Saudi Economic Chartbook Economic Chartbook - 2n… · In March 2018 SAMA official foreign currency...

Hans-Peter Huber, PhD Chief Investment Officer Riyad Capital 6775 Takhassusi St. – Olaya Riyadh 12331-3712 rccioof�[email protected]

Saudi Economic Chartbook

*This report is Issued by Riyad Capital

Second Quarter 2018

Saudi Economic Chartbook Second Quarter 2018

Page 1

Saudi Economy Rebounding in Q1 2018

Our GDP Tracker model

indicates a rebound of the

Saudi economy in Q1 2018

due to a positive oil sector

contribution.

source: GASTAT, RC

Saudi Economy Rebounding Due to Oil Sector

The Saudi economy rebounded in Q1 2018 based on our GDP tracker model

(see figure below). This is due to the oil sector which positively contributed to

growth. Meanwhile, various indicators of the Non-oil economy point towards

a slowdown in the first quarter.

Official foreign currency reserves at SAMA continued to stabilize above

1800bln SAR in Q1 2018, a process which had already started in Q4 2017 and

which is the result of an improving current account balance and regular

foreign funding by the Saudi government.

Fiscal non-oil revenues in Q1 2018 jumped by 20bln SAR compared to Q1

2017 due to higher tax income resulting form the recent fiscal reform

measures. The fiscal expenditure increase of 30bln SAR can be explained by a

higher government payroll and higher social benefits (citizen account).

Saudi Arabia continued to produce crude oil below 10mbd in Q1 2018. Ex-

ports of crude and refined products, however, picked up in the first quarter by

8% compared to previous year’s average. Meanwhile, oil prices have reached

80USD for Brent quality.

3M SAIBOR rates are again above USD LIBOR rates by mid-May. In the course

of the first quarter, SAIBOR rates had been temporarily outstripped by LIBOR

rates causing SAMA to take adequate measures to counter this negative

interest rate spread.

TASI continued its rally until end of April when some profit taking by foreign

investors kicked in who had poured an unprecedented amount of 11bln SAR

into the Saudi market during the months before.

Real GDP growth Overall economy, quarterly, %yoy

Real GDP growth Tracker Overall economy, monthly, %yoy

Table of Contents:

GDP Data ………………….…………. 2

Monetary and Financial

Indicators ………………………….… 3

Fiscal Balance and

Government Debt…………………. 6

Private Spending and

Foreign Trade …............................... 7

Non-Oil Business Climate

Indicators …………………...……….. 8

Inflation Indicators …………….... 9

Real Estate Market …………..... 10

Oil Market …….………………………12

Foreign Exchange and

Interest Rates …….………...……… 13

Saudi Balance of Payments ..….15

Saudi Equity Market ………...... 16

Facts and Figures

at a Glance …….……………............ 18


Page 2

source: GASTAT source: GASTAT

Real GDP growth Overall economy, quarterly % yoy Real GDP growth Non-oil private sector, quarterly % yoy

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Overall Economy and Institutional Sectors

For the first quarter of this year our GDP Tracker

model indicates a recovery of the overall economy

after negative growth rates throughout 2017. This is

primarily due to a positive growth contribution

from the oil sector where the impact of the OPEC

output cut agreement on oil production is fading in

2018 while the Non-oil economy most probably

witnessed a further growth slowdown in Q1 2018.

source: GASTAT, RC source: GASTAT

Real GDP growth Oil-sector, quarterly % yoy Nominal GDP growth Non-oil private sector, quarterly % yoy

GDP deflator Non-oil private sector % yoy

CPI inflation % yoy

Figure 2:

Nominal and Real GDP Non-Oil Private Sector

Figure 1:

Real GDP Overall Economy and Oil Sector

Figure 3:

Monthly GDP Tracker of Overall Economy

Figure 4: GDP Deflator and CPI Inflation

Real GDP growth Overall economy, quarterly, %yoy

Real GDP growth Tracker Overall economy, monthly, %yoy


Page 3

source: SAMA source: SAMA

Monetary base, % yoy Aggregate M3, % yoy

Monetary Aggregates, Credit and Commercial Banks’ Deposits

The narrow monetary aggregates (monetary base

and M1) witnessed low single-digit growth rates on

a yearly basis while the broad monetary aggregates

M2 and M3 were broadly unchanged, primarily due

to no growth in overall customer deposits. Credit to

the private sector still exhibited negative growth on

a year-on-year basis by March 2018 but marginally

increased in the first three months of the year.

Banks’ claims on private sector, % yoy, l.h.sc.


Banks’ claims on private sector, % mom, r.h.sc.

Aggregate M1, % yoy Aggregate M2, % yoy

Banks’ overall customer deposits, % yoy, l.h. sc.

Banks’ overall customers deposits, % mom, r.h.sc.

Figure 2:

Growth Rate Monetary Aggregates M2 and M3

Figure 1:

Growth Rate Monetary Base and Aggregate M1

Figure 4: Growth of Commercial Banks’ Deposits

Figure 3:

Growth of Credit to the Private Sector


Page 4


Claims on the private sector as % of total bank deposits Claims on the government as % of total bank deposits

Marginally higher loans to the private sector and

most recently a small decline in customer deposits

drove the private sector loan-deposit-ratio to 87.9%

in March. Meanwhile, the government’s local bond

issues during Q1 2018 were entirely absorbed by

the banks which increased their sovereign debt

holdings by 20bln SAR causing the government sec-

tor loan-deposit-ratio to rise close to 20%.


Gross foreign assets as % of total assets Excess liquidity as % of total assets

(Excess liquidity = banks’ current and other deposits at

SAMA + SAMA bills)

Commercial Banks Key Ratios

Net foreign assets as % of total assets

Figure 1:

Private Sector Loan-Deposit-Ratio

Figure 2:

Government Sector Loan-Deposit-Ratio

Figure 3:

Foreign Assets to Total Assets Ratio

Figure 4:

Excess Liquidity to Total Assets Ratio


Page 5

source: SAMA


Total foreign currency reserves at SAMA, in bln SAR, l.h.sc. Total government deposits at SAMA, in bln SAR, l.h.sc.

In March 2018 SAMA official foreign currency re-serves jumped by 27bln SAR which was most likely due to a 6bln USD capital inflow as a result of the increase in the government’s syndicated USD-loan.

In the first quarter 2018 foreign reserves overall declined gradually by 11 bln SAR after an increase of 42bln SAR in Q4 2017. Overall, foreign currency re-serve managed to stabilize above 1800bln SAR.

Total foreign currency reserves at SAMA, in bln SAR Total government deposits at SAMA, in bln SAR

source: SAMA

SAMA Balance Sheet: Key Elements of Assets and Liabilities

Figure 1:

Foreign Currency Reserves at SAMA

Figure 2:

Government Deposits at SAMA

Figure 3:

Foreign Currency Reserves at SAMA - the long Term

Figure 4:

Government Deposits at SAMA – the long Term

Monthly change in foreign currency reserves at SAMA, in

bln SAR, r.h.sc.

Monthly change in total government deposits at SAMA,

in bln SAR, r.h.sc.


Page 6

source: MoF source: MoF

Oil revenues

Non-oil revenues

Employee compensation (salaries & wages)

In Q1 2018 fiscal revenues increased by 22bln SAR

vs. Q1 2017, primarily due to significantly higher tax

revenues (VAT, excise tax). Oil revenues were only

marginally higher but don’t include an Aramco divi-

dend to be paid in Q2 2017. Expenditure picked up

by 20bln, exclusively as a result of a higher payroll

and social benefits (citizen account) while capital

spending was marginally lower than Q1 2017.

source: MoF source: MoF

Net deficit/surplus Outstanding local government debt, in bln SAR

Other current expenditure

Quarterly Fiscal Balance and Outstanding Government Debt

Figure 1:

Quarterly Fiscal Revenues (in bln SAR)

Figure 2:

Quarterl Fiscal Expenditure (in bln SAR)

Figure 3:

Quarterly Fiscal Deficit/Surplus (in bln SAR)

Figure 4:

Outstanding Government Debt (End of Quarter)

Capital expenditure

Outstanding foreign government debt, in bln SAR


Page 7


Point-of-sales transactions, % yoy

3-Months Moving Average, % yoy

ATM withdrawals, % yoy

Point-of-sales transactions as a proxy for private

consumption recovered in March after a sharp drop

in January due to the introduction of the VAT. ATM

transactions also picked up in the course of Q1

2018. Non-oil exports jumped in March 2018 by

36% yoy which could be explained by petrochemical

exports (65% of Non-oil exports) where higher oil

prices translated into higher product prices.


Non-Oil exports, % yoy Imports, % yoy

3-Months Moving Average, % yoy

Private Spending Indicators and Non-Oil Foreign Trade

Figure 1:

Point-of-Sales Transactions

Figure 2:

ATM Transactions

Figure 3:

Growth of Non-Oil Exports

Figure 4:

Growth of Imports

3-Months Moving Average, % yoy 3-Months Moving Average, % yoy


Page 8

source: Markit source: Markit

Emirates NBD PMI Composite

6-Months Moving Average

Emirates NBD PMI Output

Purchasing Manager Indices as a proxy for the busi-

ness climate of the Non-oil economy continued their

notable decline which started in January 2018. In

April the Composite index reached a new 9-year low

at 51.4. This slowdown may be explained by the in-

troduction of the fiscal reform measures in January

2018. The most pronounced decline affected New

Orders where the index dropped below 50 in April.

source: Markit source: Markit

Emirates NBD PMI New Orders

Non-Oil Private Sector Business Climate Indicators

Emirates NBD PMI Output Prices

6-Months Moving Average

6-Months Moving Average 6-Months Moving Average

Figure 1:

Purchasing Manager Index Composite

Figure 2:

Purchasing Manager Index Output

Figure 3:

Purchasing Manager Index New Orders

Figure 4:

Purchasing Manager Index Output Prices


Page 9


CPI inflation, % yoy CPI inflation, % yoy

After a jump in January due to the introduction of

the fiscal reform steps, CPI inflation declined again

below 3% in Spring 2018. This may be explained by

the subdued economic activity which hasn’t generat-

ed any inflationary pressure so far. Food prices are

6% higher yoy due to the introduction of the 5%

VAT while transportation prices have been affected

by the gasoline price increase in January.


CPI inflation, sub-index Transport, % yoy

WPI inflation, % yoy

Consumer and Wholesale Price Inflation

CPI inflation, sub-index Furnishings, household equipment &

maintenance, % yoy

CPI inflation, sub-index Food and beverages, % yoy

CPI inflation, sub-index Housing, water, electricity, gas and

other fuels, % yoy

Figure 1:

Consumer Price Inflation All Items

Figure 2:

Consumer Price and Wholesale Price Inflation

Figure 3:

CPI Inflation Food & Housing

Figure 4:

CPI Inflation Furnishings & Transportation


Page 10

source: MOJ, RC

The sharp increase in real estate transaction activity

in terms of volumes and number of transactions in

Q4 2017 was followed by a corresponding drop in

Q1 2018. It seems highly likely that this cyclical mar-

ket pattern was mainly caused by the introduction

of the VAT in January 2018. In fact, all sales of resi-

dential and commercial properties are subject to

VAT at the standard rate of 5%.

source: MOJ, RC source: MOJ, RC

Total value of quarterly transactions, %yoy

Number of quarterly transactions, %yoy

Real Estate Market: Transaction Activity

Riyadh Region

Makkah Region

Eastern Region

All Other Regions



source: MOJ, RC



Figure 1:

Quarterly Real Estate Transactions Overall Country

Figure 3:

Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Transactions

Figure 4:

Breakdown of Transaction Value by Regions (Q1 2018)

Figure 2:

Quarterly Residential Real Estate Transactions


Page 11


After a period of consolidation in 2017 residential

real estate prices gradually dropped in Q1 2018.

Commercial property prices continued their down-

turn into 2018 which is primarily due to a protract-

ed decline in commercial land prices. In Q1 2018

property prices of commercial centers saw a decline

after a long period of stability, while shops&galleries

continued their price recovery since Q2 2017.


Residential villas price index

Residential price index Residential land price index

Commercial land price index Commercial price index

Real Estate Market: Price Indices

Residential apartments price index

Commercial centers price index

Commercial shops & galleries price index

Figure 1:

Residential and Commercial Price Indices

Figure 2:

Residential and Commercial Land Price Indices

Figure 3:

Residential Villas and Apartments Price Indices

Figure 4:

Commercial Shops and Centers Price Indices


Page 12

source: JODI, Bloomberg source: JODI

Saudi Arabian crude oil production, in 1000 bd.

Saudi Arabian total oil refinery output in 1000 bd.

During Q1 2018 Saudi Arabia continued to produce

crude oil below 10mbd. Meanwhile, exports of crude

and refined products picked up in Q1 2018 to overall

9.1 mbd vs. an average of 8.4 for the full year 2017.

OPEC crude output dropped to 31.5 mbd in March

2018 after a peak of 33.6 mbd in 2016 prior to the

output cut agreement. Brent oil prices reached

80USD in May, a level last seen in autumn 2014.

source: JODI, Bloomberg source: Bloomberg

Brent oil price OPEC crude oil production, in 1000 bd

WTI oil price

Oil Market Statistics: Production, Exports, Refinery and Prices

Saudi Arabian crude oil export, in 1000 bd. Saudi Arabian total oil refinery export, in 1000 bd.

Figure 1:

Saudi Crude Oil Production and Exports

Figure 2:

Saudi Crude Refinery Output and Exports

Figure 3:

OPEC Crude Output

Figure 4:

Oil Prices


Page 13

source: Bloomberg source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan

12-months forward exchange rate USD/SAR

Higher oil prices and a stabilized balance-of-

payment continue to provide strong support to the

USD/SAR peg. As a result, the 12M-FX-forward pre-

mium is trading at levels comparable to the period

of high oil prices 5 years ago. The real and nominal

SAR- exchange rate indices appreciated due to the

recent strength of the USD against major currencies

after a period of extended weakness in 2017.

source: Bloomberg source: Bloomberg, JPMorgan

SAR Real (CPI-adjusted) trade-weighted exchange rate index

SAR Nominal trade-weighted exchange rate index

Foreign Exchange: Forward Rates and Effective Exchange Rate Index

12-months forward exchange rate USD/SAR

SAR Nominal trade-weighted exchange rate index

SAR Real (CPI-adjusted) trade-weighted exchange rate index

Figure 1:

12-Months Forward Exchange Rate SAR/USD

Figure 2:

SAR Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rate

Figure 3:

12-Months Forward Exchange Rate SAR/USD in

the Long Term

Figure 4:

SAR Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rate in the

Long Term


Page 14

source: Bloomberg source: Bloomberg

3-months SIBOR (Saudi Interbank Offered Rate)

5-year Swap rate SAR

In February 2018 3M USD LIBOR exceeded the 3M

SAIBOR rate which caused SAMA to suspend its

term repo facility and unilaterally increase its key

interest rates prior to the FED in March. Meanwhile

SAIBOR rates are again slightly above LIBOR rates.

SAR-USD yield spreads at the longer-end of the

curve also notably narrowed with 5-year Swap rates

exhibiting a small 60 bp difference in May 2018.


30-year maturity Reverse repo rate SAMA

5-year maturity 3-months SAIBOR (Saudi Interbank Offered Rate)

5-year Swap rate USD 3-months US LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)

Interest Rates: Money Market, Capital Market and Central Bank Rates

3-months SAIBOR (Saudi Interbank Offered Rate)

3-months US LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)

Figure 1:

3-Months SAIBOR vs. USD LIBOR

Figure 2:

5-Year Swap Rate SAR vs. USD

Figure 3:

KSA USD-Bonds Yield Spread to US Treasuries

Figure 4:

Central Bank Rate and 3-Months SAIBOR

10-year maturity

SAMA official repo rate


Page 15


Current account balance, quarterly in bln SAR Foreign workers’ remittances, quarterly in bln SAR

(remittances outflow as part of Current account balance)

The balance of payment (net change in foreign re-

serve assets) witnessed a surplus in Q4 2017 for the

first time in three years. This was the result of a pos-

itive current account and financial account balance

with the unexplained part of the balance-of-

payment, the error and omissions, being reasonably

contained. For Q1 2018 we may expect a slight defi-

cit according to monthly SAMA data (see page 5).


Saudi Balance of Payments

Figure 1:

Current Account Balance

Figure 2:

Foreign Workers’ Remittances

Figure 3:

Financial Account Balance

Figure 4:

Contribution to Balance of Payments

Current account balance

Errors & omissions

Financial account balance

Net change in foreign

reserve assets

Financial account balance (excluding changes in foreign

reserve assets), quarterly in bln SAR

(+ capital inflows, - capital outflows)


Page 16

source: Bloomberg source: Tadawul

Tadawul All-share index Average daily trading value for Tadawul, in mln SAR

TASI continued its rally into the second quarter,

reaching 8000 in the month of April. This rally was

accompanied by rising trading volumes. Daily aver-

age traded value achieved almost 5 bln SAR in April

after an average of 3.3bln throughout 2017. In late

April and beginning of May, foreign investors, who

had previously injected a net amount of about 11bln

SAR in 2018 so far, started to take some profits.

source: Tadawul source: Tadawul

Tadawul: Saudi Equity Market Statistics

10-Weeks Moving Average

Retail Mutual funds

High Net Worth Individuals total (HNWI and IPI) Corporates

Government related entities (GRE) Foreign investors total (incl. GCC)

Figure 1:

Tadawul All-Share Index

Figure 2:

Tadawul Total Trading Value

Figure 3:

Weekly Net Purchase by Ownersip (in bln SAR)

Figure 4:

Weekly Net Purchase by Ownersip (in bln SAR)


Page 17


TASI quarterly EPS in SAR, l.h.sc

By the end of April TASI showed a positive perfor-

mance of 15.4% (including dividends) since the be-

ginning of 2017. Q1 earnings for TASI picked up by

34% vs. Q4 2017 but were 7% below the same peri-

od last year. As a result of the recent strong rally,

TASI experienced a PE-multiple expansion at a trail-

ing and forward earnings basis bringing the market

valuation gradually above its long-term average.


PE ratio TASI, 12-months trailing earnings

Long-term average

TASI 4Q trailing EPS in SAR, r.h.sc.

PE ratio TASI, 12-months forward earnings

Long-term average

Tadawul: Saudi Equity Market Statistics

Figure 1:

Performance TASI Sectors April 2018YTD

Figure 2:

Quarterly Earnings TASI

Figure 3:

Valuation TASI: PE-Ratio Trailing

Figure 4:

Valuation TASI: PE-Ratio Forward

Performance in % YTD, including dividends


Page 18

Economic Facts and Figures at a Glance

We expect Saudi economic growth to recover in 2018 by +1.7% after a contraction of -0.7 in 2017. This rebound is the result of a positive contribution by the oil sector, where the output cut 2017 is fad-ing, and a continued recovery of the Non-oil econo-my fuelled by an expansionary budget in 2018. Due to higher than expected oil revenues the budget deficit will shrink distinctly below its budgeted tar-get of 195 bln SAR.

Based on the latest outlook of the IMF, global eco-nomic growth is expected to accelerate to 3.9% in 2018 after 3.8% in 2017. This growth acceleration is expected to be broad based, but primarily driven by emerging economies.

Oil, Inflation and Interest Rates GDP and Fiscal Indicators

Tadawul Equity Market External Balance

Global Economy GDP Growth Rates

source: GASTAT, MOF, RC source: Bloomberg, SAMA, RC

source: SAMA, RC

source: Bloomberg

source: IMF

P/E-ratio = Price/ Earnings-ratio , P/B-ratio = Price / Book-ratio

all ratios on trailing basis except 2017 forecast (consensus forward-ratios)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f

Real GDP Growth

Overall economy 2.7 3.7 4.1 1.7 -0.7 1.7

Non-oil Private sector 7.0 5.4 3.4 0.1 0.7 1.8

Government sector 5.1 3.7 2.7 0.6 1.7 2.0

Oil sector -1.6 2.1 5.3 3.6 -3.0 1.5

Fiscal Balance and Government Debt

Fiscal Balance in bln SAR 180 -71 -362 -311 -238 -165

Fiscal Balance in % GDP 6.4 -2.5 -14.8 -12.9 -9.3 -6.0

Government debt in bln SAR 60 44 142 317 443 558

Government debt as % GDP 2.1 1.6 5.8 13.1 17.3 20.1

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f

Oil Prices and Production (yearly average)

Brent price (USD pb) 108.7 99.5 53.7 44.1 54.8 67.0

WTI price (USD pb) 98.0 92.9 48.8 43.3 50.9 63.0

OPEC Basket price (USD pb) 105.9 96.2 49.5 40.7 52.4 65.0

KSA oil production (mln bd) 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.5 9.9 10.0

Inflation and Interest Rates (year end)

CPI Inflation (yearly average) 3.51 2.24 1.22 2.05 -0.84 3.10

3M SIBOR SAR 0.96 0.86 1.55 2.04 1.90 2.65

Reverse Repo Rate 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.50 2.50

Official Repo Rate 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.75

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f

Trade and Current Account

Trade Balance in bln SAR 835 690 166 209 382 546

Trade Balance in % GDP 29.8 24.3 6.8 8.6 14.9 19.7

Current Account in bln SAR 508 277 -213 -90 57 216

Current Account in % GDP 18.1 9.8 -8.7 -3.7 2.2 7.8

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 04/18

Key Figures (period end)

Total Return in % 30.2 0.7 -14.6 8.2 3.7 15.4

P/E-ratio 16.4 18.2 15.9 17.2 17.0 15.2

P/B-ratio 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8

RoE 12.2 11.5 10.2 9.7 9.5 11.6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f

World 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.8 3.9

Advanced Economies 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.5

USA 1.5 2.4 2.6 1.5 2.3 2.9

Euro Area -0.4 0.8 2.0 1.8 2.3 2.4

Japan 1.6 0.3 1.1 0.9 1.7 1.2

United Kingdom 1.7 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.6

Emerging Market Economies 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.8 4.9

China 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.6

India 6.9 7.2 8.0 7.1 6.7 7.4

Russia 1.3 0.7 -2.8 -0.2 1.5 1.7

Brazil 2.7 0.1 -3.5 -3.5 1.0 2.3


Page 19

Disclaimer

The information in this report was compiled in good faith from various public sources believed to be reliable. Whilst all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated in this report are accurate and that the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are fair and reasonable, Riyad Capital makes no representa-tions or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy of the data and information provided and, in particular, Riyad Capital does not represent that the information in this report is complete or free from any error. This report is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any financial securities. Accordingly, no reliance should be placed on the accuracy, fairness or completeness of the information contained in this report. Riyad Capital accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents, and neither Riyad Capital nor any of its respective directors, officers or employees, shall be in any way responsible for the contents hereof. Riyad Capital or its employees or any of its affiliates may have a financial interest in securities or other assets referred to in this report.

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*This report is Issued by Riyad Capital

Saudi Economic Chartbook Economic Chartbook - 2n… · In March 2018 SAMA official foreign currency...

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