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  • S P E C I A L R E P O R T

    Sabrient Bakers Dozen

    2017

    Ninth Annual Report January 17, 2017

    Sabrient Systems, LLC

    350 South Hope Avenue, Suite A-104

    Santa Barbara, CA 93105

    www.SabrientSystems.com

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    Copyright 2017 by Sabrient Systems, LLC All rights reserved.

    Reproduction or translation of any of this work beyond that permitted by Section 107 or 108 of the 1976

    United States Copyright Act without the permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Requests for

    permission or further information should be addressed to [email protected].

    Disclaimer: This Special Report is provided for informational purposes only. It should not be

    construed as a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell securities. This document is not intended to

    provide investment advice. SABRIENT and SABRIENT BAKERS DOZEN are trademarks of

    Sabrient Systems, LLC (Sabrient). NEITHER SABRIENT NOR ITS AFFILIATES GIVE ANY

    EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES

    OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE OR ANY

    WARRANTY OF THE ADEQUACY, ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION

    OR THE SELECTION PROCESS ON WHICH THE SELECTION OF THE SECURITIES INCLUDED

    IN THE PORTFOLIO IS BASED. SABRIENT AND ITS AFFILIATES SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR

    ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, EXEMPLARY, COMPENSATORY, PUNITIVE, SPECIAL

    OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, COSTS, EXPENSES, LEGAL FEES, OR LOSSES (INCLUDING

    LOST INCOME OR PROFITS AND OPPORTUNITY COSTS) EVEN IF THEY HAVE BEEN

    ADVISED OF THE POSSIBLITY OF SUCH DAMAGES, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, TORT, STRICT

    LIABILITY, OR OTHERWISE IN CONNECTION WITH ANY USE OF THIS REPORT. Sabrients

    opinions regarding selection of securities for the Sabrient Bakers Dozen are not statements of fact or

    recommendations to purchase, hold or sell securities, and are based upon many assumptions that

    may vary from the conditions that will actually exist over time. Sabrients opinions do not address the

    suitability of investment in securities as an investment by any prospective investor, and should not be

    relied on as investment advice. Sabrients methodology relies upon information provided by third

    parties and, while it is believed to be reliable, it is not guaranteed by the providers to be accurate. The

    past performance of Sabrients previous Bakers Dozen portfolios does not necessarily predict future

    results. There is no assurance that an investment in the portfolio will provide positive investment

    returns. Sabrient is not an investment advisor to, and is not providing investment advice to, any

    investor with respect to the portfolio.

    Sabrient Systems, LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Sabrient Systems LLCs advisory services can be found in its Form ADV which is available upon request.

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    INTRODUCTION

    The Sabrients Bakers Dozen portfolio was introduced in January 2009 and has been

    launched every January since then. The Bakers Dozen strategy seeks stocks that we believe

    exhibit strong earnings growth potential relative to their peers, trade at an attractive valuation

    for the projected growth, display particularly high earnings quality and sustainability, and

    generally appear to be well-positioned to outperform the benchmark going forward.

    The final stock selections represent a cross-section of sectors and industries, and each stock

    scores particularly well in our model. For a more detailed look at our stock selection strategy,

    see page 10.

    Below is a chart that summarizes the annual performance of the Bakers Dozen Model

    Portfolio against the S&P 500 Index. The portfolio has produced returns exceeding the

    returns of the Index for six out of eight years, and by an average of over 1100 basis points

    (11 percentage points) per year over the eight-year period.

    Past portfolios can be viewed on our Bakers Dozen website at http://BakersDozen.Sabrient.com.

    NOTES:

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    Portfolio performance reported above is based upon simple price returns on an equal-weighted portfolio of thirteen stock holdings and does not include cash dividends.

    For 2009 through 2012, entry prices for the portfolio holdings are assumed at the closing prices for the last trading day preceding the roll-out of the reported portfolio and exit prices are as of the closing dates for the roll-out of the next portfolio for the following year, as reflected in the table below. While the portfolios were rolled-out consistent with the beginning of the calendar years for 2009 - 2012, beginning in 2013 and each year thereafter, the roll-out dates were moved to mid-January and the entry prices are assumed at the closing prices on the day of the roll-out. The 2016 portfolio is still open and 2016 returns shown in the chart above are through December 30, 2016. S&P performance returns have been adjusted to correspond with the same entry and exit dates as used for the model portfolio.

    Entry Exit

    Year Date Date

    2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2009

    2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2010

    2011 12/31/2010 12/30/2011

    2012 12/30/2011 1/11/2013

    2013 1/11/2013 1/13/2014

    2014 1/13/2014 1/14/2015

    2015 1/14/2015 1/15/2016

    2016 1/15/2016 12/30/2016

    Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments can go down as well as up. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may occur.

    Investors should not assume that future performance results will be profitable or equal to implied past model performance. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment strategy will be profitable.

    Portfolio performance shown above is for a model portfolio and does not reflect the performance of an actual clients account or any advisory fees, brokerage commissions or other expenses that might apply.

    The model portfolio is based on the same investment objective for all periods shown. The composition of the model portfolio will differ significantly from the securities that comprise the S&P 500 Index, however, due to the strategic investment process used to generate the model portfolio and to the smaller number of holdings in the model portfolio. No attempt is made to mirror the performance of the S&P 500 Index, and the volatility of the model portfolio may be materially different from that of the S&P 500 Index.

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    MARKET OVERVIEW

    January 2017

    As we enter 2017, there is a tailwind of consumer and investor optimism, plus perhaps a

    palpable fear of missing out on a surging stock market. The corporate profit recession was

    already showing signs of reversing even before the presidential election, so stocks were poised

    to rally once the uncertainty about the election was lifted, no matter who won. Equity investors

    now seem willing to ignore the news headlines that were so distracting for so long and instead

    focus on the many positive fundamentals. Rather than fearing the uncertainty of this new (and

    maverick) administration, they instead have an expectation of a more business-friendly

    environment, overdue fiscal stimulus to complement a still-accommodative Federal Reserve, and

    a desirably higher level of inflation. Even the Fed is finally admitting that monetary stimulus alone

    cant do the trick. Furthermore, the technical picture remains strong, as the Dow is gathering

    strength to challenge psychological round-number resistance at 20,000, and market breadth is

    impressive, led by small caps and value stocks. We believe there is a favorable environment for

    US equities going forward, especially fundamentals-based portfolios like Sabrients annual

    Bakers Dozen.

    Starting in summer 2015 until mid-February 2016, fundamentals were seemingly ignored as

    election campaign rhetoric and news headlines were the primary focus each day, including

    Chinas weakening growth, currency devaluation, and fears of a hard landing, as well as the

    Federal Reserve plan to tighten up its loose monetary policy, and weak oil prices. It was a risk-

    on/risk-off trading environment. As a result, market leadership was narrow and dominated by a

    handful of mega cap favoritesparticularly the FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google)

    stocks. Many companies and market segments that exhibited attractive forward valuations in our

    model simply languished.

    The S&P 500 index began 2016 with its worst January performance in history, falling -10.5%.

    Things were not looking so good from the standpoint of the so-called January effect as a

    predictor for the balance of the year. But in the background, it was evident that fundamentals

    were solid and improving, there was no recession in sight, and the only thing apparently holding

    back stock prices was global uncertainty. Then on Februar