Santander - LATAM Field Guide - The Recovered Decade - 1.11.2010

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Important disclosures/certifications are in the Important Disclosures section of this report.

U.S. investors inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629/ (212) 350-3918.* Employed by a non-US affiliate of Santander Investment Securities, Inc. and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under FINRA rules.

Latin American Equity Research Strategy Report

New York, January 11, 2010 Latin AmericaStrategy

LATAM FIELD GUIDE 1Q10The Recovered DecadeCristin MorenoHead of Latin American Equity Research+1 212 [email protected]

When the term The Lost Decadeis mentioned in our profession, the first thing that comes to mind is Latin America. This

is due to LatAms poor economic performance in the 1980s and part of the 1990s. Well, with the first decade of the

millennium just completed, we could easily make the case for the term The Recovered Decade.The equity markets in Latin

America, which partly reflect current and future economic prospects, posted not only a strong performance, but collectively they

also posted the strongest performance among all the regions in the world. Unfortunately, past performance is not indicative offuture performance, so we need to formulate our expectations for the upcoming years. Fortunately, the improvement in

fundamentals in the region provide a solid base upon which we can forecast a positive decade to come. The focus of this report

is the outlook and recommended strategy for 2010, the first year of the new decade.

Latin American equities increased 268.7% in the first decade of the millennium. This performance is not only strongin absolute terms (implied CAGR of 13.9%), it also positioned LatAm as the worlds best-performing market of the

decade. LatAm outperformed both Emerging Asia and EMEA within the Emerging Markets category, and wassignificantly higher than the 17.2% decrease posted by developed markets.

What was behind the growth?We believe there were three key elements. First, LatAm country risk decreased from amaximum EMBI spread of 13.5% in September 2002 to the current 3.5%. Currently, more than 80% of LatAms GDP is

generated in investment-grade countries, compared to less than 5% 10 years ago. Second, the prices of the key

commodities for LatAm equity marketsoil, iron ore and copperincreased by 205%, 268% and 290%, respectivelyfrom 2000 to 2009. Finally, GDP for the region posted average annual growth of 3.0% during the decade, outperforming

world GDP growth.

Looking toward 2020. As we enter a new decade, we remain bullish about Latin American equities, although we expecmore moderate annual returns. Looking at the three drivers of the previous decade, we believe that GDP growth and

internal dynamics will increase their contribution to the market performance in the upcoming decade, as we expect GDP

growth to accelerate. We further believe that commodity prices will continue to be supportive, with LatAm commodity

producers gaining in terms of world market share. However, we believe that returns will be more moderate compared with

the previous decade, as commodity price increases will likely be smaller and most of the positive one-time impact of

decreases in country risk has already materialized.

Looking at 2010, we expect a good start. We believethe global economic recovery, led by China, will be beneficial forkey commodities in the region, particularly for mining, both in terms of volumes and prices. Meanwhile, in the LatAmcountries we cover, we expect average GDP growth of 3.0% compared with last years 2.6% decrease. In this context, we

expect earnings growth to increase by 30%, which is a benign scenario for equities. However, with valuations returning to

more normal levels, we believe that bottom-up analysis and sector-specific dynamics will play a key role in the

investment strategy this year. The potential market upside based on the target prices of the companies we cover is 16.2%.


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Important disclosures/certifications are in the Important Disclosures section of this report.U.S. investors inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629/ (212) 350-3918.

3

OUTLOOK FOR 2010

We expect 30% earnings growth, driven by strong commodity prices and the global

economic recovery. From a top-down perspective, there are two key forces driving earnings

growth in 2010. On one side, the prices and volumes of the key commodities of the region areexpected to post a significant increase in 2010 versus 2009, which we expect to drive commodity-

related stocks to post a 35.1% and 41.2% increase in earnings and EBITDA, respectively. On the

other, we expect the recovery in domestic GDP in LatAm to be very strong, from -2.6% to 3.0%,

helping non-commodity sectors to post 26.2% earnings growth. In addition to the two main

forces, the earnings expansion in some sectors will likely be boosted by M&A activity.

Figure 2: Drivers of Earnings Growth in LatAm

LatAm GDP Growth, 2009E2010E LatAm Growth in Private Consumption, 2009E2010E

-7.2%

-2.6%

4.1%4.8%

-1.8%

-0.2%0.0%

0.8%

-3.1%

5.1%

3.8%

2.1% 2.5% 3.0%

Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru LatAm

2009F 2010F

-2.7%

2.6%

1.4%

-0.7%

-7.1%

6.5%

-1.0%

3.8%

6.0%

3.7%

1.3% 2.0%

4.1%

2.6%

Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru LatAm

2009F 2010F

Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.

Figure 3: Recovery in Key Commodities

Estimated Growth in Production Volumes, 2010E vs.2009E

Estimated Increase in Average Commodity Prices, 2010E vs.2009E

40%

23%

20%

6% 6%

Copper Iron Ore Steel Nickel Oil

38%

30%

14%

41%

13%

Copper Iron Ore Steel Nickel Oil

Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.

Is this growth already priced in?As noted in Figure 4, LatAm markets are trading at higher-

than-historical multiples on a P/CE basis (9.3x vs. the historical 7.5x). However, after adjusting

for the current risk profile of the region by comparing the cash earnings yield to the bond yield,

valuations are close to their historical average. As such, valuations reinforce our view that gains

coming from the expansion of valuation multiples will likely be limited and that the main driver

of LatAm markets will be earnings growth.


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LatAm Field Guide: The Recovered Decade


4

Figure 4: 12-Month Forward Valuations

Cash Earnings Yield vs. Bond Yield Price/Cash Earnings

-10%

-6%

-2%

2%

6%

10%

14%

18%

'00 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09

-10%

-6%

-2%

2%

6%

10%

14%

18%Last: 3.3%

Avg: 4.2%

High: 11.6%

Low: -6.0%

-

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

-

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0Last: 9.32

Avg: 7.53

High: 11.97

Low : 4.34

Sources: Company reports, Bloomberg and Santander estimates.

The main risk to our positive view of LatAm markets is on the flows side. The positive

performance of LatAm last year was supported by strong flows from foreign investors. Flowsfrom foreign investors were enough to absorb large amounts of equity offerings and to allow

foreign investors to be the main net purchasers of LatAm stocks. While we believe that foreign

flows will continue to be strong, a change in the direction of foreign flows due to global dynamics

or an unbalanced relationship between equity offerings and flows could affect these markets in

2010.

Figure 5: Quarterly Flows

LatAm, GEMsDedicated and Other GEMs Bovespa Purchases & Divestitures

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409

LatAm All GEMS Dedicated GEMS Others

-5000

-2500

0

2500

5000

Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409

Individual Institutional Foreign Investor

Corporate Financial Institutional Others

Sources: EPFR Global, ABRAPP, and Santander.


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5

STRATEGY FOR 2010

We believe that the best strategy for 2010 is to ride the earnings growth theme, but only at

reasonable valuations.In order to put the sectors into perspective, Figure 6 shows the earnings

growth we expect for 2010 and the P/E at which each of the sectors would be trading after thatgrowth. The sectors that we favor are the ones in the High Growth, Low Valuation section of the

chart. These are Mining, Financial Services, Cement & Construction, Industrials and Food.

Figure 6: LatAm Sectors: 2010E P/Es and Earnings Growth

Conglomerates & Industrials

Education

Food

Health Care

Metals & Mining

Pulp & Forest Products

Retail & Consumer Goods

Utilities

Aerospace & Transportation

Agribusiness

Cement, Constr, Infra & RE

Oil,Gas & Chemicals

Telecom, Media & Technology

Financial Svcs

Beverage

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130%

Sources: Bloomberg, company reports and Santander estimates.


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6

Table 1: Sector Recommendation Highlights

Sector Recommendation Investment Thesis

Mining Overweight This is our favorite sector among commodities. We are recommending exposure to copper and iron o

driven by the growing demand from China and a limited supply, which we expect should continu

supporting an upward trend in prices. We expect copper prices to average US$3.25 per pound in 2010, o

some 38.0% above the 2009 average. We also highlight the significant capacity expansion that will com

on stream in the copper companies. Meanwhile, we expect iron ore (contractual) prices to increase b

25% starting April 2010.

LatAm Top Picks: Vale, Grupo Mexico, Antofagasta.

Financial Services Overweight Of the most representative sectors in LatAm among non-commodities, the financial sector is our favorit

The sector should benefit from a recovery in loan growth, declining NPLs and cost savings resulting fro

M&A activity, specifically in Brazil. We expect loan growth to reach 22.9%, 18.8%, 18.6%, 10.7%, 10.2%

and 8.0% in Brazil, Argentina, Peru, Chile, Mexico and Colombia, respectively.

LatAm Top Picks: Banco do Brasil, Ita Unibanco, Banorte, BCI.

Conglomerates

& Industrials

Overweight The industrial sector should post strong growth in 2010 driven by economic recovery in the U.S. an

further operating improvements resulting from the acquisitions of past years in the case of the Mexica

industrial companies, and the recovery in industrial activity, which should boost the capacity utilization Brazil. Meanwhile, valuations are compelling with a 2010E P/E of 14.7x.

LatAm Top Picks: Mexichem, Iochpe-Maxion.

Cement &

Construction

Overweight We have an overweight recommendation in this sector mainly due to our positive view of the housin

sector in Brazil. On one side, the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program will support the growth of the low

income segment; on the other, the economic recovery in Brazil should help the middle- and high-incom

segment. We have a neutral view on the shopping centers. While the growth prospects continue to b

attractive, we believe valuations already incorporate the growth prospects. We are less bullish on th

housing sector in Mexico due to the more conservative plans of Infonavit for the 2010-2014 period, th

funding problem experienced by Fovisste, and the implementation of the new accounting rules in th

sector.

LatAm Top Picks: MRV Engenharia, Irsa.Food Overweight Among the sectors with highest growth due to consolidation, our favorite is Food. Mergers and acquisitio

(mostly done at reasonable transaction multiples) are driving growth and providing a platform for marg

expansion though synergies and higher value-added products. Our favorite name in this group is Marfri

We also believe that there are some attractive financial deleveraging stories in the Food sector; this wou

include Gruma and Minerva.

LatAm Top Picks: Marfrig, Minerva, Gruma.

Agribusiness Neutral We are bullish on sugar prices in 2010 on the back of a globally supportive supply picture (especially

India and Brazil). We are also positive on the ongoing recovery in ethanol prices that we believe still ha

some upside to go driven by the continuously strong demand of ethanol in Brazil and still-strong sug

prices that limit the growth in the supply of ethanol. However, from a LatAm strategy point, we have

neutral recommendation due to the lack of bottom-line visibility in the sector.

Oil, Gas &

Chemicals

Neutral While we are optimistic about PBRs prospects in terms of new discoveries, its strong reserve position an

expected high-growth potential, the upcoming equity offering and potential approval of the new oil law

Congress are adding uncertainty, which supports our neutral outlook from the LatAm strategy viewpoin

This neutral view is also supported by Ecopetrol, which, although interesting from a fundamental view,

currently trading at rich valuations. For exposure to this sector, we would recommend the oil service

segment, more specifically Tenaris.


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7

Table 1: Sector Recommendation Highlights (contd)


Pulp and Forest

Products

Neutral We remain positive regarding pulp prices, as demand is recovering (especially in the tissue segment) and

capacity increases for the coming three years are limited given the financial constraints that many players in

the sector face. In addition, we believe there is room for upside surprises in pulp prices, as capacity in thNorthern Hemisphere may shrink at a faster-than-anticipated pace if government subsidies start fading, a

many governments, like the U.S. for example, are facing significant deficits.

We are projecting average pulp prices to increase by 30% in 2010 and 9% in 2011 (we estimate average

eucalyptus pulp prices of US$735 per ton in 2010 and US$809 per ton for 2011) which, in our opinion

should offset the risk of foreign exchange appreciation in countries such as Brazil. However, from a LatAm

strategy point of view, we recommend a neutral weighting due to the sectors high valuations relative to

other commodities.

Retail Neutral While from a top-down perspective, the retail sector would be attractive in the context of an economi

recovery, we believe that current valuations already capture that as the sector has the richest valuations in

LatAm with a 2010E P/E of 24.2x. As such, we have a neutral view on the sector. Within the sector, the

recommended strategy is consistent with the differences in private consumption growth we see among the

countries, with Brazil leading the pack, with 6.0% growth, and Mexico and Colombia lagging with 2.0% and

1.3%, respectively. In terms of format, we prefer exposure to the more cyclical durables segment.

LatAm Top Pick: Lojas Renner.

Aerospace &

Transportation

Neutral We have a positive view on the airline segment of this sector. We expect domestic RPKs to grow 12% in

Brazil and traffic in Copa and Lan to increase by 12% and 10%, respectively. Meanwhile, yields should

recover in the Brazilian airlines and in Copa after suffering from a price war in the case of the former and

the impact of the swine flu in the case of the latter. Lan should also benefit from a strong 19% expected

growth in RTKs in the cargo business. Our favorite stocks in this segment are Copa and Tam. For the

airports, while current valuations lead us to have a neutral view, we believe that Asur could outperform due

to the expected 9.8% traffic growth, which could have upside if the recovery in the U.S. proves to be better

than expected. For Embraer, we still believe that the scenario for global airlines continues to limi

expectations for significant capacity increases that could benefit Embraer.

LatAm Top Pick: Tam.

Health Care Neutral The sector is posting one of the strongest growth rates in LatAm. In 2010, the material acquisitions oMedial by Amil and the merger of Odontoprev with Bradesco Dental should contribute to lowering

competitive pressures and supporting margin growth. However, incorporating these acquisitions, we reac

a 2010E P/E of the sector of 20.2x, which is high compared to LatAm. However, we believe the highe

valuations are justified given our expectations of further increases in the penetration of Health and Denta

Care plans from the current 22% and 6.5%, respectively. In Mexico, we l ike Genomma Lab.

LatAm Top Pick: Genomma Lab.

Steel Underweight Steel prices have limited upside potential, in our view, given the significant spare capacity that exist

worldwide. In addition, the threat of cheap imports coming from Asia is starting to become an issue in the

Americas, thereby limiting price increases and potential capacity expansions. We are expecting averag

steel prices to increase by 14% in U.S. dollars in 2010, largely reflecting increases in raw material costs

Value can only be found in small caps such as ICH and Siderar, in our opinion.

LatAm Top Picks: Siderar, ICH.

Beverage Underweight We have an Underweight recommendation on this sector mainly due to its relatively low growth in th

context of a recovery due to its non-cyclical and defensive characteristics. Also, valuations do not appea

compelling. However, a few exceptions include CCU and Arca. In the case of CCU, the company shoul

benefit from grain cost relief in core beer operations in Chile. Meanwhile, Arca is exposed to northern

Mexico, where we expect the economic growth to outpace the national average. Moreover, its Coca Cola

territories in Argentina (17% of sales) are poised to benefit from the second year of restructuring since thei

acquisition. Finally, the Argentine assets of both CCU and Arca could benefit if our expectation of reduction

in country risk materializes.


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8

Table 1: Sector Recommendation Highlights (contd)


Utilities Underweight While we see significant value in this sector at a 2010E P/E of 11.3x, we believe that the slow growth o

the sector, relative to LatAm, will imply an underperformance of this sector in 2010. However, we also

believe that there are interesting dynamics going on that are important reasons for building exposure to

this sector. In Brazil, the main themes to follow are the recovery in industrial volumes, the impact that the

political elections will have, particularly on the state-owned companies and M&A activity. In Chile, th

improved top-down story for the country could benefit the heavyweight utilities sector. Finally, in Argentina

valuations are very depressed and could improve as country risk improves.

LatAm Top Picks: Endesa, Pampa.

Telecom Underweight We are underweighting the Telecom sector due to its defensive nature, which is inconsistent with a

recovery-focused investment strategy. In addition, there are certain sector-specific dynamics that reinforce

our recommendation. In Mexico, two events lead us to be conservative: first, the planned auction this yea

of a significant amount of spectrum; second, the introduction of a new 3% tax on telecom services. An

important issue to monitor in Mexico is how potential bidders for spectrum structure their participation. I

Brazil, the competitive intensity in the mobile segment is likely to continue.

In terms of countries, we recommend overweighting Brazil and Peru, having neutral

exposure to Chile and Mexico and underweighting Colombia. We also believe that Argentina

could be an attractive off-index investment for investors willing to take a higher level of risk than

the average level of risk in LatAm. As can be seen in Figure 7, Brazil and Peru are the countries

that should post the strongest growth in terms of earnings, and after that expected growth their

valuation multiples are low relative to LatAm. Table 2 presents the reasons for our country

preferences. Compared to the allocation we recommended in our strategy for the last part of 2009,

the main change is that now we prefer Brazil to Mexico, which is mainly due to the better sector

composition of Brazil compared to Mexico in the context of our recommended strategy.

Figure 7: LatAm Country Statistics

LatAm Countries: 2010E P/Es and Earnings Growth LatAm Market CapComposition by Sector

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Peru

Mexico

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

00%

Brazil Mexico Chile Peru Colombia Argentina

Aerospace & Transp. AgribusinessCement, Constr, Infra & RE Conglom. & Indus.Education Food & Beverage

Health Care Metals & MiningOil, Gas & Chemicals Pulp & Forest Prod.Retail & Consumer Telecom, Media & TechUtilities Financial Svcs

Sources: Company reports, Bloomberg and Santander estimates. Note: market breakdown based on Santanders coverage universe.


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11

Table 3: Top PicksInvestment Theses (contd)

Company Investment Thesis

Marfrig Marfrigs recent acquisition of Seara from Cargill and the new leases on 12 beef plants in Brazil position the

company to better benefit from two attractive, earnings-enhancing trends: 1) the strong growth potential of

processed meat products in Brazil; and 2) the expected growth in cattle herds in 2010, which should help drive 15%-

20% growth in Brazilian beef industry volume exports in 2010.

Marfrig acquired a national brand with Seara, which should enable the company to increase processed products as

a percentage of sales from approximately 30% currently to 50% by 2012. Seara should help generate operating

synergies with Marfrigs existing poultry and pork assets (over a 24-month period) equal to 5% of estimated 2010

EBITDA. We also estimate significant margin expansion in Europe (OSIs Moy Park asset) in 2010 as Marfrig begins

its second full year of operation, which will include the sale of beef products and further processed poultry and pork

products.

MRV Engenharia In our view, MRV is well positioned to benefit from the positive fundamentals in the Brazilian affordable housing

market. Nearly 80% of MRVs inventory and land bank are eligible for the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program, and it

has one of the lowest average selling prices (R$99,000/unit) among listed Brazilian homebuilders.

Best-in-class in the segment: in addition to its vast experience operating in this segment and its close relationship

with CEF, MRV is quickly expanding its building capacity with vertically integrated operations. Also, it boasts

industry-leading operating margins and ROEs (24% and 17%, respectively, expected for 2009E).

Lojas RennerIn our opinion, Lojas Renner will resume strong earnings growth as the company starts cycling against easier comps

within a more favorable economic environment. The company launched an aggressive organic expansion plan for

2009, which targeted 10 units instead of its original plans for 8 units (representing a selling floor expansion of 9%),

and although there is no official guidance for 2010 expansion plans, we are assuming 13 new stores for a further

expansion of 11%. Our projection for Brazilian GDP growth makes us optimistic about the companys potential SSS

performance as well as about the development of its credit business. Throughout 2009, Renners credit division

witnessed no significant deterioration, with NPLs below 5% of net merchandise sales.

Endesa The company has one of the most aggressive expansion plans in Chile, along with significant capacity additions

planned in Per and Colombia, and a capacity increase of almost 2,900 MW in these three countries (including 51%

of Hydro Aysen) for the next five years.

Moreover, Endesa increased its participation in its Peruvian subsidiary Edegel by 29.4% to a total of 62.5%. We see

this acquisition as a good opportunity to get exposure to a growing market such as the Peruvian market, and at anattractive valuation level.

BCI We believe that the banks higher exposure to SMEs in Chile provides the bank greater exposure to the recovery in

the Chilean economy.

During 2009, BCI suffered from its relatively higher exposure to the salmon fisheries industry, which experienced

phytosanitary issues and damaged profitability in the industry. While borrowers still have yet to restructure their

loans, we believe that the worst for BCI in terms of NPL provisions is over. This has been reflected in increasing

quarterly ROEs throughout 2009. We expect a gradual decline in NPLs and provisions over the next two years to

lead to a recovery in profitability to close to 20% by 2011, and we expect the bank to deliver a three-year net income

CAGR of 22.2% from 2009E to 2012E.

Mexichem We maintain our positive view of Mexichem, as we believe that the growth-integration story will continue in the

medium term. We expect the company to return to attractive EBITDA growth rates in 2010, driven by economic

recovery in the U.S., integration in the chlorine-vinyl-tranformed products chain and a stronger balance sheet that

should allow the company to return to its acquisition mode. In our view, in the medium term, the companys strategy

will allow it to continue delivering its 20-20-20 strategy (20% sales and EBITDA growth with ROE above 20%).

Going into 2010, we expect the company to be active in its negotiations on the acquisition of downstream assets in

the fluorine chain. We also expect that the company will attempt to make additional acquisitions in the chlorine/PVC

divisions. The ramp-up of the aluminium f luoride plant, inaugurated in 3Q09, should also support growth in 2010.


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14

COMPANY STATISTICSAGRIBUSINESS

Inv Price Target Upside/ Mkt 3-mth Div P/E

Company Code Code 8-Jan Price Down Cap Avg-Vol P/BV Yield 09E 10E 11E

Cosan CSAN3 BZ H 14.32 12.60 -12% 5,681 13.6 1.9 2% 11.9 13.2 16.7

Guarani ACGU3 BZ B 2.65 3.90 47% 936 2.4 1.3 3% 16.8 8.6 14.0

So Martinho SMTO3 BZ B 10.98 12.30 12% 1,240 1.4 1.4 0% 94.9 NM NM

Brazil 7,857 17.4 1.7 1.7% 14.0 14.6 19.8

Agribusiness 7,857 17.4 1.7 1.7% 14.0 14.6 19.8

NM not meaningful. Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.

AEROSPACE &TRANSPORTATION

Inv Price Target Upside/ Mkt 3-mth Div P/E

Company Code Code 8-Jan Price Down Cap Avg-Vol P/BV Yield 09E 10E 11E

ALL America Latina ALLL11 BZ B 10.15 11.00 8% 6,978 37.9 2.9 1% 103.3 38.6 33.7

CCR Rodovias CCRO3 BZ H 24.26 25.00 3% 10,710 24.0 5.0 3% 28.2 19.3 18.6

Embraer ERJ US H 22.44 24.00 7% 4,154 23.7 1.6 3% 21.6 12.6 10.1

Gol GOL US H 15.49 15.00 -3% 4,109 19.6 2.6 1% 13.7 17.8 15.9

Localiza RENT3 BZ B 12.31 14.00 14% 2,482 10.3 4.7 1% 35.7 17.9 13.1

Log-In LOGN3 BZ Uperf 4.89 4.50 -8% 448 0.6 1.4 1% 36.9 31.3 18.8

OHL OHLB3 BZ H 19.74 21.00 6% 1,360 1.5 2.2 2% 17.6 14.3 15.2

Santos Brasil STBP11 BZ H 10.34 9.50 -8% 1,357 0.6 1.8 1% 35.7 24.6 20.2

TAM TAM US B 23.56 21.50 -9% 3,548 16.1 3.6 1% 8.3 17.1 12.0

Tegma TGMA3 BZ B 8.78 9.00 3% 579 1.2 2.4 4% 15.3 12.1 11.1

Wilson Sons WSON11 BZ H 12.77 14.00 10% 909 0.9 1.9 2% 9.3 12.6 12.4

Brazil 36,634 136.4 2.9 1.9% 21.3 19.0 16.3

Lan LFL US H 16.91 17.00 1% 5,729 5.0 4.3 1% 25.7 18.0 14.8

Chile 5,729 5.0 4.3 1.4% 25.7 18.0 14.8

Asur ASR US B 57.33 55.00 -4% 1,720 3.6 1.5 5% 24.1 20.0 18.2

GAP PAC US H 33.80 32.00 -5% 1,882 3.5 0.9 3% 22.8 20.0 17.7

OMA OMAB MM B 13.78 15.00 9% 685 0.5 1.1 4% 20.2 17.2 15.1

Mexico 4,286 7.6 1.1 3.9% 21.7 19.5 17.4

Copa Holdings CPA US B 57.56 60.00 4% 2,486 12.2 2.4 1% 10.7 10.5 8.9

Panama 2,486 12.2 2.4 1.0% 10.7 10.5 8.9

Aerospace & Transportation 49,136 161.3 2.6 1.9% 20.7 18.2 15.6



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AGRIBUSINESS

Growth US$

FV/EBITDA Earnings EBITDA 3-yr CAGR

09E 10E 11E 09E 10E 11E 09E 10E 11E Earn EBITDA Company

9.5 7.7 8.1 NM -13% -21% 180% 18% -6% NM 46% Cosan

8.4 5.0 5.8 NM 98% -38% 56% 54% -17% NM 26% Guarani

10.2 8.7 8.5 NM NM NM 22% 35% 2% NM 19% So Martinho

9.4 7.4 7.8 NM -4% -26% 119% 26% -7% NM 37% Brazil

9.4 7.4 7.8 NM -4% -26% 119% 26% -7% NM 37% Agribusiness


AEROSPACE &TRANSPORTATIONGrowth US$



12.8 10.2 9.3 -36% 191% 15% -8% 36% 10% 29% 11% ALL America Latina

12.4 9.8 8.6 -9% 55% 4% 1% 41% 11% 13% 17% CCR Rodovias

9.5 7.3 6.4 -51% 74% 25% -26% 13% 12% 2% -2% Embraer

28.7 15.3 13.8 NM -22% 12%1303

% 96% 16% NM 217% Gol

11.8 9.3 7.6 -10% 122% 37% -13% 40% 30% 40% 16% Localiza

22.6 12.9 10.2 -73% 18% 67% -28% 110% 38% -19% 28% Log-In

6.9 6.0 6.0 33% 25% -6% 13% 36% 12% 16% 20% OHL

13.3 10.9 9.6 55% 50% 21% -22% 26% 18% 41% 5% Santos Brasil

22.9 9.7 7.9 NM -49% 43% -31% 133% 21% NM 25% TAM

7.4 6.1 5.5 33% 25% 9% 25% 23% 12% 22% 20% Tegma

7.1 7.2 6.8 133% -24% 2% 7% 5% 9% 22% 7% Wilson Sons

13.8 9.8 8.6 NM 18% 16% -4% 49% 15% NM 18% Brazil

12.3 10.2 9.0 -35% 44% 22% -20% 20% 14% 5% 3% Lan

12.3 10.2 9.0 -35% 44% 22% -20% 20% 14% 5% 3% Chile

10.2 10.0 9.3 -24% 33% 10% -8% 17% 6% 4% 4% Asur

10.5 9.6 8.9 -39% 23% 13% -16% 16% 5% -5% 1% GAP

8.8 7.3 6.3 -25% 22% 14% -8% 15% 5% 1% 3% OMA

9.5 9.3 8.5 -31% 27% 12% -11% 16% 5% -1% 3% Mexico

12.1 10.3 8.9 52% 8% 17% 3% 24% 17% 24% 14% Copa Holdings

12.1 10.3 8.9 52% 8% 17% 3% 24% 17% 24% 14% Panama

13.1 9.8 8.6 368% 20% 17% -7% 41% 14% 87% 14% Aerospace & Transportation



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16

CEMENT,CONSTRUCTION,INFRASTRUCTURE &REAL ESTATE

Price Target Upside/ Mkt 3-mthAvg Div P/E

Company Code Rec. 8-Jan Price Down Cap Daily Vol P/BV Yield 09E 10E 11E

Cresud CRESY US Uperf 15.48 15.10 -2% 818 1.2 1.4 1% 23.2 10.5 11.9Irsa IRSA AR B 9.95 11.20 13% 576 0.4 1.0 0% 13.1 8.1 9.7

Argentina 1,393 1.6 1.2 0.5% 17.7 9.3 10.9

BR Malls BRML3 BZ H 13.29 15.00 13% 2,689 9.3 2.0 1% 20.0 21.2 22.3

Brookfield BISA3 BZ B 4.89 5.60 15% 2,141 12.1 1.5 3% 16.4 9.1 6.8

Cyrela Brazil Realty CYRE3 BZ B 13.86 17.00 23% 5,856 47.8 2.3 2% 16.0 11.0 10.3Cyrela CommercialProperties CCPR3 BZ B 6.93 10.00 44% 600 0.2 2.5 1% 21.9 17.7 18.7

Gafisa GFSA3 BZ H 31.86 36.00 13% 2,129 37.5 1.6 2% 19.4 10.2 7.6

Iguatemi IGTA3 BZ B 18.78 22.00 17% 1,488 3.4 1.9 2% 33.8 22.7 21.9

MRV Engenharia MRVE3 BZ B 7.97 9.33 17% 3,838 23.6 2.5 2% 21.1 12.0 11.

Multiplan MULT3 BZ H 19.64 20.00 2% 3,490 7.8 2.2 1% 30.0 22.6 22.6

PDG Realty PDGR3 BZ H 9.24 11.00 19% 3,601 30.2 2.0 2% 22.7 11.1 9.6

RodobensRDNI3 BZ H 10.39 11.50 11% 505 0.6 1.3 3% 25.8 9.9 8.2Rossi Residencial RSID3 BZ B 9.01 10.00 11% 2,401 26.5 1.7 2% 21.7 11.8 10.0

So Carlos SCAR3 BZ H 9.25 11.00 19% 550 0.3 1.6 0% 7.5 16.1 15.7

Trisul TRIS3 BZ B 3.58 4.30 20% 272 0.5 1.0 4% 12.2 6.2 6.4

Brazil 30,294 199.8 1.9 2.0% 19.7 12.7 11.2

Cementos Argos CEMARGOS CB H 5.52 5.70 3% 6,354 10.3 1.2 2% 25.0 28.2 20.2

Colombia 3,744 10.3 1.2 1.7% 24.0 28.2 20.2

Ara ARA* MM B 0.72 0.85 17% 946 2.6 1.1 0% 15.0 13.4 11.9

Cemex CX US H 12.37 14.00 13% 1,1873 113.0 0.6 0% 20.2 19.3 12.6

Geo GEOB MM H 2.75 3.00 9% 1,466 8.9 1.6 0% 10.7 9.5 8.0

Homex HXM US H 34.05 40.00 17% 1,906 20.6 1.5 0% 12.2 10.6 9.8

ICA ICA US B 10.07 12.00 19% 1,618 3.9 1.3 0% 18.4 13.9 11.9

Sare SAREB MM H 0.37 0.45 22% 142 0.7 0.4 0% 6.1 5.6 4.9

Urbi URBI* MM H 2.32 2.50 8% 2,262 4.0 1.6 0% 17.2 14.1 12.6Mexico 20,212 154.5 0.8 0.0% 17.0 15.3 11.6

Cement, Construction, Infrastructure & Real Estate 55,643 366.2 1.2 1.2% 18.8 14.0 11.7Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.

CONGLOMERATES &INDUSTRIALS



Iochpe-Maxion MYPK3 BZ B 15.97 18.50 16% 758 3.0 2.8 3% 39.6 14.2 10.0

Randon RAPT4 BZ B 9.20 10.00 9% 1,419 2.5 2.7 2% 19.0 15.1 12.8

Romi ROMI3 BZ H 7.04 8.50 21% 548 0.7 1.5 2% 313.1 14.8 12.5

Weg WEGE3 BZ H 10.62 11.00 4% 6,562 3.6 4.4 3% 22.4 17.3 15.2Brazil 9,287 9.8 3.5 2.7% 23.8 16.5 14.0

Alfa ALFAA MM H 6.81 6.80 0% 3,809 5.1 1.3 1% 60.6 22.0 17.0

Grupo Carso GCARSOA1 MM Uperf 3.23 6.50 101% 7,516 3.5 2.1 1% 15.4 12.3 12.0

Grupo Kuo KUOB MM H 0.93 0.85 -8% 408 0.2 0.9 0% 9.4 12.0 12.0

Mexichem MEXCHEM* MM B 2.15 2.30 7% 3,863 5.4 3.6 1% 13.8 12.4 11.1PromotoraAmbiental PASAB MM H 1.16 1.30 12% 155 0.2 1.1 0% 36.8 19.8 19.8

Mexico 15,752 14.3 1.9 1.1% 18.0 13.9 12.7

Conglomerates & Industrials 25,038 14.3 2.3 1.6% 19.9 14.7 13.2Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.


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20

FOOD &BEVERAGE



Ambev ABV US H 104.58 107.00 2% 59,423 55.6 4.6 4% 17.7 14.8 14.2Brazil 59,423 55.6 4.6 3.8% 17.7 14.8 14.2

Andina AKO/B US H 21.40 20.85 -3% 2,478 0.3 3.7 6% 14.5 14.7 14.0

CCU CCU US B 40.01 46.72 17% 2,549 1.9 2.3 4% 12.5 13.4 12.3

Concha y Toro VCO US B 45.83 48.20 5% 1,699 0.2 2.7 2% 16.9 23.5 21.3

San Pedro SANPED CI H 7.45 8.82 18% 298 0.0 0.8 1% 22.1 38.4 19.5

Chile 7,023 2.5 2.5 4.0% 14.4 16.0 14.6

Coca-Cola FEMSA KOF US H 65.84 62.00 -6% 12,157 6.6 2.2 1% 19.9 16.7 15.3

Arca ARCA* MM B 3.40 3.48 2% 2,739 2.1 2.0 4% 14.0 11.9 10.2

FEMSA FMX US B 49.39 57.00 15% 17,673 67.5 1.9 1% 23.3 21.2 17.3

Grupo ModeloGMODELOC

MM H 5.49 5.68 4% 17,743 10.4 2.3 4% 30.1 21.5 18.3

Mexico 50,311 86.5 2.1 2.3% 23.4 19.3 16.5

Beverage 116,757 144.7 2.9 3.2% 19.6 16.5 15.1

JBS JBSS3 BZ H 5.62 6.10 9% 13,308 16.5 3.5 0% 208.6 18.9 13.1

Marfrig MRFG3 BZ B 12.33 15.00 22% 4,280 13.4 1.6 2% 14.2 11.6 9.4

Minerva BEEF3 BZ B 3.67 4.30 17% 386 2.3 1.3 3% 8.8 10.2 9.1

Brasil Foods BRFS US H 54.79 55.00 0% 11,951 19.6 1.6 0% 97.7 19.9 17.3

Brazil 29,924 51.7 2.1 0.5% 50.5 17.5 13.6Nacional deChocolates CHOCOLA CB Uperf 10.79 10.81 0% 4,695 1.3 1.8 2% 26.8 24.3 21.2

Colombia 3,136 1.3 1.8 1.8% 26.4 24.3 21.2

Bimbo BIMBOA MM H 6.90 7.50 9% 8,108 4.2 2.2 1% 15.6 15.4 13.7

Gruma GMK US B 7.73 9.00 16% 1,089 0.2 0.4 0% 3.1 2.4 2.1

Mexico 8,546 4.4 1.8 0.7% 13.3 12.0 10.6

Copeinca COP NO B 8.29 9.66 17% 485 1.3 1.3 2% 138.4 12.9 9.0

Peru 485 1.3 1.3 2.3% 138.4 12.9 9.0

Food 42,090 58.8 2.0 0.6% 29.3 16.3 13.1

Food & Beverage 158,848 203.4 2.6 2.5% 21.2 16.5 14.6Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.

HEALTH CARE


Company Code Rec 8-Jan Price Down Cap Daily Vol P/BV Yield 09E 10E 11E

Amil AMIL3 BZ B 8.20 10.30 26% 2,957 2.6 3.8 1% 36.3 19.5 16.0

DASA DASA3 BZ H 32.73 33.30 2% 1,879 7.5 5.3 1% 34.7 21.6 16.5

OdontoPrev ODPV3 BZ B 37.55 32.30 -14% 939 3.9 7.6 17% 30.1 18.4 13.3

Brazil 5,775 14.0 4.6 3.8% 34.2 19.9 15.6

Genomma Lab LABB MM B 2.56 2.80 9% 1,354 4.0 4.7 0% 26.2 21.4 14.3

Mexico 1,354 4.0 4.7 0.0% 26.2 21.4 14.3

Health Care 7,129 18.0 4.6 3.1% 32.5 20.2 15.4Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.


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21

FOOD &BEVERAGEGrowth US$



11.5 9.5 9.2 16% 24% 4% 6% 24% 2% 14% 10% Ambev11.5 9.5 9.2 16% 24% 4% 6% 24% 2% 14% 10% Brazil

7.5 7.8 7.5 9% 4% 4% 11% 1% 5% 6% 6% Andina

9.8 9.2 8.2 59% -5% 10% 21% 5% 9% 19% 12% CCU

17.6 17.6 16.0 69% -21% 10% 17% 9% 9% 14% 12% Concha y Toro

9.5 10.6 7.9 607% -41% 98% 60% -9% 33% 102% 25% San Pedro

10.1 10.0 9.2 41% -6% 9% 18% 4% 8% 13% 10% Chile

9.1 7.8 7.0 22% 19% 10% -8% 12% 6% 17% 3% Coca-Cola FEMSA

7.5 6.6 5.7 -28% 21% 17% -11% 14% 12% 1% 4% Arca

8.8 7.7 6.7 23% 13% 22% -4% 14% 10% 19% 6% FEMSA

11.3 9.6 8.4 -26% 38% 18% -6% 17% 15% 6% 8% Grupo Modelo

9.6 8.2 7.2 -2% 22% 17% -6% 14% 11% 12% 6% Mexico

10.7 9.2 8.5 0.1 21% 9% 0% 18% 7% 13% 8% Food17.1 15.0 10.1 160% 1814% 44% -11% 238% 34% 315% 59% JBS

15.3 7.2 6.2 NM 38% 24% -7% 128% 14% NM 34% Marfrig

9.6 6.4 5.8 NM -5% 12% 1% 51% 7% NM 18% Minerva

23.6 10.3 8.1 NM 412% 15% -50% 125% 25% NM 12% Brasil Foods

18.7 10.5 8.0 NM 271% 29% -30% 161% 26% NM 32% Brazil

12.4 16.3 15.5 -25% 13% 15% -5% 11% 4% -1% 3% Nacional de Chocolates

12.2 11.2 10.6 -25% 13% 15% -5% 11% 4% -1% 3% Colombia

8.7 8.0 7.2 59% 6% 13% 69% 8% 7% 24% 25% Bimbo

4.7 5.4 4.7 NM 64% 14% -2% 10% 4% NM 4% Gruma

8.0 7.2 6.4 NM 16% 13% 43% 9% 6% NM 18% Mexico

8.7 6.1 5.5 NM 1002% 44% -4% 44% 6% NM 14% Copeinca

8.7 6.1 5.5 NM 1002% 44% -4% 44% 6% NM 14% Peru

13.2 9.5 7.6 NM 118% 24% -7% 79% 19% NM 26% Food

11.1 9.3 8.2 1.3 38% 13% -2% 32% 11% 52% 13% Food & BeverageNM not meaningful. Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.

HEALTH CAREGrowth US$



19.0 11.8 9.4 -33% 90% 22% -32% 108% 19% 16% 19% Amil

13.4 9.2 8.0 NM 61% 31% 22% 39% 9% NM 23% DASA

21.5 13.5 9.4 1% 67% 38% -6% 70% 39% 33% 31% OdontoPrev

16.2 10.9 8.9 16% 76% 28% -9% 69% 17% 38% 22% Brazil

16.0 13.2 8.7 19% 43% 49% 36% 40% 47% 36% 41% Genomma Lab

16.0 13.2 8.7 19% 43% 49% 36% 40% 47% 36% 41% Mexico

16.2 11.2 8.8 0.2 69% 31% -3% 64% 22% 37% 24% Health CareNM not meaningful. Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.


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22

METALS &MINING



Magnesita MAGG3 BZ B 8.69 11.00 27% 2,417 4.1 1.7 1% 22.5 32.7 18.3Vale VALE/P US B 26.27 32.00 22% 156,546 219.0 2.8 2% 26.7 19.7 14.8

Brazil 158,963 223.1 2.8 2.0% 26.6 19.8 14.9

Antofagasta ANTO LN B 16.61 18.10 9% 16,379 37.3 2.5 5% 22.2 13.1 9.1

SQM SQM US H 40.01 41.00 2% 10,530 31.1 6.4 2% 29.4 32.5 24.6

Chile 26,910 68.4 3.3 3.9% 24.5 17.1 12.1

Grupo Mexico GMEXICOB MM B 2.48 3.10 25% 19,335 33.1 5.9 2% 16.6 6.4 5.1

Peoles PE&OLES* MM H 22.86 25.45 11% 9,085 5.2 3.1 3% 30.7 14.9 11.6

Mexico 28,420 38.3 4.6 2.1% 19.5 7.8 6.2

Buenaventura BVN US B 37.21 55.40 49% 10,256 55.2 4.1 1% 17.2 15.8 14.5

Southern Copper PCU US B 35.90 41.10 14% 30,515 94.3 5.8 3% 28.2 13.3 10.5

Peru 40,771 149.5 5.2 2.9% 24.4 13.8 11.3

Mining 255,064 479.3 3.2 2.4% 25.0 15.8 12.1

Aluar ALUA AR B 1.00 1.17 16% 1,952 0.3 1.9 3% NM 16.6 14.2

Siderar ERAR AR B 6.30 9.40 49% 2,188 0.5 1.0 2% 20.2 7.4 6.0

Ternium TX US B 37.34 40.00 7% 7,486 12.4 1.0 1% 11.0 14.6 9.6

Argentina 11,626 13.3 1.1 1.8% 15.0 12.5 9.0

CSN SID US H 33.35 38.00 14% 25,185 110.4 7.2 3% 20.5 18.6 14.5

Gerdau GGBR4 BZ H 17.50 17.50 0% 22,924 90.9 2.1 1% 22.3 14.4 11.5

Usiminas USIM5 BZ Uperf 29.52 31.00 5% 15,035 74.4 1.8 2% 29.6 17.1 14.2

Brazil 63,145 275.7 2.8 2.3% 22.9 16.5 13.2

CAP CAP CI H 30.13 30.00 0% 4,503 6.4 4.2 2% NM 19.7 13.1

Chile 4,503 6.4 4.2 2.0% NM 19.7 13.1

ICH ICHB MM B 3.55 4.30 21% 1,548 1.8 0.9 0% 15.8 10.7 9.4Mexico 1,548 1.8 0.9 0.0% 15.8 10.7 9.4

Metals 80,821 297.1 2.2 2.2% 22.4 15.7 12.3

Metals & Mining 335,885 776.3 2.9 2.3% 24.3 15.8 12.1Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.


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23

METALS &MININGGrowth US$



18.7 11.0 9.1 105% -28% 79% -45% 70% 17% 38% 3% Magnesita16.2 11.2 9.3 -58% 44% 33% -46% 56% 21% -7% 0% Vale

16.3 11.2 9.3 -58% 43% 33% -46% 56% 21% -7% 0% Brazil

7.3 4.5 2.9 -58% 75% 44% -7% 67% 36% 2% 28% Antofagasta

17.6 19.0 15.0 -33% -4% 32% -18% -1% 24% -5% 0% SQM

9.7 6.8 4.6 -52% 50% 41% -10% 49% 34% 0% 22% Chile

10.0 6.0 5.0 0% 181% 25% -20% 96% 22% 52% 24% Grupo Mexico

13.7 7.4 5.6 -55% 121% 29% -18% 92% 22% 9% 24% Peoles

10.9 6.2 5.0 -20% 168% 26% -19% 95% 22% 40% 24% Mexico

25.7 17.8 13.8 250% 21% 9% 2% 57% 24% 66% 25% Buenaventura

15.0 8.0 6.3 -30% 132% 26% -24% 100% 24% 27% 23% Southern Copper

16.8 9.3 7.4 -2% 93% 23% -21% 93% 24% 32% 24% Peru0.00%

14.6 9.5 7.6 -0.5 70% 30% -37% 66% 23% 4% 9% Mining

11.1 7.1 6.7 NM NM 17% -48% 54% 5% 5% -6% Aluar

9.3 4.7 4.9 -74% 173% 24% -64% 93% 4% -5% -11% Siderar

12.1 4.9 3.6 -11% -21% 52% -71% 90% 31% 2% -10% Ternium

11.3 5.3 4.3 -41% 24% 38% -67% 83% 22% 0% -10% Argentina

15.5 8.1 7.5 -63% 15% 28% -50% 97% 6% -18% 1% CSN

16.3 8.9 7.7 -65% 63% 25% -66% 83% 6% -11% -13% Gerdau

22.0 8.3 7.6 -73% 81% 20% -79% 185% 10% -17% -13% Usiminas

17.3 8.6 7.7 -66% 45% 25% -65% 105% 7% -15% -9% Brazil

76.9 18.6 13.0 NM NM 51% -79% 303% 33% 6% 3% CAP

76.9 18.6 13.0 NM NM 51% -79% 303% 33% 6% 3% Chile

6.8 4.2 4.1 -59% 50% 13% -50% 41% 15% -11% -7% ICH6.8 4.2 4.1 -59% 50% 13% -50% 41% 15% -11% -7% Mexico

16.6 8.2 7.2 -0.6 48% 28% -65% 102% 10% -12% -8% Metals

15.2 9.1 7.5 -0.5 64% 30% -48% 75% 20% -1% 3% Metals & MiningNM not meaningful. Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.


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25

OIL,GAS &CHEMICALSGrowth US$



4.3 3.9 3.5 52% -45% 17% -35% 9% 6% -1% -9% Petrobras Energia11.3 11.2 8.1 -45% 14% 42% -42% 9% 33% -4% -6% Tenaris

9.8 9.6 7.3 -36% 2% 39% -40% 9% 27% -3% -6% Argentina

9.2 9.2 9.5 NM -76% -40% -28% -2% -2% NM -12% Braskem

8.3 7.3 6.6 -32% 25% 18% -4% 20% 14% 0% 9% Petrobras

29.0 27.4 20.4 NM NM NM -65% 18% 32% NM -18% Lupatech

12.2 11.4 10.0 -7% 37% 16% 31% 10% 10% 14% 17% Ultrapar

8.4 7.4 6.7 -19% 17% 17% -5% 19% 13% 3% 8% Brazil

11.9 10.2 10.4 -68% 13% -24% -43% 34% 6% -35% -7% Ecopetrol

11.9 10.2 10.4 -68% 13% -24% -43% 34% 6% -35% -7% Colombia

8.9 7.9 7.2 -0.3 15% 14% -15% 20% 13% -4% 5% Oil, Gas & ChemicalsNM not meaningful. Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.

PULP &FOREST PRODUCTSGrowth US$



19.9 10.7 8.7 NM 62% 13% 95% 81% 20% NM 61% Fibria

20.2 10.7 9.3 -53% 134% 29% -21% 104% 12% 13% 22% Duratex

9.1 6.3 5.6 NM -78% 124% -8% 38% 2% NM 9% Klabin

11.3 7.9 5.4 NM -67% 213% -33% 41% 35% NM 8% Suzano

15.6 9.4 7.5 NM -4% 42% 2% 65% 19% NM 26% Brazil

15.5 11.8 9.0 -57% 128% 53% -22% 43% 28% 14% 13% CMPC

18.8 12.6 10.7 -3% 77% 24% -20% 52% 16% 29% 12% Copec

9.3 7.0 5.9 NM NM 50% -8% 41% 17% 16% 15% Masisa

17.0 11.9 9.8 -28% 98% 32% -20% 48% 19% 23% 12% Chile

16.3 10.6 8.6 5.7 31% 37% -10% 56% 19% 129% 19% Pulp & Forest ProductsNM not meaningful. Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.


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27

RETAIL &CONSUMER GOODSGrowth US$



15.1 10.9 8.8 46% 64% 56% 40% 33% 25% 55% 32% B2W11.0 8.5 6.4 277% 24% 33% 84% 31% 30% 84% 47% Cia Hering

9.6 7.0 5.4 -26% 29% 20% -11% 20% 12% 5% 6% Dufry

15.1 11.3 9.6 109% 80% 30% 52% 29% 23% 70% 34% Lojas Americanas

13.0 10.4 8.9 55% 29% 21% 65% 20% 16% 34% 32% Lojas Renner

16.0 13.4 11.4 79% 5% 22% 56% 26% 18% 32% 32% Natura

11.7 9.5 7.6 196% 27% 34% 52% 24% 27% 71% 34% Po de Aucar

9.2 7.5 7.1 29% -5% 19% -17% 31% 8% 13% 5% Providencia

8.8 6.2 4.5 -32% 65% 41% -21% 41% 30% 16% 13% Saraiva

13.1 10.3 8.4 79% 26% 29% 44% 26% 22% 43% 31% Brazil

12.3 11.3 9.4 -20% 54% 42% 20% 9% 20% 21% 16% Cencosud

21.5 17.8 15.2 20% 29% 23% 28% 19% 17% 24% 21% Falabella

12.2 11.4 9.6 80% -11% 25% 13% 12% 19% 26% 15% La Polar

NM 16.7 13.0 -92% 600% 110% NM NM 30% 7% 2% Ripley

17.6 14.5 12.2 3% 33% 32% 11% 22% 19% 22% 17% Chile

11.8 10.5 9.2 -11% 52% 40% 4% 11% 17% 24% 11% Almacenes Exito

11.8 10.5 9.2 -11% 52% 40% 4% 11% 17% 24% 11% Colombia

7.8 6.9 5.8 -35% 64% 65% -7% 15% 18% 21% 8% Alsea

12.5 11.7 10.9 -22% 26% 27% 21% 17% 13% 8% 17% Grupo Famsa

8.3 8.1 7.5 29% 7% 10% 18% 7% 8% 15% 11% Kimberly Clark

13.0 12.1 10.5 0% 13% 21% 0% 12% 16% 11% 9% Liverpool

9.3 8.7 7.6 96% 10% 19% 23% 7% 11% 37% 14% Soriana

17.6 15.5 12.6 19% 18% 27% 21% 20% 22% 21% 21% Walmex

14.3 12.9 10.9 22% 15% 23% 17% 15% 18% 20% 17% Mexico

14.6 12.3 10.3 0.3 22% 27% 22% 20% 20% 26% 21% Retail & Consumer Goods


.


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28

TELECOM,MEDIA &TECHNOLOGY



NET Servios NETC US H 14.54 16.10 11% 4987 12.0 2.0 0% 13.5 9.1 9.6Brazil 4,987 12.0 2.0 0.0% 13.5 9.1 9.6

CIE CIEB MM UPerf 0.53 0.52 -2% 190 0.0 0.7 0% NM NM NM

Televisa TV US UPerf 20.89 22.00 5% 11755 48.0 3.2 0% 21.5 18.4 17.1

Mexico 11,946 48.0 3.1 0.0% 22.6 19.0 17.5

Media 16,932 59.9 2.7 0.0% 19.0 14.4 14.1

Telecom Argentina TECO2 AR B 18.15 22.80 26% 3573 2.2 2.3 7% 8.8 6.9 6.3

Argentina 3,573 2.2 2.3 6.9% 8.8 6.9 6.3

Contax Part CTAX4 BZ H 60.34 57.20 -5% 915 2.0 3.2 2% 15.3 11.1 11.0

Telemar Norte Leste TMAR5 BZ B 36.74 48.60 32% 9277 6.6 1.1 0% NM 18.1 16.8

Tele Norte Leste Part TNE US B 22.10 25.40 15% 8660 31.1 1.5 0% NM 24.1 23.1

Telesp TSP US H 25.42 28.80 13% 12869 1.9 2.1 12% 11.4 7.8 7.5

TIM Participaes TSU US H 31.28 32.30 3% 7346 13.1 1.5 3% 461.1 21.8 14.5

Vivo Participaes VIV US B 32.28 36.80 14% 12935 39.2 1.9 8% 25.3 11.9 10.4

Brazil 52,001 93.9 1.6 5.4% 31.0 12.9 11.6

Entel ENTEL CI B 15.31 17.10 12% 3620 8.0 2.7 6% 12.4 12.5 12.6

Chile 3,620 8.0 2.7 6.0% 12.4 12.5 12.6

America Movil AMX US H 48.87 53.00 8% 81246 173.5 5.2 2% 13.5 13.7 12.9

Axtel AXTELCPO MM B 1.01 1.12 10% 1257 4.3 1.9 0% 41.8 73.7 40.9

Telmex TMX US H 16.96 18.50 9% 15426 21.2 5.1 4% 10.1 11.2 11.5

Mexico 97,930 198.9 5.1 2.6% 12.9 13.4 12.7

Telecom 157,125 303.0 2.9 3.7% 15.8 12.9 12.1

Sonda SONDA CI B 1.61 1.78 11% 1241 0.8 2.1 3% 18.8 15.9 15.2

Technology 1,241 0.79 2.13 3% 18.8 15.9 15.2

Telecom, Media & Technology 175,298 363.7 2.8 3.4% 16.0 13.1 12.2NM not meaningful. Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.


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TELECOM ,MEDIA &TECHNOLOGYGrowth US$



8.5 6.6 5.8 NM 59% -5% 13% 32% 7% NM 17% NET Servios8.5 6.6 5.8 NM 59% -5% 13% 32% 7% NM 17% Brazil

3.6 3.4 2.9 NM NM NM -17% -3% 7% NM -5% CIE

9.3 8.3 8.0 -22% 18% 7% -13% 10% 4% -1% 0% Televisa

8.5 7.6 7.4 -16% 20% 8% -13% 9% 5% 3% 0% Mexico

8.4 7.2 6.8 0.5 35% 2% -7% 15% 5% 28% 4% Media

3.3 3.0 2.9 26% 38% 9% -2% 14% 4% 24% 5% Telecom Argentina

3.3 3.0 2.9 26% 38% 9% -2% 14% 4% 24% 5% Argentina

5.6 4.7 4.3 15% 42% 1% 12% 25% 7% 18% 14% Contax Part

4.7 3.3 3.0 NM NM 8% -11% 35% 1% 5% 7% Telemar Norte Leste

4.5 3.1 2.8 NM NM 4% -11% 37% 1% -8% 7% Tele Norte Leste Part

4.7 4.1 4.1 30% 50% 4% -15% 17% 0% 26% 0% Telesp

5.7 4.4 3.8 -85% 2126% 50% -7% 38% 7% 73% 11% TIM Participaes

5.6 4.4 4.1 134% 122% 15% 5% 30% 8% 81% 14% Vivo Participaes

4.9 3.7 3.4 -25% 148% 11% -9% 32% 3% 27% 7% Brazil

5.1 5.4 5.4 14% 5% -1% 20% -2% -1% 6% 5% Entel

5.1 5.4 5.4 14% 5% -1% 20% -2% -1% 6% 5% Chile

7.3 6.8 6.3 8% 2% 6% -6% 8% 4% 5% 2% America Movil

5.8 5.3 4.3 NM -36% 80% -3% 11% 13% NM 7% Axtel

5.6 5.5 5.4 -17% -8% -3% -25% 0% -3% -9% -10% Telmex

6.9 6.5 6.0 3% 0% 5% -11% 6% 3% 2% -1% Mexico

5.7 4.8 4.5 0.0 27% 7% -9% 19% 3% 10% 3% Telecom

8.3 7.8 7.1 48% 22% 5% 17% 9% 7% 24% 11% Sonda8.3 7.8 7.1 48% 22% 5% 17% 9% 7% 24% 11% Technology

5.9 5.0 4.7 0.0 27% 7% -9% 18% 3% 11% 3%Telecom, Media &

TechnologyNM not meaningful. Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.


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UTILITIESGrowth US$



3.4 4.0 3.6 -39% 15% 38% -4% -15% 4% -1% -5% Edenor5.4 4.6 3.6 112% -44% 67% -1% 7% 13% 26% 6% Pampa Energia

6.2 5.9 5.4 NM NM NM 3% -4% 1% NM 0% Transener

4.8 4.5 3.8 104% -39% 68% -2% -2% 9% 28% 2% Argentina

5.0 3.5 3.9 -26% 25% -3% -28% 21% -11% -3% -8% Celesc

6.2 6.1 6.3 -19% 15% -3% -13% 28% -7% -3% 1% Cemig

7.1 6.0 6.2 NM -44% 7% 24% 14% -7% NM 9% Cesp

7.0 5.8 7.4 -13% 11% -35% -9% 21% -23% -14% -5% Coelce

6.5 5.1 5.0 13% 19% -6% 5% 32% -1% 8% 11% Copasa

6.6 6.2 5.6 -11% 8% 9% -16% 9% 4% 1% -2% Copel

10.3 8.2 8.3 -15% 31% 3% -11% 27% -2% 5% 3% CPFL Energia

6.4 5.9 6.9 -40% 40% -37% -18% 14% -14% -19% -7% Eletropaulo

6.6 5.5 5.5 26% 4% -7% -13% 23% -5% 7% 1% Energias do Brasil

6.5 5.8 6.3 -21% 4% -2% -10% 11% -8% -7% -3% Equatorial

7.6 5.6 5.8 -52% 20% -1% -30% 34% -1% -17% -2% Light

5.3 5.5 5.2 10% -22% 26% -9% -2% 8% 3% -1% Sabesp

9.4 7.4 7.3 -13% 15% 7% -10% 25% -1% 2% 3% Tractebel

7.1 6.2 6.3 23% 6% -1% -11% 19% -4% 9% 1% Brazil

7.4 8.2 9.7 171% -25% 13% 69% -1% 2% 32% 20% AES Gener

15.5 15.2 14.0 141% -39% 15% 39% -5% 0% 19% 10% Colbun

10.2 10.8 9.5 24% -3% 15% 38% -6% 8% 11% 12% Endesa

7.1 7.4 6.8 43% 11% 6% 21% -8% 4% 19% 5% Enersis

7.3 7.5 7.9 190% 2% 1% 42% 2% 0% 44% 13% IAM

8.0 8.5 7.9 49% -2% 10% 30% -6% 5% 17% 8% Chile

7.3 6.9 6.8 0.3 3% 4% 3% 8% 0% 12% 4% UtilitiesNM not meaningful. Sources: Bloomberg and Santander estimates.


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Santander - LATAM Field Guide - The Recovered Decade - 1.11.2010

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Transcript of Santander - LATAM Field Guide - The Recovered Decade - 1.11.2010