Science for building resilience and adaptation

Kim JochumLilian Alessa

Andrew KliskeyMark Ferrell

Overview

Long-term projects and concepts

Water as a resilience factor

Wildlife as a resilience factor

Integrated coupled social-ecological modeling incorporating agent-based modeling

- Forecasting Environmental Resilience of Arctic Landscapes (FERAL)

Tools for vulnerability assessment by Alaskan communities - AWRVI

Developing explanatory models for community resilience

Technology induced environmental distancing (TIED)

Source: Alessa, Kliskey, Williams. Polar Geography, 2007.

Water as a resilience factor

Wales Alaska, 2008

Developing social science for understanding community response to change …

Perception of change in water resources varies with age cohort

Source: Alessa, Kliskey, Williams & Barton. Global Environmental Change. 2008.

Values toward water vary with age cohort

drinking

washing and cleaning

subsistence uses

travel

recreation

biological

cultural activitiesMost important value of water

18-39 years 40-59 years 60-99 years

Source: Alessa , Kliskey, Williams. Society & Natural Resources. 2010.

Social-Ecological Relationships between Anchorage residents Water Quality and Quantity

ApproachA community’s resilience to change is dependent

on their ability to perceive a change in an environment

Water resources are an important component of the environment, and subject to environmental changes

Answering questions concerning individual’s understanding of social and ecological relationships within the Anchorage watershed

Surveying of the public

Key Results 75.8 % - no change in water quality and quantity

68.9% - no difference in Campbell creek quality and quantity

Women perceive more change in creek water quantities

The higher the education level the greater the ability to perceive change

Chester Creek Waterway Do you see a problem with this waterway?

Some respondents said there were “no issues with Chester Creek”

Wildlife as a resilience factorConfronting bear management in the changing North

Why do Human-Bear Encounters not decrease ?

Worldwide issueWorldwide issue

Management interestManagement interest

lack of knowledge about triggering lack of knowledge about triggering factorsfactors

Additional:Additional:unknown population sizes unknown population sizes hunting licence estimationshunting licence estimations

Sustainable populations?Sustainable populations?

Possible triggering factors• UrbanisationUrbanisation• Human FootprintHuman Footprint• Access to Resources Access to Resources

EconomyPopulationEcosystem

Complex system

(http://fw.ky.gov) http://ursafreedomproject.ning.comwww.humanbearconflict.org @Dima

Research Questions• How are inhabitants perceptions and

awareness towards human-bear encounters?

• How did urbanisation develop in relation to human-bear encounters?

• How did and does the human land-use influence human-bear encounters?

Study areas – Pacific Rim

Sakhalin Island, Sakhalin Island,

Russian Far EastRussian Far East

Alaska, USAAlaska, USA

Remote Sensing -Remote Sensing -supervised classification

of land use change for Yushno and Anchorage

regions over 30 years

Modeling Modeling - - Predicting suitable brown

bear habitat on Sakhalin and in Alaska

brown bear habitat model

Social Science -Social Science -Mixed Methods approach:

semi-structured interviews and structured explanatory survey

geo-referenced human-bear encounters

database & human use of landscapes

people’s perceptions and their change in

perceptions towards brown bears

evaluation of geo-referenced

human-bear encounters in relation to urbanization

Improve resilience and adaptiveness of brown bear management in

Alaska and on Sakhalin

Project Overview

Remote Sensing StageClassification trialsNon-Random

1989 classified image: Blue – water Green – forest Red – urban Yellow - agriculture Light blue – grassland

Interviews:Perceptions and Experiences towards bear

management23 Interviews on Sakhalin and in AlaskaCurrently analyzed

Survey:Human-bear encounters & land-use over 30 years

awaiting IRB approvalOnline and in the fieldMatch existing Governmental and Agency data

Social Science Stage

Acknowledgements

Alaska Alaska

EPSCoREPSCoR

Sakhalin Environment Sakhalin Environment Watch (SEW)Watch (SEW)

Institute of Institute of Marine Marine Geology & Geology & Geophysics, Geophysics, Yushno Yushno Sakhalin Sakhalin

Pacific Pacific Institute of Institute of Geography, Geography, VladivostokVladivostok

SILVIS lab, SILVIS lab, University of University of Wisconsin Wisconsin Madison Madison

The Research The Research Council of NorwayCouncil of Norway