Russian Economy on the Eve of the First World War …...1...

1

伊藤昌太:国際的連関構造の中でみた第一次大戦前夜のロシア経済

Russian Economy on the Eve of the First World Warin International Perspective

- A Tentative Note-

Shota IT0

The thesis of the multilateral trade and the world pattern of settlements 1',p「oPOSed by S.B・ saul jn 1960 seems tome the most serious and substantial contribution to the study of we「ld economic history in the age of imperialism(from the late 19th century to t914).Many hiSto「lans in Japan appreciate this thesis and have written many papers21,oriented by this thesis.In the light Of, or guided by,this thesis,now we can clarify many problems of the international economy,fo「 example,the position of each country in the world economy,patterns of the economic 「elation among countries,soon.What is more,we can get many suggestions from this thesis as to the aspect of economic and political struggle between countries and the way of development of each national economy.

At the same time,there are many points in the thesis which need revision not Only in Some details,but also in framework itself3).As for the latter point,there is a fundamental P「Oblem how to perceive the relation between the final formation of the network of multilateral Settlements and the outbreak of the First World War.S_B.Saul dated the establishments of this netwO「k“in the years just before the First World War'4)_Is that true?Economic phenomena ''just bete「e the Fi「St World War''seem tome to require further investigation.

In this paper,I will try to point out many economic changes both in Continental Europe and in Russia as a part of jt,on the eve of the First World War,then to show these changes indicating the transformation process of the international pattern of settlements,and toCOnside「 Some aspects concerning the relations between these changes and the outburst of the First Wo「ld Wa「.The「e「by we will reexamine the position of Russian economy on the eve of the First World War in into「national perspective51.

(I )

On the eve of the First World War occurred many changes in Russian economy,to which little attention has been given in spite of their importance.

First,the Rouble exchange rate had fallen gradually from 1911 to 1912,rather Sharply du「ing 1913,and drastically in the first half of 1914(see ftg .1)61.This trend contrasted Sha「Ply With the relatively steady quotations of other main currencies on the Continent except K「One Of Dual Monarchy whatever the causes and factors may be,we should here pay attention to the fact that Russian economy had already been in a critical situation before the opening of hostilitieS.InOthe「 words,this critical situation can not be irrelevant to theoutbreak of the Wa「・

second,the foreign trade balance,which had constantly produced a large sum Of Su「Plus fo「 more than thirty years,reduced surplus very rapidly from 1912 to 1913,and perhaps tu「nedOut f「Om

2

福島大学教育学部論集第48号 1990-11

surplus to deficit in the first half of 191471.As ftgMre 2 shows,this change was the result of relatively stagnant export and rapid rise of import.As was well known,Russia was the biggest supplier of food and raw materials in Europe81.At the same time she held a prohibitive tariff barrier for many years91.By these twofold advantages Russia had gained large surplus from trades with almost every country in Europe.Therefore Russia was now losing her advantages in foreign trades from both sides.Because this trade surplus was only one position sustaining Russian international accounts,it is impossible to exaggerate the serious meaning of this change in trade balance.Russia was in critical situation in this point too_

217.00 216.75 216_50 216.25 216.00 215.75 215.50 215.25 215_00 214.75 214.50 214.25 214.00 213.75 213.50

fig。1 The Fall ot Rouble Exchange Rate in Petersburg

(Die Bank- Monathefte fiir Finanz-u.Bankwesen,Berlin,Jg.1910-1914)

table 1 Foreign Investment in Russia (in million roubles)

1910 1914 Year

Each period Foreign Invest- ments in State Securities

Foreign Invest- ments in Civil Enterprises

Total

million R % million R % million R % 1893 - 1900 952 64.4 526 35.6 1478 100 1900 - 1908 1321 78.0 373 22.0 1694 100 1908 - 1914 383 31.7 825 68.3 1208 100 1914 - 1917 7750 96.5 283 3.5 8033 100

V.I.Bovykin,K VoprosuoRoli InostrannogoKapitala v Rossii,MGU.,1964,No 1 s.70.

3


0

0

0

0

0

0

0

00

0

00

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

8

70

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

9

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

10

5

4

3

2

- 100

fig.2 Russian International Accounts

00

00

00

00

2

3

4

5

一

一

一

一

(in million Roubles)

total of accountspayments of interests of state securitiespayments of touristpayments of devidends andInterests of companes

0 0 merchandise eKport

merchandise Import

ー ▲_ ▲一 merchandise trade balance

- - - - trade balance with Germany

P.Gregory,Russian National Income 1885-1913,Cambridge,1982,p.97-8

4


Third,German export to Russia,which had been growing steadily from the late 19th century surpassing that of Britain,rose sharply in the years just before the War and her share in total Russian import reached more than47% in1913 and about half in the first half of 1914.We can say that German export drive had been winning in trade rivalry around Russian market and that Germany had been gaining the controlling position'01.

table 2 Russian Gold Balance Abroad (in miMon francs) 1912.1.1 1913.4_1 1914.1_1 1914.7_10

in France 245 350 431 463 in Germany 206 90 103 111

in Great Britain 54

} 160

46 81

others 28 14 11

Total 533 600 594 666

R.Girault,Emprunts Russes et inv,estissements Franeais en.Russie 1887-1914, Paris,1973 p_574.

Fourth,as V.I.Bovykin explicitly made it clear1'1,for the first time in the long history of capital import,the foreign investment in private enterprizes surpassed that in public securities not only in the rate of growth but also in value(see table .1).Russia entered the new stage of capital import on the eve of the War'21.What is more,much stress should be given to the fact that French investment,which had shared in the greatest part of Russian state securities sold abroad in the earlier period,continued to hold a leading position in this form of investment too'31.In other words, while accelerating export drive in commodity trade,Germany diminished its share in capital export toRussia141.Russia could no more expect much capital from Germany.

Fifth;in addition to the growing reserve of gold which then reached the largest scale in Europe along with France'51,Russia had gold balance abroad in the largest scale in the world along with Japan and India16'.What is noteworthy is that their greatest part consisted of the past huge sum of indebtedness and that her gold balance abroad was being concentrated in Paris financial center as the pledge of imported capital in ever widening scale,even by drawing up a part of it from Berlin17 (see table 2).In a word,France exported a huge sum of capital to Russia and Russia deposited a great part of it in turn as the mortgage of lt. The financial tie between Russia and France was more tightened and thus two countries shared the same fate with each other even to the War.

Last but not least, Russian international accounts turned out worse because of the rapid diminution of trade balance,the growth of payments of interests and dividends as a result of past huge public indebtedness and capital import,and the alarmingly growing payments of tourists and emigrants(see figure2)181.Russia was then falling into the endless heavy indebtedness.0nly capital import could save Russia from this critical situation.But from where?Anyhow here we could conclude that Russia was in a critical situation just before the First World War.

5


(s-)u重一uo一一一一u-lu-)

s-un。一nv-M[。一一・e---uI,pu。」一

g

-q.s

6


(II)

Was it only Russia that experienced many great changes in economic relation with foreign countries ?Did not these changes connect with those of related countries ?Observing countries of Continental Europe during the same period from these points of view,we can find similar phenomena at least in the following countries which had also c]esc relation with Russia in the area of economy or politics.ln the following I will point out main aspects of these changes from two sides : foreign trade and financial activities.

(A) France

France,which had been holding the positionof financialcenter in Continental Europe since the late nineteenth century,experienced many economic changes during the years just before the War'91.

(i) Foreign TradeFirst, in trade balance, which had been enjoying relatively steady results since the late

nineteenth century and thereby sustaining the position of financial center201,deficit grew sharply(see table3).This deficit in trade balance affected heavily her international accounts in turn.

Second,accordingly in the trade balance with each main country also occurred many changes. ①The trade with Germany,which had been favourable to France for many years,turned adverse from 1910 on owing to the sharply rising import of German industrial goods,which was due to both German growing competition and French rising demand caused by economic boom。This upset,I think,symbolizes the economic relation between two countries. Made in Germany'was being regarded as the perilous symptom of German invasion2'1.②In the trade with Russia,which was adverse all over the period,deficit grew rapidly owing to the heavy import of Russian corn221. Traditionally France was a country of peasantry in one sense and self-sufficient in food supply. Now she was becoming importer of not only industrial products,but also foods. ③The trade balance with Britain was very favourable for many years and was a main source of trade surplus, but even its surplus was now reduced to nearly a fifth231.

(i i) Financial Activities

First,French capital export,which had grown steadily and had made her the financial center of Continental Europe;was supposed to stop its growth from 1910 on mainly owing to the large scale of trade deficit.This trend contrasted sharply with that of Britain which,as is well known,sharply increased capital export just during this period.France did not become ''Rentner Staat''like Britain.

Second,the center of gravity in capital investment moved from foreign countries toward inland because of the domestic industrial boom241.Accordingly the growth of capital export was two-fold restrained (see table 3).French economy,which had been characterized by its discord between export of industrial goods and capital export in the previous stage,now entered the new stage when neither discord in general nor straight unification,but rather the tensioned struggles between them in financial market were peculiar to it251.It was the testimony of this situation that the discount rate,which had been traditionamy kept low,now rose to higher level (from3% to 4%)and the famous controversy over the discord mentioned above was yet extended till on the eve of the War261

Third,France discarded her position as a general financial center of Continental Europe by stopping the supply of short-term capitals to Germany and Dual Monarchy in 1911271 on one side and

7


(s-juuuo一一一nnu-)

8

福島大学教育学部論集第48号 1990- 11

by strengthening capital export to Russia on the other side. Her capital export became much selective as to the object area and brought financial antagonism between Russo-French bloc and Central European Powers281.At the same time,French short-term cedits to London money market is reported to have grown less291.Thus French position in European economy changed very much and the international economic relations moved not so well as before.

(B) Germany

German economy also showed new trends toward the neighbouring countries.

(i) Foreign TradeHer foreign trade,which completed its framework suited to highly developed industrial country

during the late nineteenth century,grew rapidly during the early twentieth century3e1.What seems tome important is that her trade balance with each European country gradually but steadily turned favourable for her in a sharp contrast with her growing deficit trades with the tropica]or semi- tropical countries producing primary resources.At the beginning of the twentieth century,Germany acquired favorable balance from only a half of all European countries.Inother words,her trade with European countries was,as a whole,reciprocal then.After 1907-09 when her trade balance turned favourable with the big countries like Italy,Dual Monarchy,and France,Germany acquired ever growing net balance from all Continental Europeexcept for a few countries like Russia and Spain (see table 4).

What is noteworthy is that this was the result of her restless export drive of industrial products on the one hand and of her agricultural protectionism,which brought into the effect not only the growing output of corns but also the rise of export of them on the other hand311. The critical situation of Russian trade balance of 1913-14 was also the result of these movements in Germany321_ Thus Germany could nearly offset the large deficit, arising from the import of overseas raw materials,with ever growing surplus from Continental Europe including Russia just in1913.

(i i) Financial ActivitiesAccording to H.Feis,Germany was a country of ''two needs for every Mark''331.So she was

forced to continue bellowing short-term money,while exporting capitals to the neighboring east and south east countries341.In other words,.this bellowing enabled her rapid growth in industrial production as well as in export.The withdrawal of 1911 of French capitals,having been investd mainly in the form of pension,meant heavy blow toGermanfinancial market351.Germany could'nt but be highly selective in her capitalexport.The negative tendency to Russia and the positive trend to Dual Monarchy in her capital export,mainly in their public securities on the eve of the War,were the results of this selection361.From this point of view,we can tell the formation of two financial blocs,namely French-Russian and Central European.At the same time,it must not be omitted that Germany did not hesitate to export capitals even in the western countries,as far as it was necessary to widen her production and commodity export371_Here we can find the rise of Mark settlements area331. Now on the eve of the War, Germany was growing up as an economic leviathan on Continental Europe and began to disturb the past multilateral cooperative system of European economy.Thus she began to even challenge the British economic supremacy as the very center of the world system of multilateral settlements_

9


table 5 Austro-Hungarian international accounts,1894-1913 (totals for five-year periods in million crowns)

1894-8 1899-1903 1904-81909-13

N et recoil)ts f rom 'Balance of commodity trade and goldand specie movementEmigrants'remittancesTourist tradeBanking profits and trade commissionsTransit trafficTotal net receiptsNet payments for .'Balance of commodity trade and goldand specie movementInterest and dividends on foreign

indebtednessLess returns from foreign investmentsTota] net paymentsNet receipts (十) or payments (-) on all

items

205 150 200 200 100 855

1,550120

1430

-575

960200250300150

i 860

1,750150

1.600

十260

405700350400180

2;035

1,500500450250

2,700

2,400

1,750 1,750150 200

1 600 3 950

十435 - 1,250

scurf、e ・Leo pasvolsky E:clynomicNationali'sm of the Danubian Slates (New York?1928),11_13 cited.from:R。Rudolph,Banking and Industrialization in Austria-Hungary,Cambridge,1976,p.177.

(C) Dual Monarchy

(i) Foreign TradeThe trade balance of Dual Monarchy turned drastically in 1908 from traditionality faVOu「able

position to adverse one,owing to the growing import both of industrial p「oduCtS mainly f「Om Germany and of food and raw materials mainly from Russia391.Dual Monarchy as a half-induSt「ia1-lzed country was attacked by foreign competitors from both sides_This ever growing t「ado deficit changed the whole structure of her international accounts in turn and laid it On the Pee「 Condition・ Gold began to f1ow out of the country in the end(see table 5).

(i i) Financial Activities

Dual Monarchy was a capital import country in the main since the nineteenth centu「y.C「itiCa1 situation of her international accounts after 1908 made capital import more and me「e indispensable・ w ithdrawal of French short_term credits in1911 made this necessity more urgent481.The Sha「P 「iSe of djscount rate and the undeniable fall ot exchange rate of Krone after then We「e the explicit evidences of this sjtuatjon.It was only by financial dependence on Germany that She Could meet he「 urgent needs411 Here we can see just the same financial dependence as Russia,though they tended to completely opposite sides In any event,Dual Monarchy had fallen in a critical situation just before the War_

10

10 福島大学教育学部論集第48号 1990-11

(III)

How can we explain the meaning of the above mentioned state of affairs ? How can we understand Saul's thesis in view of these facts in Continental Europe?How can we relate these facts to theoutbreak of the War?To answer these questions I will suppose the following hypothesis_

(i) S.B.Sau1,as a rule,divided Continental Europe into two parts,namely 'Industrial Europe'' and ''non-Industrial Europe'',in his work,although he often mentioned''Europe''or ℃ontinenta1 Europe'as a whole.And he sometimes suggested even the unity of European economy do facto But as a whole;the economic relations between European countries or the structure of multilateral settlements within Continental Europe are not perceivable in his work.It is,1think.not only important but also necessary to comprehend Continental Europe as a single unity of the multilateral settlements and locate it in the world network of multilateral settlements as a unique part of lt. Many facts quoted in the previous chapters seem tome to favour this hypothesis.

(ii) Saul dated the formtionof the world pattern of multilateral settlements in the years just before the First World War.But,as has been mentioned above,many changes happened during the same years,sofar as Continental Europe was concerned.At least it is not adequate to grasp the entire years from 1900to1914as a final formation period of the multilateral settlements pattern within Continental Europe421.As for Continental Europe,we should rather devide the years from the end of the 'great depression''to t914 into three periods as follows.

a) A formative period of the multilateral settlements in Europe (during the latter half of thenineties of the last century).

b) A period of the final formation of the multilateral settlements pattern (after the economiccrisis of 1900 till the depressed years posterior to the economic crisis of 1907).

c) A period of the decline of the multilateral settlements pattern within Europe('during the yearsjust before the First World War'').In following I will try to clarify the structural changes of this settlements pattern。First period From the middle of the nineties of the last century on,many European

countries,passing through the long 'great depression”,experienced the ages of economic up-swing; based on each acceralated industrialization though various in their rates of growth.These proces_ ses in industrial Europe were followed by the growth of exports of manufactured goods to England on one hand and the rapid growth of imports of raw materials and foods from the United States and Asian countries,soon.Industrial Europe settled its payments to raw materials and foods with large surplus from England431.Thus Industrial Europe,as Saul has said,contributed to the formation of the world network of multilateral trade and formed an essential part of lt. What we should pay attention to is the role and position of non-or half-industrialized European countries such as Russia. They played important roles as suppliers of raw materials and foods to the industrial Europe and as major buyers of manufactured goods from them.They played the reject primary producers like India within Europe.At the same time,they began to act as more or less industrialized countries too.Inother words,many of them began economic activities as not half-industrialised conutries but as already industrialized capitalist countries with the vast underdeveloped agrarian bases.Sofar as this aspect is concerned,they acted as the importer of primary resources and partly even as the exporter of industrial goods441.In this sense they also contributed to the formation of multilateral trades.Thus very complicated relations of foreign trade,namely the multilateral trade,were being formed between Industrial Europe and the rest of European countries.I will add to this the facts that just the new relations of capital export and import enabled the multilateral settlements within

11

伊藤昌太国際的連関構造の中でみた第一次大戦前夜のロシア経済 11

Continental Europe work smoothly.Then arises a complicated problem. How can we perceive both EuroPeS as a Whole ? It iS

difficult to grasp Continental Europe separatively.It is rather adequate tog「asp Continental Eu「Ope as a unity of multilateral settlements and as a unique part of the world netWO「k Of multilate「at settlements451 However all these changes were still in formative stage during the nineties Of the last century The world pattern of multilateral settlements was not yet established,FO「 example,the gold exchange standard of colonial India was not completed till then461.So we Can Call this Pc「led as a formative period.

second period During this period,not only the world pattern of multirateral SettlementS but also European pattern of multilateral settlements,as a unique part of it,We「e Completed and operated effectively In the following we will investigate only four Count「ieS, namely F「anCe, Germany,Dual Monarchy,and Russia,and their relations only because of focussing Ou「 attention on the main aspect of this period.

First As a fact,many countries alike enjoyed the favorable state of inte「national accounts・①Nearly all countries received large trade surplus from Britain which enabled Continental Eu「Ope to pay off the growing imports of primary resources from the Unitd States and India,So on・②France gained large trade surplus with Germany and enjoyed the ever rising inflow Of into「eStS and dividends from Dual Monarchy,Russia,and Germany respectively471.③Go「many 「eCeiVed t「ado surplus from many countries of Continental Europe other than three countries and lost all ot it by the Import of foods and raw materials mainly from Dual Monarchy,Russia and eve「Seas t「epical countries But the settlements difficulties arising from this trade deficit we「e Sufficiently Offset by the gains from her capital export and well compensated by a large sum of she「t-to「m C「edits f「Om France481④Dual Monarchy was able to offset her deficit,arising from the impo「tot foods and 「aW materials from Russia and tropical countries,and payment of interests toF「anCe and Go「many With trade surplus from Britain and Germany as half-industrialized and half-ag「iCultu「at Count「y・ capital Import from France also improved the settlements difficulties.⑤Russia had to Pay a huge sum of invisible trade deficit as a heavily indebted country,the main pa「t ot Which Consisted Of the Interests and dividends to France491 and in a lesser measure toGermany.But She Was able to Offset this deficit both by the large scale of trade surplus from the expo「t ot foods and 「aW mate「lats to nearly all countries of Europe and by the import of capital from France and even f「Om Go「many, though In a lesser measure. The multilateral settlements within Continental Eu「Ope We「e thus effectively completed501.

second what were the conditions which enabled this pattern of Settlements to WO「k So smoothly ? perhaps innumerable factors might be pointed out。 Here we will Point out only two factors one Is concerned with the aspect of trade cycle.Another is concerned With the St「uCtu「at side of European economy.

The first factor is that both Germany and Dual Monarchy exprienced the 「aPid uP-Swing Oftheir national economies, whereas France and Russia were rather stagnant in thei「 economicactivities5111t is generally known that Russia economy experienced the hardest yea「S f「Om theRusso_Japanese war through the Revolution of 1905 till the economic crisis of 1907 and that inFrance tee the hot debate over the discord between the capital export and the induSt「ieS Was begunby Lysis and Testis just in this period.This cyclical discrepancy of economic activities betweenthese four countries favored the mutual settlements by giving them the COmPlementa「y 「olesconcerning demand and supply of credits as well as goods.

The second factor is that as the results of differentiated capitalistic developments and a Va「iety

12


of system of national economy,European economy,as a whole,had a peculiar structure,in whichFrance played the reject capital supplier and financial center (Parisoccupait dans les reglementsintra-europeens la place qui etait cello do Londres a lechelle-internationale- Levy-Leboyer),Germany playing the reject '''workshop of the Continent',Dual Monarchy taking the intermediaryposition between Germany and Russia as an industrializing country,and Russia playing the reject primary producer,sofar as foreign trade and international financial transactions were concerned. These countries acted within the Continent as if Britain,Industrial Europe,the United States,and India did in the world pattern of settlements respectively.

At the same time,this structure sustained the world pattern of multilatera] settlements, for example,by complementing Britain's economy,as a center of it,in such various ways as financial France supplied geld er short-term credits to London money marketi21,industrial Germany supply_ ing industrial products to her,and half-agricultural Dual Monarchy and Russia serving yet as the suppliers of agricultural products on the one hand,and as contributors to India's accumulation of large trade surplus through buying raw materials from her as mercer jess industrialized country on the other hand_

In the meaning explained above, we can call Continental Europe as a regional unity of the multilateral settlements and locate it as a part of the world pattern of multilateralsettlements.Also in such meaning,it was during this second period that the world pattern of multilateral settlements operated effectively.

Third period As for this period;much was already mentioned in chapter (I) and(II). So I will here make mention of only the conclusive and supplementary points.

In this period,the economies of France and Russia experienced the big booms after the long duration of stagnation or depression531.These booms together with the other factors made Continen_ taj European economy very active.But this state of affairs led not to the strengthening of European economic unity and European pattern of multilateral settlements,but rather to the disintegration of it as many facts showed.French domestic boom was going to weaken her position as a financial center of Continental Europe and stimulated German export drive, thus caused the economic frictions between two countries. Russian pre-war boom also brought not only economic frictions with Germany,caused by her powerful export drive, but also the worsening of trade balance by the decrease of food export,pulled back by growing domestic demand541. Her international accounts were on the verge of co11apse.0nly French financial aids could rescue her from the real ruin551.Dual Monarchy was already in a very difficult condition which would have unquestionably lead to collapse without financial aidsof Germany.A11these tell that Continental Europe lost its former economic solidarity and was breaking up into two blocs,and that such half-industrialized and half-agricul_tural countries as Dual Monarchy and Russia were gradually pushed out of European market by pressures of both sides,namely the competitions of highly industrialized countries like Germany on the one hand and competitions of primary producer countries like India on the other hand.0nly Germany's vigorous industrial power and offensive economic expansion were left behind.

With these changes within Continental Europe the world pattern of multilateral settlements also suffered changes unfavorable to lt. London was gradually losing its financial control power, arising from the delicate machine of financial operations, because of financial disorders, for example,the new struggle for gold within Continental Europe561.In other words;London was now losing a stable ground for its reign all over the world.The world network of multilateral settle_ ments itself was going to suffer from these changes in turn and entered the stage of losing an essential part of lt.

13

伊藤昌太:国際的連関構造の中でみた第一次大戦前夜のロシア経済 13

(tv)

In order to give a conclusion,I will return totwoquestionsoffered in the beginning and anSWe「 them.

First As for the question when the world pattrenof multilateral settlements Was established, the answer is that the years between the economic crisis of 1900 and 1907WaS the Pc「led Of its establishment and that the years just before the First World War were the time Of its declining・ Accordingly,as for the question what is the relation between the War and the Wo「ld netWO「k Of multilateral settlements,we can say that the War occurred as this network was declining,not that the war occurred notwithstanding iter irrelevant to it.We would rather say that the Ve「y declining of this network prepared the War or offered the economic background totheoutb「oak Of the Wa「・

second i wj11gotothe next question what these facts suggest as to the study Of the hiStO「yOf Russia on the eve of the War Generally speaking,it is unconditionally necessa「y tOCOnSide「 the modern history of any country not only separatively on its peculiarities as self-Closing,but also as closely relating each other in international perspective_To the latter side we now add the new Point of view of the multjlateral settlements.This point of view,I think,is indispensable to uncle「Stand the situation of Russia on the eve of the War and throws new lights on many aspects Of it・In the following,I will present a tentative note onone of them as a conclusion.

Russian foreign trade held rather the complementary character in the relation With Go「many, the main partner from the nineties of the last century to about 1906.Russia expo「ted tOGe「many the foods and raw materials,which were necessary to her industries,while Germany expo「ted to Russia the manufactured or half-manufactured goods,which were helpful to he「 induSt「ialiZatiOn and her consumers,on the basis of Russo-German Commercial Treatyof 1894571.

But from about 1906 on when the revision of the treaty was brought into effect,as al「eady stated In previous chapter,Germany drived her export of not only industrial P「OduCtS,but also agricultural products, from which both industrial and agricultural interests Of Russia began to suffer581 On the other hand,Russian corn exports to Germany began tostagge「.Only the expo「tot barley continued growing591.At the same time,Germany began to diminish capital expo「t to Russia owing to her needs for domestic investments. The critical situation of Russian into「national accounts of 1913 and 1914was one result of such German economic offensives. The economic relation between two countries now turned into truly antagonistic One.

Meanwhile France and Britain became more and more suppliers of both t「ade Su「Plus and credits to Russia601.Economic relations with them turned all the more favO「able to he「・

It was lust during this period that in Russia appeared new arguments fo「 the Switch Of the external commercial policy from the pro-German course to the pro-EntentorientatiOn6'1.Some Of them maintained that Germany had compelled Russia to concede much in the negotiation Of 「eViSiOn of the commercial treaty,having taken advantage of Russian unfavorable position du「ing RuSSo- Japanese war and that after the repeal of this unfavorable treaty,Russia should t「y to Pu「Sue a new economic alliance between Entent states.The more powerful these arguments g「eW,the nea「e「 toward the opening of hostilities,with the rise of Germanophobia in the national Sentiments and the

political area621 These arguments in Russia,joining together with those of Entent POWe「S,evolvedInto the plans of an economic alliance between them which were discussed late「 in the Pa「iSEconomic conference of 1916631,though ended in vain.Ail these facts were nothing but the 「efleXtiOnor the results in Russia of the decline of the European pattern of multilateral Settlements・

so far as Russia tries to come back to the normal condition from the critical Situation of

14

14 福島大学教育学部論集第48号 1990- 11

international accounts or chain of endless indebtedness, whether depending on the plans justmentioned or not,it was unconditionally necessary for her to enlarge export and therefore to keepthe Two Channels safely.For other trade routes,for example,those of the Baltic sea or inlandmight be easily cut er closed by hostile Germany,and only the Channels route could assure Russia the exports of foods to countries favorable to her641.However it was just this spot that Germany and Dual Monarchy endeavoured to seize for their economic and politicalexpansjons.In addition to this,both Britain and France - the former for keeping''Empire route''and the latter for herfinancial interests- were paying serious attentions to the territories round the Channels Now a political and military crash between powers became inevitable.Is it impossible to trace the meaning of the decline of the European pattern of multilateral settlements up to this point ?

Notes

1) S.B.Saui,Studies in British Overseas Trade 1870-1914,Liverpool,1960.2) M_Takumi,International Monetary System,Tokyo,1976;A。Yoshioka Typesof Reproduction-creditSystem and the Pound Sterling Ruling in the Formative Period of Imperialism,Agrarian History Societyed.,“Capital and Landowning,'Tokyo,1979:do,Economic History of Modern Britain,Tokyo,1981;HFujise,The Structure of World Trade during the First Thirties of the Twentieth Century,EconomicResearch Center of Nagoya University,Economic Research,No.61,1976;do,The Formation of CapitalistWo「ld,Kyoto,1980 ;H.Fujise ・A_Yoshioka,eds。,The International Gold Standard and Policies of

Central Banks,Nagoya,1987;K。Kuwahara ,T.Inoue・S.Ito,eds.,British Capitalism and ImperialistWorld,Fukuoka,l990.

3) As for the critical reassessments for this thesis,see,A.Yoshioka,The Present Situation and the Methodsof the Study in History of the British Empire,The Methods of Social Science,vol.7,No 8.

4) Saul,0p.cit.,Chap.m.5) Many points of this paper were investigated in my following work.Difficultiesof Russian internationalaccounts and the crisis of European system of multilateral settlements, in 'British Capitalism andImperialist World”.In this paper,I will try to complement and extend its majn points.

6) Brigitte Lehr;for the first time in the study of Russian economic history,pointed out these factsdefinitely.Hers,Die ''Zukunft Russlands'',Stuttgart,1985,S.177-180;Die Bank-Monathefte fj1r Fjnanz_unci Bankwesen,Berlin,II,Semester 1914,S、601-4.

7) B.Lohr,a.a.0_,S.179-180;L.E.Shepelev,Tsarizma i Burzhuaziia v 1904-1914gg.,Leningrad,1987,s.l86-9.

8) For example,according to V.I_Pokrovskii;s work,Russian share in the corn supply to all Europereached almost a half in the late nineteenth century.V_I.Pokrovskii,ed.,Sbornik Svedeniia po Istorjj iStatistike Vneshnei Torgovli Rossii,Tom.I,SPb.;1902.

9) M_N.Sobolev,Tamozhennaia Politika Rossii voVtoroi Po1ovine XIX veka,Tomsk,1911.10) Sh.Tomioka,Russo-German trade during the late nineteenth century to the early twentieth century,

Kobe Municipal University of Foreign Language,Annual Bulletin,No.XXV,1988.11) V_I.BOvykin,K voprosuoroli inostrannogokapitala v Rossii,MGU.,l964,No.I ;R.Gjrault,Empmnts

Russes et Investissements Franf ais on Russie 1887-1914,Parisy1973,pp.122-135.12) S.Ito,The foreign investment in Russia before World War I,in;The Journal of Agrarian History,No,

115,1987,p.18.13) L.Ia_Eventov,Inostrannye Kapitaly v Russkoi Promyshiennosti,Moskva.1931,s.25 ;V.I_Bovykjn,

Rossiia nakanune Belikikh Svershenii,Moskva,1988,s.131-132;0_Crisp,Studies in the Russian Economy

15


before 1914,London,1976,chap。5-8.14) H Lemke,Finanztransaktionen und Aussenpolitik.Berlin 1985,Kapitel 1;B.V.Anan'iCh'S.K.

Levedev, Uchastje vankov v vypuske obligatsii rossiiskikh zheleznodorozhnykh obshchestV (1860-1914gg),'Monopolii i Ekonomicheskaia Politika Tsarizma v kontseXIX-XXv.',Leningrad,1987.As fo「the import of short-term credits,see,for example,S.Ronin_Inostrannyi Kapital i Russkie Banki,MoSkVa,1926,s.129.

15) s ite;The clMTency circulation and the currency reform of 1897 in capitalist Russia.in ;icu「na1ofcommerce,Economics and Economic History,Fukushima University,no.41-6,chap.1;do,Russian StateBank and the gold standard,in“International Gold Standard and Policies of Central Banks''.

16) P H。Lindert,Key Currencies and Gold 1900-1913,Princeton,1969 ;A_I_Bukovetskii,SVObOdnaianaljchnost'j zolotoj zapas tsarskogopraviter'stva v kontse XIX-nachale XXv.,v Monopolii i InOSt「annyiKapjtal v Rossjj'',M_L.,1962;S.Ito,One aspect of the study in Russian imperialism(on the short-to「mgold balance abroad),in ;The Methods of Social Science No.159,1982.

17) Gjrault,0p cjt,p 574;R Poidevin,Les Relations economiques et financieres entre ta France et I'A11emagne do t898-1914,Paris,1969,pp.706-7.

18) p Gregory,Russian National Income,1885-1913,Cambridge,1982 ;S.Ito,Difficulties of Russianinternational accounts and the crisis of European system of international settlements,section3.

19) As for French economy during this period,see the following new article_A_Yosii,The destruction Ofthe equilibrium in trade balance and French capitalism on the eve of the War,in British Capitalism andImperialist World''_

20) A.Yoshioka,0p.cit.,Typeset reproduction=credits system,pp.127-128.21) pojdevjn,0p cjt_,pp.767-773;R_Poidevin et J.Bariety,Les Relations Franco-A11emandes1815-1975,

Paris,1977,pp.203-7.22) For example,see:Annuaire Statistique de ja France annee1911,p.230,annee1913,P.201.23) Saul,0p.cit.,p.54.24) M chiba,French capital export during the period of formation of the financial capital,in;The Bulletin

of Ajch University of Education,Part I,No.23,1974,pp.186-7;M.Levy-Leboyer,La balance dos paimentSet I'exportation dos capitaux franf ais, La Position Internationale,''pp_134-6_

25) There arose soto speak,'two needs for every Franc';between not only industry and bank,but alsoFrance and Russia.See,GiraultOp.cit.,pp.533-562,568-575.

26) G Martin,Les Finances publiques de ja France et la Fortune privee1914-1925,Paris,1925 Chap。I,II, 27) Pojdevjn,0p cjt,pp.630-5;do;Placements franfais et investissements on A11emagne1898-1914,in 'La

position Internationale de ja France'';B.Miche1,Les capitaux fran'ais on Autriche au debut du XIX(xx?)siecle,in 'La Position'';G.Ranki,Le capital franfais on Hongrie,in'La Position'';R_K「obOth,Die Fjnanzpoljtjk dos Deutsche Reiches wahrend der Reichskanzlerschaft Beethmann Hot]wogs und dieGeld_unci Kapitalmarktverhaltnisse1909-1913/14,Frankfurt a.M.,1986,S.53-59;M.Takumi,0P.Cit.,PP.285-288.

28) pojdevjn named the titles of chapters concerning this aspect as 'Uneere do difficultes''or 'Multiplica-tion dos rivalites clans monde”、0p.cit,,Les Relation,Partie IV.

29) Takumi,0p.cit.,pp.279,290;305-6.30) N Harumj,.German foreign trade and world market during the formative period of imperialism,in thejournal The Study of Occidental History”,New Series,No.8,1979;H.Fujise,The structure of Germaneconomic relations with the foreign countries and Reichsbank,in ℃apital and Landowning ;YoshiOka,0p_cit.,Memoir,pp.616-627.

31) L Brentano,Die deutschen Getreidezo11e 3 Aft_,Stuttgart u_Berlin,1925;S_Ito,The Paris Economic

16


Conference June,1916 and Russian Commercial Policy before and during World War I (Part2),Bulletinof the Faculty of Education,Fukushima University,Social Sciences,No.30.

32) See fig.2.There are large differences between trade statistics of both countries as to the trade balance.As a result of these differences,German statistics show large deficit as to the trade with Russia on the eveof the War,whereas Russian statistics also indicate the deficit.This gap arises from the different waysof registration in two countries_Germany registers Russian goods through Netherland as import fromRussia,whereas Russia counts imports from other countries via Germany into the imports from Germanyand excludes the exports to Germany through Netherland from the exports to Germany_So we can notidentify the real data.Russian data seem rather exaggerated.But that of Germany also,I think,does notreflect the real balance.As expedient,adding the half of Russian exports to Netherland to those toGermany,we will be able to approximate real pos1tion.Data,gained from this expedient,show that thetrade balance between both countries turned adverse just in 1913 to 1914.B.Vogel,Deutsche Russlan-dpolitik,Dusseldorf,1973;S.66-8;L.Pasvolsky and H.Moulton,Russian Debts and Russian Reconstruc-tion,New York,1924,pp.77,82;Sh.Tomioka,World market and Russian agriculture,in H.0saki ed.Studies in Russian Imperialism,Kyoto,1989;Statistika vneshnei torgovli,v Massovye Istochniki pc

Sotsia「no-ekonomicheskoi Istorii Rossii Perioda Kapitalizma,Moskva,1979,s.346-381.33) H,Feis,Europe the World's Banker,1870-1914,1930,chap.m_34) M_0htsu,German imperialism and capital export,in British Capitalism and Imperialist World',

section3;do,German investments in foreign securities 1883-1914,in the Journal nThe Study of OccidentalHistory,New Series,No.14;A.Yoshioka,0p_cit., Typeset reproduction-credit system'',section (6);Takumi,0p.cit_,pp.71-73;A.I.B1oomfield Short-term Capital Movement under the Pre-1914 GoldStandard,Princeton,1963.

35) See note (27)and Bloomfield,0p.cit.,pp.41,68,86;Kroboth,a.a.0.,S.51-60.36) Ohtsu,0p.cit.,German investments,pp.17-25;Lehr,a.a.0.,S.108-110,116-7.37) Poidevin,0p.cit_,Les Relations pp.794-5;Poidevin et Bariety,0p.cit_,pp_205-7;0htsu,0p.cit.,

German imperialism,section3_38) Yoshioka,0p.cit_,Typeset reproduction-credit system,pp.129-30_39) M_Sate,Tariff-and foreign trade policy and crisis of International Accounts in Austia-Hungaryon the

eve of World War I ,in 'British Capitalism and Imperialist World'';do,Central Bank policy in AustriaHungary and the world market in The International Gold Standard and Policies of Central Banks'';S.

Minamizuka,Studies in History of Eastern Europe,Kyoto,1979,Part4,chap.2;R_Rudolph,Banking andIndustrialization in Austria-Hungary,Cambridge,l976,chap_1,6.

40) M_Sate,0p.cit.Tariff-and foreign trade policy,Section 4;Poidevin,0p_cit.,Les Relations,pp.630-6.

41) M_Sate,0p.cit.,Tariff-and foreign trade policy,p.453;0htsu,0p.cit.,German investments,pp.24-25.

42) Takumi,0p_cit.,Introduction and chap.3_43) Saul,0p_cit.,chap.III-3.4.44) Both Dual Monarchy and Russia in fact increased their imports from India in a great measure.45) Countries of Continental Europe held yet far larger share in both foreign trades and financial trans-

actions each other in sharp contrast with those of Britain.46) T_Inoue,The Indian Gold-Exchange Standard and Finance Capital of the City of London,in Journal

The Studyof Occidental History'',New Series,No.2,1973.47) M_Levy-Leboyer,La capacite financlere de ja France au debut du XXe siecle, La Position Inter-

nationale',p,27.

17


48) Fujise,0p.cit.,The Formation of Capitalist World,pp.220;do,0p.cit.,The structure of Germaneconomic relations,pp.156-162.

49) Saul,0p cjt.,p.51;Ito,Difficulties of Russian international accounts,p.485;Levy-Leboyer,0p_cit_,p.28.

50) See note46).Poidevin called the financial aspect of this cooperative period as 'Ententes financieres”orrapprochementeconomique et financier'_0p.cit.,partie II,chapitre II-V.

51) As for Germany,L.A.Mende1'son,Teoriia i Isotriia eponomicheskikh Krizisov i Tsik1ov,Tom 3,Moskva,1964;T.Iwami,History of Economic Crisis in Germany,Tokyo,1985;Yoshioka,0p.cit.,Typesof reproduction_credit,p_129;Kroboth,a_a.0.,Kapitel 2.Regarding Dual Monarchy,M.Soat,0p_cit.,Central Bank Policy;Minamizuka,0p.cit_As for France Mendel;son,0p.cit_;Yosii,0p.cit.;Section4;as to Russia,H.Nakayama,Russian Empire and the Foreign Capital Tokyo,1988 ;V.I.Bovykin,Formjrovanie Finansovogokapitala v Rossii konetsXIX v-1908g.,Moskva,1984;Ito,0p.cit.,Difficultiesof Russian international accounts,Section2;I.F.Gindin,Russkie Kommercheskie Banki,Moskva,1948,G1.III,IV.

52) A.I_Bloomfield,Monetary Policy under the International Gold Standard 1880-1914,New York,1959,chap.3;Takumi,0p.cit.;Yoshioka,0p,cit.,Typeset reproduction=credit system,pp.104-110,127-8;L-evy-Leboyer,0p.cit_?Le capacite financiare de ja France;p.27.

53) Besides works,cited in note(51),see Fujise,0p.cit.,The formation of Capitalist World,p.241;Shepelev,0p_cit_,Vvedenie,i G.1.3.

54) As for the decrease of food export under the pressure of growing domestic demand,see P.I.Lyashchen-ko,Russkoe Zernovoe Khoziaistvo,Moskva,l927.

55) We should pay attention to the fact that French financial aids were now concentrated in the form ofstock company investment,because Russian government restrained the issue of state securities in view ofthe difficulties of state budget.So,only the high dividend of Russian companies could secure the Frenchinvestments.Russian economic boom guaranteed it for a while_However,the endeavour of Russiancanitalists to raise the rate of profit results in the extension of labour exploitation_Workers after 1905Revolution did not hesitate to resist it_New waves of labour movement beginning from 1912 were the cleartestimony of this sjtuation.Thus Russian capitalism faced the serious situation 'in the years just beforethe First World War.

56) Takumj,0p.cjt.,Chap.2-2;T.Inoue,The economic structure of British Empire and the pound sterlingruling,in 'British Capitalism and Imperialist World”,pp.211-2_

57) sh Ito,The Germane-Russian commercial antagonism and Commercial Treatyof 1894,in Journal ''TheStudy of Occidental History”,New Series No.1,1972.

58) As for industrial interests,monopolies had been already established in many sectors of industriesthrough unusually strengthened developments during the nineties of the last century and the long durationof depression after the economic crisis of 1900.They began now with ever growing eagerness to demandto protect their monopolistic rule over domestic market from German competitions.See,Shope「ev,0p_cit.,GI_IV.As for agricultural interests,we would pay attention to the symbolic fact that German exportof rye to Russia exceeded that of Russia to Germany just in 1912-13.

59) Tomioka,0p.cit.;World market and Russian agriculture_60) As for France,Girault,0p.cit_;Emprunts Russeet Investissements Franeais on Russie,Chapitre Il-II;

Hirosi Nakayama,Le Role du Marche Financier Parisien d'apres I'Exemple dos Valeurs Russes 1890-1913,Thise pour le Doctorat do Troisieme Cycle,Paris,Nanterre,1982,PartieII-chapitreVI-Vll.As for Britain,A.B.Ignat'ev,Russko-Angliiskie otnosheniia,Moskva,1962.

61) B.Bonwetsch,Kriegsallianz unci Wirtshaftsinteressen,Dtisseldorf,1973,Sh.Ito,0p.cit.,The Paris

18


Economic Conference,Part i,1977.62) I.V.Bestuzhev,Bor'ba v Rossii po voprosam vneshnei politiki nakanune pervoi mirovoi veiny 1910-

1914gg.,Istoricheskie Zapiski,T.75,1965,dofOsnovnye aspekty vneshnei politiki Rossii nakanune Iiu1'-skogoKrizisa (fevra「-iiun'1914g。),in Pervaia Mirovaia Voina'',Moskva,1968_

63) See note 61)_64) Sh_Ito,Navy,foreign policy and economy in Russia during the years preceding the First World War

(Part i_2),The Historical Journal of Fukushima University,No.46・47(Part i),1989,No.50(Part2),1990_

Summary

Russian Economy on the Eve of the First World Warin International Perspective- A Tentative Note-

Shota IT0

The thesis,proposed by S.B.Sau1,of the world pattern of multilateral trades and settlements seems tome the most excellent and substantial contribution to the study of the

world economic history in the age of imperialism.However,there are many points in his thesis which need revision not only in some details,but also in its framework.The most serious of these problems is how the establishment of this network relates to the outbreak of the First World War.

In this paper,I tried to point out many economic changes both in Russia and in Continental Europe including her as a part of it on the eve of the War.Then I showed these changes indicating the transformation process of the international pattern of settlements. And I considered some aspects concerning the relations between this transformation process and the outbreak of the War.

As a conclusion,I confirmed the importance and necessity to study Russian history on the eve of the War in international perspective or from the point of view that Russian economy was an inseparative part of Continental European economy_The point of view of the multilateral settlements seems tome to throw new effective lights on this problem.

Russian Economy on the Eve of the First World War …...1...

Documents

Transcript of Russian Economy on the Eve of the First World War …...1...