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www.adas.co.uk
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate
in UK agricultureSarah Wynn
[email protected] Clarke & Sarah Cook
Monsanto Weed Workshop “North”13th – 15th June 2011Movenpick - Prague
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
BackgroundProject methodologyMajor uses of glyphosate in the UKMajor implications and value of use
EconomicEnvironmentalSocial
ConclusionsKey issues to address
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Glyphosate in contextImportant in agriculture and amenity
Controls most vegetation growing at the time of applicationWide range of UK crops and grassAmenity and home and garden sectors
Concerns to be addressedFrequently detected in surface water at low levels
Above 0.1µg/l drinking water limitSome residues in grainConcentrations below level of health issuesConcern that restrictions may be put on its use
Monsanto adopting pro-active approach to managing the concerns and ensuring continued availability
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
4
Glyphosate: world’s best-selling herbicide
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Glyphosate
Acetochlor
Metolachlor
Paraquat
2,4-DFenoxapro
pAtra
zine
Pendimeth
alinMeso
trione
Glufosinate
Sulfosa
teIm
azeth
apyrTrif
luralin
DicambaClodinafo
p
Sale
s $M
Source: Phillips McDougall, 2008
• First marketed 1973• No1 selling herbicide since 1980• US Patent expired 2000• Roundup Ready® patents since 1996
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Glyphosate in Europe
Pre-harvestCereals, oilseeds, pulses
Pre-planting or pre-emergenceWide range of crops
Vegetation controlOrchards, vineyards, non-agricultural, amenity
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Herbicide use in UK – area sprayed (ha) and active substance (kg) – arable crops 2008
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Glypho
sate
Isoprot
uron
Triflura
linFluf
enac
et/pen
dimeth
alin
Mecop
rop-P
Fluroxy
pyr
Iodos
ulfuro
n/mes
osulf
uron
Ha tr
eate
d
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Kg a
ctiv
e su
bsta
nce
used
Ha Active substance
Source: Pesticides Usage Survey, 2008
Approval ceased 2008
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Project methodology
Desk based projectLiterature and expert knowledge
Project reports and experimentsData sources and validation
Pesticides Usage Survey 2008Agronomists and farmers workshops
Gross margin calculationsEnvironmental calculations
GHG emissions (CO2e) based on PAS2050
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Main glyphosate use in UKPre-harvest• Perennial weed control• Harvest aid – reducing
moisture
Pre-planting• Annual and perennial weed
control (stale seed bed)• Can reduce need for
cultivation and reduces herbicide within crop
Pre-emergence• Annual weed
control
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Establishing the impacts
Identify key benefitsIdentify alternative approaches
Herbicides: diquat, glufosinate-ammonium, pyraflufen-ethylOther: cultivation, later planting, direct combining
Calculate implications of unavailabilityCostSocial and environmental
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Benefits of pre-harvest useTiming BenefitWeed control Elytrigia repens control: 100 shoots/m2
could cause at least 10% yield reductions 10% in wheat, 15% in OSR, greater in spring crops
Uneven or weedy crops
Dries out green materiallowers harvest moisture (1-2%)
General Increased combine efficiency – increased speed of travelLower harvest cost 3.5L/ha fuel saved
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Benefits pre-planting/pre-emergenceTiming BenefitStale seed beds Controls weeds and volunteer
cropsPre-planting Bare soil prior to planting reduces
pest and disease infectionPre-planting and pre-emergence
Mode of action reduces herbicide resistance pressures
Typical benefit 20% increase in yield
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Value of key benefits of glyphosateUse Key benefits Value
(£/ha treated)
Pre-harvest in winter wheat
Elytrigia repens control to prevent yield loss across a rotation, reduction in drying costs
56
Pre-harvest in oilseed rape
Desiccant and harvest aid, reduced drying and earlier harvest
108
Pre-planting of winter wheat
Reduce grass weeds, such as Alopecurus myosuroides, volunteers and perennial weeds
310
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Assessing impacts at UK scale
Crop areasAverage areas affected by weedsUsage patterns/area treated
Pesticide Usage SurveyAgronomist/farmer workshops
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Wheat and oilseed rape: major UK crops
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Wheat Winterbarley
Springbarley
Oats OSR Peas Beans
000 ha £m value
Source: Defra Statistics 2008, UK
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Area treated with glyphosate in UK 2008Crop Area treated
(spray ha)No of
applications% crop treated
% Pre-harvest
Wheat 651,000 1.16 27 78Winter barley 120,000 1.18 25 77Spring barley 175,000 1.14 26 83Oats 23,000 1.17 19 94
OSR 529,000 1.25 70 96Peas 19,000 1.39 45 87Beans 73,000 1.20 51 41
Source: Pesticides Usage Survey, 2008
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
% area treated, by crop, with glyphosate
Sources: Pesticide Usage Survey 2008 (PUS), Agronomist/Farmer meetings in West & East of England
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Wheat Spring Barley OSR
Pre-planting PUS Pre-harvest PUSPre-planting West Pre-harvest WestPre-planting East Pre-harvest East
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%Wheat Spring Barley OSR
Pre-planting Pre-harvest
Yields reduced without glyphosate
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Estimated % loss of production to UK, by crop, without glyphosate
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Wheat
Winter B
arley
Spring b
arley
Oats OSR
Peas
Beans
Pre-planting Pre-harvest
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Estimated loss £m to UK, all crops, without glyphosate
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0Pre-planting Pre-harvest
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Impact of losses at farm scale
Wheat, wheat, oilseed rape (OSR)On a 100 ha farm£47,300 annual costUnprofitable to grow cropsRotational change
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Impact of loss on food prices
To maintain current farm income levels requires increased price/tonne of:
Wheat 40%Oilseed rape 26%
Increase in price of productsBread 3.6p/loafLivestock feed and meat prices
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Environmental impactsSoils- More cultivation , more erosion, poorer structure
Land use- Limited availability, GHG impacts
Biodiversity+ If more spring cropping- Increased cultivation, Land Use Change (LUC)
Water quality- Alternative herbicides, sediment
Greenhouse gas emissions
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Implications for GHG emissions
Based on PAS20501 methodologyDefault value for LUC (could be underestimate)
Increased fuel useLow yields increase emissions per tonneEstimate increase CO2e of 25-65% for UK wheat production
1Publicly available specification 2050 (PAS2050):2008 – Specification for the assessment of the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of goods and services. Available from www.bsigroup.com/pas2050
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Social impacts
Quality of life for farm workers100% increase in labour/time required for cultivation and harvestReduced harvest flexibility
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Loss of glyphosate would cause....Severe losses to UK agriculture
Greatest loss is pre-planting use£150m - £550m/year for wheat (c. £300/ha treated)£225m - £810m/year for all crops
Additional losses pre-harvest use£72m - £152m/year in wheat (c. £50/ha treated)> £300m in all crops (c. £100/ha OSR treated)
Negative impacts to the environmentCrop area increased by 5-20% (if land available)GHG emissions increased by up to 65%Soil quality, water quality and biodiversity reduced
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate in UK agriculture
Actions required to retain availability of valuable active substance
Need to resolve uncertainty over area treated ifgreater precision of impact is requiredPro-active campaign to:
Remind farmers, agronomists and policymakers of benefitsRemind policymakers levels are below level of health impact
Ensure always used to best practiceProtect watercourses
Avoid point source contamination and driftEnsure any use is always justified
www.adas.co.uk
Agro-economic analysis of the use of glyphosate
in UK agricultureSarah Wynn
[email protected] Clarke & Sarah Cook
Monsanto Weed Workshop “North”13th – 15th June 2011Movenpick - Prague