specific objectives too• Objectives have tended to be oriented towards

S&T issues, although this is now changing (less techno-oriented at regional)

1) Creation of visions and/or priority-setting

2) Better wired innovation systems

3) Development of a ‘Foresight culture’

Desired Outcomes

• Rationales– What are the problems / challenges?– How can foresight help?– Relates to foresight’s ‘theory of action’

• Objectives– Refers to higher and specific goals– Their achievement should be verifiable

• Expected Outcomes– Outlined in rationales and objectives– How will we know these have been realised?– When can these be expected to materialise?

Target Audience

• Refers to those actors who are expected to act ‘in’ and ‘as a result of’ an exercise

• Their identity is dependent (to a large extent) upon the starting point and desired outcomes of an exercise

• Typically include:– Scientists and technologists (public & private)

– Policy makers

– Business decision makers

– Citizens and societal groups

Who should I get on board?

• This will depend upon:– The scope of your planned activities

– The social, economic and political ‘culture’

Possible Early TargetsSenior public officialsBusiness spokespersonsSenior scientistsOther respected figures from civil societyMinisters and other politiciansProspective sponsors

How to build momentum? (1)

• Often hidden & forgotten in accounts of Foresight - political processes of negotiation & bargaining

• Extent depends upon programme scope (and vice versa) - who needs to be on board?

• Range of rationales employed in forging alliances?

• Often sequential - who should be convinced first?

How to build momentum? (2)

• Importance of Foresight ‘champions’, often individuals - who are the likely candidates?

• Institutional support can also carry some of the burden

• Raising awareness more generally, e.g.– Forums, workshops, conferences and reports

– What role for the media, e.g. newspapers and journals, TV and radio, etc.?

– Role of training?

Policy Milieu

• Are policy and socio-economic practices open to foresight-type activities?

• Policy space and time• Review existing arrangements:

– What activities already exist in this area?– Who are the main players?– What value-added could Foresight provide?– How might Foresight ‘mesh’ with existing policies

and programmes?– Could Foresight ‘threaten’ the continuation of

certain activities in this area? Good/Bad??– Do you anticipate resistance and/or support?

Possible problems & objections

“You can’t predict the future”

Scientific serendipity

Fatalism

Inertia

Institutional competition

Disputes over the scope

Proof of concept

Costs

BroadPhilosophical

PracticalitiesDetails

Resources

• Foresight can be time-consuming and cost-intensive

• How long will the exercise take?– One-off exercise

– Annual activity

– Continuous activity

• How will the exercise be funded?

The importance of sponsorship

• Foresight ‘programmes’ can be large undertakings:– involve numerous tasks– possibly thousands of individuals mobilised

• Costs will vary, depending upon:– The scope and duration of your planned activities– General costs in the territory – UK/Hungary

example

• Commitment of sponsorship a prerequisite• Sponsorship both formal and informal

Formal sponsorship

• Sponsors can provide support for different parts of an exercise

• Governments are common sponsors of national exercise - often a single ministry

• But can be non-governmental sponsors• Prospects for private money to supplant public

funding?• Possibility for sharing of costs?• Possibility for leveraging funds from

international bodies?

Examples of formal sponsorship

Exercise SponsorDelphi Report Austria Federal Ministry of Science

and Transport

Norway 2030 Ministry of Labour and Govt Administration

French Key Technologies 2005 exercise

Ministry of Industry

German FUTUR project Federal Ministry of Education and Research

Dutch Biology Foresight Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences

Portuguese Engenharia e Technologia 2000

Three sponsors from business, science, and engineering

Swedish Teknisk Framsyn Three sponsors from industry and strategic research bodies

Informal sponsorship

• Wider less formal sponsorship is often the ‘life-blood’ of a Foresight exercise, e.g.– Participants’ time is often freely provided by their

employers – BUT notable exceptions

– As part of awareness raising and dissemination of findings, other bodies may produce reports, and host meetings, dinners, workshops, etc.

• Informal sponsorship should be acknowledged and never taken for granted

Resources

Need to be thought

about at every stage

of a Foresight exercise

Finance

Infrastructure

Human Resources

Time

Political

Cultural

Time horizon

• Typically between 5-30 years

• Should be beyond normal planning horizons

• Will be dependent upon things like the issues to be considered, and the needs of strategy and decision making

Examples of time horizon

Time Horizon

National Foresight Exercises

5 Years French Key Technologies

10 Years Netherlands Technology Radar,

Czech Foresight

15 Years Belgium, German FUTUR, Ireland, Spain

20 Years Portugal, Sweden, UK

> 20 Years Delphi Austria, Norway 2030, German Delphi studies

Coverage

• Again, dependent on earlier choices, especially objectives and orientation

• Orientation: Technology, Sector, or Societal (or a mix)?

• Choosing areas to cover• Level of aggregation• Horizontal integration• Rolling exercises

Participation (1)

• Nature – how are actors to be engaged in an exercise? what will they be expected to do?

• Extent – who is to be involved?

• Frequency – when will actors be invited to participate?

Participation (2)

• Simple Rule: involve those who are expected to act in light of the foresight exercise.

• May need to look further than this, e.g. for expertise, creative thinkers . . .

• Typical to involve spokespersons for various groups – but can they ‘speak’ for their groups?

• Paradox of institutional / creative thinking?• Resource constraints important to consider• Gate-keeping?

Frequency

Rea

ch

EXPERTHEARINGS

DISCUSSION FORA(virtual & real)

EXPERT PANELS &WORKING GROUPS

QUESTIONNAIRESCONSULTATIONDOCUMENTS

Seldom

Exclusive(focused)

Extensive(wide)

Frequent

Methods for different styles of Participation

Why are formal methods used?

• Aid visualisation of possible futures

• Systematic and transparent (if used properly)

• Can constitute ‘hybrid fora’ for interaction and communication between various actors

Overview of some common methods(Loveridge, 1996)

Combinations of methods

Expertise

Creativity

InteractionAlignment

Panels ConferencesImpactmatrix

Workshops

La prospective

Sciencefiction

Brainstorming

Scenariowriting

Essays

Delphi

Foresight methods

• Important criteria for choosing methods:– Participation

– Desired Outputs

– Resources (esp. time, money, and expertise)

– Quantitative/Qualitative data requirements

– Time horizon

– Methodological competence (often key factor)

– Suitability for combining with other methods (feeders and triangulation)

– Suitability for visualising the results

Organisation & Management

• Some common organisational forms:– Project team, often using external help

– Steering committee

– Working groups and panels

– Meetings, workshops, conferences

• Who sets up all of these? When and how?• Loose versus tight management? In other words,

centralisation versus distribution?• Monitoring arrangements? Rationale?• The need for contingency plans . . .

Duration (temporal)

Co

vera

ge

(sp

atia

l)

BIG BANGEXERCISE

Short

Narrow

Wide

Long

Organisation and Management (space vs. time)

Features: whole territory / domain covered, with hundreds (and perhaps thousands) engagedAdv: high profile; greater strategic scope in theoryDisadv: difficult to co-ordinate large-scale activities; problem of inter-organisational conflicts and rivalries?

Features: whole territory / domain covered, with hundreds (and perhaps thousands) engagedAdv: high profile; greater strategic scope in theoryDisadv: difficult to co-ordinate large-scale activities; problem of inter-organisational conflicts and rivalries?

Duration (temporal)

Co

vera

ge

(sp

atia

l)

ROLLING EXERCISE

BIG BANGEXERCISE

Short

Narrow

Wide

Long

Organisation and Management (space vs. time)

Features: continuous, moving from area to areaAdv: foresight becomes embedded practice; management is easierDisadv: difficult to obtain strategic overview across areas

Features: continuous, moving from area to areaAdv: foresight becomes embedded practice; management is easierDisadv: difficult to obtain strategic overview across areas

Duration (temporal)

Co

vera

ge

(sp

atia

l)

ROLLING EXERCISE

DEVOLVED EXERCISE

BIG BANGEXERCISE

Short

Narrow

Wide

Long

Organisation and Management (space vs. time)

Features: carried out with relative autonomy in distinct areas (domains, territories, etc.)Adv: focused upon issues of real interest to participants; localised action more likelyDisadv: capture by interest ‘elites’ that use the exercise to lobby for resources; difficult to obtain strategic overview; exacerbation of problems resulting from competing visions?

Features: carried out with relative autonomy in distinct areas (domains, territories, etc.)Adv: focused upon issues of real interest to participants; localised action more likelyDisadv: capture by interest ‘elites’ that use the exercise to lobby for resources; difficult to obtain strategic overview; exacerbation of problems resulting from competing visions?

Duration (temporal)

Co

vera

ge

(sp

atia

l)

ONE-OFF EXERCISE

ROLLING EXERCISE

DEVOLVED EXERCISE

BIG BANGEXERCISE

Short

Narrow

Wide

Long

Organisation and Management (space vs. time)

Features: focused upon single area, often by a single organisation or communityAdv: focused upon issues of real interest to participants; localised action more likelyDisadv: lack of visibility; inability to act strategically on areas that impact on exercise subject but that lie outside of it

Features: focused upon single area, often by a single organisation or communityAdv: focused upon issues of real interest to participants; localised action more likelyDisadv: lack of visibility; inability to act strategically on areas that impact on exercise subject but that lie outside of it

Formal Products (1)

• Tangible and intangible products associated with foresight

• Must often be ‘designed’ with intervention strategy in mind (especially target audience and outcomes desired)

• Different methods produce different products

Formal Products (2)

• Examples of tangible ‘products’ include:– Scenarios and Visions

– Baseline and benchmarking studies

– Critical technology lists

• Products should be attractive and marketed through, for example, reports, conferences, TV and radio, newspapers and journals, school and university curricula, etc.

Process benefits

• But a key output should be the ‘process’ benefits associated with TF, e.g.:– Networking and resultant horizontal linkages

– Commitment to guiding visions

– Adoption of long-term thinking and Foresight practices

• Perhaps the most desirable outcome is a ‘Foresight Culture’.– Difficult to achieve - should be a long-term aim

– Can be facilitated (in part) through training, the production of methodological guides, and ‘demonstrators’ of Foresight’s benefits

Policy Intervention

• Policy space and time• Passive or proactive strategy?• Dependent upon products of an exercise and

the degree of participation• Focused or wide-ranging?• Long-term undertaking?• Resource dependency

Expected Outcomes

• Outcomes is a ‘slippery’ concept– Vary across time and space

• When thinking about implementation, we need to move away from simplistic linear policy models

• Evaluation issue – technocratic and political agendas must be addressed

• Often a neglected topic when planning foresight activities

Some words of caution . . .

• All preceding elements are interdependent, so it is very difficult to isolate simple relations between them

• To exacerbate the challenge, possible choices for many elements are extremely versatile, e.g. scenario methods can be used in many different settings for many different purposes. Therefore, no recipe book is readily available, only guidance

• Resources (in their broadest sense) are the biggest determinant of the scale and scope (both spatial and temporal) of foresight

• Factors that are difficult to account for, e.g. personalities, institutional culture, etc. are often the key difference between success and failure

Summary

• Scoping is a necessary step of a foresight exercise, allowing a project plan to be drafted

• This session has set out a framework with a number of elements that need to be thought about and addressed

• The framework provides a starting point for you to design and organise a foresight exercise

Questions and Comments?

Dr. Michael Keenan

PREST, University of Manchester, UKMichael.Keenan@man.ac.uk

UNIDO Foresight Course

Prague, October 2003