Santa Clara County Civic Center Market Study...bae urban economics 2 Summary: Potential Market...

Santa Clara County Civic Center Market Study

August 2012 bae

2 bae urban economics

Summary: Potential Market Demand

¨  Based on the research and analysis described in this study, the Civic Center area could potentially support the following demand for various land uses over the next 20 years.

¤  This does not include the County’s own facilities requirements.

¤  The potential demand may be greater than what can be developed at the Civic Center, depending upon available sites and the County’s own requirements.

Use Quantities

Multifamily Residential 2,000 – 2,400 dwelling units

Office (Non-County) 1.0 – 1.2 million square feet

Retail 100,000 – 140,000 square feet

Lodging 1 – 2 hotels / 125 – 250 rooms


Summary: Planning Context

¨  The Civic Center offers a central location between North and Central San Jose that is well positioned to capture growth as traditional high-tech centers in the northern part of the County are built out.

¨  Existing and pending plans for North and Central San Jose, and Coleman Avenue west of the Airport, allow substantial new development.

¤  51+ million square feet of office, industrial, and R&D space.

¤  46,000+ new dwelling units.

¤  4.7 million square feet of region- and local-serving retail.

¤  2,200 new hotel rooms.

¤  Two major league sports stadia, in addition to the new 49’ers stadium (major league baseball and major league soccer).


Summary: Current Market Context

¨  Silicon Valley is one of the strongest-performing local economies in the US.

¨  The Santa Clara Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has gained nearly 34,000 new employed residents in the past 12 months; the total now exceeds 2008 pre-recession levels.

¨  There are now 4,900+ new apartments under construction in North and Central San Jose, the highest level since the late 1990’s. ¤  This is driven by rapid growth and job creation by Valley companies.

¤  Absorption is projected to be sufficient to lease up this new development.

¤  Substantial market support will remain even as development slows to normal levels.

¤  From 2000 to 2010 including the financial crisis and subsequent downturn, North San Jose’s population grew 83%, gaining more than 6,500 in population.

¨  The Civic Center retail trade area is amply served by existing retail, limiting the potential to moderate amounts of new local-serving retail.


Summary: Current Market Context, cont’d

¨  Class A office vacancy remains at nearly 20%, however absorption in North San Jose in the first half of 2012 exceeded every other County submarket, excluding Sunnyvale.

¨  While North and Central San Jose have traditionally been second- or third-tier office markets for high-tech companies, this pattern is changing.

¤  At present, Northern Santa Clara County’s office submarkets are effectively built-out and fully occupied.

¤  Demand that cannot be met there is rapidly leasing available space in Sunnyvale, and beginning to drive leasing in North San Jose buildings.

¨  Lodging potential will be driven by new office development in the area, and will compete with Airport and Downtown locations.


Summary: Product Type Findings

¨  For-sale multifamily is not being considered because the County seeks to retain long-term ownership of the land.

¤  For-sale units can in theory be developed on leased land, but this is not common and is likely to experience resistance from both developers and buyers.

¨  Although most local multifamily development continues to be in 4 – 5 story podium and wrap apartment projects, there are 2 midrise apartment buildings under construction in North San Jose.

¤  Barry Swenson previously built a midrise apartment building adjacent to the Civic Center, although his future plans for the rest of the site include two midrise condo towers and one high-rise condo tower.


Summary: Product Type Findings, cont’d

¨  The Class A office market prefers buildings of up to 6 stories, with 30,000 to 45,000 square foot floorplates. Buildings are intensely utilized, with as little as 150 square feet or less of space per person.

¤  Traditional office ratios are as high as 250 square feet per person or more.

¤  High-tech companies and their employees seek high-quality site design and amenities that create a “live-work-play environment”.

¨  Retail space can be developed as a ground floor use in mixed-use buildings.

¨  Lodging is most likely to be limited service or boutique hotels in the B+/A- quality range.


Summary: Site Development Findings

¨  The VTA North 1st St. light rail station is a major advantage that enhances the potential for all uses.

¤  With Downtown 2 stops away, the Civic Center location offers convenient access to Downtown amenities, but in a lower-key setting.

¨  New development should be oriented towards the light rail station and offer a pedestrian-oriented environment with easy access to the site. High quality design and placemaking are important factors for success.

¨  The nearest Caltrain station at College Park is too far to walk – a major challenge because high-tech companies strongly prefer locations next to Caltrain to help attract and retain employees living in San Francisco.

¤  A convenient shuttle to Caltrain should be a priority. One opportunity may be to participate in planning for a shuttle link between the Coleman Avenue development adjacent to the Santa Clara Caltrain station and the Airport.


Contents: Civic Center Market Study

¨  Methodologies 10

¨  Demographic Analysis 13

¨  Planning Context 18

¨  Real Estate Market Analysis and Demand Capture by Use ¤  Multifamily 20

¤  Office 27

¤  Retail 34

¤  Lodging 39

¨  Appendices – Detailed Data Tables 41


Methodology

¨  Assessed both demand (demographics and firm changes) and supply (real estate market) factors in the Study Area to understand market potential.

¤  Study Area is North San Jose (including eastern Santa Clara City) and Central San Jose (Downtown + Diridon area, including adjacent residential). This is the primary market area for new multifamily, office, and lodging uses.

¤  It includes the Coleman Avenue area west of the Airport with plans for extensive development in San Jose, Santa Clara City portions (including the former FMC site).

¨  Demographic analysis uses Census 2010 and Census 2006 – 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) data for the Study Area.

¨  Data on employed residents is by industry and occupation from California Employment Development Department Data for Santa Clara MSA; data on jobs by area is from ACS for local market area geographies.

¨  Data is compared with City of San Jose, Santa Clara County, 9-County Bay Area.


Study Area – North & Central San Jose


Methodology, cont’d

¨  Potential future market support is based on the Study Area’s current share of City-wide population and employment, potential to capture a larger share.

¤  Based on ABAG projections for household and employment growth through 2030. This is not market based, however it is the best available projection.

¤  Evaluated the Study’s Area’s share of future City growth, based on current conditions, long-term trends, area characteristics, allowable development, etc.

¤  Calculated “low” and “high” capture rates for future growth to provide a range for supportable development.

¨  Formulated recommendations for development product types and pricing, based on demographics, real estate market, and potential future growth.

¤  Real estate market data sources include CoStar, RealFacts, and Nielsen (Claritas).

¤  The data and analysis provides the basis for upcoming financial feasibility testing of prototype development projects as well as recommendations for phasing.


Population Trends

¨  Population growth in San Jose, the County, and the Bay Area was moderate from 2000 – 2010, ranging from 5.4% (Bay Area) to 5.9% (County).

¤  The County gained just over 99,000 in population, total of 1.72 million in 2010.

¨  Central San Jose grew over the decade at a faster rate of 7.8%, gaining nearly 6,500 new residents, with nearly 90,000 population in 2010.

¨  North San Jose grew tremendously over the decade, nearly 83%, gaining 14,500 new residents, with over 32,000 population in 2010.

¤  It gained more than 6,500 new households (with new households driving demand for new dwelling units).


Demographic Trends

¨  North and Central San Jose have smaller and younger households, fewer kids, and higher educational attainment than the City, County, or Bay Area.

¤  Average household size in North San Jose in 2010 was 2.39 persons; in Central San Jose, 2.63 persons; while the City was 3.09 persons; the County 2.9 persons; and the Bay Area 2.69 persons.

¤  Median age in North San Jose in 2010 was 32.3 years (down from 32.6 years in 2000) and 32.1 years in Central San Jose; vs. 35.2 years in the City; 36.2 years in the County; and 37.8 years in the Bay Area.

¤  Youth under 18 years in 2010 was 20% in North and Central San Jose; vs. 25% in the City; 24% in the County; and 23% in the Bay Area. Conversely, there are fewer persons 65+ years in North and Central San Jose.

¤  Nearly 68% of North San Jose residents who are 25+ years have a college degree or higher. Central San Jose has a lower rate at 39%, while County is higher at 53% along with the Bay Area (49%).


Demographic Trends, cont’d

¨  North and Central San Jose have fewer family households, more households headed by single persons, and a greater share of renters.

¤  Family households (all types) are 60% of the total in North San Jose and 54% in Central San Jose; vs. 73% in San Jose; 71% in the County; and 65% in Bay Area.

¤  Households containing a single person are 29% in North San Jose and 31% in Central San Jose; vs. 20% in the City; 22% in the County; 26% in the Bay Area.

¤  Renters comprise 66% of households in North San Jose; 64% in Central San Jose; 42% in the City and County; and 44% in the Bay Area.

¨  North San Jose households are the most affluent of all the areas studied, with median household income of $100,600 in 2010.

¤  The figure for Central San Jose was $57,700; for the City $80,000; for the County $88,000; and for the Bay Area $76,700.

¨  North San Jose households typify the young, affluent high tech work force.


Employment Trends

¨  North San Jose households have a much higher proportion of jobs classified in manufacturing (27%, this sector includes many high-tech industries) and professional/scientific/management (27%).

¤  The next highest for this sector is the County, with 20% in manufacturing, 18% in professional/ scientific/management.

¨  Nearly 66% of North San Jose households’ occupations are management/ business/science/arts (County is next highest at 49%).

¨  The Santa Clara MSA (with San Benito County, just over 1% of total) as of June 2012 had 922,100 employed residents, an increase of 33,900 from June 2011.

¤  Historical data from the State shows 905,500 total employed residents in 2008, with a decline to 846,100 in 2010.


Demographic Projections

¨  ABAG 2009 Projections for 2010 – 2035, in 5-year increments, were reviewed for household (new housing unit demand) and employment (new commercial space) growth.

¤  Although 2010 projections predate the Census and are higher than Census figures, the increment of growth is assumed achievable over the long-term (California Department of Finance figures projecting a slow-down in long-term growth are only at the County level).

Area

Household Growth 2010-2035

%

Employment Growth 2010-2035

%

North San Jose 29,300 233% 126,600 121%

Central San Jose 28,400 83% 73,300 99%

City of San Jose 130,000 43% 339,500 92%

Santa Clara County 213,300 35% 506,400 56%

Bay Area 635,400 24% 1,632,000 47%


Planning Framework

¨  The City of San Jose has already planned for substantial new development along North First Street.

¤  The Civic Center location is immediately south of the North First Street planning area, however it is understood that there is potential to apply its provisions to the Civic Center area.

¨  The City is currently revising its plans for allowable development in the Downtown Area as part of the Envision 2040 General Plan Update.

¨  A preferred alternative for future development in the Diridon Caltrain station area has been identified as part of a Specific Plan process.

¨  Both San Jose and Santa Clara City are currently planning extensive new development along Coleman Avenue, west of the Airport, including the area around the Santa Clara Caltrain station.


Planning Framework, cont’d

¨  Based on a review of current and pending plans there is the potential capacity for over 100 million square feet of all types of new development in the Study Area, as shown in the table below:

¨  These figures are subject to revision based upon changes in the pending Envision 2040 General Plan Update, Diridon Specific Plan, and planning efforts for the Santa Clara Caltrain/Coleman Avenue area.

Study Area Development Potential as of July 2012

Santa ClaraNorth Downtown Caltrain/SJ

San Jose San Jose Diridon Coleman Ave. Total

Office/Industrial/R&D (sf) 26,700,000 17,542,553 4,963,400 2,628,723 51,834,677 Retail - Local (sf) 1,700,000 424,100 95,000 2,219,100 Retail -Regional (sf) 1,000,000 1,490,000 2,490,000 Residential (units) 32,000 10,360 2,588 1,663 46,611 Hotel (rooms) 1,000 900 300 2,200 Stadium (seats) 32,000 18,000 50,000

Sources: North San Jose Area Development Policy, February 2012; Diridon Station Area Plan, April 2011; Draft EIR for Envision San Jose 2040, June 2011; Final EIR City of Santa Clara Draft 2010-2035 General Plan, January 2011; BAE, 2012.


Multifamily Rental Residential Market Trends

¨  RealFacts’ database (apartment projects larger than 50 units) identifies a total of 13 Class A (newer) projects in the Study Area as of 2nd Quarter 2012, with a total of 4,375 apartments and 5.1% vacancy rate.

¤  Most units are 1- or 2-bedroom. There are only 229 3-bedroom units, 153 studios.

¤  Average rent is $2,425/month, with an average 1-year increase of 6.3%.

n  Details on unit distribution, square footage, and average rent by type of unit, along with rent increase trends, are contained in Appendix Table E-1.

¤  By comparison, the RealFacts database for Central Santa Clara County shows 330 Class A projects with 65,576 units. The average monthly rent is $1,913 with a vacancy rate of 3.4%. The average rent increase in the past year was 11%.

¤  Occupancy in the Study Area improved from 93.3% in the 4th Quarter of 2011 to 95% in the 2nd Quarter of 2012.


Multifamily Rental Residential Market Trends, cont’d

¨  RealFacts average monthly rent trends for properties in its database for the Study Area vs. the overall Bay Area market area shown below:

¤  Census data shows that 72% of housing units in North San Jose have been built since 1990; vs. 24% in Central San Jose; 20% in the City of San Jose and County; and 17% in the Bay Area.

n  41% of multifamily units in North San Jose are in developments of 50+ units; compared to 14% in Central San Jose; 8% in the City of San Jose and Bay Area; 9% in the County.

Market Overview

San Jose and Santa Clara Class AQuarterly Trend

Average Asking Rent 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 1 Yr. Change

AVERAGE $2,024 $2,071 $2,043 $2,086 $2,282 $2,286 $2,263 $2,319 $2,425 6.3% studio $1,405 $1,466 $1,428 $1,479 $1,630 $1,585 $1,551 $1,627 $1,673 2.6% 1bd 1bth $1,722 $1,740 $1,754 $1,791 $1,966 $1,905 $1,945 $1,986 $2,097 6.6% 2bd 1bth $2,038 $1,980 $1,980 $1,989 $2,031 $2,280 $2,081 $2,099 $2,178 7.2% 2bd 2bth $2,206 $2,290 $2,217 $2,277 $2,493 $2,572 $2,481 $2,547 $2,626 5.3% 2bd TH $2,665 $2,545 $2,545 $2,545 $2,732 $2,732 $2,732 $2,643 $2,643 -3.2% 3bd 2bth $3,050 $3,032 $3,052 $3,063 $3,300 $3,067 $3,153 $3,154 $3,682 11.6% 3bd TH

Average Occupancy Rate 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 1 Yr. Change

AVERAGE 95.7% 95.4% 94.6% 96.0% 91.8% 90.3% 93.3% 94.9% 95.0% 3.4%

7/16/2012 Data source: RealFacts (415)884.2480. Data is deemed reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Page 2 of 6RealFacts Report

7/16/2012http://www.realfactsonline.com/cgi-bin/rf-report2.pl?action=report&page=print&reportTitle=San Jose and Santa Clara Class A&l...


Multifamily For-Sale Residential Market Trends

¨  Sales data in Study Area zip codes for April – June 2012 was reviewed for new condominiums built after 2004, as most representative of new developments.

¤  There were a total of 112 condo sales, with number, median price shown below. n  1-bedroom units (41): $247,000

n  2-bedroom units (38): $420,000

n  3-bedroom units (27): $405,000

n  4+ bedroom units (6): $380,000


Multifamily Residential Market Supply

¨  There are a total of 4,907 units currently under construction in North and Central San Jose, in 10 projects in the locations shown below.


Multifamily Residential Market Supply, cont’d

¨  Nearly all of these units are rental projects, reflecting the current market. Developers often map rental projects to allow future condo conversions.

¨  Of the projects under construction, 8 with 4,522 units are in North San Jose; 3 have 700+ units, with one of those (Northpointe) containing 1,750 units.

¤  8 of the projects are typical 4- or 5-story podium or wrap style buildings. However, 2 projects in North San Jose are midrise buildings, suggesting the beginning of a shift towards this product type.

¨  There are 6,652 units in 22 projects with entitlements in North and Central San Jose and Santa Clara. However, only 1,467 units have been approved since 2011, with the rest between 2007 and 2010.

¤  This suggests a number of owners in this area are waiting to see how the market evolves, or do not have the ability to proceed with projects at present.


Multifamily Residential Market Supply, cont’d

¨  An additional 1,799 units in 7 projects are pending approval in North and Central San Jose; 6 of them with 1,467 units are in Central San Jose.

¨  The current level of multifamily development activity has not been seen in the City of San Jose since the late 1990’s.

¤  The City has identified an average of just over 3,000 units/year from 2001-2006; permit data shows an average of nearly 1,649 units/year from 2005-mid 2012.

¤  Nearly 85% of new residential development has been in multifamily buildings from 2005 – 2007, and this trend is expected to continue.

¨  The City’s current projections envision a leveling off in new development to an average of approximately 2,500 units/year through 2017.


Multifamily Residential Market Demand Estimate

¨  Based on an analysis of growth projections and capture rates, there is demand over the next 20 years for 2,000 to 2,400 multifamily units at the Civic Center location.

¤  Based on current Study Area demographics and the market’s orientation to new residents, potentially 65% or more of units could be developed as rental projects.

Projected Housing Market Demand Estimate, 2010 - 2030

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 TotalProjected 5-Year Household Growth N/A 11,950 12,127 11,570 11,300 34,997 North + Central San Jose

Low Demand Capture Ratio 5% 5% 5% 5%High Demand Capture Ratio 6% 6% 6% 6%

All ResidentialLow 5-Year Demand Estimate - Units 598 606 579 565 2,300 High 5-Year Demand Estimate - Units 717 728 694 678 2,800

Multfamily Share of Demand 85% 85% 85% 85%

Multifamily ResidentialLow 5-Year Demand Estimate - Units 508 515 492 480 2,000 High 5-Year Demand Estimate - Units 609 619 590 576 2,400

Totals are rounded.Source: ABAG; BAE, 2012.


Office Market Trends

¨  CoStar data shows that the Study Area as of the 2nd Quarter of 2012 contains 10.47 million square feet of Class A space.

¤  The average rent is $28.68/year, full service, and the vacancy rate is 20.3%.

¨  During the 2nd Quarter of 2012, there was positive net absorption of 428,900 square feet. This is the highest level of absorption since the 1st Quarter of 2005.

¤  It is nearly double the 216,300 square feet of net absorption for all of 2011.

¤  This represents the highest amount of net absorption in Santa Clara County submarkets, excepting Sunnyvale.

¨  The most desirable Northern Santa Clara County submarkets, including Palo Alto and Mountain View, have minimal activity because they are essentially leased out, with no new product presently available for occupancy.

¤  This is driving leasing activity to Sunnyvale, along with Santa Clara and San Jose.


Office Market Trends, cont’d

¨  Study Area vs. County trends for asking rents and vacancy rates are shown in the following chart:

¨  Vacancy and absorption trends are even more favorable for Class B and C (existing older) space that attracts start up and smaller companies.

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Study Area Santa Clara County

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Office Market Trends, cont’d

¨  The Study Area has lagged the County in additions to new office inventory, as shown in the following chart:

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Office Market Supply

¨  There is 1.7 million square feet of new office space, including R&D, under development in the County, with 1.5 million square feet in Sunnyvale and Santa Clara.

¤  These figures do not include development by corporate users on their campuses or public agency facilities.

¨  Planned and proposed office projects in the Study Area represent slightly more than 2.5 million square feet of space.

¤  This excludes corporate users (e.g. Intel expansion), as well as ancillary uses such as retail at office development.

¤  1.4 million square feet is in a proposed Downtown office tower.

¤  Based on developer announcements, significant near-term additions are expected to be announced to the pipeline of planned and proposed projects.


Office Market Demand Estimate

¨  Based on projections for Study Area job growth by sector, and estimation of the share of office jobs and average space per job by sector, the Study Area has demand for 14.8 million square feet of space through 2030.

Basic Table Set Census, Employ, and Projections 7-26-12v2.xlsx ABAG_Office_Demand_Calc 7/29/12 11:37 PM

Projected Long-Term Demand for New Office Space, 2010-2030

Percent New Average Projected ProjectedNew Jobs Office Office Office Space Ofc. Demand Demand Per

Industry Sector 2010-2030 Jobs Jobs /Job (sf) (sf) Year (sf)

Study Area / Local Market Area

Agriculture & Natural Resources 41 26% 10 225 2,356 118Manufacturing, Transport. & Wholesale Trade 33,486 30% 10,056 180 1,810,143 90,507Retail Trade 18,166 16% 2,956 225 665,202 33,260Financial & Professional Services 43,465 74% 31,980 225 7,195,533 359,777Health, Education & Recreational Services 39,840 38% 14,997 225 3,374,352 168,718Other 21,879 53% 11,533 150 1,729,951 86,498Total 156,877 71,534 14,777,537 738,877

Sources: Association of Bay Area Governments, 2009; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; BAE, 2012.


Office Market Demand Estimate, cont’d

¨  Projection of the amount of residual demand and the share that could be captured through 2030 at the Civic Center involved the following steps:

¤  Identification of the current absorbable vacant inventory in the Study Area.

¤  Formulation of alternative assumptions for low and high vacancy rates that the market will accept while still pursuing new development.

¤  Incorporating current projections for planned and proposed office projects, less a “normal” market vacancy allowance.

¤  Deducting absorbable available inventory and net new office projects to come up with a residual demand estimate.

¤  Applying alternative capture ratios to estimate the amount of market demand for new office space at the Civic Center location.

¨  The table on the following page calculates support for 1.0 – 1.2 million square feet of new Class A office space through 2030.


Office Market Demand Estimate, cont’d

Residual Demand Calculator, Class A Office, Study Area and Civic Center

Projected Demand for Office Space, 2010-2030 (sf) 14,777,537

Vacancy VacantExisting Inventory and Vacancy, 2Q11 Inventory (sf) Rate (sf) Inventory (sf)Study Area - North & Central San Jose 10,468,602 20.3% 2,123,490Total 10,468,602 2,123,490

Calculation of Low/High Residual Demand: 7% Market Vacancy v. 10% Market Vacancy

Low Vacancy High VacancyVacancy Rate, 2Q11 20.3% 20.3%Less "Normal" Vacancy 7.0% - 10.0% -Percent Absorbable 13.3% 10.3%Existing Inventory (sf) 10,468,602 x 10,468,602 xAbsorbable Available Inventory (sf) 1,390,688 1,076,630

Planned & Proposed Net New Office (sf) 2,547,000 2,547,000Less "Normal" Vacancy 178,290 - 254,700 -Absorbable Net New Office (sf) 2,368,710 2,292,300

Projected Demand for Office Space, 2010-2030 (sf) 14,777,537 14,777,537Less Absorbable Available Inventory (sf) 1,390,688 - 1,076,630 -Less Absorbable Net New Office (sf) 2,368,710 - 2,292,300 -Residual Demand (sf) 11,018,140 11,408,608

Civic Center Location Demand Capture Ratio 10.0% 10.0%

Civic Center Demand Estimate 1,000,000 1,200,000

Final estimates are rounded.Sources: CoStar; BAE, 2012.(a) Based on CoStar data for subareas that correspond to Study Area boundaries to the extent possible.(b) It is assumed that a certain amount of "normal" vacancy will always exist. Based on observation of historicaltrends, it is assumed that between 7 to 10 percent of current and future inventory will remain vacant.


Retail Market Trends

¨  The Study Area is well served for destination retail, including regional malls and big box uses, as well as supermarkets.

¤  The Civic Center location lies within the trade area for the Westfield Valley Fair Mall, and is just over 4 miles from Santana Row.

¤  There are more than 28 large format retailers whose trade area include the Study Area, including Target, Costco, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Kohl's, Marshalls, and others.

¤  There are 3 Safeway's, a Trader Joe’s, and a proposed Whole Foods whose trade areas include part of the Civic Center location.

¨  This suggests that the greatest opportunity will be for local-serving retail, typically defined as retail within an approximately one-mile trade area.

¨  Data was obtained from Nielsen (Claritas) that identifies the current market potential for the local-serving retail trade area, and the amount of uncaptured retail spending (“leakage”).


Retail Market – Regional Retail Destinations


Retail Market – Local Area Grocery Stores


Retail Market Supply

¨  CoStar data indicates that as of the 2nd Quarter 2012 there was 504,500 square feet of retail in the Study Area.

¤  Average per square foot rental rates are $44.40/year triple net and the vacancy rate is 2.8%.

¤  These figures do not include retailer owned spaces or retail not in shopping centers or otherwise tracked by CoStar.

¨  There is minimal current absorption of retail space, with -300 square feet in the 2nd Quarter 2012. There has been less than 10,000 square feet absorption per quarter in the Study area since the 2nd Quarter 2007.

¨  Despite high rents for retail in the Study Area, and low overall vacancy, there has been modest new retail development due to economic conditions following the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent recession.


Retail Market Demand Estimate

¨  Nielsen analysis of consumer expenditures and retail sales in the 1-mile local retail trade area shows a net total of $96 million more retail spending (“injection”) than is supportable based on local population demographics.

¤  While some of this is related to employment in the area, it means modest potential for new retail at the Civic Center location based on current demand.

¤  Categories with some potential include electronics and appliances, hardware, health and personal care stores (including pharmacies), clothing, and specialty.

¨  Categories with positive potential appear to be able to support at most 25,000 to 35,000 square feet of new space at the Civic Center.

¨  Based on $11,000 local retail spending for each new household (Nielsen data) and $1,100 in local retail spending for each new worker (ICSC), the supportable multifamily residential and new office development could support an additional 80,000 to 100,000 square feet of retail.

¤  This creates total potential for 100,000 to 140,000 square feet of new retail.


Lodging Market Trends

¨  Based on Smith Travel Research full year data, the Study Area and Santa Clara County hotel markets have been flat since 2006.

¤  There have been minimal additions to room night inventory. The annual room night inventory (rooms x nights available/year) in the Study Area was 2.2 million.

¤  Except for 2009, when occupancy in the Study Area fell to 54.8% (and 58% in the County), occupancy has varied in the mid-60% range. Occupancy for hotels in the County in 2011 rose to 70.4%.

¤  Average Daily Rates (ADR) have varied more, in the Study Area from $124/night in 2007, to $104/night in 2010, and $110/night in 2011.

¨  Year-to-date data suggests improvement in the hotel market in the Study Area, with a 4.7% growth in occupancy and a 10.5% increase in ADR.

¤  The lodging market appears to be strengthening in 2012, which could lead to greater interest in new hotel development.


Lodging Market Supply & Demand Estimate

¨  The Study Area has 66 hotel rooms under construction in the Retail @ First project.

¨  There are 478 rooms of approved hotels: a Marriott Residence Inn near the Airport; and a Marriott Courtyard at North 1st Street & Highway 237.

¨  Hotel are typically built later in the economic cycle, which is why the inventory of planned and proposed projects, including those now entering the approvals process, is lagging other uses.

¨  Office, institutional, and visitor destination uses are the largest drivers of hotel room demand. The Civic Center location may be challenged for hotel uses because of convenient access to existing hotels Downtown and at the Airport.

¨  Based on supportable office development, the Civic Center location may attract between 125 to 250 rooms in the next 20 years, in 1 to 2 properties. This will most likely be in limited service/boutique hotels in the “B+/A-” range.


Appendices – Detailed Tables

¨  Appendix A: Population and Household Data (Pages 1- 3)

¨  Appendix B: Housing Supply Data (Pages 4 – 5)

¨  Appendix C: Employment and Commute Data (Pages 6 – 11)

¨  Appendix D: Projections (Page 12)

¨  Appendix E: Market Data, Including Planned & Proposed (Pages 13 - 24)

SANTA CLARA COUNTY

CIVIC CENTER MASTER PLAN:

TECHNICAL APPENDIX

1

APPENDIX A: POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD DATA

Table A-1: Population Trends, 2000-2010

% ChangeArea 2000 2010 2000-2010North San Jose (a)

Total 17,530 32,048 82.8%in Households 16,654 31,580 89.6%in Group Quarters 876 468 -46.6%

Central San Jose (b)Total 83,182 89,655 7.8%

in Households 77,947 82,917 6.4%in Group Quarters 5,235 6,738 28.7%

City of San JoseTotal 894,943 945,942 5.7%

in Households 884,079 932,620 5.5%in Group Quarters 10,864 13,322 22.6%

Santa Clara CountyTotal 1,682,585 1,781,642 5.9%

in Households 1,652,871 1,751,292 6.0%in Group Quarters 29,714 30,350 2.1%

Bay Area (c)Total 6,783,760 7,150,739 5.4%

in Households 6,640,972 7,003,059 5.5%in Group Quarters 142,788 147,680 3.4%

Notes:(a) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North1st Street between I-880 and Highway 237, and census tracts inthe City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport.See map for boundaries.(b) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and thesurrounding residential neighborhoods, approximately boundedby I-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(c) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa,Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano,and Sonoma counties.Sources: US Census, 2000, 2010; BAE, 2012.

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Table A-2: Household Trends, 2000-2010

% Change

Area 2000 2010 2000-2010

North San Jose (a) Number of Households 6,687 13,204 97.5% Average Household Size 2.49 2.39

Central San Jose (b) Number of Households 27,345 31,524 15.3% Average Household Size 2.85 2.63

City of San Jose Number of Households 276,598 301,366 9.0% Average Household Size 3.20 3.09

Santa Clara County Number of Households 565,863 604,204 6.8% Average Household Size 2.92 2.90

Bay Area (c) Number of Households 2,466,019 2,608,023 5.8% Average Household Size 2.69 2.69

Notes:(a) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1stStreet between I-880 and Highway 237, and census tracts in theCity of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. Seemap for boundaries.(b) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and thesurrouding residential neighborhoods, approximately bounded by I-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(c) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties.Sources: US Census, 2000, 2010; BAE, 2012.

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Table A-3: Age Distribution, 2000-2010

North Central City of Santa Clara Bay San Jose (a) San Jose (b) San Jose County Area (c)

Age Cohort 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010Under 18 20.0% 20.2% 23.5% 19.8% 26.4% 24.8% 24.7% 24.1% 23.6% 22.7%18-24 9.7% 7.0% 13.9% 15.6% 9.9% 9.5% 9.3% 8.9% 8.8% 8.9%25-34 26.7% 32.3% 21.3% 20.1% 18.0% 15.4% 17.8% 15.1% 16.5% 14.8%35-44 19.0% 18.6% 16.2% 15.3% 17.4% 15.8% 17.6% 15.6% 17.3% 15.1%45-54 11.4% 9.8% 10.7% 12.5% 12.4% 14.4% 13.0% 14.8% 14.2% 14.9%55-64 6.7% 6.6% 5.7% 8.6% 7.6% 10.1% 8.0% 10.4% 8.4% 11.5%65-84 5.8% 5.1% 7.4% 6.8% 7.4% 8.8% 8.5% 9.5% 9.8% 10.3%85 or older 0.7% 0.6% 1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.8%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Median Age 32.6 32.3 30.8 32.1 32.7 35.2 34.0 36.2 35.6 37.8

Notes:(a) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 and Highway 237, and censustracts in the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. See map for boundaries.(b) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods, approximately boundedby I-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(c) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara,Solano, and Sonoma counties.Sources: US Census, 2000, 2010; BAE, 2012.

Table A-4: Educational Attainment, Population Age 25+

North San Central City of Santa Clara BayEducational Attainment (a) Jose (b) San Jose (c) San Jose County Area (d)Less than 9th Grade 4.3% 13.0% 9.9% 7.4% 7.0%9th to 12th Grade, No Diploma 2.8% 10.6% 7.8% 6.3% 6.2%High School Graduate (incl. Equivalency) 11.2% 20.4% 19.4% 16.5% 18.3%Some College, No Degree 14.1% 17.2% 18.6% 17.2% 19.2%Associate Degree 5.7% 6.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.4%Bachelor's Degree 29.8% 21.4% 23.0% 25.7% 25.3%Graduate/Professional Degree 32.2% 11.6% 13.5% 19.6% 16.5%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Population 25+ with College Degree 67.7% 38.9% 44.4% 52.6% 49.3%

Notes:(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) publishes demographic estimates based on statistical sampling conductedbetween 2006-2010.(b) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 and Highway 237, and censustracts in the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. See map for boundaries.(c) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods, approximately boundedby I-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(d) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara,Solano, and Sonoma counties.Sources: ACS, 2006-2010; BAE, 2012.

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Table A-5: Household Composition, 2010

North Central City of Santa Clara BayHousehold Type (a) San Jose (b) San Jose (c) San Jose County Area (d)Non-Family Single Person 28.9% 31.2% 19.7% 21.8% 26.1% 2+ Persons 10.8% 15.0% 7.5% 7.6% 9.2%Non-Family Households 39.7% 46.1% 27.2% 29.4% 35.4%

FamilyMarried Couple 49.4% 35.5% 54.0% 54.7% 48.4%Other Family 10.9% 18.3% 18.8% 15.9% 16.2%

Family Households 60.3% 53.9% 72.8% 70.6% 64.6%

Households with Children Under 18 30.4% 11.2% 40.8% 38.4% 33.4%

Average Household Size 2.39 2.63 3.09 2.90 2.69

Notes:(a) A family is a group of two people or more related by birth, marriage, or adoption and residing together.(b) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 and Highway 237, andcensus tracts in the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. See map for boundaries.(c) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods, approximately bounded by I-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(d) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, SantaClara, Solano, and Sonoma counties.Sources: US Census, 2010; BAE, 2012.

Table A-6: Household Income

North Central City of Santa Clara BayIncome Category (a) San Jose (b) San Jose (c) San Jose County Area (d)Less than $15,000 6.6% 12.5% 7.9% 7.1% 8.7%$15,000-$24,999 5.8% 11.5% 7.0% 6.4% 7.2%$25,000-$34,999 3.3% 8.0% 6.6% 6.0% 7.0%$35,000-$49,999 6.5% 12.8% 10.3% 9.3% 10.3%$50,000-$74,999 12.2% 16.4% 15.6% 14.6% 15.9%$75,000-$99,999 15.3% 10.8% 13.4% 12.8% 12.9%$100,000-$149,999 23.1% 14.4% 19.1% 19.4% 18.0%$150,000-$199,999 14.0% 7.8% 10.1% 10.9% 9.1%$200,000 or more 13.3% 5.7% 10.1% 13.5% 10.8%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Median HH Income (e) $100,642 $57,669 $79,958 $87,966 $76,661Per Capita Income $48,335 $29,837 $33,233 $39,804 $38,593

Notes:(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) publishes demographic estimates based on statisticalsampling conducted between 2006-2010.(b) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 and Highway237, and census tracts in the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. See map for boundaries.(c) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods, approximately bounded by I-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(d) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties.(e) All incomes adjusted to 2010 dollars.Sources: ACS, 2006-2010; BAE, 2012.

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Table A-7: Household Tenure, 2010

North Central City of Santa Clara Bay San Jose (a) San Jose (b) San Jose County Area (c)

# % # % # % # % #Owners 4,494 34.0% 11,355 36.0% 176,216 58.5% 348,298 57.6% 1,465,362 56.2%Renters 8,710 66.0% 20,169 64.0% 125,150 41.5% 255,906 42.4% 1,142,661 43.8%Total HHs 13,204 100.0% 31,524 100.0% 301,366 100.0% 604,204 100.0% 2,608,023 100.0%

Notes:(a) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 and Highway 237, and census tractsin the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. See map for boundaries.(b) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods, approximately bounded byI-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(c) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano,and Sonoma counties.Sources: US Census, 2010; BAE, 2012.

%

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APPENDIX B: HOUSING SUPPLY DATA

Table B-1: Housing Units by Type of Structure

North Central City of Santa Clara BayType of Residence (a) San Jose (b) San Jose (c) San Jose County Area (d)Single Family Detached 14.3% 37.3% 55.3% 54.5% 53.7%Single Family Attached 11.2% 9.5% 10.3% 9.8% 9.2%Multifamily 2-4 Units 5.0% 12.1% 7.4% 7.7% 10.0%Multifamily 5-9 Units 2.6% 10.6% 5.4% 5.7% 6.0%Multifamily 10-49 Units 17.5% 15.3% 10.0% 10.5% 11.1%Multifamily 50+ 40.6% 14.1% 8.2% 8.8% 7.8%Mobile Home (e) 8.7% 1.1% 3.5% 3.0% 2.1%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Multifamily Housing Units 65.7% 52.1% 30.9% 32.7% 35.0%

Notes:(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) publishes demographic estimates based on statistical samplingconducted between 2006-2010.(b) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 and Highway 237,and census tracts in the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. See map forboundaries.(c) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods, approx-imately bounded by I-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(d) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties.(e) Includes both standard mobile homes and boats, RVs, vans, and other vehicles that serve as a primaryresidence.Sources: ACS, 2006-2010; BAE, 2012.

Table B-2: Housing Units by Year Built

North Central City of Santa Clara BayYear Built (a) San Jose (b) San Jose (c) San Jose County Area (d)1939 or earlier 1.5% 28.1% 5.8% 5.5% 15.8%1940 to 1949 2.4% 11.0% 3.7% 4.3% 7.6%1950 to 1959 2.1% 12.8% 11.6% 15.7% 14.3%1960 to 1969 6.8% 8.5% 19.9% 19.7% 14.9%1970 to 1979 6.2% 8.6% 24.9% 22.9% 17.9%1980 to 1989 8.9% 7.0% 14.1% 12.9% 12.6%1990 to 1999 27.8% 7.9% 10.4% 10.1% 9.0%2000 or later 44.3% 16.1% 9.5% 8.9% 8.0%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Median Year Built 1998 1958 1974 1972 1968

Notes:(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) publishes demographic estimates based on statisticalsampling conducted between 2006-2010.(b) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 andHighway 237, and census tracts in the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose InternationalAirport. See map for boundaries.(c) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods,approximately bounded by I-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(d) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, SanMateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties.Sources: ACS, 2006-2010; BAE, 2012.

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Table B-3: Housing Units and Occupancy Status, 2000-2010

North San Jose (a) Central San Jose (b)2000 2010 2000 2010

Occupancy Status # % # % # % # %Occupied Housing Units 6,687 91.8% 13,204 95.4% 27,345 96.8% 11,842 92.9%Vacant Housing Units 597 8.2% 630 4.6% 916 3.2% 904 7.1%

For Rent 324 4.4% 367 2.7% 385 1.4% 456 3.6%For Sale Only 11 0.2% 78 0.6% 58 0.2% 144 1.1%Rented or Sold, Not Occupied 58 0.8% 38 0.3% 63 0.2% 60 0.5%For Seasonal, Rec, or Occasional Use 130 1.8% 79 0.6% 137 0.5% 34 0.3%For Migratory Workers 1 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%Other 73 1.0% 68 0.5% 273 1.0% 210 1.6%

Total Housing Units 7,284 100.0% 13,834 100.0% 28,261 100.0% 12,746 100.0%

City of San Jose Santa Clara County2000 2010 2000 2010

Occupancy Status # % # % # % # %Occupied Housing Units 276,598 98.1% 301,366 96.0% 565,863 97.7% 604,204 95.6%Vacant Housing Units 5,243 1.9% 12,672 4.0% 13,466 2.3% 27,716 4.4%

For Rent 1,929 0.7% 319 0.1% 4,260 0.7% 11,519 1.8%For Sale Only 714 0.3% 2,891 0.9% 1,578 0.3% 5,067 0.8%Rented or Sold, Not Occupied 578 0.2% 922 0.3% 1,991 0.3% 2,222 0.4%For Seasonal, Rec, or Occasional Use 818 0.3% 845 0.3% 2,507 0.4% 3,000 0.5%For Migratory Workers 50 0.0% 3 0.0% 188 0.0% 50 0.0%Other 1,154 0.4% 2,439 0.8% 2,942 0.5% 5,858 0.9%

Total Housing Units 281,841 100.0% 314,038 100.0% 579,329 100.0% 631,920 100.0%

Bay Area (c)2000 2010

Occupancy Status # % # %Occupied Housing Units 2,466,019 96.6% 2,608,023 93.6%Vacant Housing Units 86,383 3.4% 177,925 6.4%

For Rent 25,272 1.0% 67,844 2.4%For Sale Only 9,469 0.4% 26,803 1.0%Rented or Sold, Not Occupied 9,471 0.4% 10,862 0.4%For Seasonal, Rec, or Occasional Use 21,211 0.8% 29,223 1.0%For Migratory Workers 415 0.0% 204 0.0%Other 20,545 0.8% 42,989 1.5%

Total Housing Units 2,552,402 100.0% 2,785,948 100.0%

Notes:(a) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 and Highway 237, and census tracts in the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. See map for boundaries.(b) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods, approximately bounded by I-880, I-280,and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(c) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonomacounties.Sources: US Census, 2000, 2010; BAE, 2012.

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APPENDIX C: EMPLOYMENT AND COMMUTE DATA

Table C-1: Employed Resident by Occupation and Industry

North Central City of Santa BaySan Jose (b) San Jose (b) San Jose Clara County Area (d)

Occupation (a) # % # % # % # % # % Management, business, science, and arts 11,163 65.6% 16,101 37.8% 188,516 42.2% 414,349 49.1% 1,537,074 44.5% Service 1,673 9.8% 8,249 19.4% 72,832 16.3% 118,257 14.0% 547,977 15.9% Sales and office 2,929 17.2% 9,203 21.6% 102,901 23.0% 181,111 21.5% 819,359 23.7% Natural resources, construction, and maintenance 472 2.8% 4,035 9.5% 36,851 8.2% 59,913 7.1% 265,244 7.7% Production, transportation, and material moving 789 4.6% 4,970 11.7% 45,862 10.3% 70,224 8.3% 286,751 8.3%Total 17,026 100.0% 42,558 100.0% 446,962 100.0% 843,854 100.0% 3,456,405 100.0%

North Central City of Santa BaySan Jose (b) San Jose (b) San Jose Clara County Area (d)

Industry (a) # % # % # % # % # %Agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, mining 12 0.1% 155 0.4% 1,247 0.3% 4,480 0.5% 26,960 0.8%Construction 438 2.6% 3,685 8.7% 30,791 6.9% 48,391 5.7% 218,190 6.3%Manufacturing 4,598 27.0% 6,038 14.2% 87,370 19.5% 166,851 19.8% 390,328 11.3%Wholesale Trade 298 1.8% 1,466 3.4% 11,807 2.6% 21,396 2.5% 97,757 2.8%Retail trade 1,302 7.6% 4,177 9.8% 46,853 10.5% 80,847 9.6% 355,892 10.3%Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities 340 2.0% 1,354 3.2% 14,504 3.2% 22,914 2.7% 149,306 4.3%Information 1,106 6.5% 1,459 3.4% 15,462 3.5% 34,058 4.0% 122,186 3.5%Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Rental/Leasing 940 5.5% 2,213 5.2% 24,365 5.5% 45,318 5.4% 264,904 7.7%Professional, Scientific, Management, & Admin 4,591 27.0% 6,474 15.2% 67,371 15.1% 149,441 17.7% 547,960 15.9%Educational, Health and Social Services 1,683 9.9% 7,282 17.1% 78,393 17.5% 152,679 18.1% 695,256 20.1%Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommod, Food 956 5.6% 4,738 11.1% 35,930 8.0% 59,604 7.1% 291,054 8.4%Other Services (except public administration) 262 1.5% 1,913 4.5% 20,534 4.6% 35,725 4.2% 168,517 4.9%Public Administration 500 2.9% 1,604 3.8% 12,335 2.8% 22,150 2.6% 128,095 3.7%Total (e) 17,026 100.0% 42,558 100.0% 446,962 100.0% 843,854 100.0% 3,456,405 100.0%

Percent Employed Residents (of Total Residents) 57.9% 50.8% 48.3% 48.5% 49.4%

Notes:(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) publishes demographic estimates based on statistical sampling conducted between 2006-2010.(b) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 and Highway 237, and census tracts in the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. See map for boundaries.(c) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods, approximately bounded by I-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(d) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties.(e) Employed residents include employed civilians, sixteen years of age and older only. This number includes employed residents who live in the geography.Sources: ACS, 2006-2010; BAE, 2012.

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Table C-2: Industry Employment by Place of Work

City of Santa Bay San Jose Clara County

Industry (a) # % # % # %Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting, and mining 753 0.2% 5,148 0.6% 27,828 0.8%Construction 28,802 7.5% 54,524 5.9% 231,711 6.6%Manufacturing 62,574 16.3% 186,922 20.3% 401,761 11.5%Wholesale Trade 10,291 2.7% 22,967 2.5% 99,731 2.9%Retail Trade 41,468 10.8% 84,983 9.2% 356,520 10.2%Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 14,891 3.9% 24,209 2.6% 154,543 4.4%Information 12,465 3.2% 39,918 4.3% 123,031 3.5%Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Rental/Leasing 21,567 5.6% 46,309 5.0% 263,680 7.6%Professional, Scientific, Mngmt, Admin & Waste Svcs 63,984 16.7% 163,950 17.8% 550,566 15.8%Educational, Health and Social Services 66,118 17.2% 168,902 18.3% 680,574 19.5%Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommod & Food Svcs 28,647 7.5% 61,366 6.7% 287,654 8.3%Other Services (except public administration) 16,942 4.4% 35,678 3.9% 167,077 4.8%Public administration 15,343 4.0% 24,874 2.7% 132,050 3.8%Armed forces 112 0.0% 750 0.1% 9,130 0.3%Total (c) 383,957 100.0% 920,500 100.0% 3,485,856 100.0%

Note:(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) publishes demographic estimates based on statistical sampling conducted between2006-2010. (b) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano,and Sonoma counties.(c) Universe consists of members of the Armed Forces and civilians 16 and older who were at work the week prior to beingsurveyed, by place of work. Total count includes all workers including self employed, and may vary from other sources ofemployment by industry data, such as EDD. Note also that in this table, not all government workers are included in publicadministration (e.g. school employees). Industry classification is self-reported by survey respondents.Sources: ACS, 2006-2010; BAE, 2012.

Area (b)

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Table C-3: Employed Resident by Industry, June 2011 and June 2012

SANTA CLARA MSA (a)Jun-11 Jun-12

Industry Number % Total Number % Total % Change

Farm 5,000 0.6% 5,000 0.5% 0.0%Natural Resources, Mining and Construction 31,500 3.5% 36,200 3.9% 14.9%Manufacturing 159,300 17.9% 160,100 17.4% 0.5%Wholesale Trade 35,600 4.0% 37,900 4.1% 6.5%Retail Trade 80,000 9.0% 82,400 8.9% 3.0%Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 12,200 1.4% 12,300 1.3% 0.8%Information 49,500 5.6% 53,000 5.7% 7.1%Financial Activities 31,900 3.6% 32,700 3.5% 2.5%Professional & Business Services 168,500 19.0% 176,900 19.2% 5.0%Educational & Health Services 116,300 13.1% 124,300 13.5% 6.9%Leisure & Hospitality 77,900 8.8% 81,300 8.8% 4.4%Other Services 24,800 2.8% 24,900 2.7% 0.4%Government 95,700 10.8% 95,100 10.3%Total (b) 888,200 100.0% 922,100 100.0% 3.8%

SANTA CLARA COUNTY2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Farm 3,900 3,700 3,500 3,500 3,400Mining and Logging 300 300 200 200 200Construction 45,500 42,800 33,400 31,400 30,600Manufacturing 163,800 165,200 153,300 151,000 155,500Wholesale Trade 39,400 39,400 35,200 34,600 35,000Retail Trade 84,600 82,700 77,100 76,800 78,200Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 13,300 13,300 11,900 11,700 11,800Information 39,500 42,200 41,500 43,800 48,900Financial Activities 36,800 34,200 31,200 30,600 31,400Professional & Business Services 176,600 178,000 160,700 161,300 168,800Educational & Health Services 102,500 107,200 108,400 112,000 116,600Leisure & Hospitality 75,300 76,600 73,500 73,800 75,200Other Services 24,600 25,000 24,100 23,900 23,900Government 94,300 94,900 93,400 91,500 89,500Total Jobs 900,400 905,500 847,400 846,100 869,000

Notes:(a) The Santa Clara MSA includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties.(b) The total jobs represent a snapshot of employment in June 2011 and June 2012, and do not reflectseasonal adjustments for employment.

Universe consists of all wage and salary employment by place of work. Does not include self-employedpersons not on payroll. Industry classification is not-self reported by individual workers. Counts mayvary from other tables due to these and other factors.

Sources: CA EDD, Current Employment Statistics Program (March 2011 Benchmark); BAE, 2012.

-0.6%

Table C-4: Major Private and Public Sector Employers in Central Santa Clara County (a), 2010

Private Sector Employers Industry Location EmployeesCisco System Inc. Information technology San Jose 17,335Apple Inc. Consumer electronics Cupertino 10,000 (b)Intel Corp. Computers Santa Clara 5,241eBay Inc. E-commerce San Jose 4,215 (b)IBM Corp. Information technology San Jose 4,000Applied Materials Inc. Semiconductors Santa Clara 3,000Nvidia Corp. Semiconductors Santa Clara 3,000AT&T Inc. Telecommunications San Jose 2,786 (b)KLA-Tencor Corp. Semiconductors Milpitas 2,095Brocade Comm. Systems Inc. IT networking San Jose 2,073Hitachi Global Storage Tech. Hard disk manufacturer San Jose 2,000 (b)Good Samaritan Hospital Hospital San Jose 1,924Abbott Pharmaceutical Santa Clara 1,900Adobe Systems Software San Jose 1,800Cadence Design Systems Inc. Electronic design San Jose 1,560 (b)AlliedBarton Security Services Security San Jose 1,500Sanmina-SCI Corp. Electronic Manufacturer San Jose 1,499Agilent Technologies Inc. Measurement tools Santa Clara 1,450Regional Medical Center of San Jose Hospital San Jose 1,450Altera Corp. Semiconductors San Jose 1,300

Public Sector EmployersCounty of Santa Clara County government San Jose 15,481City of San Jose Municipal government San Jose 5,910US Postal Service Shipping and mailing San Jose 3,921San Jose Unified School District School district San Jose 2,690 (b)Santa Clara Unified School District School district Santa Clara 2,400Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority Transportation San Jose 1,990San Jose State University State University San Jose 1,910East Side Union High School District School district San Jose 1,754Cupertino Union School District School district Cupertino 1,679Santa Clara University Private University Santa Clara 1,318

Notes:(a) Central Santa Clara County includes City of Santa Clara, San Jose, Cupertino, & Milpitas.(b) Estimate gathered from Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal research.Sources: Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal; BAE, 2012.

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Table C-5: Resident Employment, June 2012

Number of Workers UnemploymentGeography

Table C-6: Commute Time, 2010 (a)

Employed In Labor Force Rate (a)

Santa Clara County 837,800 917,500 8.7%Bay Area (b) 3,444,300 3,772,100 8.7%

Notes:(a) Data are not seasonally adjusted.(b) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin,Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonomacounties.Sources: CA EDD; BAE, 2012.

North Central City of Santa Clara BaySan Jose (b) San Jose (c) San Jose County Area (d)

Travel Time (a) Workers Percent Workers Percent Workers Percent Workers Percent Workers PercentLess than 15 minutes 5,806 35.3% 10,931 66.5% 82,302 10.0% 178,857 21.8% 730,803 21.7%15 to 29 minutes 6,984 42.5% 18,425 112.1% 182,142 22.2% 343,929 41.9% 1,141,125 33.9%30 minutes to 44 minutes 2,333 14.2% 6,567 40.0% 100,389 12.2% 167,827 20.4% 710,998 21.1%45 minutes to 59 minutes 320 1.9% 1,711 10.4% 27,738 3.4% 48,663 5.9% 287,559 8.5%60 minutes to 89 minutes 376 2.3% 2,008 12.2% 18,962 2.3% 32,441 4.0% 236,939 7.0%90 minutes or more 203 1.2% 533 3.2% 6,517 0.8% 11,838 1.4% 73,956 2.2%Worked at Home 410 2.5% 1,479 3.6% 16,321 2.0% 37,267 4.5% 182,255 5.4%

Total 16,432 100.0% 41,654 248.0% 434,371 52.9% 820,822 100.0% 3,363,635 100.0%

Notes:(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) publishes demographic estimates based on statistical sampling conducted between 2006-2010.(b) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 and Highway 237, and census tracts in the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. See map for boundaries.(c) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods, approximately bounded by I-880, I-280, andHighway 101. See map for boundaries.(d) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties.Sources: ACS, 2006-2010; BAE, 2012.

10

Table C-7: Commute Flows

Residents of Central (b) and North San Jose (c) Workers in Central (b) and North San Jose (c)

Place of Work Number % Total Place of Residence Number % TotalIn Central or North San Jose 11,406 24.1% In Central or North San Jose 11,406 6.7%Other Locations in San Jose 7,116 15.0% Other Locations in San Jose 56,485 33.2%Outside of San Jose 28,845 60.9% Outside of San Jose 102,117 60.1%Total Employed Residents 47,367 100.0% Total Jobs 170,008 100.0%

Notes:(a) Employment data represent civilian jobs in which a worker has been employed during the first and secondquarter of 2010.(b) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods, approximatelybounded by I-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(c) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 and Highway 237, andcensus tracts in the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. See map for boundaries.Source: US Census Local Employment Dynamics, 2012; BAE, 2012.

Table C-8: Means of Transportation to Work, Workers Age 16+

North Central City of Santa Clara BayMeans of Transportation (a) San Jose (b) San Jose (c) San Jose County Area (d)Drove Alone (excluding Motorcycle) 77.2% 70.1% 77.6% 76.8% 67.4%Carpooled 11.3% 9.1% 11.0% 10.2% 10.7%Bus or Trolley Bus 1.4% 4.5% 2.5% 2.2% 5.5%Other Public Transportation 2.4% 2.8% 1.0% 1.1% 4.6%Bicycle 1.2% 1.7% 0.8% 1.4% 1.4%Walked 3.1% 5.6% 1.9% 2.2% 3.6%Other Means 0.9% 2.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4%Worked at Home 2.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.5% 5.4%Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Workers Who Traveled to Workon Public Transportation or 8.9% 17.3% 7.7% 8.4% 16.5%Non-Motorized Transportation (e)

Notes:(a) The American Community Survey (ACS) publishes demographic estimates based on statistical sampling conductedbetween 2006-2010.(b) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 and Highway 237, andcensus tracts in the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. See map for boundaries.(c) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods, approximatelybounded by I-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(d) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara,Solano, and Sonoma counties.(e) Excludes those who drove alone, carpooled, or worked at home.Sources: ACS, 2006-2010; BAE, 2012.

11

12

APPENDIX D: PROJECTIONS

Table D-1: Projected Population, Housing Units and Employment Growth, 2010-2035

% ChangePopulation 2010 (a) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010-2035North San Jose (b) 29,624 43,461 56,349 71,273 84,986 98,546 232.7%Central San Jose (c) 101,065 120,606 137,369 152,880 168,372 183,831 81.9%City of San Jose 981,000 1,063,600 1,137,700 1,219,500 1,299,700 1,380,900 40.8%Santa Clara County 1,822,000 1,945,300 2,063,100 2,185,800 2,310,800 2,431,400 33.4%Bay Area (d) 7,341,700 7,677,500 8,018,000 8,364,900 8,719,300 9,073,700 23.6%

HouseholdsNorth San Jose 12,574 18,285 24,171 30,380 36,258 41,852 232.8%Central San Jose 34,106 40,345 46,586 51,947 57,369 62,541 83.4%City of San Jose 305,140 330,390 356,470 382,900 409,640 435,110 42.6%Santa Clara County 614,000 653,810 696,530 739,820 785,090 827,330 34.7%Bay Area 2,667,340 2,784,690 2,911,000 3,039,910 3,171,940 3,302,780 23.8%

EmploymentNorth San Jose 104,851 129,657 155,774 179,728 203,392 231,448 120.7%Central San Jose 74,079 81,978 97,668 114,759 132,415 147,396 99.0%City of San Jose 369,500 425,100 493,060 562,350 633,700 708,980 91.9%Santa Clara County 906,270 981,230 1,071,980 1,177,520 1,292,490 1,412,620 55.9%Bay Area 3,475,840 3,734,590 4,040,690 4,379,900 4,738,730 5,107,390 46.9%

Notes:(a) ABAG estimates were prepared before the 2010 Census and therefore may diverge from actual population counts.(b) North San Jose includes the census tracts adjacent to North 1st Street between I-880 and Highway 237, and census tracts in the City of Santa Clara north of the San Jose International Airport. See map for boundaries.(c) Central San Jose includes downtown San Jose and the surrounding residential neighborhoods, approximatelybounded by I-880, I-280, and Highway 101. See map for boundaries.(d) The nine-county Bay Area includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara,Solano, and Sonoma counties.Sources: ABAG, 2009; BAE, 2012.

APPENDIX E: MARKET DATA

Table E-1: Rental Housing Market Overview, Study Area, Second Quarter 2012

Study Area Class A Current Market Overview (2Q 2012) (a)

Number Avg. Avg.Unit Type of Units Size (sf) Avg. Rent Rent/sfStudio 153 529 $1,673 $3.161BR/1BA 1,746 762 $2,097 $2.751BR/1.5BA 102 1,073 $2,193 $2.042BR/1BA 65 946 $2,178 $2.302BR/2BA 2,021 1,136 $2,626 $2.312BR/2.5BA 43 1,221 $2,639 $2.162BR TH 16 1,434 $2,643 $1.843BR/1.5BA 3 2,658 $7,845 $2.953BR/2BA 224 1,657 $3,682 $2.223BR/3BA 2 3,169 $9,006 $2.84Total 4,375 992 $2,425 $2.44

Average Rent History

Avg. Annual Avg. Annual% Change % Change

Unit Type 2004 2007 2004-2007 2012 2007-2012Studio $1,320 $1,470 3.7% $1,650 2.3%1BR/1BA $1,466 $1,739 5.9% $2,041 3.3%2BR/1BA $1,696 $2,023 6.1% $2,138 1.1%2BR/2BA $1,862 $2,293 7.2% $2,587 2.4%2BR TH $2,244 $2,500 3.7% $2,643 1.1%3BR/2BA $2,593 $2,887 3.6% $3,418 3.4%Average $1,691 $2,012 6.0% $2,372 3.3%

Average Occupancy and Vacancy Rates

Avg. Avg.Year Occupancy Vacancy2004 81.5% 18.5%2005 91.6% 8.4%2006 94.6% 5.4%2007 94.6% 5.4%2008 92.4% 7.6%2009 92.3% 7.7%2010 95.2% 4.8%2011 92.8% 7.2%2012 94.9% 5.1%

Note:(a) Data captures Class A rental complexes with over 50 units in the Study Area, whichapproximately includes areas east and west of North 1st Street from Highway 237 to I-280. See map for boundaries.Sources: RealFacts; BAE, 2012.

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Table E-2: Sale Price Distribution of Single-Family Residences and Condominiums by Number of Bedrooms, April-June 2012

Number of Units SoldSale Price Range (a) 1 BRs 2 BRs 3 BRs 4+ BRs Total % Total

Single-Family Residences

Less than $300,000 3 35 21 7 66 22.6%$300,000-$399,999 0 14 38 14 66 22.6%$400,000-$499,999 0 14 21 11 46 15.8%$500,000-$599,999 0 4 27 20 51 17.5%$600,000-$699,999 1 3 15 16 35 12.0%$700,000-$799,999 0 3 3 10 16 5.5%$800,000-$899,999 0 1 5 4 10 3.4%$900,000-$999,999 0 0 0 1 1 0.3%$1,000,000 or more 0 0 0 1 1 0.3%Total 4 74 130 84 292 100.0%% Total 1.4% 25.3% 44.5% 28.8% 100.0%

Median Sale Price $271,500 $313,750 $415,000 $556,500 $419,500Average Sale Price $354,500 $357,341 $447,830 $536,240 $449,052Average Size (sf) 685 $1,114 $1,407 $2,040 $1,505Average Price/sf $518 $321 $318 $263 $298

Condominiums Built After 2004

Less than $200,000 15 5 0 0 20 17.9%$200,000-$299,999 9 4 5 0 18 16.1%$300,000-$399,999 11 4 8 5 28 25.0%$400,000 or more 6 25 14 1 46 41.1%Total 41 38 27 6 112 100.0%% Total 36.6% 33.9% 24.1% 5.4% 100.0%

Median Sale Price $247,000 $420,000 $405,000 $380,000 $380,000Average Sale Price $278,216 $395,009 $439,037 $402,833 $363,288Average Size (sf) $884 $1,291 $1,460 $1,804 $1,210Average Price/sf $315 $306 $301 $223 $300

(a) Consists of all full and verified sales of single-family residences and condominiums in the 95002,95134, 95131, 95050, 95110, 95112, 95113, 95133, and 95116 ZIP codes between 4/1/12 and 6/31/12.Sources: DataQuick; BAE, 2012.

Table E-3: Hotel Market Overview, Market Area and Santa Clara County, 2006 - May 2012 (a) (b)

Occupancy Rate Average Daily Rate Room Night Inventory (Supply)Market Santa Clara Market Santa Clara Market % Santa Clara %

Year Area (a) County Diff. Area (a) County Diff. Area (a) Change County Change2006 65.5% 68.3% -2.7% $112 $108 $5 2,169,925 9,404,299 2007 67.4% 69.9% -2.5% $124 $119 $5 2,156,350 -0.6% 9,361,762 -0.5%2008 64.2% 66.1% -1.9% $126 $124 $2 2,169,925 0.6% 9,339,119 -0.2%2009 54.8% 58.0% -3.1% $106 $104 $2 2,169,925 0.0% 9,294,449 -0.5%2010 62.2% 66.4% -4.3% $104 $104 $0 2,169,925 0.0% 9,351,668 0.6%2011 64.6% 70.4% -5.8% $110 $113 -$2 2,218,861 2.3% 9,407,482 0.6%

Notes:(a) The Study Area approximately includes areas east and west of North 1st Street from Highway 237 to I-280. See map for boundaries.(b) Room night inventory represents the total number of rooms times the number of days in a calendar year.Sources: Smith Travel Research; BAE, 2012.

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15

Table E-4: Class A Office, Average Rent and Vacancy Rate, Study Area and Santa Clara County, 2007-2012

Table E-5: Class A Office, Net Absorption, Study Area and Santa Clara County, 2007-2012

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

$1.50

$1.75

$2.00

$2.25

$2.50

$2.75

$3.00

$3.25

$3.50

$3.75

$4.00

$4.25

$4.50

$4.75

$5.00

Vac

ancy

Rat

e

Avg

. Ask

ing

Ren

t Ful

l Svc

. ($/

sf/m

o)


Asking Rent

Vacancy Rate

(800,000)

(600,000)

(400,000)

(200,000)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Net

Abs

orpt

ion

(sf)


Table E-6: Class A Office Inventory, Study Area and Santa Clara County, 2007-2012

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Tota

l Inv

ento

ry (

sf)


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Table E-7: Multi-family Rental Housing Comparables, May 2012

Name/Address Do Residents Stations Do Residents Place of Where do Residents Age Where Residents Cars Vacancy TurnoverStories/Year Built Use VTA? Used Work Nearby Work Come From Breakdown Shop per HH Rate Rate

Multifamily Rental in Study Area (a)

The Sycamores at North Park3500 Palmilla Small percentage of Baypointe Majority of residents Cisco More than 50% are from Corporate 5% Rivermark Village 1-2 4% 30%San Jose, CA 95134 people use VTA 1st and Tasman work nearby. out of state/international Families 10% at Montague Expy(408) 570-5060 mostly drive bus stop Many are walking The rest are from (note: Sycamores & De La Cruz Blvd

walk to Cisco Montegue Expy distance from work. different only have 1 & 2 Safeway, bank, google shuttle parts of the Bay Area bd. Higher % of fam restuarantsCisco shuttle North Park Comm. w/eBay shuttle 3 bd units have higher

% of family)Gen Y 70%Empty nesters 15%

Three Sixty Residences360 South Market Street Many people who work Some work in the Large tech Out of state About 55% are Santana Row Majority 3.30% Just startedSan Jose, CA on the peninsula use it peninsula firms middle-aged Safeway on 2nd st have leasing888-824-3101 but majority drive the rest work around professionals at least 2 doesn't

around San Jose San Jose 25% young prof cars know yetBig tech firms are not 15% Familyextremely close by 5% Senior

550 Moreland550 Moreland Way Not many even River Oaks 90% work nearby Yahoo, Cisco, East coast, the South, young prof 80% 10 min drive from More than 3.26% 20%Santa Clara, CA 95054 though it's close Orchard Yahoo, Cisco, Ebay, eBay, Midwest, Japan, family 18% two major malls: one car 7 vacant(408) 727-6200 20% at the most and Google Google, Intel, Australia, Canada senior %2 Santana Row per HH; units

People use corprate all have nearby Apple 10% of professionals Valley Fair Mall couplesshuttles offices Stanford, are corporate 24 hr Safeway next oftencars or walk to work Facebook relocation door have 2

Samsung cars

Note:Source: BAE, interviews with property managers and leasing agents conducted July 2012.

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Table E-8: Class A Office Properties, July 2012

Total Size (gsf)Name/Address Typical Floor Size Current Asking Rent ($/sf) Min DivisibleStories/Year Built Vacancy Rate Addt'l Charges ($/sf) Max Contiguous Parking Details

In Market Area

1745 Technology Drive 216,000 sf $27.00/sf/yr (NNN) 216,000 sf 399 covered spaces San Jose Airport submarketSan Jose, CA 95110 27,000 sf $5.40/sf/yr - operations 216,000 sf Parking ratio (2.00/1,000 sf) Fitness center and food court8 stories, built 2000 0% vacancy rate $4.79/sf/yr - tax on-s9te

200 E. Santa Clara St 530,000 sf Not available 0 sf 500 covered spaces Downtown San Jose EastSan Jose, CA 95112 29,444 sf 0 sf Parking ratio (0.94/1,000 sf) submkaret18 stories, built 2005 0% vacancy rate

225 W. Santa Clara St 348,754 sf $36/sf/year (FS) 1,567 sf 850 covered spaces Downtown San Jose EastSan Jose, CA 95113 27,402 sf $4.45/sf/yr - tax 10,709 sf Parking ratio (2.50/1,000 sf) submkaret14 stories, built 2001 5% vacancy rate

300 Park Avenue 318,372 sf $27/sf/yr (NNN) 18,372 sf 735 covered spaces Downtown San Jose EastSan Jose, CA 95110 18,750 sf $1.65/sf/yr - tax 318,372 sf Parking ratio (4.00/1,000 sf) submkaret16 stories, built 2009 100% vacancy rate Currently leasing

Sources: CoStar; BAE, 2012

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Table E-9: Currently Leasing Class A Retail Properties, July 2011

Total Size (rsf)Name/Address Retail Space for Lease (rsf) Asking Rent ($/sf) Min DivisibleStories/Year Built Sub-type Vacancy Rate CAM Max Contiguous Parking Details

In Market Area

San Pedro Square Storefront retail 28,492 sf retail131-145 W. Santa Clara St and office in Space: 4,129 sf $4.25/sf/month (NNN) 4,129 sf None Co-tenants: Starbucks and LaSan Jose, CA 95113 downtown San 14.5% vacancy rate CAM not published 4,129 sf Adjacent to city Victoria Mexican Restaurant3 stories, renovated 2010 Jose parking lot

535-615 Coleman Ave Power center 118,243 sf retail $3.75/sf/month (NNN) 1,785 sf 824 free Anchor tenants: Cost San Jose, CA 95110 Space: 4,571 sf CAM not published 2,786 sf surface spaces Plus, Marshalls1 story, built 2006 3.9% vacancy rate

695 Coleman Ave Power center 6,155 sf retail $3-3.75/sf/month (NNN)1,458 sf Free surface Co-tenants: Stabucks, San Jose, CA 95110 Free-standing Space: 1,458 sf CAM not published 1,458 sf spaces Subway, Jamba Juice1 story, built 2005 building 23.7% vacancy rate

3935 Rivermark Plaza Community 14,464 sf retail $4.00/sf/month (NNN) 1,546 sf 541 free Anchor tenant: SafewaySanta Clara, CA 95054 center Space: 1,546 sf CAM not published 1,546 sf surface spaces Co-tenants: Peets Coffee, 1 story, built 2003 10.7% vacancy rate Quizno's

Sources: CoStar; BAE, 2012

Table E-10: Development Potential, July 2012

Santa ClaraNorth Downtown Caltrain/SJ

San Jose San Jose (a) Diridon (b) Airport (c) Total

Office/Industrial/R&D (sf) 26,700,000 17,542,553 4,963,400 2,628,723 51,834,677Retail - Local (sf) 1,700,000 424,100 95,000 2,219,100 Retail -Regional (sf) 1,000,000 1,490,000 2,490,000 Residential (units) 32,000 10,360 2,588 1,663 46,611 Hotel (rooms) 1,000 900 300 2,200 Stadium (seats) 32,000 18,000 50,000

Notes:(a) The San Jose Envision 2040 general plan anticipates an additional 48,500 commercial, industrial, jobs and institutional jobs in the Downtown area. The EIR calculated average of 361 square feet per job was applied to determine total square footage.(b) The figures for this analysis are taken from the preferred alternative for the Diridon Station Area Plan,and do not represent the actual entitlements currently allowed. A draft EIR is underway, and these figuresrepresent the 100% maximum build-out under the preferred alternative for parcels that are city-owned, private and underutilized, and parcels that are private, fully-utilized, but with inappropriate uses.(c) This area includes the Santa Clara Station Plan Area, and the city-owned land west of the San JoseAirport on Coleman Avenue. Under the Santa Clara general plan, the total development potential at the Santa Clara Station Plan Area is 2.0 million square feet of non-residential space, which includes office,retail, and hotel. The City of San Jose anticipates the area south of the station will accommodate another 1.600 jobs. The EIR calculated average was applied to determine office square footage. In thevicinity, the City of San jose also owns 75 acres of land west of the San Jose Airport on Coleman Avenue.An 18,000-seat seat stadium was approved on a portion of the site in February 2012. Other approved usesinclude the development of 1.5 million square feet of office/R&D, 300 hotel rooms, and 95,000 square feetof retail.Sources: North San Jose Area Development Policy, February 2012; Diridon Station Area Plan, April 2011; Draft EIR for Envision San Jose 2040, June 2011; Final EIR City of Santa Clara Draft 2010-2035 General Plan, January 2011; BAE, 2012.

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Table E-11: Planned and Proposed Residential Development, North and Central San Jose, July 2012

Plan Single/ DateProject Name (a) Location Area Multi-Fam Units Approved Floors

Projects Under Construction

Fiesta Senior W. San Carlos/Buena Vista SJ Central MF 127 8/25/04 4Fourth Street Apartments N. 4th and Gish SJ North MF 100 6/29/07 4Mosaic Apartments 500 Race Street SJ Central MF 385 7/23/07 4Northpoint Mixed Use Zanker and Tasman SJ North MF 704 11/30/07 4Baypoint Apartments North Baypointe and Tasman SJ North MF 183 11/30/07 4Baypoint Apartments South Baypointe and Tasman SJ North MF 174 8/1/08 14Crescent Village Apartments Zanker and River Oaks SJ North MF 1,750 1/15/09 4Epic Apartments River Oaks and Seely SJ North MF 769 1/23/09 5Riverview Mixed Use Phase 1 N. 1st and Rio Robles SJ North MF 271 8/2/11 6Vista Montana Park Vista Montana by Tasman SJ North MF 444 10/14/11 9Subtotal 4,907

Approved Projects

22nd and William Housing William and S. 24th SJ Central SF 67 6/29/07The Carlysle Condos N. Almaden/W. St. John SJ Central MF 347 12/7/07Hyundai Site Mixed Use Montague by N. 1st SJ North MF 528 12/14/07Riverview Mixed Use N. 1st and Rio Robles SJ North MF 1308 4/4/08Park Avenue Lofts Park and Sunol SJ Central SF 125 4/21/08Morrison Park Townhomes Cinnabar and Stockton SJ Central SF 250 8/1/08Virginia Terrace Condos E. Virginia and S. 6th SJ Central MF 238 10/24/08South 2nd Mixed Use S. 2nd and Keyes SJ Central MF 134 11/14/08River Oaks Housing Zanker and River Oaks SJ North MF 293 12/19/08San Carlos Mixed Use W. San Carlos/Meridian SJ Central SF 218 6/8/09Century Center Mixed Use 2 N. 1st and Century Center SJ North MF 220 8/25/09Donner Lofts E. St. John and N. 4th SJ Central MF 156 10/9/09North Tenth Street Housing N. 10th and Vestal SJ Central SF 166 11/17/09Westmount Square E. Mission and N. 10th SJ Central SF 60 11/30/09Sobrato Residences 1270 Campbell Avenue Santa Clara MF 140 2/9/10Japantown Senior N. 6th and E. Taylor SJ Central MF 85 5/7/10Edwards Mixed Use Edwards and S. 1st SJ Central MF 50 7/2/10Ohlone Mixed Use W. San Carlos and Sunol SJ Central MF 800 11/9/10Libitzky Mised Use N. 10th and E. Taylor SJ Central MF 403 1/25/11Century Center Mixed Use 1 N. 1st and Century Center SJ North MF 220 4/29/11Rosemary Family/Senior N. 1st and Rosemary SJ North MF 290 8/26/11Tasman Apartments Vista Montana by Tasman SJ North MF 554 10/14/11Subtotal 6,652

Pending Approval

Corp Yard Mixed Use Jackson and N. 6th SJ Central SF 600River Oaks Apartments River Oaks and Research SJ North MF 450San Pedro Condos N. San Pedro and Bassett SJ Central MF 240The 88 Condos (Phase 2) E. San Fernando/S. 2nd SJ Central MF 204North San Pedro Apartments Highway 87 and Bassett SJ Central MF 135Ajisai Gardens Apartments E. Taylor and N. 7th SJ Central MF 100Race Street Terrace Race and Grand SJ Central MF 70Subtotal 1,799

Total Housing Units Under Construction, Planned, and Proposed 13,358

Note:(a) Includes all major residential development activity for projects with 50 or more dwelling units submitted to the City of San Josesince January 1, 2007, and to the City of Santa Clara.Sources: City of San Jose; City of Santa Clara; BAE, 2012.

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Table E-12: Planned and Proposed Hotel Development, North and Central San Jose, July 2012

Plan DateProject Name (a) Location Area Type Rooms Approved Notes


Retail @ First N. 1st and Headquarters North Hotel 66 4/4/08Subtotal 66

Approved Projects

Marriott Residence Inn N. 1st and Skyport North Hotel 321 2/10/09Courtyard Marriott @ First N. 1st and Highway 237 North Hotel 157 4/20/11Subtotal 478

Pending Approval

- Subtotal -

Total Hotel RoomsUnder Construction, Planned, and Proposed 544

Sources: City of San Jose; City of Santa Clara; BAE, 2012.

Table E-13: Planned and Proposed Retail Development, North and Central San Jose, July 2012

Plan Area DateProject Name (a) Location Area Type (SF) Approved Other uses


Vietnam Town Shopping Story and McLaughlin SJ Central Retail 300,000 9/5/06Northpointe Mixed Use Zanker and Tasman SJ North MU 25,000 11/30/07 704 res. unitsRetail @ First N. 1st & Headquarters SJ North Retail/Hotel 73,000 4/4/08 66 hotel roomsSubtotal 398,000

Approved Projects

Whole Foods Market The Alameda & Stockton SJ Central Retail 44,000 9/28/07Riverview Mixed Use N. 1st and Rio Robles SJ North MU 45,000 4/4/08Ohlone Mixed Use W. San Carlos and Sunol SJ Central MU 30,000 11/9/10 825 res. unitsSun Garden Retail Monterey and E. Alma SJ Central Retail 257,000 10/21/11Subtotal 376,000

Pending Approval

Corp Yard Mixed Use Jackson and N. 6th SJ Central MU 30,000 600 res. unitsThe 88 Condos E. San Fernando, S. 2nd SJ Central MU 27,000 204 res. unitsStevens Creek Gateway Stevens Creek/DiSalvo SJ Central Office/Retail 8,000 Former FMC Site 1105-1125 Coleman Ave SJ North Retail 8,200 Office/parkingSubtotal 73,200

Total Retail SF Under Construction, Planned, and Proposed 847,200

Note:(a) Includes all major commercial development activity for projects with 25,000+ SF submitted to the City of San Jose since 01/01/07, and to the City of Santa Clara.Sources: City of San Jose; City of Santa Clara; BAE, 2012.

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Table E-14: Planned and Proposed Office Development, North and Central San Jose, July 2012

Plan Area DateProject Name (a) Location Area (SF) Approved Notes


- Subtotal -

Approved Projects

Intel SC-13 2250 Mission College Blvd Santa Clara 100,000 UnknownYerba Buena/Irvine 5351 Great American Pkway Santa Clara 911,000 4/25/20003Com/Cognac 5402 Great American Pkway Santa Clara 278,000 5/22/20072350 Mission College 2350 Mission College Blvd Santa Clara 300,000 4/21/2009 Parking and retailSubtotal 1,589,000

Pending Approval

2433 N. 1st Street N. 1st St & Component Dr. SJ North 1,421,000 2121 Laurelwood 2121 Laurelwood Santa Clara 194,000 8-story office towerStevens Creek Gateway Stevens Creek and DiSalvo SJ Central 21,000 Former FMC Site 1105-1125 Coleman Ave SJ North 674,832 Add'l retail and parkingSubtotal 2,310,832

Total Commercial SF Under Constr., Planned, and Proposed 3,899,832

Note:(a) Includes all major commercial development activity for projects with 25,000+ SF submitted to the City of San Jose since 01/01/07 and to the City of Santa Clara.Sources: City of San Jose; City of Santa Clara; BAE, 2012.

Table E-15: Residential Permit Activity, San Jose, 2005-2011

Single- Multi- % Single- % Multi-Calendar Year Family Family Total Family Family

2005 831 1,951 2,782 29.9% 70.1%2006 611 2,362 2,973 20.6% 79.4%2007 462 1,708 2,170 21.3% 78.7%2008 254 1,716 1,970 12.9% 87.1%2009 75 232 307 24.4% 75.6%2010 78 2,386 2,464 3.2% 96.8%2011 107 939 1,046 10.2% 89.8%2012 (thru 6/12) 78 1,899 1,977 3.9% 96.1%

Average (2005-2012) 15.8% 84.2%

Source: City of San Jose; BAE, 2012.

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Table E-16: Overnight Room Stay Demand Generators, Central Santa Clara County (a), 2010

Demand Generators Notes (b)Good Samaritan Hospital (San Jose) 88,000 annual patient daysSanta Clara Valley Medical Center (San Jose) 126,000 annual patient daysSantana Row/Valley Fair (San Jose) Over 2.0 million sf combined retailWinchester Mystery House (San Jose)Santa Clara University 9,000 full-time studentsDowntown San Jose Details belowTriton Museum of Art (Santa Clara) 175,000 annual visitorsNorman Y. Mineta San Jose Int'l Airport 8.2 million annual passengersSanta Clara Convention Center 302,000 sf meeting spaceCA's Great America Theme Park (Santa Clara)

Attractions in Downtown San Jose

Children's Discovery Museum 300,000 annual visitorsSan Jose Convention Center 272,000 sf meeting spaceSan Jose Center for Performing ArtsHP Pavilion 280,000 sf meeting space;

seats up to 20,000Ballet San Jose 64,000 annual attendeesTech Museum of Innovation 446,000 annual visitorsSan Jose State University 24,000 full-time studentsSan Jose Repertory Theater 100,000 annual attendeesSan Jose Museum of Art 89,000 annual visitorsOpera San Jose (California Theater) 76,000 annual attendees

Notes:(a) Central Santa Clara County includes City of Santa Clara, San Jose, Cupertino, andMilpitas.(b) All performance figures are reported for 2009.Sources: Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal; City of San Jose, 2010; BAE, 2012.

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