School dropouts: A framework for public policy analysis Joshua Hawley, The Ohio State University.
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Transcript of School dropouts: A framework for public policy analysis Joshua Hawley, The Ohio State University.
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School dropouts: A framework for public policy analysis
Joshua Hawley, The Ohio State University
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What do we mean by dropouts?
• There are several useful definitions that can help…– 1) the broadest measure of dropouts are any student
who has not finished a degree by the time the rest of the class has finished (four or five years)
– 2) narrower version, any student who has not finished a degree at the school they started
– 3) narrowest version, any student who does not finish some intermediate measure (first year of school)
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Why should we care?
• Students that quit school all together or never finish have used resources of the state, therefore if they leave your school has lost money/talent/future productivity.
• Dropouts can be damaging to students, leading to attenuated college completion, low employment outcomes, and even suicide.
• Dropouts are like the “canary in the coal mine” they tell us something is wrong with our product.
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Other ways of thinking
• In a sense there are two hypotheses about dropouts.
• 1) College is a “cooling out” period for students, and drop out isn’t really bad for college. It just helps student clarify “choice” of career.
• 2) College is an important social and econ. Investment, and like any investment, you want “high returns” with “high quality”
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My way of thinking
• I am of course on the side of the view that this is an investment and that we should strive to maximize the positive benefits of these investments…
• Moreover, I feel that looking at dropout rates enables departments/majors to focus on comparing best practices that lead to some gaining high outcomes.
• In other words, we can learn from each other about institutional good performance.
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What is the U.S. graduation rate?Sector Graduated in 4 Years Graduated in 5 or 6 Years Total in 6 Years
Flagships (most selective) 65% 21% 86%
Flagships (mid level of selectivity)
52% 28% 80%
Flagships (less selective) 33% 33% 66%
State systems (more selective)
54% 23% 77%
State systems (less selective)
26% 25% 51%
This table comes from the recent book by William Bowen, et. Al, Completing College: Finishing College at America’s Public Universities (Princeton UP, 2009)
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Modeling Dropouts
• Typical model for predicting dropouts is based on two methods:– Simple percentages (comparing the numbers that
have finished vs. those that started, at some given point in time)
– Multivariate methods• Logistic regression models looking at the “likelihood of
completing”• Event history models looking a the survival rates to
graduation using longitudinal data.• Propensity score matching, using matched sample to
compare performance.
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Questions Asked• What was the retention and (conversely dropout)
of students through higher education after six years?
• How did the retention (dropout) differ by age at which students started school?
• What differences were there in student achievement of intermediate measures (first year and second year)?
• How did the achievement of intermediate measures vary by age at which students start school?
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Details about Ohio’s higher education system
• Ohio is a large U.S. State (7th largest in terms of population) about 11.5 million people overall
• Ohio’s Higher Ed system is managed in Columbus at the Board of Regents.
• There are 13 universities (with 38 add. Branches)• 24 community and technical colleges• About 72,000 degrees/annually; about 500K
enrolled
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Ohio’s University System
Columbus
OSU is a Research One school, the flagship campus
Cleveland
Cincinnati
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Strategic Plan• Interesting directions for the state in higher education– Overall, Ohio is experiencing increases in higher education
enrollments at all levels– But, our 4 year graduation rates are low (about 60%
overall complete in 4 years)• Therefore, to improve we have at least 3 key issues– 1) need to improve “access” of students (i.e. more non
traditional students in pipeline). From 472K to 700K/annually
– 2) need to improve “efficiency” of the system, produce more students with less wastage.
– 3) need to improve “equity” of disadvantaged students (poor, minority, immigrant) in our schools
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Example Study
• Using data on all individuals that entered Ohio community and technical college system (this is our 2 year college system)
• 45,000 entrants in Year 2002-3• Supplement data with test score information
and labor market data
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How do we measure these increases over time?
• Use state level data we compare on key metrics that have been developed by a national group (Achieving the Dream).
• Measure achievement over time• Include all students (including those that
enrolled for just one course) but didn’t get a degree or credential
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Findings: overall44,995 students started in fall of 200340% were over age 24 in 2002
Overall, by 2009, 20% had completed a AA or BA degree; while 4% got a certificate.
There are strong differences in these outcomes due to 1) Age, 2) part time status, and 3) school of attendance.
Final outcomes for schools vary from a low of 16% to a high of 40%. Often school size was a contributing factor, with bigger schools experiencing lower completion rates
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Findings: year 1 outcomesThere is wide variation in achievement of key benchmarks in the first year of enrollment. In this case we examine 3.
1.Enrolled in first and second term2.Passed 80% of attempted hours3.Completed 24 + credit hours by spring of the first year
•60% of people enrolled in both fall and spring of first year (we already lost 40% of the total the first year!!)•Only 24% of students completed at least 24 hours by end of first year•About 2/3 passed 80% of more of the courses attempted
For Ohio, enrolling fulltime makes all the differences
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Findings: year 2 outcomesWe have three year 2 outcomes
1.Enroll in the first and second fall of school2.Completed 24+ hours by end of year 23.Complete 48 + hours by end of year 2
•About 50% of students enrolled in both the first and second fall they started college. •Completion of 24 + hours and 48 + hours depends a lot on age at initial enrollment
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Conclusions
• Dropouts are a major issue for Ohio schools• Older students have particular issues with
school dropout• Starting school as a full time student makes a
difference• Final outcomes depend a lot on initial patterns
of enrolling and completing courses.
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Implications• There are several implications for Russian higher
education institutions– 1) From a global perspective, universities (even
selective ones like HSE) are paying attention to dropout rates.
– 2) For a country with a declining demographic picture, drop outs can be a bigger issue as selectivity decreases when there is more competition for good quality students
– 3) Measuring changes in drop out rates will require institutions level data
– 4) Payoffs can be significant