S(3) Maize Growth in East and South-east Asia – Challenges and Opportunities

Maize Growth in East and South-east

Asia – Challenges and Opportunities

Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Zhang Shihuang, Qiu Huanguang, Lu Kaiyv, Ci Xiaoke, Li Mingshun, Zhang Degui,

Liang Xiaoling, Xu Jiashun

National Maize Industrial Technology RD Center, MOA

Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China

[email protected]

We Are Facing the Same

Challenges

demand and imports

production

breeding

seed industry


in Asia

Maize production in East and SE

Asia


Maize production in East and SE Asia (1961-2009) M

aiz

e o

ut

pu

t (m

illio

n t

on

)

y = 0.54x + 1.4

R2 = 0.91

y = 3.0 x + 3.9

R2 = 0.96

y = 3.0 x + 6

R2 = 0.96

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia China

Maize production

in Asia has been

accelerating

during the past 2

decades due to

the increasing

and diversifying

demands for

maize

Maize Production in East and SE Asia

Asia 29%

71%

E Asia 165.89 71%

SE Asia 36.83 16%

other 31.58 13%

818.82

234.30 165.89

36.83

164.11

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

World Asia Eastern Asia

South-Eastern

Asia

China

Maize production (million ton) in East and SE Asia (2009) M

aiz

e p

rod

uc

tio

n (

mil

lio

n t

on

) East Asia is the

main producer of

maize in Asia

166 million tons

in 2009

20.2% of the

world’s total

maize production

Total maize output in Asia reached 234 million tons in 2009

accounted for one-fourth of the world total production

Maize production (million ton) in different areas M

aiz

e o

utp

ut

(milli

on

to

n)

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1961 205.03 31.60 19.40 4.71 18.03

1990 483.34 132.47 101.33 16.44 97.21

2009 818.82 234.30 165.89 36.83 164.11

World Asia Eastern AsiaSouth-

Eastern AsiaChina

•Maize production in

East Asia comes

mainly from China

•accounted for 99%

of East Asia’s total

out put and 20% of

the world output in

2009


• Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand,

and Vietnam are some other main

production countries of maize in

Southeast Asia

Incre

ment

(%)

Increment of maize production in the world, East and

SE Asia during 1961-2009 and 1990-2009

299

69

755

64

124

682

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1961-2009 1990-2009

World

Eastern Asia

South-Eastern Asia

the average

growth rate of

maize

production in

East and SE

Asia is faster

than that of the

world average


• 1961~2009

• maize production and area increased by

2.99 times and 50% in the world

• but by 7.55 times and 101% in East Asia

• and by 6.82 times and 88% in SE Asia


• The growth rates of both yield and area have

been slowing down in the last 2 decades

• maize production increased by 69% in the

world, but increased by 64% and 124% in East

and SE Asia

• Maize area increased 21% in the world, but

43% and 7% in East Asia and SE Asia

Maize yield in East and SE Asia (1961-2009) M

aiz

e yie

ld (

To

n/h

a)

The trend of

maize yield

change in

East Asia was

contrary to

that in SE

Asia 0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia China

y=0.11x+0.974

y=0.11x+1.0

y = 0.04x + 4.59

y = 0.03x + 4.58

y=0.03x+0.790

y = 0.1x + 1.64

Maize Yield in East and SE Asia

• Maize yield increased faster before 1990,

and have been slowing down since then

in East Asia (esp in China)

• However, it has increased faster in SE

Asia after 1990

• So the gap between East and SE Asia

has been being narrower after 1990


• Maize yield increment was due to the:

– adoption of hybrids

– increase of inputs

Maize Yield in East Asia

• In East Asia (especially in China)

• maize yield increased by 220% with an

annual gain of 104 kg/ha during 1969-

1989

• but increased by 15% with an annual

gain of 35 kg/ha during 1990-2009

Maize Yield in SE Asia

• In SE Asia

• Maize yield increased by 99% with an

annual gain of 31 kg/ha before 1990s

• but after that, increased by 110% with

an annual gain of 99 kg/ha


• Both the growth rate and the absolute

growth of maize yields in decades

showed a clear difference between East

and SE Asia

Yield gains of maize decreasing in China


(Data from FAO)

5.9%

4.5%

3.2%

0.2%

1960

1970

1980

1990 1.7%

2000

East Asia

4.4%

3.8%

2.7%

2.3%

1.9%

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

SE Asia

Maize production in China


Year

kg/ha Maize yields since 1950s

OPVs

b=14

b=89 Double-cross hybrids

Single-cross hybrids

b=126 b=23

Stress tolerance


Maize Production in China

• Maize yield in China increased by 3.4

times, with an annual gain of 93 kg/ha

during the past 5 decades

Maize Production in China(略)

• It should be noted that maize yield in China

increased at 104 kg/ha/year before 1990s,

which was even higher than that in Argentina

• but after 1990, maize yield increased at 38

kg/ha/year which was much lower than the

growth of 152 kg/ha/year in US and 180

kg/ha/year in Argentina

• it was even lower than the gains in Vietnam,

Myanmar, Indonesia and Brazil (more than

100 kg/ha/year)

Maize yields in US, Argentina and China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

America Argentina China

y=0.7x+1.6

y=0.11x+4.0

y=0.15x+7.0

y=0.11x+1.0

y=0.04x+4.6

y=0.18x+3.8

Maize Production in SE Asia

• On the contrary, maize yields have

increased sharply since the mid-1990s in

several SE Asian countries

• the annual gains of maize yield in

Indonesia, Vietnam and Myanmar are

4.1%，4.6% and 6.7%

• and annual gains of 107 kg/ha，143

kg/ha and 110 kg/ha

Maize Trade in the Region


• Over the past half-century, the world

maize trade has increased significantly

• East Asia has been importing maize for

a long time, and the imports continue to

increase

• but some of the SE Asian countries

turned into maize exporters in the mid-

1980s

East Asia is a Net Importer (2009)

2008

54970-

9021-

16460-

220

-60000 -50000 -40000 -30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000

China

Japan

Korea

other part of the word

2008

South-east

Asia

7%

13%

South Korea

28%

Japan

52%

East Asia is a Net Importer (2009)

Maize Trade in the Region （略）

• Japan, Korea and China were the main

importers

• Maize imports in Japan (16-17 million tons

annually) accounted for more than half of

Asia’s total imports

• Korea (8-9 million tons) accounted for 28% of

Asia’s total imports


• Imports of Japan and South Korea have

been relatively stable since 1990s

• China was a net export country in most

years

• but its export has been steadily

declining in the last decade

• China has become a net importer of

maize in 2010 (1.5 million tons)

Conclusion--1

• Asia is a big importer of maize

• Demand for maize will continue to

increase in Asia

Increase the Maize Production

to meet tremendous challenges

Small tractors for more

than 20 years and made

the soil hardpan

top fertility soil is

16.5 cm only

Prof. Zhang Dongxing

Soil Improvement

Improve the Soil

soil deep loosing tillage

to use subsoiler to break soil

hardpan

to increase top fertility soil

to return farm residue and crop

straw to the soil

Population density and machine

increase the population density in maize production

45,000/ha 60,000/ha

farming machine

new hybrids with stress tolerance and suitable to harvest machine

irrigation works

farmer collectives

36

Maize Yield and Population Density

t/ha bu/ac plants/ha plants/ac

1 16 10,000 4,047

2 32 20,000 8,094

3 48 30,000 12,141

4 64 40,000 16,188

5 80 45,000 18,211

6 96 50,000 20,235

7 112 55,000 22,258

8 128 60,000 24,282

9 144 65,000 26,305

10 160 70,000 28,329

11 176 75,000 30,352

12 192 80,000 32,376

13 208 85,000 34,399

14 224 90,000 36,423

Lamkey, 2007, Beijing

Stress tolerance

Suitable to harvest with machine

Maize Breeding Strategies in

East and SE Asia

• The rate of maize yield gains in China

has been reducing although the yield

potential has been increasing since

1960 when single cross hybrids were

introduced

Maize Breeding in China

• What is yield? -- questioned by Duvick

• Yield is stress tolerance !

• Stress tolerance of hybrids has been

ignored for almost three decades due to

the central planning economic

constitution of RD management

What is Yield?

40

Risky variety

Breeders tend to

develop hybrids

with tall stature, too

much leafy, late

maturity or full

season, and big

ears

most of this kind of

hybrids are risky

under stress

Plant and ear height (Beijing and Wulumuqi，2007-2008)

y = 3.71x + 249.5

R2 = 0.50

240

250

260

270

280

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Pla

nt

heig

ht

(cm

)

Ear

heig

ht(

cm

)

Year of release

y = 1.15x + 105.4

R2 = 0.10100

110

120

130

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year of release

Linear regression suggested that plant and ear height increased.

Maturity of hybrids delaied

66.0

67.0

68.0

69.0

70.0

71.0

72.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Era (Year)

Matu

rity

(d

ay)

Low Mid High

Shelling percentage（2008）

y = -0.19x + 82.2

R2 = 0.03

75.0

80.0

85.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year of release

Sh

ell

ing

(%

)

Shelling percentage showed a trend to reduction during

1950s-2000s, especially reduced greatly during 1980s-2000s.

44 秃尖长度

y = 0.0889x + 0.6097

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1950s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Year

Barr

ent tip (

cm

)

45 Pioneer hybrids 2006

46 Pioneer hybrids 2006

47

150,000/ha

Sept. 2011

have to change

row spacing

from 76 cm to 50

cm, to increase

the population

density

redesigning the

farming machine

Stine Seeds, Iowa

• Breeders also tend to develop hybrids

with excessive stay green and late

maturity during the past 4 decades

• caused application of chemical

fertilizers in a non-judicious manner

• reducing the efficiency of N utilization

Risky variety

Heterosis

• The contribution of heterosis to yield

gains is higher in China than that

reported in American hybrids

• the contribution of heterosis to yield gains showed

weak increase with the year of hybrids release

y = 0.09x - 107

R2 = 0.02

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Het(%)

Year of release

66% 69%

Re

lative h

ete

rosis

(%

)

Heterosis incerased (1970-2000)

Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science

(11 environments, 2007-2009)

Schnell, F.W. 1974. Trends and problems in breeding methods for hybrid corn. p. 86–98.

In Proc. of the British Poultry Breeders Roundtable, 16th. Birmingham, England. 51

Duvick, D.N. 1999. Heterosis: Feeding people and protecting natural resources. p. 19–29. In J.G.

Coors and S. Pandey (ed.) The genetics and exploitation of heterosis in crops. ASA, Madison, WI. 52

Campbell, B.T., D.T. Bowman, and D.B. Weaver. 2008. Heterotic eff ects in topcrosses of modern and obsolete cotton cultivars. Crop Sci. 48:593–605. 53

Reorienting the Strategy

• Maize breeders both in China and SE

Asian countries are now actively

reorienting the strategy of maize

breeding, and develop stress resilient

and input responsive hybrids

Reorienting the Strategy

• increase yield potential

• enhance stress tolerance

• increase population density in both

crop production and breeding nursery

Strategies for breeding in Asia--1

• continue to introduce, improve and

utilize exotic germplasm to broaden the

genetic base in maize breeding

programs

• to enhance genetic variance in breeding

populations

• strengthen the pre-breeding efforts

Strategy --2

• germplasm should be divided into 2

heterotic groups or 2 alignments

• based on the current genetic

backgrounds, which will keep the SCA

effects in two groups

58

NSS

SS

Duvick, 2005

Strategy --3

• improve the germplasm within each

group and push them to the opposite

directions in terms of gene frequency

• which will enhance and accumulate

GCA effects in breeding populations of

germplasm

Strategy -- 4

• improve germplasm and select inbred

lines under high population density and

other stress conditions based on G×E

effects to enhance stress tolerance

• double density for inbred line

development

• plus 15,000/ha for evaluation of new

hybrids (Troyer,1981)

Strategy -- 5

• multi-location testing and information

management

• science and art

• data and experience

• modern machine and IP technology

• pipeline and profolio

Conclusion--2

• public

• private

• pre-breeding

• pipeline

• profolio

Conclusion--3

• improve the soil and infrastruture

• improve hybrids to meet challenges

• stress tolerance is more important than

heterosis for hybrid yields

• GCA is more important than SCA

• reorient the strategy of maize breeding

programs

Demand for maize in China - 2020

• 230 million tons by 2020

• Processing 58 mt (26%)

• Feeding stuff 151 mt (70%)


• Genetic yield (maximum) —The highest yield

record

• Attainable yield —average yield in Maize

Variety Regional Evaluation Trials

• Actual yield — statistic data issued by MOA

Three concepts of yield

227/120/127 860/95/30 Dr. RF Hu

Genetic yield Attainable yield Actual yield Attainable yield Actual yield Genetic yield Attainable yield Actual yield Genetic yield Attainable yield Actual yield

The differences between yields and yield potential

great

Attainable yield Actual yield Attainable yield Actual yield Genetic yield Attainable yield Actual yield Genetic yield Attainable yield Actual yield Genetic yield Attainable yield Actual yield Genetic yield Attainable yield Actual yield Attainable yield Genetic yield Actual yield Attainable yield Genetic yield Actual yield Attainable yield

S(3) Maize Growth in East and South-east Asia – Challenges and Opportunities

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Transcript of S(3) Maize Growth in East and South-east Asia – Challenges and Opportunities