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Transcript of São Paulo | Rio de Janeiro | Brasília | Curitiba | Porto Alegre | Recife | Belo Horizonte London |...
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São Paulo | Rio de Janeiro | Brasília | Curitiba | Porto Alegre | Recife | Belo Horizonte
London | Lisbon | Beijing | Shanghai | Miami | Buenos Aires
Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr.São Paulo, August 6th, 2010.
NORONHA ADVOGADOSINTERNACIONAL LAWYERS
Current Economic Situation of Brazil and the Sino-Brazilian economic and commercial relations and
its future perspectives
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1. Economic Fundamentals;
2. Foreign Trade;
3. Brazil and China: Market Aspects and Features;
4. Sino-Brazilian Bilateral Cooperation.
IndexIndex
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Economic Growth of China (% change of GDP)
5,05,56,06,57,07,58,08,59,09,5
10,010,511,011,512,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
Source: IMF *Estimate
Economic Fundamentals
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-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,55,05,5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Economic FundamentalsEconomic Growth of Brazil
(GDP – Real Growth Rate) (%)
Source: IBGE *Estimate: Central Bank of Brazil
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• Total GDP: US$ 8.789 trillion (2009)
• GDP per capita: US$ 6.600 (2009)
Economic Fundamentals
GDP GrowthPurchase Power Parity of China
Source: IMF
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Economic Fundamentals
GDP GrowthPurchase Power Parity of Brazil
• Total GDP: US$ 2.025 trillion (2009)
• GDP per capita: US$ 10.200 (2009)
Source: CIA World Book
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
GDP(trillion)
1,60 1,90 2,30 2,60 3,41 3,68
GDP Growth(%)
10 10,1 10,5 11,1 11,5 11,1
Population(billion)
1,298 1,306 1,313 1,321 1,330 1,338
GDP per capita (mil)
1,240 1,473 1,770 1,984 2,583 2,787
US$
Economic FundamentalsGDP x Population
China
Source: IMF
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US$
Economic FundamentalsGDP x Population
Brazil
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
GDP(billion)
663,4 882 1,006 1,300 1,300 1,380
Population(million)
181,5 185,5 186,7 188,9 196,3 198,7
GDP per capita (mil)
3,66 4,77 5,41 6,91 10,300* 10,200*
Source: IBGE * PPP Source: CIA world factbook
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Year Value (US$ Billion)
2001 149,9
2003 149,4
2004 197,8
2005 233,3
2006 252,8
2007 305,6
2008 363
2009 379,8
* 2010 387,77
Economic FundamentalsForeign Debt
China
Source: CIA world factbook * The Global Times
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Year Value (US$ Billion)
2000 200
2001 232
2002 251
2003 222,4
2004 214,9
2005 219,8
2006 188
2007 176,5
2008 229,4
2009 262,9
2010* 225,172
Source: CIA world factbook * Estado de S. Paulo Newspaper
Economic FundamentalsForeign Debt
Brazil
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Year US$ Trillion
2005 0,818
2006 1,066
2007 1,528
2008 1,930
2009 2.399
2010 2.454
Economic FundamentalsInternational Reserves
China
Source: People’s Bank of China * Estimate
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US$ Trillion
Economic FundamentalsInternational Reserves
China
Source: People’s Bank of China * Estimate
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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Year US$ Billion
2005 53,799
2006 85,839
2007 180,334
2008 193,783
2009 238,520
June 2010 253,114
Economic FundamentalsInternational Reserves
Brazil
Source: Central Bank of Brazil and Financial Times * Estimate
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52,935 53,80
85,84
180,33
238,52 253,114
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010
US$ Billion
Economic FundamentalsInternational Reserves
Brazil
Sources: Central Bank of Brazil and Financial Times * Estimate
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1,81,5
6,55,9
-0,7
3,1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010*
Economic FundamentalsEvolution of Inflation
China (%)
Source: IMF * IMF staff estimate
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7,6
5,7
3,14,5
5,9
4,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Economic FundamentalsEvolution of Inflation
Brazil (%)
Source: Central Bank of Brazil
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Year Total
2003 52,7
2004 53,5
2005 64,5
2006 82,4
2007 89,2
US$ Billion
Economic Fundamentals
Chinese Foreign Direct Investments Abroad
Source: People’s Bank of China
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Year Total
2002 4,73
2003 0,46
2004 14,30
2005 10,06
2006 34,09
2007 11,65
*2008 2,54
US$ Billion
Economic FundamentalsBrazilian Foreign Direct Investments Abroad
Source: Central Bank of Brazil * in JAN 2008
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4,7
0,5
14,3
10,1
34,9
11,7
2,5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 *2008
US$ Billion
Economic FundamentalsBrazilian Foreign Direct Investments Abroad
Source: Central Bank of Brazil * in JAN 2008
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Year Total
2002 18,7
2003 12,9
2004 20,2
2005 21,5
2006 22,7
2007 33,7
2008 43,9
2009 30,4
US$ Billion
Economic FundamentalsForeign Direct Investments in Brazil
Source: Central Bank of Brazil *Estimate
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21,0
18,7
12,9
20,221,5
22,7
44,0 33,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 *2008
US$ Billion
Economic FundamentalsForeign Direct Investments in Brazil
Source: Central Bank of Brazil *Estimate
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Economic Fundamentals
Sources: Ministry of Commerce of Popular Republic of China US- China Business Council * FDI statistics explicitly include financial and non-financial FDI
Foreign Direct Investments in China
Year Total
2002 53.51
2003 60.63
2004 60.33
2005 69.47*
2006 82.66*
2008 82.66*
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Economic FundamentalsChinese Direct Investments in Brazil
Source: Central Bank of Brazil
Year Total2003 15,51
2004 4,35
2005 7,56
2006 6,65
2007 24,30
2008 38,42
2009 82,01
US$ Million
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Economic FundamentalsChinese Direct Investments in Brazil
28.1
9.7
15.5
4.4
7.6 6.7
24.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Central Bank of Brazil * Estimate
US$ Million
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Economic FundamentalsUS$ x YUAN
Source: People’s Bank of China
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0.2394
0.2413
0.2401
0.2349
0.2385
0.2468
0.2425
0.24540.2653
0.2739
0.2709
0.29
0.3227
0.3213
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
31/12/2004
31/03/2005
30/12/2005
31/03/2006
29/12/2006
30/03/2007
28/09/2007
31/12/2007
29/01/2008
25/02/2008
05/03/2008
25/03/2008
30/04/2008
07/05/2008
Economic FundamentalsR$ x YUAN
Source: Central Bank of Brazil
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1,671,681,741,681,741,78
1,77
2,042,132,19
2,33
2,662,65
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
Economic FundamentalsR$ x US$
Source: Central Bank of Brazil
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Country Nominal Rate Inflation Real Rate
Turkey 6.5% 7% (0.5)%
Brazil 9.5% 4% 5.5%
Mexico 4.5% 4% (0.5)%
South Africa 6.5% 7% 1.5%
India 5% 11% 9%
Euro Area 1% 1.4% 0.4%
Japan 0,10% -1% 1.1%
China 5,3% -1% 6.3%
USA 0.25% -1% (0,75%)
Russia 8% 12% (4%)
Economic FundamentalsWorld’s Interest Rates
Source: World Bank
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14
86
45 55
13
87
0
20
40
60
80
World Brazil China
Renewable Non-Renewable
Economic FundamentalsSources of Energy
Source: Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy
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• 2005 – 1.85 million barrels a day
• 2006 – Brazil achieves self sufficiency in oil
• 2007 – Discovery of Tupi oilfield with estimated 10 billion of barrels of oil. The
discovery could double the Brazilian reserves. Discovery of Iara oilfield with 5
million barrels of oil.
Economic FundamentalsOil Production in Brazil
• 2008 – Discovery of Carioca oilfield with
estimated 70 billion barrels of oil.
Discovery puts Brazil's oil reserves among
the world's largest 1
• 2010 – 3.4 million barrels a day 2
Sources: (1) Financial Times, July 08, 2008; and (2) Petrobras
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1 Saudi Arabia 264
2 Iran 130
3 Iraq 105
4 Kuwait 100
5 UAE 95
6 Brazil 90
7 Venezuela 80
8 Russia 75
9 Libya 37
10 Kazakhstan 37
11 Nigeria 35
12 USA 27
In Billion of Barrels
Economic FundamentalsEconomic FundamentalsEconomic FundamentalsEconomic FundamentalsWorld´s Oil Reserves
Sources: The Economist and Financial Times
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Source: CIA Factbook
Economic FundamentalsOil Production and Demand in China
Oil in China (2008)
Production 3,79 million bbl /day
Consumption 7,999 million bbl/day
Exports 388,000 bbl/day
Imports 4.393 million bbl/day
Oil proved reserves 15.7 billion bbl
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ProductsPosition between main
exporters% of Total Global
Exports
Orange Juice 1st 81%
Poultry 1st 35%
Sugar 1st 33%
Coffe 1st 30%
Tabacco 1st 27%
Beef 1st 24%
Ethanol 1st 13%
Soya 2nd 32%
Soya Oil 2nd 28%
Pigs 3rd 11%
Cotton 3rd 5%
Economic FundamentalsBrazilian Agribusiness
Source: Icone Brasil
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• GDP of Brazil´s APIB do Agribusiness was US$ 316
billion in 2007, having grown 5,52% in relation to
2006.
• Brazilian Agribusiness represented in 2007 30% of
the country´s total GDP, 37% of jobs and 35% of total
exports.
• In 2007, the balance of trade of the Brazilian
Agribusiness was positive in US$ 50 billion.
Economic Fundamentals
Source: Icone Brasil
Brazilian Agribusiness
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8842 31 44
96
45 276081
328
169116
132
66
188
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Brazil USA Russia EU India China Canada Argentina
Total agricultural area Planted area
394
269
176
220
169138
76 71
In hectares
Economic FundamentalsWorld´s Areas per Expansion of Agriculture
Source: FAO/IBGE
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YearExports
US$ FOBImports
US$ FOBBalance US$ FOB
Current of Trade
US$ FOB
2005 0,76 0,66 0,10 1,42
2006 0,96 0,79 0,17 1,75
2007 1,21 0,95 0,26 2,16
2008 1,435 1,074 0,361 2,509
2009 1,204 0,954 0,259 2,158
US$ Trilion
Foreign TradeTotals China
Source: Ministry of Commerce of People´s Republic of China
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0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Exports Imports Balance Current of Trade
US$ Trillion
Foreign TradeTotals China
Source: Ministry of Commerce of People´s Republic of China
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YearExports
US$ FOBImports
US$ FOBBalcanceUS$ FOB
Current of Trade
US$ FOB
2005 118,52 73,60 44,93 192,12
2006 137,80 91,35 46,45 229,15
2007 160,64 120,62 40,02 281,27
2008 197,9 173,1 24,8 371,00
2009 153,00 127,7 25,30 280,70
US$ Billion
Foreign TradeTotals Brazil
Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry – MDIC
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0
100
200
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Exports Imports Balance Current of Trade
US$ Billion
Foreign TradeTotals Brazil
Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry – MDIC * Estimate
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YearExports
FOBImports
FOBBalance
FOB
Current of TradeFOB
2004 5,44 3,71 1,73 9,15
2005 6,83 5,35 1,48 12,18
2006 8,40 7,99 411 16,39
2007 10,74 12,61 -1,86 23,36
* 2008 15 20 -5 35
US$ Billion
Foreign TradeBrazilian Trade Balance with China
Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry – MDIC * Estimate
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US$ Bilhões
-10500
-5500
-500
4500
9500
14500
19500
24500
2004 2005 2006 2007 * 2008
Exports Imports Balance Current of TradeSource: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry- MDIC * up to Aug /2008
Foreign TradeBrazilian Trade Balance with China
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ProductUS$ FOBJan/Aug
2008
US$ FOBJan/Aug
2007
Var. 08/07%
Part.Aug 2008
%
Soya 4.706 2.184 115,47 39,49
Iron Ore 2.699 1.974 36,68 22,65
Oil Derivatives 983 558 76,03 8,25
Soya Oil 662 151 311,85 5,22
Industrialized Oil 509 430 18,36 4,28
Wood 474 232 103,83 3,98
Foreign Trade
Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry – MDIC * Estimate of Jul /2008
Main Brazilian Exports to China US$ Million
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ProductsUS$ FOB
Jan/Aug 2008
US$ FOBJan/Aug
2007
Var. 08/07%
Part.Jan/Aug2008 %
LCD 619 288 114,59 4,84
Telephone Parts 593 450 31,67 4,63
Coal 408 155 162,34 3,19
Mobile Telephones Terminals
207 67 209,59 1,62
TV Parts 177 91 94,97 1,39
Fertilizers 143 25 467,59 1,12
US$ Million
Foreign TradeMain Chinese Exports to Brazil
Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry – MDIC * Estimate of Jul /2008
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Foreign TradeChinese Current of Trade and its Markets
Source: Ministry of Commerce of People’s Republic of China JUN 2008
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
USA
Germany
Malaysia
Philippines
Tailand
Brazil
Other countries
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Foreign TradeBrazilian Current of Trade and its Markets
Source: MDIC AUG 2008
USA
Argentina
China
Netherlands
Germany
Venezuela
South Africa
Italy
Japan
Mexico
Chile
Other countries
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Foreign TradeChinese Imports by Origin
Source: Ministry of Commerce of People’s Republic of China JUN 2008
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
USA
Germany
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Brazil
Other countries
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Foreign TradeBrazilian Imports by Origin
Source: MDIC AUG 2008
USA
China
Argentina
Germany
Nigeria
Japan
Chile
France
South Korea
Italy
Other countries
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Foreign TradeChinese Current of Trade by Economic Blocs
Source: Ministry of Commerce of People’s Republic of China JUN 2008
EUROPEANUNION
NAFTA
ASEAN
MERCOSUL
SADC
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Foreign TradeBrazilian Current of Trade by Economic Blocs
Source: MDIC AUG 2008
EUROPEANUNION
MERCOSUR
AFRICA
ÁSIA
OTHERS
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US$ billion
Year Exports Var. % Imports Var.% Balance Var.%
2004 39 27,3% 4 1,9% 34 32,1
2005 43 11,8% 5 6,2% 38 12,5%
2006 49 13,4% 6 29,1% 42 11,2%
2007 58 18,4% 8 27,0% 50 17,0%
*2008 70 20,0% 9 15% 60 20,0%
Foreign Trade
* Estimate
Brazilian Trade Balance of Agribusiness
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2004 2005 2006 2007 *2008
Exports Imports Balance
Foreign Trade
* Estimate
Brazilian Trade Balance of Agribusiness
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DestinationExports
(US$ million) Var. % 07/06 (b/a)
TotalExp. (c)
Aggregate Value %
2006 (a) 2007 (b) Basic Semi Manufactured
1.UK 16.153 21.232 31,44 40.357 57,43 14,53 28,04
2. ESA 7.370 6.840 -7,19 25.065 19,55 19,70 60,75
3. China 3.802 4.691 23,38 10.749 67,69 29,23 3,09
4. Russia 3.156 3.402 7,80 3.741 64,37 30,72 4,92
5. Argentina 1.571 1.917 21,97 14.417 11,19 6,31 82,50
6. Japan 1.491 1.768 18,57 4.321 58,42 14,65 26,93
Foreign Trade
Source: Instituto de Economia Aplicada - IEA
Main Destinations of Brazil’s Agricultural Exports
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EUROPEAN UNION
USA
CHINA
RUSSIA
ARGENTINA
JAPAN
Main Destinations of Brazil´s Agricultural Exports
Foreign Trade
Source: Instituto de Economia Aplicada - IEA
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Group
2006 2007Var. 07/06
%US$ 1,000
Participation %
US$ 1,000Participation
%
1. Soya Complex
2.551.168 67,11 3.155.216 67,27 23,68
2. Forest Products
570.647 15,01 578.631 12,34 1,40
3. Beef 378.117 9,95 491.230 10,47 29,91
4. Tabacco 77.611 2,04 271.340 5,78 249,62
5. Fruits 51.013 1,34 66.027 1,41 29,43
Total 3.801.726 100,00 4.690.651 100,0 23,38
Foreign Trade
Source: Instituto de Economia Aplicada - IEA
Main Brazilian Agribusiness Products Exported to China
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2007
Source: Instituto de Economia Aplicada - IEA
Foreign TradeMain Importers of Brazilian Soya (%)
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Some Market AspectsStock Exchange Markets
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Automotive Products (Million of Unit )
Sales of Cosmetic (US$ Billion)
Sales of Computers (Millions of Units)
Sales of Mobiles Phones (Millions of Units)
Chocolate Consumption (Millions of e Ton)
1st Japan 11,596
1st USA50,5
1st USA64
1st China547
1st USA1.600
2nd USA10,781
2nd Japan29,8
2ndChina36
2ndUSA253
2ndGermany1.077
3rd China8,882
3rd Brazil18,2
3rd Japan13
3rd Indian 234
3rd United Kingdom 531
4th Germany6,213
4th France14,1
4th United Kingdom 11,2
4th Russian170
4th Brazil410
5th Brazil4,100
5th Germany13,6
5th Brazil10,7
5th Brazil121
5th France404
Some Market AspectsRanking 2007
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Some Market AspectsSteel Production
Growth Projection for 2008
• Brazil – 10%
• China – 10,8%
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Some Market Aspects
Naval Industry
• By 2011, China will be the world´s
largest manufacturer of bulk
carriers and the second largest in
oil tankers.
• In 2007, Brazilian Naval Industry Grew 74%;
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Brazil’s Aeroplane Trade (US$ Million FOB)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Exports 2,799.2 2,050.0 3,371.3 3,302.8 3,442.5 4,367.5
Imports 685.0 591.3 888.3 967.7 1,234.5 1,593,2
Balance 2,114.2 1,458.6 2,482.6 2,335.1 2,208.0 2,774.30
Flow of Commerce 3,484.2 2,641.3 4,260.0 4,270.5 4,676.0 5,960.70
Some Market Aspects
Source: Development, Industry and Trade Ministry - MDIC
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18%
7%
75%
Brazil
China
Others
Some Market AspectsWorld’s Availability of Fresh Water
Sources: Agência Nacional das Águas do Brasil and Embassy of the Popular Republic of China in Brazil
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56789
1011121314
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
April May June
Unemployment rate in BrazilMonths of April, May and June – 2002 to 2008
Some Market Aspects
Source: IBGE
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Some Market Aspects
Unemployment in China
Sources: CIA World Factbook , The Economist
YearUnemployment
rateRank
Percent change
2006 9.00% -8.16% -8.16%
2009 4.0% 45 0.0%
2010 (est.) 4.30% 39 7.5%
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2005 2006 2007
Brazil's Social Development: Growth of Class C % of Population
34%36%
48%
Market Aspects
Sources: Ipsos Public Affairs and Financial Institution Celetem
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Bilateral Sino Brazilian Cooperation
Political World TradeAgriculture
Health Energy
Microelectronics Informatics
Space
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Address:9/ F, Tower II, China Central Place, 79Jianguo Road, Chaoyang District100025 – Beijing – China
Phone: (86-10) 5920-4499Fax: (86-10) 5920 - 4222
NORONHA ADVOGADOS
The Noronha Advogados office in Beijing was opened in 2009 and has
a team of lawyers with fluency in English, Mandarin and Portuguese.
Contact: Dora Huiqing
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Address:
450 Fushan Road
Suntime International Mansion,
14th floor –Room F
200122 Pudong, Xangai, China
Phone: (86-21) 6876-6311
Fax: (86-21) 6876-6312
NORONHA ADVOGADOS
The Noronha Advogados office in Shanghai was opened in April 2001 and
has a team of lawyers with fluency in English, Mandarin and Portuguese.
Contact: Gustavo Jacobina Rabello [email protected]
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NORONHA ADVOGADOS