Ryan Thorpe Chief Operating Officer Tharaldson Ethanol

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Ryan Thorpe Chief Operating Officer Tharaldson Ethanol

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Ryan Thorpe Chief Operating Officer Tharaldson Ethanol. Tharaldson Ethanol. Tharaldson Ethanol. Energy and Security Act of 2007 Also known as RFS2. Ethanol Mandate 2011- 12.6 Billion Gallons 2012- 13.2 Billion Gallons 2013- 13.8 Billion Gallons 2014- 14.4 Billion Gallons - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Ryan Thorpe Chief Operating Officer Tharaldson Ethanol

Page 1: Ryan Thorpe Chief Operating Officer Tharaldson Ethanol

Ryan ThorpeChief Operating Officer

Tharaldson Ethanol

Page 2: Ryan Thorpe Chief Operating Officer Tharaldson Ethanol

Tharaldson Ethanol

Page 3: Ryan Thorpe Chief Operating Officer Tharaldson Ethanol

Tharaldson Ethanol

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Energy and Security Act of 2007Also known as RFS2

Ethanol Mandate2011- 12.6 Billion Gallons2012- 13.2 Billion Gallons2013- 13.8 Billion Gallons2014- 14.4 Billion Gallons2015- 15 Billion Gallons

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Ethanol Margins

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EPA announcement 11-15-13

• EPA reduces 2014 total mandate from 18.15BB gallons to 15.21. This is made up of corn based ethanol, advanced biofuels, and biomass-based diesel

• Corn based ethanol cut from 14.4BB to 13.1BB gallons

• I will focus on corn based ethanol

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Fallout from EPA announcement

• Long term-puts pressure on the future of corn based ethanol, limits its growth

• Leaves no room for cellulosic biofuel growth• Caps the ethanol penetration at 10%, reducing

the need to get E-15 at the pump, even though ethanol is currently $1 cheaper than gasoline

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The real loser from this announcement

• The American Farmer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!• United States corn ending stocks for 2014 will

be the highest since 2005, 1.8BB bushels (prior to the ethanol boom)

• World ending corn stocks for 2014 will be the highest since 2001, 162MM tons (6.36BB bushels)

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US Corn Ending Stocks

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World Corn Ending Stocks

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2014 Estimate US Corn

US Corn Ending Stocks vsStocks / Usage Ratio

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250

500

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92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14Est

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tock

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6%

9%

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21%

24%

27%

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e Ratio

Ending Stocks Stocks as % of UsageUpdated: 09/12/2013 2014 = ADMIS Estimate

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World Soybeans Ending Stocks

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North Dakota Ethanol Production

• 2005- 30,000,000• 2008-128,935,229• 2011-383,574,864• 2012-365,093,524• 2013-367,145,656

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Percentage of Ethanol Exported out of ND

• 2008-82%• 2011-93%• 2012-92.5%• 2013-92%

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Questions????