S TA R T B u l l e t i nF a l l 2 0 1 0

The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) is a U.S. Department of Homeland Security Center of Excellence based at the University of Maryland.

START uses state-of-the-art theories, methods, and data from the social and behavioral sciences to improve understanding of the origins, dynamics, and social and psychological impacts of terrorism. For more information on START, please visit http://www.start.umd.edu/.

Contact: START • 3300 Symons Hall • University of Maryland • College Park, MD 20742 301.405.6600 • infostart@start.umd.edu

IN THIS ISSUE2 START Highlights3 START’s Graduate Certificate in Terrorism Analysis: Upcoming Application Deadline 4 The Role of Academia in Homeland Security: START Seminar with Robert Griffin5 START Presents Research at Technology, Crime, and Terrorism Symposium6 Research Spotlight: Measuring Intervention Success in Terrorism Activities (MISTA)7 Recent START Publications

2 START Bulletin Fall 2010

S TA R T H i g h l i g h t sF a l l 2 0 1 0

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START Highlights showcase recent accomplishments of START researchers and students.

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START is beginning a new project, “Geographic Concentrations of Violent Extremism and Terrorism in the United States”, to explore whether certain areas in the United States are more likely than others to witness the rise of violent extremism. Investigators on the project include Amy Adamczyk and Joshua Freilich of John Jay College; Bianca Bersani of the University of Massachusetts, Boston; Steven Chermak of Michigan State University; Kelly Damphousse of the University of Oklahoma; Brent Smith of the University of Arkansas; and Kathleen Smarick of the University of Maryland.

In September, the National Research Council released a congressionally requested report, Tsunami Warning and Preparedness: An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation’s Preparedness Efforts. START Investigator and a Professor Emeritus of the University of Colorado, Dennis Mileti, served on the committee that contributed to the report, which found that while tsunami warning systems have improved, many coastal communities are still vulnerable. The full report is available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12628.

START is pleased to welcome an eagerly-anticipated new staff member, Dr. Mary Mattox Daughtrey, to our team as START’s Executive Director. Mary comes to us with a wealth of experience, including an extensive background in terrorism studies and national security, both from her academic focus on the Northern Irish conflict and peace process as well as her experience with Booz Allen Hamilton leading teams supporting DHS policy and partnership activities. Mary will be starting on December 6, 2010. We look forward to having her on board!

START would like to thank our Public Relations Intern for the Fall Semester, Danielle Kershner, an undergraduate communication and psychology student at the University of Maryland, for her help as a guest contributor to this issue of the newsletter. We wish her the best as she graduates this semester and continues to pursue a career in communications.

Find START on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/pages/Start-Consortium/142380569142617 where you can see updates on START, event photos, and more! By liking us, you can even receive our updates in your newsfeed.

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3 START Bulletin Fall 2010

S TA R T ’s G r a d u a t e C e r t i f i c a t e i n

Te r r o r i s m A n a l y s i s : U p c o m i n g

A p p l i c a t i o n D e a d l i n e

START is offering a Graduate Certificate in Terrorism Analysis, granting eligible students a certificate from the University of Maryland Graduate School. This series of courses is fully online and utilizes scheduled weekly synchronous sessions that can be completed in 12 months.

Program Description:START’s Graduate Certificate in Terrorism Studies provides participants with advanced education on the causes, dynamics, and impacts of international and domestic terrorism. Participants also develop the methodological skills necessary to pursue advanced research on and analysis of terrorism. This program is appropriate for individuals interested in and/or currently working in fields related to intelligence analysis, homeland security analysis or analysis of other relevant topic areas. The program is also fitting for individuals interested in or currently conducting scholarly research on terrorism and responses to terrorism.

Application Deadlines (Students can enter the program in any of the first three terms):• Term 1 - applications due January 15, 2011

(Nov.15 for international students)• Term 2- applications due May 15, 2011 (Feb. 15

for international students)• Term 3 - applications due July 15, 2011 (May 15

for international students)

Applicant Eligibility:• 4-year baccalaureate degree from a regionally-

accredited US institution, or an equivalent degree at a foreign university

• 3.0 GPA preferred, but experience may substitute• GRE scores not required

Application Materials:• Online application through the University of

Maryland’s Graduate School (select “Terrorism Analysis - Z039” in the drop-down list of programs)

• Transcripts for all university level coursework• Personal statement• Resume• Two letters of recommendation• International applicants must submit TOEFL

scores and a certification of finances

Tuition and Fees:• Initial application fee: $60• Tuition and fees per course: $2,100• Students are responsible for purchasing their

own books, software and other supplies as required by each instructor

• Students pay an online course fee determined per semester, in the range of $40 - $60

• Students may be required to pay additional UMD fees

Stay tuned for online information sessions at http://www.start.umd.edu/start/education/academic_programs/gc/.

Terrorist Motivations and Behaviors

Focuses on theoriesexplaining the forma-tion of terrorist groups

and the motivations behind terrorist

behavior

Term 1:March 1 - May21

Societal Impacts of and Responses to

Terrorism

Examines ways in which different actors

respond to both terror-ist incidents and to the

threat of terrorism

Term 2: June 1 - Aug. 21

Development of Counterterrosim

Policy and Programs

Explores counterterror-ism policies and policy-making processes and

actors since 2001

Term 3:Sept. 1 - Nov. 21

Research Methods in Terrorism and

Counterterrosim

Provides students with a basic understand-

ing of the methods of quantitative reseearch

available to social scientists studying

terrorism and counterterrorism

Term 4:Dec. 1 - Feb. 21

Four Required Courses3-hour online session, one everning per week

START Graduate Certificate in Terrorism Analysis

4 START Bulletin Fall 2010

In September, Dr. Robert Griffin, the Director of First Responder Programs for the DHS Science and Technology Directorate (S &T), presented the Fall START Seminar, titled“The Role of Academia in Homeland Security.” Dr. Griffin has 20 years of experience in local government as a senior leader and first responder, including involvement in the emergency response to the attacks on the Pentagon on 9/11.

Griffin began his lecture by stating that the threat our country faces - both home and abroad - has been raised to a new level. He emphasized how perceptions of safety in the public are as important as the reality of safety.

Griffin outlined START’s role in DHS, as one of 12 Centers of Excellence (COEs) as helping to fulfill their mission to strengthen America’s security and resiliency by providing innovative science and technology solutions for the Homeland Security Enterprise. DHS’s COEs bring experts together for homeland security solutions http://www.hsuniversityprograms.org/coe/current.cfm. COEs involve more than 200 U.S. colleges and universities including, representing 47 states and territories. In

‘ T h e R o l e o f A c a d e m i a i n H o m e l a n d S e c u r i t y ’

S TA R T S e m i n a r w i t h R o b e r t G r i f f i n

addition to the COEs, S&T is comprised of non-federal government partners, private sector partners, federal partners and research affiliates with a network of laboratories that are essential cornerstones of research programs. Linking operations, expectations and technology among these partners is a key component of what DHS S&T aims to accomplish.

Griffin expressed how research can be used in many different ways and that while academic communities and the government operate in different langauges, there are ways to build the relationships between them. DHS is working to build these relationships through its COE and other existing partnerships while working to develop new partnerships.

In addition to technological advancements are imperative to the S&T Directorate, Griffin stressed how essential trust and relationships are in providing solutions to Homeland Security. DHS’s goal is to converge technology, human awareness and privacy to strengthen community relations by enhancing public acceptance and human performance. Griffin

presented a challenge we face today: strengthening security in a connected, internet-enabled world.

Lastly, Griffin discussed how “DHS Centers of Excellence, like START, are providing a valuable service to the country.” He stressed that matching people with subject matter experts and practitioners is key and that programs like START are essential for regenerating the leaders that work for DHS and the federal government.

START Seminar Series: The START Seminar Series is an ongoing effort to bring leading experts in the field of terrorism studies and homeland security to the University of Maryland campus to share their current work with the public to increase the understanding of the dynamics of terrorism.

“DHS Centers of Excellence, like START, are providing a valuable service to the country.”

Dr. Robert Griffin

START Director, Dr. Gary LaFreeand Dr. Robert Griffin

5 START Bulletin Fall 2010

In October, START participated in a one-day symposium hosted by the University of Maryland’s College of Behavioral and Social Sciences (BSOS). The goal of the symposium was to forge new relationships that lead to future research and effective policies relating to new technologies in the prevention of crime and terrorism. START presented one of the four panels that came together for the interdisciplinary symposium.

The symposium included opening remarks by Maryland Attorney General Douglas Gansler, UMD Provost Nariman Farvadin, and BSOS Dean, John Townshend. Sessions included:• “Dimensions of the Terrorist-Technology

Nexus”, presented by START (www.start.umd.edu)

• “The Role of DNA in Crime and Justice”, presented by the UMD Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice (CCJS) (www.ccjs.umd.edu)

• “Intelligence and Information Sharing Technologies and Policy Implications For

S TA R T P r e s e n t s R e s e a r c h a t

‘ Te c h n o l o g y, C r i m e a n d Te r r o r i s m ’

S y m p o s i u m

Criminal Justice Agencies”, presented by the Public Safety Training and Technical Assistance Program (PSTTAP) (www.psttap.org)

• “Research and Policy Applications of Drug Testing Technology”, presented by The Center for Substance Abuse Research (CESAR) (www.cesar.umd.edu)

START director Gary LaFree moderated the START session, and began with an overview of START’s mission and current initiatives. LaFree outlined START’s role in the larger symposium and related how, “Social science can play a pivotal role in keeping research on terrorism objective and relevant.”

Gary Ackerman, START’s Assistant Director of Research and Communication, presented first on “The Adoption and Use of Transformative Technologies by Terrorist Organizations.” In his discussion, Ackerman warned that the same technologies that are beneficial and helpful to society can be detrimental if in the hands of a terrorist and that the effects of emerging technology on terrorist weapons could remove obstacles to weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Additionally, new technology may lessen the technical skill required for terrorist groups to acquire WMD. Current barriers to adoption of new technology include: ideology, resistance from guardians of current practice, transfer of tactical knowledge and other factors. Despite these barriers, terrorists are often motivated to innovate technologically if their existing methods are insufficient, the cost of new technology is low, or the ideological doctrine supports innovation. He also relayed that while not presently as high as we would expect, an interest in chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons by terrorist groups is expected to grow.

Jarret Brachman presented next on “Watching Them, Watch Us, Watching Them.” Brachman, a counterterrorism expert with research and

publications on Al-Qaeda media strategy, showcased how the blogosphere and nature of online technology and communication has allowed him to iteratively and reflexively interact with various online jihadist blogs and bloggers about Al-Qaeda. Brachman explained that Bin Laden’s recent messages have shifted to promote Al-Qaeda as a state of mind rather than an organization and rebranded the messages towards charitable and social movements. These messages put forth the view that anyone can be an activist and serve the Al-Qaeda mission, which can provide a pathway for radicalization.

START’s final panelist, Michael Kenney, an associate professor of public policy and political science at Pennsylvania State University, gave insights into the role of the Internet in facilitating terrorist actions. There are many recipes for explosives in terrorist manuals, which can be accessed online. However, there are many inaccuracies in these online manuals, and the Internet does not replace hands on experience. Kenney explained that in the real world terrorists still need training which includes both technical knowledge and experience.

A recording of START’s panel is available on the symposium website.

6 START Bulletin Fall 2010

R e s e a r c h S p o t l i g h t : M e a s u r i n g

I n t e r v e n t i o n S u c c e s s i n Te r r o r i s m A c t i v i t i e s

( M I S TA )

Following the attacks on September 11, 2001, the FBI quickly transitioned from a “responsive, investigative agency” to one focusing on “proactive early interdic-tion” of terrorist activities. The START project Measur-ing Intervention Success in Terrorism Activities (MISTA) examined this shift in policy to determine its impact on counterterrorism efforts. Brent L. Smith, from the University of Arkansas, led a team of researchers on the MISTA project in examining the impact of “proac-tive policing” on counterterrorism efforts, prosecuto-rial conduct, and conviction success. If the FBI suc-cessfully implemented such a change, a prominent effect of this policy shift should be reflected in the ratio of “prevented” to “completed” acts of terrorism in the United States, a measure reported in the FBI’s annual reports on terrorism in the United States. If this change did occur, federal prosecutors would have been forced to adopt different methods and strategies to obtain convictions in these cases.

Methodology

To examine this issue, researchers examined over 325 officially designated “prevented” and “completed” acts of terrorism reported in the FBI annual reports from 1983-2005. Data from these reports were linked to legal and sentencing data in the American

Terrorism Study, which chronicled federal ter-rorism indictments resulting from FBI domestic terrorism enterprise and foreign counterintel-ligence investigations during this period.

Variables Measured Included:• Ratio of prevented to completed acts of

terrorism• Number of defendants per case• Average number of counts per indictment• Percentage of cases resulting in plea agree-

ments• Count severity• Percentage of non-convicted counts per

case• Conviction rate

Major Findings

The data suggest that the FBI successfully moved to a more proactive, intelligence focused investiga-tive paradigm after 9/11. The ratio of prevented to completed acts of terrorism shifted dramatically, with the percentage of completed acts decreased from 71% to 29%, while the percentage of prevented acts increased from 40% to 60% in the post-9/11 era (see Figure 1).

The investigators found that this shift had significant ramifications for federal prosecutors. Efforts to pre-vent terrorism require that investigators intervene earlier than normal. Investigators would have less opportunity to infiltrate groups causing prosecutors to have to indict with less evidence than they might normally like to have. The evidence supported this contention. The percentage of cases involving con-fidential informants (CIs) dropped from 73% to 20% after 9/11. Prosecutors were perhaps forced to indict before the full extent of conspiracies were known

as indicated by a drop in the average number of defendants per indictment after 9/11 (from 3.7 to 1.7 defendants per case) and a decrease in the average number of counts per case (from 13.8 counts to 7.3 counts per defendant after 9/11).

This created difficulties for prosecutors as reflected in the ratio of convicted to unconvicted counts in cases before and after 9/11. Analysis of 323 cases prior to 9/11 revealed that prosecutors obtained convictions on 63% of the counts for which terrorism defendants were indicted. In the four years after 9/11, an analy-sis of 47 terrorism cases from 2001-2005 revealed that terrorists were only convicted of 18% of the counts in these cases.

Despite these dramatic changes, federal prosecutors did not suffer a decline in the overall conviction rate in officially designated terrorism cases. It remained constant at 71% both before and after 9/11, probably due to a dramatic increase in the plea bargain rate among terrorists after 9/11.

Figure 1. Completed vs. Prevented Acts

7 START Bulletin Fall 2010

Articles & Book Reviews

Hancock, Jeffrey T., and Michael Woodworth, Saurabh Goorha. “See No Evil: The Effect of Communication Medium and Motivation on Deception Detection”. Group Decision and Negotiation 19.4 (2010).

Leuprecht , Christian and Todd Hataley, Sophia Moskalenko, Clark McCauley. “Containing the Narrative: Strategy and Tactics in Countering the Storyline of Global Jihad”. Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism 5.1 (2010).

Maoz, Ifat , and Gili Freedman, Clark McCauley. “Fled or Expelled: Representation of Israeli-Arab Conflict in U.S. History Books”. Peace and Conflict 16.1 (2010).

McCauley, Clark . “Does Political Radicalization Depend on Ideology? Review of Ziad Munson, The Making of Pro-Life Activists: How Social Movement Mobilization Works”. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict 2.3 (2010).

Moskalenko, Sophia , and Clark McCauley. “Measuring Political Mobilization: The Distinction between Activism and Radicalism”. Terrorism and Political Violence 21.2 (2009).

North, Carol S., and Betty Pfefferbaum, Barry A. Hong, Mollie Gordon, You-Seung Kim. “The Business of Healing: Focus Group Discussions of Readjustment to the Post-9/11 Work Environment Among Workers of Affected Agencies”. Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine 52.7 (2010).

R e c e n t S TA R T P u b l i c a t i o n s

More START Publications available at: http://www.start.umd.edu/start/publications/search_pub/

Pfefferbaum, Betty , and Carl A. Maida, Alan M. Steinberg, Randall D. Beaton, Robert S. Pynoos. “Enhancing National Capacity to Conduct Child and Family Disaster Mental Health Research”. Nursing Education Perspectives 31.4 (2010).

Schoch-Spana, Monica , and Nidhi Bouri, Kunal Rambhia, Ann Norwood. “Stigma, Health Disparities and the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic: How to Protect Latino Farmworkers in Future Health Emergencies “. Biosecurity & Bioterrorism 8.3 (2010).

Singh, Rashmi . “The Security Dimension of Pakistan’s Floods”. Al Majallah September 2010 (2010).

Singh, Rashmi. “The Real State of Play: Al Qaeda and its Affiliates”. Al Majallah April 2010 (2010).

Tucker, Phebe , and Pfefferbaum Betty, Carol S. North, Adrian; Kent, Haekyung Jeon-Slaughter. “Biological Correlates of Direct Exposure to Terrorism Several Years Post-Disaster”. Annals of Clinical Psychiatry 22.3 (2010).

Warkentin, Darcy , and Michael Woodworth, Jeffrey T. Hancock, Nicole Cormier. “Warrants and Deception in Computer-Mediated Communication”. Proceedings of the ACM Conference on Computer-Supported Cooperative Work (2010).

Book Chapters

Arias, Enrique D., and Daniel M. Goldstein. 2010. “Violent Pluralism: Understanding the “New Democracies” of Latin America”. In Violent Democracies in Latin America. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.

Chenoweth, Erica , and Maria J. Stephan. 2010. “Mobilization and Resistance: A Framework for Analysis”. In Rethinking Violence: States and Non-State Actors in Conflict. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Lawrence, Adria , and Erica Chenoweth. 2010. “Introduction”. In Rethinking Violence: States and Non-State Actors in Conflict. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Books

Chenoweth, Erica , and Adria Lawrence. Rethinking Violence: States and Non-State Actors in Conflict. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. 2010.

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