SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

SCATTER Helsinki Model sprawl analysis

Paavo Moilanen

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Summary

• Methodology• Trends – both population and employment are

sprawling• Public transport policies make population to

deconcentrate and employment to concentrate• Road pricing measures invert this• Land use policies (pricing/regul.) can contribute • Packaging can thus be efficient

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Superzones in the analysis

• Rural• Urban outside the HMA

Helsinki Metropolitan area (HMA)• HMA suburbs• Outer Helsinki Metropolitan

Area• Inner Helsinki Metropolitan

Area• Helsinki centre

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Population and densities in the base forecast

Polpulation and employment:

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

HelCentre

InnerHMA

OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Hou

seho

lds

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

HelCentre

InnerHMA

OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Em

ploy

ees

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Rel

. ch

ange

in H

ouse

hold

s/sq

-km

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Rel

. ch

ange

in E

mpl

oyee

s/sq

-km

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Relative densities vs 1990:

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Speed up current rail services 25%?

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In general (big/radial) rail enhancement contribute to sprawl!

113 H – Decrease current rail travel times 30%

-5000

0

5000

10000

Hou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-10000

-5000

0

5000

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Like reduction of public transport fares512 H – Decrease public transport fares by 20 %

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA Suburb

s

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5000

0

5000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA Suburb

s

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA Suburb

s

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

Relocation from HMA

From suburban areas towards centre and from rural areas to urban

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Planned Metropolitan Area Rail Investments…

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

do not however seem to contribute to sprawl

-5000

0

5000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HM

A

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5000

0

5000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HM

A

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HM

A

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HM

A

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

112 H – HMA plan-public transport rail investments, compare with do-nothing :

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Road pricing is efficient reducing (population) sprawl

411 H – Car operating costs +50%

-10000

-5000

0

5000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA Suburb

s

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5000

0

5000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA Suburb

s

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA Suburb

s

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

Relocation to HMA

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Marginal cost-based pricing412 H – Cordon (peak) pricing

Radial Cordons 1.25 €/passage

Orbital Cordons 2.5 €/passage

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Road pricing is efficient reducing (population) sprawl

412 H – Cordon (peak) pricing

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA Suburb

s

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA Suburb

s

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA Suburb

s

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Land use measures

A-type land-use zones

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Pricing land-use seems (also) very efficient

311 H – Annual tax (development impact fee) in non urban zones + fiscal incentive (tax reduction) in urban zones

-10000

-5000

0

5000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HM

A

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5000

0

5000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HM

A

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HM

A

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HM

A

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

But not always? 331 H – ABC-type land use pricing policy applied to private services

-5000

0

5000

Hou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5000

0

5000

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Policy package 3 – we can get both households and employment contained

813 H = 411 (VOC+50%) + 512 (fares –20%) + 311 (dev.fee) + 331 (LU pricing)

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

Hou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

The effect of package 3 is still small compared to the base trend

813 H = Policy Package 3 vs. base

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

Sprawl from 2000 in the base

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Conclusions

• There are measures that increase sprawl and can reduce it – these are just examples

• Packaging is needed to increase the good effects and even out side-effects of single policies

• The effects of policies are usually small in the end as there are big background ”basetrends” in operation

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Removal of basetrend 1: Transport prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Person cars

Freight

Public transport

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Removal of basetrend 2: Land use plans

0%

50%

100%

Em

p flo

orsp

ace

utilis

atio

n %

HCU%2005

HCU%2010

HCU%2015

HCU%2020

0%

50%

100%

Hou

sing

pla

n ut

ilisat

ion

%

HCU%2005

HCU%2010

HCU%2015

HCU%2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

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Removal of basetrend 3: Congestion

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Spe

ed(k

m/h

)

Free

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

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Combined effect of removing all base trends

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Hel C

entre

Inner

HM

A

Out

er H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth

Urb

anRura

l

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

Hel C

entre

Inner

HM

A

Out

er H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth

Urb

anRura

lHou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTDWhat is left: The growth of population

and economy (mobility) – the megatrend?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

HelCentre

InnerHMA

OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Em

ploy

ees

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

HelCentre

InnerHMA

OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

OthUrban

Rural

Ho

use

ho

lds

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Hou

seho

lds

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Em

ploy

ees

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Sprawl in the base forecast Sprawl without base trends

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Conclusions II

• The combined effects of various base trends create a ”straightjacket” to policies

• What matters in the end is the growth in population and economy (leading to increased mobility and standard of living) that requires ever more space

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Base forecast changes the policy outcome

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

Hel C

entre

Inner

HM

A

Out

er H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth

Urb

anRura

lE

mpl

oyee

s

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

Hel C

entre

Inner

HM

A

Out

er H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth

Urb

anRura

l

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

Hel C

entre

Inner

HM

A

Out

er H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth

Urb

anRura

l

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

Hel C

entre

Inner

HM

A

Out

er H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth

Urb

anRura

l

Em

ploy

men

t

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

HMA Plan without base forecast Plan with base forecast

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Other tests

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Population and densities in the base forecast

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Hou

seho

lds

/ sq

-km

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

0

5000

10000

15000

HelCentre

InnerHMA

OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Em

ploy

ees/

sq-k

m

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Polpulation and employment: Densities:

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

HelCentre

InnerHMA

OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Hou

seho

lds

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

HelCentre

InnerHMA

OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Em

ploy

ees

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

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Future trends in sprawl

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Hou

seho

lds

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Em

ploy

ees

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Sprawl:

-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Rel

. ch

ange

in H

ouse

hold

s/sq

-km

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Hel Centre Inner HMA OuterHMA

HMASuburbs

Oth Urban Rural

Rel

. ch

ange

in E

mpl

oyee

s/sq

-km

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Relative densities vs 1990:

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Other investment tests

• Effect of Road inv. plan in HMA was small

• Effect of PLJ plan overall in HMA was small

• Effect of orbital investments in HMA was small

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Regulation OK (but how done in practise?)

321 H – ABC-type land use regulation policy applied to private services

-5000

0

5000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA Suburb

s

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA Suburb

s

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA Suburb

s

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HMA

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

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A new employment centre?

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A new employment centre in the HMA?

211 H – New Centre in East (Vuosaari)

-5000

0

5000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HM

A

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HM

A

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HM

A

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Hel Cent

re

Inner

HM

A

Outer H

MA

HMA S

uburbs

Oth U

rban

Rural

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

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Policy package 1

811 H = 411 (VOC+50%) + 512 (fares –20%) + 311 (dev.fee)

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

Hou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5000

0

5000

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th D G R esearc hPAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD

Policy package 2

812 H = 411 (VOC+50%) + 512 (fares –20%) + 331 (LU pricing)

-5000

0

5000

10000

Hou

seho

lds

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5000

0

5000

Em

ploy

ees

Diff2005

Diff2010

Diff2015

Diff2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Hou

seho

lds

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

Em

ploy

ees

% 2005

% 2010

% 2015

% 2020