SCIENCE DIPLOMACY THE ARCTIC CASE-STUDY - Tufts University
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Nation State ~30% International Spaces ~70% PROF . P AUL ARTHUR BERKMAN Director, Science Diplomacy Center Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University [email protected] National Interests Common Interests SCIENCE DIPLOMACY THE ARCTIC CASE-STUDY
Transcript of SCIENCE DIPLOMACY THE ARCTIC CASE-STUDY - Tufts University
NationState~30%
International Spaces~70%
PROF. PAUL ARTHUR BERKMANDirector, Science Diplomacy Center
Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts [email protected]
National Interests Common Interests
SCIENCE DIPLOMACYTHE ARCTIC CASE-STUDY
Globally-Interconnected Civilization
Urgencies exists simultaneously across security time scales (mitigatingrisks of political, economic, societal and environmental instabilities) andsustainability times scales (balancing societal, economic andenvironmental elements across generations) that must be addressed bynations and peoples individually and collectively.
THEORY OF INFORMED DECISION-MAKING
Proposition: Informed Decisions Operate Across a ‘Continuum of Urgencies’
SCIENCE is the ‘study of change’ – symbolized by the Greek letter delta (Δ).
Contributing to Informed Decision-Making
Natural Sciences
Indigenous Knowledge
Social Sciences
BUILDIN
G C
OMMON INTE
RES
TS
International, Interdisciplinary and Inclusive (Holistic)
DECISION-SUPPORT PROCESS SUSTAINABILITY[Stability, Balance and Resilience]
Environmental Protection, Economic Prosperity and
Societal Well-being
Urgencies Today and Across Generations
National Interests and Common Interests
Promoting Cooperation and Preventing Conflict
The Arctic Ocean System
HOLISTIC
NATURAL SOCIAL
NationStates~30%
International Spaces~70%
National Interests Common Interests
Prof. Paul Arthur BerkmanProfessor of Practice in Science Diplomacy
Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts [email protected]
Questions: Impacts from Loss of Arctic Sea Ice
Data: Oldest Continuous Record of Arctic Marine Shipping
AUTOMATIC IDENTIFICATION SYSTEM (AIS) RECORDS FROMPOLAR ORBITING SATELLITES
(1 SEPTEMBER 2009 – 31 DECEMBER 2016)Synoptic – Pan-Arctic – Independent of Jurisdictions
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Data: Satellite History of Pan-Arctic Ship Traffic
Data: Arctic Marine Shipping and Sea Ice
Evidence: Understanding Institutional Boundaries
Evidence: Integrating Data with Decision-Making
Nation State International Space
United Nations Convention on the Law of the SeaSigned: Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December 1982
Entered into Force: 16 November 1994Ratification, Accession or Succession: 155+ Nations
National Interests Common Interests
Internal Waters
TABLE 1: NEXT GENERATION ARCTIC MARINE SHIPPING ASSESSMENTS
ATTRIBUTE ARCTIC MARINE SHIPPING ASSESSMENTSAMSA (2009) Next Generation1
Sampling Period 2004 2009-present
Data Sources Each of the Eight (8) Arctic States Individually
Diverse Government and Commercial Automatic Identification System (AIS) Sources
Observation Coverage Regional Point, Regional and Pan-Arctic
Observation Scope Ground-Based Ground-Based and Satellite
Observation Frequency Inconsistent over Space and Time Synoptic and Continuous
Ship-Type Designations Variable National Designations Standardized International
Individual Ship Metadata N/A Maritime Mobile Service Identity (MMSI)
Contributions Recommendations and Scenarios Options based on Spatial-Temporal Evidence
Decision-Support Governance Mechanisms Built Infrastructure, Operations and Governance Mechanisms
1 Includes benchmark Automatic Identification System (AIS) analyses from August 2009-December 2016 using polar-orbitingsatellite AIS data provided by SpaceQuest Ltd from north of the Arctic Circle and analyzed by the Woods Hole Research Center.
Options: Ongoing Iteration of Questions-Data-Evidence
Options: Pan-Arctic Governance Mechanisms
Balanced multi-lateral insulation from instabilities
Options: Pan-Arctic Built Infrastructure
Nation State International Space
United Nations Convention on the Law of the SeaSigned: Montego Bay, Jamaica, 10 December 1982
Entered into Force: 16 November 1994Ratification, Accession or Succession: 155+ Nations
Water ColumnCommon Interests
Berkman and Young 2009. Science 324:339-340.
Options: Balancing National and Common Interests
Sea Floor National Interests
Center of Gravity
Informed Decisions: Pan-Arctic Sustainability
2007‐2008
Science 3 November 2017 • Vol 358 Issue 6363
Holistic Integration – Skill Training
For the Benefit of all on Earth Across Generations
SCIENCE DIPLOMACY CENTERFletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
www.scidiplo.org / @FletcherSciDip
PROF. PAUL ARTHUR BERKMAN – [email protected]
INCLUSIVE
