Science Advice in Situations of Crisis

Science Advice to Governments, Auckland, 28-29 August 2014

Science advice in situations of crisis

Professor Anne Glover CBE

Chief Scientific Adviser to the President of the European Commission


Eyjafjallajökull eruption Iceland, April 2010


Volcanic ash under the microscope

Image credit: University of Alaska / US Geological Survey


Modern jet engine

Image credit: inventors.about.com


Melted volcanic ash clogging the vanes needed for cooling the engine


Abrasion caused by ash in jet engines


Atmospheric modelling of JRC


The closure of European airspace caused significant economic damage


Lessons learned • Gathering the scientific evidence was not easy because of the

many disciplines involved (geology, atmospheric physics, engineering, economics….)

• Modelling is important, but cannot replace in situ observations (e.g. using LIDAR, research planes), in order to deliver convincing arguments

• There were different interpretations of what are "safe ash concentrations to fly" – ICAO delivered guidelines only in 2012

• Politics applied the precautionary principle in the absence of sufficiently reliable information

• Due to the fragmentation of European airspace it was very difficult to have a coordinated response

• Having clear-cut communication channels (e.g. via a CSA) was essential

• The event raised awareness for societal vulnerabilities


Notifying authority

Name: Iceland

Institution: Directorate of Health (Iceland)

Event information

Posted on: 18/08/2014

Message

Type:

Threat of environmental origin

Message

Content:

Alert notification (article 9 a,b,c)

Notification

Criteria:

it grows rapidly or may grow rapidly in scale and

it affects or may affect more than one Member State

Mail Sent

to:

European Commission, Public Health Authorities and ECDC

MESSAGE:

Ever increasing earthquake activity in Northern Vatnajökull

glacier the last 48 hours indicate a high possibility for a volcanic

activity.

The outcome could be disastrous if the eruption is under the

glacier causing flooding and an ash cloud interfering with

international air traffic. If the eruption is outside the glacier

consequences may of a lesser scale.

The development can be followed at this link from the Icelandic

Met Office: http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/2938

Are we prepared?

Icelandic Met Office, 23/08/2014

http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/2938




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Science Advice in Situations of Crisis

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