Ryan Thorpe Chief Operating Officer Tharaldson Ethanol
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Transcript of Ryan Thorpe Chief Operating Officer Tharaldson Ethanol
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Ryan ThorpeChief Operating Officer
Tharaldson Ethanol
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Tharaldson Ethanol
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Tharaldson Ethanol
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Energy and Security Act of 2007Also known as RFS2
Ethanol Mandate2011- 12.6 Billion Gallons2012- 13.2 Billion Gallons2013- 13.8 Billion Gallons2014- 14.4 Billion Gallons2015- 15 Billion Gallons
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Ethanol Margins
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EPA announcement 11-15-13
• EPA reduces 2014 total mandate from 18.15BB gallons to 15.21. This is made up of corn based ethanol, advanced biofuels, and biomass-based diesel
• Corn based ethanol cut from 14.4BB to 13.1BB gallons
• I will focus on corn based ethanol
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Fallout from EPA announcement
• Long term-puts pressure on the future of corn based ethanol, limits its growth
• Leaves no room for cellulosic biofuel growth• Caps the ethanol penetration at 10%, reducing
the need to get E-15 at the pump, even though ethanol is currently $1 cheaper than gasoline
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The real loser from this announcement
• The American Farmer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!• United States corn ending stocks for 2014 will
be the highest since 2005, 1.8BB bushels (prior to the ethanol boom)
• World ending corn stocks for 2014 will be the highest since 2001, 162MM tons (6.36BB bushels)
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US Corn Ending Stocks
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World Corn Ending Stocks
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2014 Estimate US Corn
US Corn Ending Stocks vsStocks / Usage Ratio
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14Est
En
din
g S
tock
s in
Mil
lio
n B
ush
els
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
24%
27%
Sto
cks / Usag
e Ratio
Ending Stocks Stocks as % of UsageUpdated: 09/12/2013 2014 = ADMIS Estimate
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World Soybeans Ending Stocks
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North Dakota Ethanol Production
• 2005- 30,000,000• 2008-128,935,229• 2011-383,574,864• 2012-365,093,524• 2013-367,145,656
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Percentage of Ethanol Exported out of ND
• 2008-82%• 2011-93%• 2012-92.5%• 2013-92%
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Questions????